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Race 1 — Claiming — 6 1/2 Furlongs — Dirt — $12,000

Win: 3 Determined Lover — 77% confidence
Place: 9 Our Dream Rye'd — 62% confidence
Show: 5 Great Runner — 62% confidence🥇
Alternative: 4 I'm Enticing — 31% confidence🥈

Race notes: Analyst notes point to a meaningful class drop angle for Determined Lover, and multiple analysts expect Our Dream Rye'd to be a major factor late. Great Runner shows broad “in-the-money” support across analysts even when not the top win choice.​

Race 2 — Claiming — 5 Furlongs — Dirt — $24,000 WIN

Win: 3 Go Purple — 77% confidence🥇
Place: 2 Glory O — 62% confidence
Show: 5 Posetively Perfect — 77% confidence🥉
Alternative: 4 Pass The Woodford — 38% confidence

Race notes: Pick Pony analysts see Go Purple and Glory O repeatedly paired at the top, suggesting a race that may be decided by early position and trip. Analyst notes also highlight Posetively Perfect coming off a sharp win and remaining an important exacta/trifecta piece.​

Race 3 — Starter Allowance — 1 Mile 70 Yards — Dirt — $20,000

Win: 2 Affair — 92% confidence🥉
Place: 6 Midnight Lady — 62% confidence🥇
Show: 5 Long May She Run — 69% confidence
Alternative: 3 Jeri Dawn — 46% confidence

Race notes: Affair dominates the card's consensus involvement, showing up on almost every analyst's ticket in some slot. Analyst notes also emphasize Midnight Lady's recent form surge and Long May She Run's reliability to land in exotics.​

Race 4 — Oklahoma Claiming — 6 Furlongs — Dirt — $27,000 WIN

Win: 6 So Jacksann — 92% confidence🥇
Place: 2 Okie Magic — 85% confidence
Show: 5 La Morena — 69% confidence🥈
Alternative: 4 Shawk's Lil Mia — 46% confidence

Race notes: So Jacksann is the most dominant consensus “win-anchor” on the entire slate. Analyst notes also suggest Okie Magic can rebound and that La Morena's class/consistency keeps her firmly in the exacta-trifecta conversation.​

Race 5 — Claiming — 1 Mile 70 Yards — Dirt — $17,000 WIN ($7.60)

Win: 10 Drama Code — 69% confidence🥇
Place: 6 When Smokey Sings — 62% confidence
Show: 3 Down The Islands — 62% confidence🥉
Alternative: 4 Falcon Quest — 31% confidence

Race notes: Pick Pony analysts see Drama Code repeatedly keyed despite different opinions on the underneath slots. Analyst notes call out When Smokey Sings as a consistent “always there” type at this level and Down The Islands as an improving contender.​

Race 6 — Claiming — 7 Furlongs — Dirt — $22,000

Win: 5 Tis Charming — 92% confidence🥉
Place: 6 Missing Rocks — 54% confidence
Show: 4 Stonington — 46% confidence🥈
Alternative: 2 Town Hero — 54% confidence🥇

Race notes: Analyst notes strongly emphasize Tis Charming's form line coming in from Churchill Downs and multiple analysts treat him as the primary key. Town Hero and Missing Rocks show meaningful support, but the “which one runs second” debate is widespread across analysts.​

Race 7 — Maiden — 7 Furlongs — Dirt — $38,000

Win: 7 Globalist — 77% confidence🥈
Place: 2 Rockin His Sox Off — 77% confidence🥉
Show: 8 Baker Hayfield — 62% confidence
Alternative: 10 Cucamonga — 69% confidence🥇

Race notes: Pick Pony analysts see Globalist and Rockin His Sox Off as the core of the race, with Baker Hayfield and Cucamonga rotating heavily underneath. Analyst notes also mention several improving profiles in this maiden group, suggesting volatility for deep exotics.​

Race 8 — Allowance — 5 1/2 Furlongs — Dirt — $39,000

Win: 10 Innovator — 85% confidence
Place: 9 Berry Mischievous — 62% confidence
Show: 6 Tom Sawyer — 62% confidence
Alternative: 7 Runhappy D' Oro — 46% confidence

Race notes: Analyst notes repeatedly reference Innovator's change in setup (surface/equipment) as a potential catalyst, while Berry Mischievous is treated as a form horse stepping up off strong recent results. The Tom Sawyer vs Runhappy D' Oro debate is a key ticket-structure decision.​

Race 9 — Oklahoma Maiden — 5 1/2 Furlongs — Dirt — $38,000

Win: 9 West Code Mischief — 77% confidence
Place: 6 Runaway Ruby — 85% confidence
Show: 7 Sunday Night Code — 54% confidence
Alternative: 1 Miss Code — 54% confidence

Race notes: West Code Mischief is the most consistent “win” consensus, but Runaway Ruby shows the strongest overall presence across analyst tickets. Analyst notes also point to equipment/distance angles in this group that can swing late outcomes.​

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1

Pick Pony analysts recommend leaning into a two-horse win split: key exactas with Determined Lover over Our Dream Rye'd and Great Runner, and a saver exacta reversing Our Dream Rye'd over Determined Lover. Trifecta structure to keep ticket cost controlled: Determined Lover / Our Dream Rye'd / Great Runner with I'm Enticing as the primary 4th-slot upgrade.

Race 2

Primary exacta focus: Go Purple over Glory O and Posetively Perfect, with a smaller reverse exacta using Glory O over Go Purple. Trifecta approach: Go Purple and Glory O in the top two slots (boxed), with Posetively Perfect as the main third-slot key; Pass The Woodford is the “spice” horse for a higher-return third/fourth position.

Race 3

Straightforward key-race: Affair as a win-key in exactas over Midnight Lady and Long May She Run. Trifecta: Affair on top, Midnight Lady and Long May She Run in the 2nd/3rd slots, with Jeri Dawn as the most practical add-on for broader coverage.

Race 4

This is the card's strongest “single” type race: So Jacksann as the key. Exacta: So Jacksann over Okie Magic and La Morena. Trifecta: So Jacksann over Okie Magic and La Morena, with Shawk's Lil Mia as the main 3rd/4th-slot extender.

Race 5

Pick Pony analysts recommend using Drama Code as the top key, but avoiding over-committing to a single underneath order. Exacta: Drama Code over When Smokey Sings and Down The Islands, plus a smaller reverse with When Smokey Sings over Drama Code. Trifecta: Drama Code with When Smokey Sings and Down The Islands underneath (boxed in 2nd/3rd); Falcon Quest is the high-variance add if chasing a price.

Race 6

Key play: Tis Charming. Exacta: Tis Charming over Missing Rocks and Town Hero. Trifecta: Tis Charming over Missing Rocks, Town Hero, and Stonington (using two of the three underneath). If spreading deeper, Town Hero becomes a useful “must use” for superfectas given mixed but steady analyst support.

Race 7

Core exacta: Globalist and Rockin His Sox Off (boxed). Trifecta: Globalist and Rockin His Sox Off with Baker Hayfield and Cucamonga rotating into 3rd (and 4th if playing supers). This is a practical spot to play a small superfecta using the consensus top four without adding additional chaos horses.

Race 8

Key exacta: Innovator over Berry Mischievous and Tom Sawyer. Trifecta: Innovator over Berry Mischievous and Tom Sawyer, with Runhappy D' Oro as the main 3rd/4th-slot inclusion. If playing supers, consider using Innovator in the top slot only, and spreading the 2nd–4th positions among Berry Mischievous, Tom Sawyer, Runhappy D' Oro, and one price horse.

Race 9

Pick Pony analysts recommend a “win/coverage” structure: West Code Mischief keyed on top, with Runaway Ruby heavily used underneath. Exacta: West Code Mischief over Runaway Ruby and Sunday Night Code. Trifecta: West Code Mischief over Runaway Ruby, with Sunday Night Code and Miss Code battling for the remaining slot.

Value Play Observations

Race 1: I'm Enticing profiles as the most consistent price-inclusion among analysts for deeper exotics, offering leverage if the top two get pressured and the trip collapses.​

Race 2: Pass The Woodford is the most common “fourth horse” that can turn a chalky exacta into a stronger trifecta/superfecta payout if it outruns its slot.

Race 3: Jeri Dawn is the most frequent alternative that still carries meaningful consensus presence; this is the best spot to look for trifecta value underneath the heavy consensus top pair.

Race 5: Falcon Quest is the highest-variance consensus inclusion and is most useful as a small-ticket saver rather than a primary win stance.

Race 8: Runhappy D' Oro is the key “value lever” if the public collapses onto Innovator and Berry Mischievous; it appears often enough on analyst tickets to justify inclusion, but not so often that it becomes dead money.

Race 9: Sunday Night Code and Miss Code show similar overall analyst presence; splitting coverage between them (rather than choosing one) is a disciplined way to avoid getting knocked out late in the card.​