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Race 1 – Claiming – 1 Mile – $17,800
Win: 2-Skippy Town (50%)
Place: 5-Three Point Strut (80%)🥉
Show: 3-Prophetic (50%)🥈
Alternative: 6-Brown Don’t Stop (40%)🥇
Pick Pony analysts are divided between Skippy Town and Brown Don’t Stop for the win, but Three Point Strut draws overwhelming support for a place finish. Skippy Town returns from freshening at a reduced claiming level with rail draw advantage. Brown Don’t Stop has been racing at higher levels but was beaten easily at Belmont last start. Three Point Strut has strong form at this track and distance with multiple wins at Finger Lakes. Prophetic’s last race on an off track should be forgiven according to multiple analysts.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile – $13,500
Win: 1-Dignified Response (70%)
Place: 5-Ex Machina (80%)🥈
Show: 2-Solomini’s Legacy (60%)🥉
Alternative: 3-Ten Run Rule (20%)
Pick Pony analysts show strong consensus for Dignified Response in this weak maiden field. Dignified Response benefits from the rail draw and should run fitter for past attempts. Ex Machina showed promise with a placed finish and the longer trip suits better. Solomini’s Legacy drops in class which helps chances. King Of The World also drops in class but draws less support. Analysts note this race may not provide reliable form reference.
Race 3 – Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs – $17,800
Win: 6-Goodys Girl (33%)🥈
Place: 5-Zhen Lou (78%)
Show: 3-Marilyn’s NY Pride (44%)🥇
Alternative: 1-Tale Of The Tail (33%)
Analysts are divided on the win position between Goodys Girl, Zhen Lou, and Marilyn’s NY Pride in this competitive fillies and mares claiming race. Zhen Lou comes off a win at Finger Lakes and is a track specialist with multiple wins. Goodys Girl returns from letup with outstanding track form but poor recent results. Marilyn’s NY Pride appears tough to beat at the price. Tale Of The Tail returns from freshening with very strong Finger Lakes form.
Race 4 – Allowance – 8.5 Furlongs – $24,500 WIN + EXACTA
Win: 4-Berning Beauty (67%)🥇
Place: 6-Sorority Prank (67%)🥈
Show: 5-Skyler’s Starship (67%)
Alternative: 2-Stars N Stones (44%)
Strong consensus forms around Berning Beauty for the win in this allowance contest. Pick Pony analysts find it difficult to imagine one of the top two not winning. Berning Beauty has strong recent form with three wins at Finger Lakes and the late-running style suits. Sorority Prank stretches back out to better distance as track specialist with three wins at Finger Lakes. Skyler’s Starship was second last start and goes up in distance. Stars N Stones attempts this distance for first time.
Race 5 – Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs – $18,000 WIN
Win: 3-Play Good Pay Good (44%)🥇
Place: 4-Bayou Melody (56%)
Show: 7-Princess Cairo (44%)🥉
Alternative: 2-Violent Vixen (44%)
Analysts find it hard to split selections in this wide-open sprint. Play Good Pay Good has faced better company and takes a winning drop with strong support. Bayou Melody was narrowly beaten when backed last start and is in strong form with two wins from seven attempts. Princess Cairo has multiple wins at Finger Lakes and two wins from eight attempts this campaign. Violent Vixen returns from letup with outstanding track form. Shesawildjoker also has faced better company.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs – $32,000 WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 4-Chioke (55%)🥇
Place: 5-Connect And Cruise (64%)🥉
Show: 8-Spanimax (64%)🥈
Alternative: 1-Pauper King (18%)
Chioke draws strong support as most experienced runner in this below-standard maiden field. Chioke has two placings from five runs and represents capable connections with Ralph D’alessandro. Connect And Cruise debuts for Charlton Baker with strong works. Spanimax also makes first start for the powerful Chris Englehart barn. Takahama and Pauper King are longshots with limited experience.
Race 7 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – $14,000
Win: 4-Tekila (22%)
Place: 3-Gringotts (56%)🥉
Show: 8-Fast Fran (22%)🥇
Alternative: 5-Isle Storm (33%)
With Lincolnville Beach scratched, this race opens up significantly. Tekila will be closing late to get the win with outstanding track form according to Lake’s Luck Play of the Day. Gringotts won impressively last time and is hitting stride late in season. Fast Fran is dangerous if she makes a clear early lead. Isle Storm returns from freshening off last-start victory. Diva Banker draws the rail.
Race 8 – Claiming – 1 Mile – $14,000
Win: 2-Datesfreedom (44%)
Place: 5-Coach Bahe (78%)🥈
Show: 6-Saratoga Kisses (22%)
Alternative: 1-Matty’s Express (22%)
With Mad Magic scratched, Datesfreedom and Coach Bahe form the top two selections. Datesfreedom gets a field he can beat as track specialist with eight wins at Finger Lakes. Coach Bahe must always be considered as hard knocker with outstanding track form and last-start winner. Saratoga Kisses shows slowest early speed but has strong late kick. Big Rich is in solid current form.
Race 9 – Maiden Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs – $13,000 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 3-Probably Flattery (78%)Place: 2-Sea Shepherd (78%)🥉
Show: 10-Cada Dia Mejor (44%)🥈
Alternative: 5-Peeling Out (44%)🥇
Overwhelming consensus supports Probably Flattery cutting back in distance after not firing in route. Has four placings from nine runs this prep. Sea Shepherd takes winning drop to score in finale with placings in higher company. Cada Dia Mejor finished second last start at Finger Lakes and warrants respect. Peeling Out has two placings from three runs this prep. A Few Choice Words could wake up against easier rivals according to Lake’s Luck.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Race 1 Exacta Box: 2-Skippy Town, 5-Three Point Strut, 6-Brown Don’t Stop
The win position remains contested between Skippy Town and Brown Don’t Stop, with Three Point Strut drawing 80% support for a place finish creating solid exacta value.
Race 2 Win Bet: 1-Dignified Response
With 70% analyst support in a weak maiden field, Dignified Response represents solid single play value at 2-1 morning line.
Race 3 Trifecta: 5-Zhen Lou, 6-Goodys Girl / 3-Marilyn’s NY Pride, 5-Zhen Lou, 6-Goodys Girl / 1-Tale Of The Tail, 2-Nurse Bunny, 3-Marilyn’s NY Pride
Competitive fillies race with three main contenders and value underneath.
Race 4 Exacta: 4-Berning Beauty / 6-Sorority Prank, 5-Skyler’s Starship / 6-Sorority Prank, 5-Skyler’s Starship
Strong consensus on top two with 67% support each creates foundation for exacta play.
Race 5 Win/Place: 3-Play Good Pay Good
Despite divided opinion, Play Good Pay Good dropping in class offers value with 44% support.
Race 6 Trifecta: 4-Chioke / 5-Connect And Cruise, 8-Spanimax / 3-Takahama, 5-Connect And Cruise, 8-Spanimax, 1-Pauper King
Chioke anchors with debuting horses offering value underneath at 55% confidence.
Race 7 Exacta Box: 3-Gringotts, 4-Tekila
With Lincolnville Beach scratched, Lake’s Luck Play of the Day Tekila and consensus choice Gringotts provide foundation.
Race 8 Exacta: 2-Datesfreedom / 5-Coach Bahe, 6-Saratoga Kisses / 5-Coach Bahe, 6-Saratoga Kisses
Track specialists Datesfreedom and Coach Bahe with Mad Magic scratched creates opportunity.
Race 9 Win/Place: 3-Probably Flattery
Overwhelming 78% analyst support makes Probably Flattery strongest consensus play of the card.
Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9): 3-Gringotts, 4-Tekila / 2-Datesfreedom, 5-Coach Bahe / 3-Probably Flattery
Conservative multi-race play featuring top consensus selections.
Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9): 4-Chioke, 5-Connect And Cruise / 3-Gringotts, 4-Tekila / 2-Datesfreedom, 5-Coach Bahe / 3-Probably Flattery
Extended sequence capturing strong consensus plays.
