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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $24,000
Win: #1 Can’t Say That (93% confidence)🥈
Place: #3 Definitely Prbable (71% confidence)🥉
Show: #2 Bear’s Board (43% confidence)
Alternative: #4 Jewlz (36% confidence)
Notes: Pick Pony analysts overwhelming back Can’t Say That in the win position after she ran competitively in her recent outings. The even-paced filly should relish the two-turn mile after struggling to keep pace in sprints. The stretch-out combined with the class relief creates favorable conditions. Definitely Prbable drops in grade and figures to improve off a disappointing recent effort. Bear’s Board stretches out for the first time and must compete with similar stretch-out runners. Pace setup appears moderate with multiple horses capable of pressing early, favoring patient runners in the stretch.
Race 2 – Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $18,000
Win: #3 City Of Angels (100% confidence)🥈
Place: #2 Naismith (36% confidence)
Show: #1 Gentlemen’s Club (29% confidence)Alternative: #6 Typhoon Tommy (21% confidence)
Notes: City Of Angels receives universal backing from Pick Pony analysts after the dramatic plunge in class from turf sprint company. Transitions from turf to dirt and has never raced this low, creating uncertainty around whether the drop signals a training change or problem. Naismith garners secondary support despite uneven recent form but has accumulated multiple placings in this preparation. Toppers At Seaside won impressively two starts back but suffered a tough defeat last out in a fast-pace race. The race features competing pace dynamics that could benefit different running styles.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $33,000 WIN + TRIFECTA
Win: #3 Kid Charlemagne (93% confidence)🥇
Place: #1 Classico (71% confidence)🥈
Show: #5 Another Juanito (57% confidence)🥉
Alternative: #4 Kiki Ride (14% confidence)
Notes: Kid Charlemagne dominates analyst selections for his first start in maiden claiming company after stakes experience on turf. The class drop and return to dirt present opportunities for meaningful improvement. Classico merits secondary consideration with strong trainer-jockey connections and recent placings at this level. Another Juanito shows promise despite a lengthy layoff and finished second in his last start. The pedigree suggests the mile distance suits multiple horses in this competitive maiden field.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $20,000
Win: #3 Eastwick (50% confidence)🥈
Place: #2 Divine Wind (50% confidence)
Show: #8 Aloha Dreamin (43% confidence)🥇
Alternative: #1 Tupelo (50% confidence)
Notes: This race presents unusual consensus difficulty with Eastwick, Divine Wind, and Tupelo splitting analyst opinion nearly evenly for the win. Eastwick was narrowly beaten as a heavy favorite last start with multiple placings this preparation. Divine Wind makes her California debut after an extended layoff and impressive training efforts. Tupelo finished second in her recent dirt start and shows trainer consistency with maiden-breaking favorites. Aloha Dreamin returns from an 18-month absence with quality prior form. The $51,879 pick six carryover beginning in this race adds significance to wagering decisions.
Race 5 – Cal-Bred Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $16,000 WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: #6 Amelia’s Echo (69% confidence)🥇
Place: #9 Dixie’s Delight (62% confidence)🥉
Show: #7 Que Bella Luna (23% confidence)🥈
Alternative: #8 Smiling Rapper (23% confidence)
Notes: Amelia’s Echo edges Dixie’s Delight for the win in the consensus, though both receive strong analyst support for this rock-bottom maiden claiming sprint. Amelia’s Echo has accumulated impressive speed figures despite 10 career starts without a win, suggesting imminent breakthrough is likely. Dixie’s Delight receives strong place support and gets a favorable rider change to Juan Hernandez. The short 5.5-furlong distance combined with maiden claiming conditions creates a pace-favoring scenario. Que Bella Luna returns from a near-yearlong absence after steady training.
Race 6 – Claiming, 7 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $26,000
Win: #4 Freya (85% confidence)
Place: #2 Headstrong Ways (69% confidence)
Show: #6 Severe Clear (38% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Exington (23% confidence)
Notes: Freya receives strong analyst support for the win in this competitive claiming sprint, though Headstrong Ways shows significant place support after a recent runner-up finish. Freya transitions to dirt from turf and has shown competitive figures suggesting she handles the surface switch. Headstrong Ways improved notably when switching to dirt two starts back, with recent improved form pointing to continued improvement. Severe Clear returns from a nine-week spell after winning at a lower level. The seven-furlong distance suits multiple horses in this field, creating interesting value opportunities.
Race 7 – Cal Bred Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $61,000 WIN
Win: #7 Christel Clean (100% confidence)🥇
Place: #6 Don’t Ju Forget (50% confidence)
Show: #4 Rizzleberry Rose (57% confidence)🥈
Alternative: #3 Timekeeper’s Charm (43% confidence)
Notes: Christel Clean receives universal analyst backing for this important allowance optional claiming feature. The filly has won or placed in all three career starts and has already earned qualifying speed figures for this level. Despite her favoritism, structural improvements to post position on the redraw and a better trip should enable improvement from her recent runner-up finish. Don’t Ju Forget won this exact condition two starts back and retains viability, though recent turf effort was disappointing. Rizzleberry Rose sits on peak effort making the third start of her form cycle. Timekeeper’s Charm broke her maiden impressively and faces winners for the first time.
Race 8 – Native Diver Stakes – Grade 3, 1 1/8 Miles, Dirt, Purse $100,000 WIN
Win: #3 Nevada Beach (100% confidence)🥇
Place: #1 Indispensable (77% confidence)
Show: #2 Westwood (54% confidence)🥉Alternative: #5 Clouseau (8% confidence)
Notes: Nevada Beach receives universal analyst support as the expected heavy favorite after winning a Grade 1 two starts ago. Despite finishing seventh in the Breeders Cup Classic three weeks prior, that effort was better than it appeared as the colt encountered traffic issues on the far turn. The lightly-raced sophomore possesses tactical speed and has worked twice since the BC, indicating readiness. Indispensable merits strong place consideration with strong Del Mar affinity (2 wins, 1 second from 3 starts). Westwood moved up in class from maiden ranks with back-to-back runner-up finishes. The pace scenario should moderate with Nevada Beach likely to control tempo.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $60,000
Win: #3 Blacksmith (92% confidence)
Place: #2 Diaghilev (46% confidence)
Show: #7 Cactus Charlie (23% confidence)🥉
Alternative: #9 Secured Freedom (38% confidence)
Notes: Blacksmith overwhelmingly dominates analyst selections for his second career start after an exceptionally rated runner-up debut at even-money. The $525,000 Keenland purchase earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure while finishing six lengths clear of third, suggesting maiden-breaking capability in this field. Multiple works since that effort indicate trainer Bob Baffert has the colt primed for today. Baffert also entered two other promising first-time starters, including back-to-back bullet works from Authentic Patriot. Cactus Charlie has been knocking on the door with three placings from four starts. Diaghilev disappointed as a recent favorite but should improve with another start.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Race 1 Exacta Wheels: Pick Pony analysts recommend boxing Can’t Say That with Definitely Prbable, Bear’s Board, and Jewlz. The class relief and distance change create uncertainty in finishing order despite clear favorite preference.
Race 2 Value Consideration: While City Of Angels receives unanimous support, the extreme class drop combined with a surface change warrants defensive measures in exotics. Include Naismith and Toppers At Seaside to capture potential upset values.
Race 3 Trifecta: Pick Pony analysts recommend stacking Kid Charlemagne on top with Classico and Another Juanito in the second position and Classico, Another Juanito, and Kiki Ride in the third. The mile distance suits stretch runners.
Race 4 Pick 6 Continuation: With three horses receiving roughly equal analyst support, spread across Eastwick, Divine Wind, Tupelo, and Aloha Dreamin. This flexibility maximizes chances to continue the carryover.
Race 5 Exacta: Analysts suggest reversible exactas between Amelia’s Echo and Dixie’s Delight given the short sprint distance and maiden claiming level uncertainty.
Race 6 Horizontal Play: This race shows competitive balance making it ideal for multi-race sequence inclusion. Use Freya and Headstrong Ways across multiple ticket types.
Race 7 Win Bet Best: Christel Clean emerges as a consensus best bet for the day at expected favorable odds given the focus on larger plays. The unanimous analyst backing and favorable post position create compelling value.
Race 8 Safety Play: Nevada Beach shows overwhelming dominance despite expected heavy favoritism. Include Indispensable and Westwood in late multi-race sequences given the Grade 3 stakes difficulty.
Race 9 Late Pick 3 (Races 7-9): Analysts recommend singling Christel Clean in Race 7 and Nevada Beach in Race 8 while spreading in Race 9 across Blacksmith, Diaghilev, Cactus Charlie, and Secured Freedom to maximize chances at favorable payoffs despite heavy favorite dominance.
Late Pick 4 Recommendation: Link races 6-9 using strategic spreading in Races 6 and 9 while singling preferred selections in the higher-stakes races. Use Freya and Headstrong Ways in Race 6, single Christel Clean in Race 7, single Nevada Beach in Race 8, and spread across Blacksmith and Diaghilev in Race 9.
Pick 6 Strategy: With the carryover approaching $52,000 at Race 4, analysts recommend maintaining flexibility through Races 4 and 5 while concentrating selections in Races 6-9 where consensus opinions are strongest. This approach balances carryover chase objectives with realistic winning probabilities.
