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Race 1 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $31,000

Win: Summer Shoes (5) – 95% confidence
Place: The Girl In Red (3) – 85% confidence
Show: Wildwood Queen (4) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Kitiara (9) – 55% confidence​

Race notes:
Pick Pony analysts see Summer Shoes as a strong anchor, singled or heavily used on top in nearly every public set of picks. The Girl In Red has a wide base of support as a logical second choice with upside second off the layoff. Wildwood Queen and Kitiara both project as key pace factors; if the favorite underperforms, either could upset or complete high-paying exactas.

Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1 Mile Dirt – Purse $44,000

Win: Cervaro Della Sala (2) – 90% confidence
Place: Windy Walk (7) – 80% confidence
Show: Our Liberty Belle (6) – 80% confidence
Alternative: Up On The Edge (4) – 50% confidence​

Race notes:
Cervaro Della Sala is the most frequently nominated top pick and offers tactical speed with consistent dirt form. Windy Walk and Our Liberty Belle form a highly respected pairing; many analysts see them running as a team, with Our Liberty Belle slightly more attractive as a rebound dirt closer. Up On The Edge is a trip-dependent alternative who could outrun her price if the inside speed holds together.

Race 3 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $33,000

Win: Solevo (5) – 80% confidence
Place: He Is Heaven Sent (7) – 75% confidence
Show: Springtown (2) – 70% confidence
Alternative: Tapwrits Temper (4) – 55% confidence​

Race notes:
Solevo and He Is Heaven Sent share the bulk of win endorsements, with Solevo getting a slight edge based on recent figures and multiple algorithmic selections. Springtown is consistently rated as a top-three player off his solid comeback run. Tapwrits Temper appears on several tickets as the main pace-adjacent challenger and is an important coverage horse in multi-race wagers.

Race 4 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $31,000

Win: Born Flawless (6) – 75% confidence
Place: J J’s Joker (2) – 70% confidence
Show: Golden Hornet (11) – 65% confidence
Alternative: Steel Link (8) – 60% confidence​

Race notes:
Analysts are split but generally coalesce around Born Flawless and J J’s Joker as the most likely winners, with Born Flawless slightly ahead on class and recency angles. Golden Hornet and Steel Link attract strong algorithmic support and appear repeatedly as value alternatives, especially in projected pace scenarios where outside speed performs well. This is one of the more chaotic claiming contests on the card and a race where spreading horizontally is justified.

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $44,000

Win: Secret Legend (2) – 80% confidence
Place: Dawn At Normandy (10) – 65% confidence
Show: Poppa Echo (8) – 70% confidence
Alternative: La Lengua (11) – 60% confidence​

Race notes:
Secret Legend draws the strongest consensus given multiple tip sheets placing him on top and his reliable local form. Dawn At Normandy is a polarizing runner: widely acknowledged on figures but flagged by several analysts as a potential underlay off the long layoff and class drop. Poppa Echo and La Lengua represent the main upset and value candidates, both with back races suggesting they can win at this level if they move forward second off the layoff or with a cleaner trip.

Race 6 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $40,000

Win: I Got No Munny (4) – 95% confidence
Place: Stage Left (1) – 85% confidence
Show: Fifty Cent Dollars (2) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Sir Sterling (9) – 50% confidence​

Race notes:
I Got No Munny is one of the strongest single-candidate favorites on the card, unanimously viewed as the key horse in this race. Stage Left is universally respected as the main rival and appears in the top two of nearly every public opinion, making this a clear two-horse focal point. Fifty Cent Dollars and Sir Sterling are long-layoff and trip-based alternatives that offer price appeal in deeper vertical structures without displacing the top pair as primary win threats.

Race 7 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $65,000

Win: Rowdy Riot (1) – 80% confidence
Place: Camp Evans (9) – 80% confidence
Show: Bob’s Carrot (2) – 75% confidence
Alternative: Ripped (7) – 60% confidence​

Race notes:
This race produces a three-headed consensus, with Rowdy Riot, Camp Evans, and Bob’s Carrot all drawing heavy support as win candidates. Rowdy Riot’s class drop and prior Oaklawn consistency give him a narrow edge as the preferred top pick. Camp Evans appears repeatedly as a projected improver at this level, while Bob’s Carrot brings reliable recent form and tactical positioning. Ripped is widely recognized as the volatile upside horse whose best race can win but whose form is inconsistent.

Race 8 – Poinsettia Stakes – 5½ Furlongs Dirt – Purse $150,000

Win: Hillerito (2) – 98% confidence
Place: Benedetta (4) – 80% confidence
Show: Jersey Pearl (6) – 75% confidence
Alternative: Tapit Quick (1) – 55% confidence​

Race notes:
Pick Pony analysts view Hillerito as the day’s most universal opinion: virtually every public analyst has her as the likely winner, with pace and class advantages over a compact field. Benedetta is consistently considered the most serious upset candidate second off the layoff, especially if the pace becomes contested. Jersey Pearl and Tapit Quick both appear as logical underneath runners; Jersey Pearl fits exactas and trifectas based on prior stakes success, while Tapit Quick offers a stalking style that could capitalize if the top pair overdo it early.

Race 9 – Allowance – 1 Mile 110 Yards Dirt – Purse $115,000

Win: Adogate (2) – 85% confidence
Place: L. A. Woman (5) – 80% confidence
Show: Low Key (3) – 80% confidence
Alternative: Allihies (11) – 55% confidence​

Race notes:
Public opinion divides between the established favorite L. A. Woman and the resurgent Adogate, with a slight consensus tilt toward Adogate off the sharp Remington win and positive distance projections. Low Key is very consistently rated as a top-three finisher, particularly in scenarios favoring late runners. Allihies is a widely-cited price horse with back-class; from the outside post she will need a trip but is included on many deeper tickets for an upset or underneath finish.

Race 10 – Allowance – 1 Mile 110 Yards Dirt – Purse $115,000

Win: Gowells Delight (9) – 90% confidence
Place: Kerry’s Kiss (10) – 80% confidence
Show: Zaghruta (8) – 75% confidence
Alternative: She’s Not A Joke (6) – 55% confidence​

Race notes:
Gowells Delight is repeatedly projected as the key pace horse and primary winner on overall figures, with many models ranking her first or second. Kerry’s Kiss draws strong support as a sharp recent winner stepping into a tougher allowance but retaining competitiveness on numbers. Zaghruta is a class-tested filly whose better efforts make her a major factor if she rebounds from the last disappointment. She’s Not A Joke appears on several tickets as a late-running underneath threat who can spice up trifectas at a price.

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1:
Pick Pony analysts favor constructing exactas and trifectas around Summer Shoes and The Girl In Red, using Wildwood Queen and Kitiara underneath. Exacta structures focusing on Summer Shoes over The Girl In Red and Wildwood Queen, and three-horse trifecta boxes among Summer Shoes, The Girl In Red, and Wildwood Queen, align with most public exotics guidance. Deeper tickets can rotate Kitiara into the third slot for a better payout.

Race 2:
Given the tight cluster among Cervaro Della Sala, Windy Walk, and Our Liberty Belle, two- and three-horse boxes using these three are recommended. Exacta boxes Cervaro–Windy and Cervaro–Our Liberty Belle mirror several public suggested combinations, while trifecta approaches key Cervaro on top with Windy Walk and Our Liberty Belle filling minor spots. Up On The Edge can be added to the third slot on wider tickets for price coverage.

Race 3:
Vertical wagers should lean on a core of Solevo, He Is Heaven Sent, and Springtown, with Tapwrits Temper as the fourth wheel. A three-horse trifecta box of Solevo, He Is Heaven Sent, and Springtown fits the consensus, with Tapwrits Temper added in superfectas. Because opinions diverge more sharply here than in some other races, Pick Pony analysts recommend avoiding all-in singles and instead anchoring multis with at least two of the top three.

Race 4:
This is an ideal race to use spreading strategies in multi-race sequences. Exacta and trifecta tickets can key Born Flawless and J J’s Joker but should also incorporate Golden Hornet and Steel Link prominently. One efficient approach is a trifecta where Born Flawless and J J’s Joker occupy the top slot, with all four consensus horses filling second and third; this captures most commonly predicted outcomes while respecting the race’s volatility.

Race 5:
Exotic structures should treat Secret Legend as a central key but not a stand-alone single. Exacta combinations that key Secret Legend over Dawn At Normandy, Poppa Echo, and La Lengua offer a solid balance between likelihood and price. Trifectas can rotate Poppa Echo and La Lengua into the second slot ahead of the favored pair to capitalize if the crowd over-bets the layoff horse.

Race 6:
Pick Pony analysts are comfortable building highly concentrated vertical tickets here. Exactas narrowly focused on I Got No Munny and Stage Left on top are justified, with Fifty Cent Dollars and Sir Sterling primarily occupying third and fourth in trifectas and superfectas. Multi-race sequences can often single I Got No Munny, leveraging the broader consensus to allocate more coverage elsewhere on the card.

Race 7:
Because three horses—Rowdy Riot, Camp Evans, and Bob’s Carrot—share similar support, three-horse exacta and trifecta boxes among them are preferred. Ripped is best used as a speculative inclusion in the third or fourth slot of deeper trifectas and superfectas rather than as a key on top. Sequences such as late Pick 3s and Pick 4s benefit from at least two of the top three consensus runners to mitigate the race’s inherent chaos.

Race 8:
Exotics should be heavily tilted toward Hillerito on top, with Benedetta and Jersey Pearl as the primary underneath pieces. Exacta tickets key Hillerito over Benedetta and Jersey Pearl, while trifectas can use Hillerito as an anchor in the first spot and rotate Benedetta, Jersey Pearl, and Tapit Quick underneath. Kant Believe It and Gray Lightning are best reserved for the bottom of superfectas where their inclusion can significantly increase payoff potential.

Race 9:
With Adogate, L. A. Woman, and Low Key tightly bunched in public opinion, the recommended approach is to use all three prominently in vertical bets. Exacta wheels that key Adogate over L. A. Woman and Low Key, and mirrored tickets with L. A. Woman on top, recognize both the favorite’s class and the improving profile of the Remington winner. Allihies is regarded as an optimal third- and fourth-place inclusion in trifectas and superfectas due to her price and back-class.

Race 10:
Pick Pony analysts recommend centering vertical structures on Gowells Delight, Kerry’s Kiss, and Zaghruta. Exactas that box Gowells Delight and Kerry’s Kiss capture the most common projection, while trifectas can key Gowells Delight on top with Kerry’s Kiss and Zaghruta in the second and third slots. She’s Not A Joke is best used underneath in trifectas and superfectas where her inclusion can significantly boost returns without requiring her to beat the main trio.

Value Play Observations

Race 1:
Wildwood Queen and Kitiara project as the primary win-value alternatives to an over-bet Summer Shoes. Both appear as top picks from at least one analyst and multiple alternates elsewhere, suggesting they are likely to be underrepresented relative to their true win probabilities.

Race 2:
Miranda’s Rocky and Up On The Edge offer price potential in a race where most attention clusters on Cervaro Della Sala, Windy Walk, and Our Liberty Belle. Analysts who emphasize long-form consistency and route stamina are more inclined to use Miranda’s Rocky underneath at likely double-digit odds.

Race 3:
Tapwrits Temper and Mamoot emerge as the two most interesting value runners. They appear in several public top-three lists but are overshadowed in the market by Solevo and He Is Heaven Sent. Their inclusion in second and third positions can materially improve vertical payouts without dramatically increasing ticket cost.

Race 4:
Golden Hornet and Steel Link both attract strong algorithmic and figure-based support while likely offering better prices than Born Flawless and J J’s Joker. Golden Hornet in particular appears as a top-rated selection on multiple quantitative sheets, marking him as one of the sharper value plays on the entire program.

Race 5:
La Lengua is a standout value play, with multiple analysts upgrading him off a strong comeback run and positive barn change. Poppa Echo is another high-upside candidate whose prior tough-trip efforts and trainer’s positive claim statistics suggest he can outrun his likely odds.

Race 6:
Fifty Cent Dollars offers the most appealing value profile, with excellent course affinity and strong historical figures masked by a long layoff. Sir Sterling projects as another price horse with enough tactical speed and late punch to land in the exacta or trifecta if the top pair underperform.

Race 7:
Ripped represents the classic boom-or-bust value type: when right, his figures are fast enough to beat this field, and he appears repeatedly as a “watch out” type. Thunderhawk also deserves attention as a mid-price horse whose second-off-the-layoff pattern could see a meaningful forward move.

Race 8:
Kant Believe It and Tapit Quick are the main value pieces behind the overwhelming favorite Hillerito. Both are projected to sit favorable stalking trips and could capitalize if the heavy favorite regresses or faces unexpected pressure.

Race 9:
Allihies and Floating Beauty stand out as under-the-radar value plays. Allihies’ graded-experience background and outside draw give her a profile that can surprise at a price, while Floating Beauty appears as a top pick on at least one sheet yet figures to be overlooked relative to the better-known connections of the main trio.

Race 10:
Crimsonite and Lady Woopig rank as attractive value runners in a field dominated by talk around Gowells Delight, Kerry’s Kiss, and Zaghruta. Multiple figures-based sheets rate Crimsonite as at least co-equal to the better-known names, and Lady Woopig shows a pattern of improving route form that could produce a top-three finish at a generous number.

All horses named above have been cross-checked against race-card style sources to confirm entry in their respective races, and no horse appears in more than one consensus finishing position per race.