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Race 1 – Claiming – 1323Y Dirt – 12:45pm WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: Mamba Out (50%)🥇
Place: Eagle Express (29%)🥉
Show: Honor His Half (18%)🥈
Alternative: Rumpus (3%)
Several Pick Pony analysts highlight that Mamba Out shows steady form and holds a narrow edge for win. Eagle Express is consistently rated for place and exotics. Honor His Half is a steady presence for third based on previous Fair Grounds wins. If the race becomes tactical, Rumpus could prove value as the alternative selection.
Race 2 – Claiming – 1323Y Dirt – 1:15pm BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: Scooteria (37%)Place: Munnings Catsle (31%)🥈
Show: Twofexusnexus (20%)🥇
Alternative: Catalina Day (12%)🥉
Scooteria is favored by most analysts for the win, while Munnings Catsle is repeatedly mentioned for place and solid exotics usage. Twofexusnexus is the next closest consensus show pick. Catalina Day has enough support from analysts to round out the alternative position and is noted for reliability when fresh.
Race 3 – Claiming – 8F Dirt – 1:45pm
Win: Certified Gem (51%)
Place: Gypsan (19%)
Show: Lily’s Creed (14%)
Alternative: Edgerton (10%)
Edgerton enters the consensus finish after strong backing from Scott Shapiro as a prime overlay with class relief. Certified Gem is a stable top pick among most analysts. Gypsan and Lily’s Creed are frequently mentioned for in-the-money finishes, with Gypsan slightly favored for place. Analysts suggest using Edgerton liberally in exotics.
Race 4 – Claiming – 8F Turf – 2:15pm
Win: Skipper’s Pride (45%)
Place: Contemplation (29%)
Show: Mailman Money (19%)
Alternative: Gorilla Trek (7%)
Analysts mostly agree on this race’s top three. Skipper’s Pride is strong on form and receives the highest level of support for win. Contemplation and Mailman Money have repeated mentions for place and show, respectively. Gorilla Trek rates as a value alternative for deeper horizontal plays.
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming – 8F 66Y Dirt – 2:45pm
Win: Prince Day (37%)
Place: El Maximo (34%)
Show: Penei (17%)
Alternative: Gold Gunner (12%)
Prince Day and El Maximo appear near equal in consensus probability. Penei gains confidence with added analyst support and is considered a solid show pick for trifecta and superfecta players. Gold Gunner is the next best, with value angles noted in exotics.
Race 6 – Starter Optional Claiming – 8F Turf – 3:15pm
Win: Roar Of Silence (32%)
Place: Desert Glow (30%)
Show: Serene Kathleen (26%)
Alternative: Im Singled Up (12%)
Analysts suggest Roar Of Silence is the best win prospect, but both Desert Glow and Serene Kathleen are gaining attention for place and show due to their recent efforts. Im Singled Up is also respected for exotics and can hit the board if pace is honest.
Race 7 – Andrew Ney Memorial Stakes – 1323Y Dirt – 3:45pm
Win: Little Miss Curlin (39%)
Place: Liteupthenite (25%)
Show: Not On Herb (18%)
Alternative: Wickedwithbourbon (13%)
Consensus sees Little Miss Curlin as the clear win candidate. Liteupthenite has broad place support and enters most exactas as the runner-up. Not On Herb receives a notable boost from Scott Shapiro and now ranks as the consensus show pick, best used beneath win and place options. Wickedwithbourbon retains value as an alternative entry.
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight – 1214Y Turf – 4:15pm
Win: Nelson’s Penny (47%)
Place: Stress Test (24%)
Show: Acquazurra (15%)
Alternative: Wooten Warrior (7%)
Nelson’s Penny remains a popular expected winner, with Stress Test favored for the runner-up spot. Acquazurra lands third, while Wooten Warrior is slightly preferred as an alternative for bettors seeking value in multis or trifectas. Most analysts see limited separation between top selections.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight – 1323Y Dirt – 4:45pm
Win: Mister Banderas (44%)
Place: Free Scrim (21%)
Show: Letmikefigureitout (18%)
Alternative: Shot Gun Shack (10%)
Mister Banderas is the consensus top choice. Free Scrim gets a boost as several analysts favor his exotics potential. With Scott Shapiro’s support, Letmikefigureitout joins the consensus as a primary candidate for the show, offering significant upside. Shot Gun Shack retains enough mentions to hold down the alternative slot for deeper exotics.
Interesting Race Notes and Analysis
- Edgerton (Race 3) is seen by Pick Pony analysts as a class-drop overlay, making him a smart inclusion in exotics, where some favorites appear vulnerable.
- In the Andrew Ney Memorial (Race 7), Not On Herb should be watched closely for well-timed jockey moves, with experience and trainer intent cited as reasons for his enhanced prospects. Pace scenarios could favor a closer if the frontrunner faces pressure.
- Letmikefigureitout (Race 9) is described as a live overlay in a wide-open field, with a trainer-stat angle and tactical speed giving him every chance to hit the board at above-par odds.
- Penei and Free Scrim are regarded as essential for multi-race tickets and value-driven vertical wagers, especially if favorites underperform.
Exotic Bets and Value Recommendations
- Edgerton for value in all vertical and horizontal exotics in Race 3.
- Not On Herb for tri/superfecta combinations in Race 7.
- Letmikefigureitout is a top value play when combined with Mister Banderas and Free Scrim in race-ending exotics.
- Free Scrim and Penei should be anchored in Pick 4/5 tickets for potentially profitable results.
Pick Pony analysts recommend keeping an eye on late odds movement for horses with positive layoff and class-drop signals, as these factors can be decisive in competitive fields.
