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RACE 1 (Maiden Special Weight, 1M Dirt, $54,000)
Win: 6-Stella Guitar (29%)
Place: 2-Mo Echos (29%)
Show: 3-Running Faith (25%)
Alternative: 4-Sweet Aurora G (25%)
This maiden race features first-time starters and limited early form. Mo Echos and Stella Guitar are the consensus choices with equal analyst support. Mo Echos makes his debut for trainer Wayne Catalano with jockey Jareth Loveberry, while Stella Guitar returns after an 11-week break from Churchill Downs, having finished 10th in her only start. Running Faith represents an interesting third choice, as does Sweet Aurora G who finished sixth at Fair Grounds in her only start. Rainy Day and Cause We Can are wild card options if the pace gets away from the frontrunners.
RACE 2 (Claiming, 6F Dirt, $16,000)
Win: 2-Starry Eyed (57%)
Place: 4-Final Half (43%)
Show: 7-Silent Breeze (40%)
Alternative: 8-Louisiana Wildlife (20%)
Strong consensus develops around Starry Eyed, who captured most of the vote from Pick Pony analysts. This horse finished second at Louisiana Downs and shows consistent form as a Fastest Leader type. Final Half also draws substantial support as a returning winner after 37 weeks off, breaking maiden at Fair Grounds with promising form. Silent Breeze and Angelic Knight offer compelling claims for place money, with both showing recent winners’ credentials. Louisiana Wildlife brings value with prior Fair Grounds success and should command respect at 6-1.
RACE 3 (Maiden Claiming, 1M Turf, $22,000)
Win: 2-Cloudy Lass (71%)
Place: 6-War Belle (38%)
Show: 8-Truly An Honor (49%)
Alternative: 5-Tia Lupe (33%)
Cloudy Lass emerges as the standout choice with over 70% analyst support. This filly has finished in the money in three straight starts but disappointed when favored at Hawthorne. War Belle, a first-time starter, generates secondary support and draws interest with her sharp trainer in Stidham. Vienna Waits earns consideration as a rail-drawn first starter, though her status as a debut runner adds risk. The turf distance over one mile favors horses with tactical prowess and late-running ability given Fair Grounds’ unique composition.
RACE 4 (Starter Optional Claiming, 6F Dirt, $19,000)
Win: 4-Twofexusnexus (25%)
Place: 6-We Miss Arlington (43%)
Show: 3-Charco (80%)
Alternative: 7-Boss’ Dialin In (53%)
This race lacks consensus with three horses receiving equal support. Twofexusnexus comes off a maiden-breaking victory at Fair Grounds when fresh, making him a logical choice. We Miss Arlington has bounced around Fair Grounds with four career placements but remains winless at the track, though he presents excellent value and appears capable of breaking through. Charco merits consideration after finishing second at Lafayette with a recent win at Fairmount Park in this prep. Gavel and Boss’ Dialin In offer closing speed potential.
RACE 5 (Allowance, 5.5F Turf, $55,000)
Win: 4-I’m Mo Joke (62%)
Place: 5-Debt Free (43%)
Show: 8-Biles (50%)
Alternative: 7-Spinning Glory (57%)
I’m Mo Joke dominates analyst picks with 62% support, having broken maiden at Churchill Downs and showing flying recent form after a 25-week break. This horse gets Paco Lopez aboard and connects with trainer Joe Sharp, a strong combination. Debt Free and Biles both carry credentials worth considering for exotic play, with Debt Free showing recent Churchill Downs form and Biles presenting fast-closer profile after winning at Woodbine three races back. The turf surface at 5.5 furlongs should reward tactical speed and late-running ability given the track’s particular turf characteristics.
RACE 6 (Starter Optional Claiming, 6F Dirt, $20,000)
Win: 3-Slam Diego (62%)
Place: 2-Diamonds Joy (29%)
Show: 7-Save The Queen (56%)
Alternative: 10-Berlaine (59%)
Slam Diego attracts dominant support with 62% of analyst votes. This mare returns from a 10-week break after winning at Remington Park and shapes as the morning-line favorite. Diamonds Joy enters consideration after 22 weeks away and shows strong Fair Grounds form, making her a logical second choice. Berlaine, meanwhile, brings impressive Fair Grounds credentials with five career wins at the track and represents strong value after 38 weeks away. Save The Queen could offer late-running value if pace sets up favorably, though she disappointed as favorite in her last start.
RACE 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming, 5.5F Turf, $56,000)
Win: 1-Built (38%)
Place: 9-Vacation Dance (78%)
Show: 11-Save The Trees (40%)
Alternative: 4-Monsieur Candy (25%)
Built generates the strongest consensus at 38%, returning off a 30-week break with favorable inside-post positioning. This horse showed strong recent efforts and pairs with trainer Catalano and jockey Jose Ortiz, an accomplished combination for turf racing. Go Captain and Monsieur Candy split secondary support, with Go Captain beaten nine lengths in his last try at Churchill Downs. Vacation Dance earned recent success at Aqueduct and cannot be dismissed. The 5.5-furlong turf distance at Fair Grounds typically rewards tactical speed and inside-post advantages, favoring horses able to secure good early positions without expending excessive energy on the tight oval.
RACE 8 (Claiming, 6F Dirt, $15,000)
Win: 8-Emilyhasherturn (50%)
Place: 10-Honor His Half (67%)
Show: 2-Alexaplayborntorun (38%)
Alternative: 7-Daisy De Oro (30%)
Emilyhasherturn commands strong support with 50% of analysts behind her, despite returning from a 41-week absence. She was narrowly beaten as favorite in her last Fair Grounds start and merits respect in this lower-level claiming event. Honor His Half represents an outstanding play for exotic wagers with 67% confidence in place/show finishes, given his track specialty status with two career victories at Fair Grounds. Alexaplayborntorun and Zipping Molly offer closing-speed threats, while Copper Moon and Daisy De Oro could factor if pace sets up favorably for off-pace runners.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
The Late Pick 4 covering races 5 through 8 presents compelling wagering opportunities given the confidence levels in Race 5 and Race 6. I’m Mo Joke and Slam Diego both command strong analyst consensus and should anchor multi-race tickets. Consider stacking these power horses with flexible coverage in races 7 and 8 where consensus breaks down more significantly.
Race 2 offers value in an exacta pairing between the consensus choice Starry Eyed and Final Half, who drew substantial secondary support. This combination should produce generous mutual payoffs given the wagering patterns likely to develop.
Race 3 presents a compelling Pick Pony consensus play on Cloudy Lass, whose 71% analyst backing significantly exceeds any other race on the card. War Belle warrants consideration for exacta and trifecta purposes despite being a first-time starter, as the analyst community recognizes her trainer credentials and rail positioning.
Race 4 requires spreading across the three evenly-supported contenders, making trifecta play more attractive than exacta work. The show pool should offer exceptional value given Charco’s 80% confidence rating combined with relatively balanced win picks, suggesting public action may not adequately reflect her closing threat.
For Race 6, Slam Diego’s 62% consensus advantage should translate to exacta play with second-choice horses. Diamonds Joy and Berlaine both merit consideration as place horses, though they receive minimal win support, potentially creating mutual pool inefficiencies for horizontal sequences.
Race 7 and Race 8 call for selective exotic placement given the lack of dominant consensus. Built in Race 7 with 38% support offers sound anchoring for combination plays, while Emilyhasherturn at 50% in Race 8 provides reasonable confidence for multi-race sequences without the overwhelming public support that could suppress odds significantly.
