Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.
Race 1 – Claiming, 6F Turf, 2:30 PM, Purse: $26,000
Win: Player B (5) – 64% confidence
Place: The Old Nine (1) – 45% confidence
Show: Bolt Supremacy (3) – 36% confidence
Alternative: Billy Joe Shaver (4) – 27% confidence
Race Notes: Player B commands strong consensus backing as analysts favor the proven turf form and tactical speed. The Old Nine emerges as the most popular place selection based on recent closing performance and value at morning line odds. Bolt Supremacy and Billy Joe Shaver split third-choice support, with the latter drawing attention for his upside returning from a layoff with blinkers added. This race presents legitimate late pace, creating opportunity for closers to rally into contention.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming, 8F Dirt, 3:00 PM, Purse: $21,000
Win: One Step Beyond (3) – 73% confidence
Place: Golden Chaser (5) – 36% confidence
Show: Mr. Tariff (6) – 36% confidence
Alternative: Smokeintheair (1) – 18% confidence
Race Notes: One Step Beyond attracts overwhelming analyst support stretching out to a route for the first time. The gelding narrowly missed by a neck last start and shows consistent in-the-money finishes. Golden Chaser and Mr. Tariff receive equal backing for runner-up consideration, with both returning to appropriate class levels after testing tougher. The stretch-out distance favors pace-pressing types on a track showing 14 of 16 dirt mile winners positioned 1-2-3 early this meet.
Race 3 – Starter Optional Claiming, 1430Y Turf, 3:32 PM, Purse: $35,000
Win: A Day To Remember (4) – 55% confidence
Place: Burning Rubber (5) – 45% confidence
Show: Proudly Hailed (3) – 27% confidence
Alternative: Silly Rabbit (1) – 18% confidence
Race Notes: A Day To Remember leads consensus after a six-month layoff, dropping to starter optional claiming from higher levels. The gelding won his maiden impressively over this course with a career-best 87 Beyer. Burning Rubber receives nearly equal support shortening back to sprint distance following a solid second in a route. Proudly Hailed drops from Turfway Park allowance races and makes California debut on preferred turf surface. Silly Rabbit presents value as a route-to-sprint play with closing kick suited to expected pace scenario.
Race 4 – Starter Allowance, 1210Y Dirt, 4:05 PM, Purse: $35,000
Win: Auditory (1) – 73% confidence
Place: Rousing Jewel (3) – 64% confidence
Show: Uffda (4) – 36% confidence
Alternative: A Rousing Babe (2) – 18% confidence
Race Notes: Auditory commands elite consensus with exceptional Santa Anita form showing 5-3-1-0 at this track and 4-3-1-0 at this distance. The mare has defeated Rousing Jewel in multiple recent encounters but broke slowly last start at Los Alamitos. Rousing Jewel enters first off claim for Steve Knapp, a trainer converting at 21 percent with newly acquired dirt sprinters. Uffda defeated both top choices on December 14 and possesses sufficient speed to establish position. The race sets up as tactical speed duel with Auditory positioned to close late.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight, 9F Turf, 4:34 PM, Purse: $70,000
Win: Victorious Dream (4) – 36% confidence
Place: Island Home (2) – 36% confidence
Show: Inbox (6) – 36% confidence
Alternative: Channel Place (3) – 9% confidence
Race Notes: This maiden turf route presents one of the most contentious races on the card with three-way split opinion. Victorious Dream adds Lasix and stretches out after slow-starting fifth in U.S. debut. Island Home narrowly missed last start and makes second career attempt. European import Inbox debuts for Phil D'Amato, a trainer converting at 24 percent with Euro-shippers in maiden races over the past five years. The pace should be tepid, potentially favoring speed. Shane's the Brains receives minority backing as upset candidate.
Race 6 – Starter Optional Claiming, 1430Y Dirt, 5:04 PM, Purse: $70,000
Win: Wishtheyallcouldbe (4) – 64% confidence
Place: Emirates Affair (1) – 36% confidence
Show: Thirsty Trickster (5) – 27% confidence
Alternative: Don't Ju Forget (3) – 27% confidence
Race Notes: Wishtheyallcouldbe dominates consensus after decisive allowance win over Cal-breds last start. The mare posts outstanding Santa Anita form with 5 wins from 10 attempts at this track. Emirates Affair compromised by hot pace in tougher allowance company last out and drops to starter claiming with tactical speed advantage. Thirsty Trickster and Don't Ju Forget complete the exotics picture, both capable of pressing early. The inside post presents challenge for Emirates Affair but she possesses sufficient speed to secure forward position.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 9F Turf, 5:34 PM, Purse: $70,000
Win: Resolve (10) – 27% confidence
Place: Willa T (5) – 27% confidence
Show: Royal Charter (3) – 27% confidence
Alternative: Take A Breath (7) – 27% confidence
Race Notes: Race seven presents the most divided analyst opinion on the entire card with four-way consensus split. Resolve exits Grade 1 company where she finished competitive fifth after rallying to lead in previous 11-furlong stakes. Willa T won three straight at one mile before testing Grade 3 stakes. Royal Charter just missed in similar race, while Take A Breath returns from Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. The pace projects tepid, creating potential for front-running scenario. No true speed threatens Willa T's early positioning if she attempts wire-to-wire strategy.
Race 8 – La Canada Stakes (G3), 8F 110Y Dirt, 6:04 PM, Purse: $100,000
Win: Brilliantly (4) – 73% confidence
Place: Nafisa (5) – 36% confidence
Show: So There She Was (3) – 36% confidence
Alternative: Jane Austen (6) – 18% confidence
Race Notes: Brilliantly attracts overwhelming support dropping from Grade 1 La Brea and stretching to two turns with blinkers re-added. Trainer Bob Baffert saddles three of six entrants including Nafisa, who seeks third consecutive win after dominating allowance company. So There She Was stretches out from seven-furlong La Brea where she finished behind Brilliantly. The distance increase benefits So There She Was who figures better suited to two-turn trip. Jane Austen presents value with course-and-distance form. Brilliantly likely establishes early lead with pace pressing from Nafisa creating potentially demanding fractions.
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1320Y Turf, 6:34 PM, Purse: $70,000
Win: Christel Clean (4) – 64% confidence
Place: Goodnight Nellie (1) – 55% confidence
Show: Shezmisbehaving (9) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Mendelssohns Angel (7) – 18% confidence
Race Notes: Christel Clean commands strong consensus support switching from dirt to turf. The Violence filly won twice on dirt last year and shows tactical versatility not requiring early lead. Goodnight Nellie returns to turf after allowance dirt victory and demonstrated turf competence last summer. The finishing card race presents compelling value hunting opportunities as Shezmisbehaving, Mendelssohns Angel, Lamporghini, and Fancy Facts all receive scattered backing. The pace should develop legitimately with multiple speed types engaged early, setting up late rally scenario.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Exacta: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6
The strong 64 percent consensus behind Player B (5) makes him the logical single in vertical exotics. Spreading underneath captures The Old Nine (1), Bolt Supremacy (3), Billy Joe Shaver (4), and Belly Up (6) who collectively represent the place and show support. Consider small exacta box with 1-5 given split opinion between these two as analysts respect The Old Nine's closing ability.
Race 2
Exacta: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6
One Step Beyond (3) commands 73 percent support warranting single designation. The three-way battle for place consideration between Golden Chaser (5), Mr. Tariff (6), and Smokeintheair (1) creates value opportunity. Consider boxing all three underneath the consensus top choice. The stretch-out to mile distance adds unpredictability, enhancing potential exotic payouts.
Race 3
Exacta: 4,5 box with 1,3
Trifecta: 4,5 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,3,4,5
Split 55/45 opinion between A Day To Remember (4) and Burning Rubber (5) suggests boxing these two on top. Proudly Hailed (3) and Silly Rabbit (1) complete tickets underneath as both possess legitimate closing kicks. The turf sprint distance creates tactical complexity with multiple running styles viable. Consider trifecta key box emphasizing top two choices.
Race 4
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,6
Auditory (1) presents strong single opportunity at 73 percent consensus. Rousing Jewel (3) rates clear second choice meriting coverage in exacta and inclusion on trifecta top. Uffda (4) and A Rousing Babe (2) complete vertical tickets. The tactical speed scenario creates potential for pace confrontation benefiting closers. Consider straight exacta 1-3 alongside boxed coverage.
Race 5
Superfecta: 2,4,6 with 2,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6
The three-way 36 percent split consensus creates superfecta opportunity. Box Victorious Dream (4), Island Home (2), and Inbox (6) on top two spots, spreading underneath to all runners. The maiden classification combined with route distance and turf surface generates unpredictability. Consider cold superfecta including Shane's the Brains (5) and Channel Place (3) in bottom spots.
Race 6
Exacta: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1,3,5 with 1,3,5,6
Wishtheyallcouldbe (4) dominates at 64 percent making her single material. Emirates Affair (1), Thirsty Trickster (5), and Don't Ju Forget (3) battle for runner-up positioning. The pace projects contentious with multiple speed types, potentially compromising early speed and setting up late rally. Consider exacta 4 over 1,3,5 alongside small trifecta box 1-4-5.
Race 7
Superfecta: 3,5,7,10 with 3,5,7,10 with 1,3,4,5,7,10 with ALL
Perfect four-way consensus split creates legitimate superfecta opportunity. Box Resolve (10), Willa T (5), Royal Charter (3), and Take A Breath (7) on top two positions. The allowance optional claiming classification combined with nine-furlong turf distance generates form uncertainty. Spread wide in superfecta including Corporal Violette (1) and Angelic Appeal (4) in third and fourth positions.
Race 8
Exacta: 4 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 4,5 with 3,4,5,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6
Brilliantly (4) attracts 73 percent consensus but faces stablemates and competitive Grade 3 field. Key with Nafisa (5) on trifecta top as Baffert duo likely controls pace. So There She Was (3) and Jane Austen (6) complete vertical coverage. The two-turn distance benefits closers if pace proves demanding. Consider exacta 4-5 and 5-4 alongside trifecta 4,5 with 3,5,6 with ALL.
Race 9
Exacta: 4 with 1,3,6,7,9
Trifecta: 4 with 1,7,9 with 1,3,6,7,9
Christel Clean (4) commands 64 percent support making her straightforward single. Goodnight Nellie (1) rates clear second at 55 percent. Shezmisbehaving (9), Mendelssohns Angel (7), Lamporghini (3), and Fancy Facts (6) all receive scattered support creating value underneath. The turf sprint on closing card presents upset potential. Consider cold trifecta 1-4-7, 1-4-9, 4-1-9 targeting value horses underneath consensus top two.
Value Play Observations
Race 1
Billy Joe Shaver (4) at 7-2 morning line represents potential overlay. The gelding returns from layoff with blinkers added for first time and draws 27 percent analyst support despite being third or fourth choice in most lineups. Recent workout pattern suggests readiness. The 9-2 morning line on The Old Nine (1) appears underlaid given 45 percent place consensus, suggesting potential exacta value using The Old Nine over shorter prices.
Race 2
Mr. Tariff (6) at 4-1 merits consideration given improving pattern for Jeff Bonde stable and Lasix addition for third career start. The gelding defeated several returning rivals two back and receives 36 percent place/show support. Smokeintheair (1) draws 18 percent backing at 5-1 morning line, representing legitimate value if the route distance proves suitable.
Race 3
Silly Rabbit (1) at 6-1 presents overlay opportunity despite 18 percent consensus backing. The route-to-sprint play co-tops the field's best last-out turf Beyer at 79 and benefits from rail draw in race where eight of nine recent turf sprint winners rallied from middle or back. Proudly Hailed (3) ships from Turfway Park at 3-1, potentially underlaid given 27 percent support and return to preferred turf surface.
Race 4
Outrageous (6) receives minimal consensus attention but Brad Free and Michelle Yu highlight the mare's credentials. She crushed a lower-level claiming sprint last out and previously defeated top choice Auditory. The projected 6-1 odds create value opportunity if pace scenario develops favorably. A Rousing Babe (2) appears overlaid at 8-1 given 18 percent support.
Race 5
Shane's the Brains (5) at 6-1 receives backing only from Brad Free but presents intriguing upset angle. The filly returns to turf after setting pace and tiring in dirt route that produced three next-out winners. She adds Lasix and blinkers for route attempt on preferred surface. The pace-less scenario favors front-running types. Velvet Dream (1) draws support from Tip Meerkat at projected 5-1, representing alternative value position.
Race 6
Emirates Affair (1) at 5-2 morning line appears underlaid given 36 percent consensus support and proven credentials at this level. Her last defeat came in tougher allowance company compromised by hot pace. The inside draw presents challenge but sufficient early speed exists to secure position. Cee's the Image (6) at 30-1 receives backing from Michelle Yu and Tip Meerkat, representing ultimate longshot saver in exotics.
Race 7
The four-way consensus split creates value throughout the race. Take A Breath (7) at 4-1 appears overlay given equal 27 percent support alongside shorter-priced alternatives. She exits Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks fourth-place finish and returns to optimal 9-furlong trip. Starts Now (8) receives FanDuel backing at 20-1 morning line, presenting extreme value if capable of replicating workout pattern suggesting return to form.
Race 8
Nafisa (5) at 5-1 presents compelling value proposition. The mare seeks third consecutive victory and receives 36 percent place/show support. Stablemate Brilliantly dominates morning line favoritism but Nafisa may benefit if pace develops favorably. Jane Austen (6) at 6-1 receives 18 percent backing with legitimate course-and-distance form, representing value alternative to chalk.
Race 9
Lamporghini (3) at 8-1 receives backing from Michelle Yu and Brad Free despite minimal consensus. First start since May for proven turf performer trained by Andy Mathis who also saddles Goodnight Nellie. The layoff combined with proven turf form creates value opportunity. Shezmisbehaving (9) and Mendelssohns Angel (7) both receive 18 percent support at 6-1 morning line, presenting equal value propositions underneath consensus top two choices.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
Race 2 featuring One Step Beyond (73 percent), Race 4 with Auditory (73 percent), Race 6 highlighting Wishtheyallcouldbe (64 percent), Race 8 showcasing Brilliantly (73 percent), and Race 9 led by Christel Clean (64 percent) present the firmest analyst alignment. One Step Beyond stretches out to mile distance after narrowly missing by neck last start, showing consistent in-the-money pattern that analysts trust transferring to route. Auditory dominates based on exceptional Santa Anita form showing 5-3-1-0 record at this track and 4-3-1-0 at this distance. The mare defeated rival Rousing Jewel in multiple recent encounters, establishing clear class advantage. Wishtheyallcouldbe returns to starter claiming after decisive Cal-bred allowance victory, her tenth career win and fifth at Santa Anita. Brilliantly drops from Grade 1 to Grade 3 company while stretching to two turns, a distance maneuver that typically benefits Bob Baffert trainees. Christel Clean switches from dirt to turf for John Sadler, a trainer demonstrating strong form this meet. These five races merit heavy emphasis in multi-race sequences.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 1 presents 64/45 percent split between Player B and The Old Nine, creating tactical decision point. Player B commands consensus but The Old Nine offers value closing kick. Race 3 shows 55/45 division between A Day To Remember and Burning Rubber, both legitimate win candidates with distinct tactical advantages. Race 5 delivers perfect three-way 36 percent split among Victorious Dream, Island Home, and Inbox, representing the most contentious race on the card. Maiden special weight classification combined with route distance and turf surface generates maximum uncertainty. Race 7 presents unprecedented four-way 27 percent consensus equality between Resolve, Willa T, Royal Charter, and Take A Breath. This allowance optional claiming turf route represents ultimate spread situation where no horse commands analytical confidence. These races demand multi-horse coverage in vertical exotics rather than single-horse confidence plays.
Multi-Race Sequences
Races 2-4-6-8 construct optimal pick four combining four races with 64-73 percent consensus leaders. One Step Beyond, Auditory, Wishtheyallcouldbe, and Brilliantly create reasonable single opportunities while allowing spread in remaining races. Races 4-6-8-9 form alternative pick four emphasizing late-card strength with Auditory, Wishtheyallcouldbe, Brilliantly, and Christel Clean as potential singles. The Late Pick 5 covering Races 5-9 begins with split-opinion maiden turf route creating multiple entry points. Consider spreading three-deep in Race 5, singling Race 6 with Wishtheyallcouldbe, spreading in Race 7's four-way split, emphasizing Brilliantly in Race 8, and keying Christel Clean with Goodnight Nellie in finale. The Sunset Pick 6 integrating Gulfstream and Santa Anita races 7-8-9 allows concentration on late-card coverage where consensus strengthens.
Exotic Value Opportunities
Race 3's turf sprint classification creates form unpredictability with horses returning from layoffs, cutting back from routes, and switching trainers. The 55/45 consensus split between top two choices generates trifecta value emphasizing A Day To Remember and Burning Rubber while spreading underneath to Proudly Hailed and Silly Rabbit. Race 5's three-way consensus deadlock in maiden turf route presents superfecta opportunity boxing Victorious Dream, Island Home, and Inbox on top two spots while spreading wide underneath. The maiden classification combined with distance and surface creates legitimate upset potential from Shane's the Brains or Channel Place. Race 7's four-way 27 percent split represents ultimate superfecta value with box approach covering Resolve, Willa T, Royal Charter, and Take A Breath on top two positions while spreading to all runners underneath. The nine-furlong turf distance on allowance optional claiming classification maximizes form variance. Consider cold superfecta combinations emphasizing less-favored horses at higher odds.
Environmental and Track Factors
Santa Anita's main turf course with rails at 20 feet continues favoring closers in six-furlong sprints, with eight of nine recent winners rallying from middle or back positions. This bias impacts Race 1 where The Old Nine's closing style receives tactical advantage despite Player B consensus. The dirt mile distance shows strong early speed bias with 14 of 16 winners positioned 1-2-3 early, directly benefiting One Step Beyond in Race 2. Track conditions project clear and firm throughout the card with temperatures near 64 degrees, maintaining speed-favoring surfaces on both dirt and turf. No weather concerns threaten conditions. Jockey Juan Hernandez rides five mounts on the card including consensus choices Player B, Burning Rubber, Brilliantly, and Goodnight Nellie, commanding attention given his 30 percent meet win rate.
Key Takeaways
Emphasize Races 2, 4, 6, 8, and 9 as cornerstones of multi-race sequences given 64-73 percent consensus alignment and logical form patterns supporting top selections. Spread in Race 7's unprecedented four-way split where no analytical consensus emerges, treating this as mandatory multi-horse race in all sequences. Target trifecta and superfecta value in Races 3, 5, and 7 where split opinions and maiden/allowance classifications create form uncertainty and potential for higher-odds horses to complete exotics. Respect Santa Anita track biases favoring closers on turf sprints and early speed on dirt routes, allowing these patterns to influence running style preferences when splitting hairs between equal-consensus horses.
