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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 6 1/2 furlongs – Dirt – $23,500 BOXED TRIFECTA
Consensus Picks:
Win: Hard Talk (4) – 40% confidence🥉
Place: Win Winnie Win (3) – 60% confidence🥈
Show: One Last Bullet (8) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Peripoli (7) – 20% confidence🥇
Race Notes: Multiple analysts favor Hard Talk in the win position after a recent Tampa Bay Downs placement with a drop in trip. Win Winnie Win draws strong support across place predictions despite a six-week layoff. One Last Bullet showed competitive form at its last outing, running just four lengths off the winner at Gulfstream. The consensus points to a competitive maiden claiming race with potential for value plays among the supporting cast.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming – 1 mile 40 yards – Dirt – $21,500 BOXED TRIFECTA
Consensus Picks:
Win: Somerset Mia (1) / Cash The Check (7) – 40% confidence each🥈
Place: Cash The Check (7) – 60% confidence🥇
Show: Knowledge Is Good (3) – 60% confidence🥉
Alternative: Instapurchase (2) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Somerset Mia and Cash The Check essentially split the win votes, indicating a competitive race with tight odds. Somerset Mia shows strong placement consistency while Cash The Check resumes from an 11-week layoff. Knowledge Is Good emerges as the consensus show option with two placings in the recent prep despite a significant distance loss at its last outing. The race shapes up as a genuine battle between the top contenders.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming – 1 mile – Turf – $23,500 WIN + TRIFECTA ($19.25)
Consensus Picks:
Win: Fortunate Ryder (4) – 80% confidence🥇
Place: Grand Liam (7) – 40% confidence🥈
Show: And Thats My Story (5) – 40% confidence🥉
Alternative: Efficacy (10) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Overwhelming consensus favors Fortunate Ryder with 80% confidence across the win position. Grand Liam shows multiple placements at the track with strong show support. And Thats My Story presents an interesting contrarian angle after a near-miss at Presque Isle Downs. The turf surface conditions will play an important role in this maiden claiming contest, with Fortunate Ryder clearly the pick pony analysts selection.
Race 4 – Claiming – 1 1/4 miles – Dirt – $31,000
Consensus Picks:
Win: Moretastic (7) – 80% confidence🥈
Place: Thelastbulletsmine (6) – 40% confidence
Show: Bonita Diamond (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Compass Fire (1) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Moretastic dominates the win position with 80% consensus confidence, showing outstanding form at this track and perfectly positioned after a seven-week layoff. Thelastbulletsmine emerges as the consensus place runner. Bonita Diamond holds strong value in the show position after an impressive two-win streak at Monmouth Park but is now dropping into claiming company. Multiple pick pony analysts identify Moretastic as the controlling choice in this race.
Race 5 – Claiming – 1 mile – Turf – $22,300
Consensus Picks:
Win: Tigre (7) – 60% confidence🥉
Place: Su Dream (3) – 40% confidence
Show: Redbird Nation (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Aegon Targaryen (8) – 20% confidence🥇
Race Notes: Tigre holds 60% consensus confidence for the win with a solid placement record in its current prep. The pick pony analysts cannot split the top three picks given the breadth of selections across different handicappers. Redbird Nation emerges as a consensus show candidate after a 29-week absence with a recent placement at Fairmount Park. Mungo presents a real danger as an alternative pick with improved recent form.
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 mile 40 yards – Dirt – $56,500 WIN + EXACTA
Consensus Picks:
Win: Eunomia (5) – 100% confidence🥇
Place: Pure Beauty (6) – 40% confidence
Show: U Lite Up My Life (8) – 40% confidence🥈
Alternative: Birdie Rose (2) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Eunomia commands universal support across all analysts with 100% consensus confidence in the win position. The horse won impressively at Keeneland with a solid track record at Tampa Bay Downs. Pure Beauty receives dual place support and should run fitter for recent efforts. U Lite Up My Life is noted as a consistent track specialist with three wins at Tampa Bay Downs. Pick pony analysts unanimously back Eunomia as the standout choice on this card.
Race 7 – Starter Allowance – 1 mile 110 yards – Turf – $31,000
Consensus Picks:
Win: Grounded (2) – 100% confidence
Place: Rigel (5) – 60% confidence🥈
Show: Eddie The Great (3) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Twilight Dancer (9) – 40% confidence
Race Notes: Grounded achieves perfect 100% consensus confidence with dominant form at the track and three wins from five attempts in the current prep. Rigel emerges as the clear place choice with 60% support. Eddie The Great finished just a neck behind the winner at Tampa Bay Downs when resuming, creating a compelling case for the show position. This appears to be the most unanimous consensus of the card with Grounded a clear pick pony analysts selection.
Race 8 – Claiming – 6 1/2 furlongs – Dirt – $19,000
Consensus Picks:
Win: Osprey (1) – 80% confidence
Place: Rebel Empire (4) – 60% confidence
Show: Downtown Connector (6) – 40% confidence🥈
Alternative: Copazo (9) – 20% confidence🥉
Race Notes: Osprey holds 80% consensus confidence for the win after a half-length loss at Tampa Bay Downs when first-up, with a favorable rails draw in the current assignment. Rebel Empire emerges as a strong place candidate with seven placings in an eight-run prep. Copazo is noted at quality racing venues with speed advantage that warrants consideration. Pick pony analysts identify Osprey as the controlling choice despite the tight odds situation.
Race 9 – Claiming – 1 mile – Turf – $22,500
Consensus Picks:
Win: Life Advice (4) / Americandreammaker (9) – 40% confidence each🥈
Place: Americandreammaker (9) / My Gal (6) – 40% confidence each
Show: My Gal (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: I Heard Somethings (7) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: The pick pony analysts identify this as a highly competitive field with Life Advice and Americandreammaker splitting the win votes at 40% each. Americandreammaker is noted as a track winner when second-up with quick return potential. My Gal emerges as a consensus place/show runner with competitive form including a Delaware Park success. Temple City Taboo presents an interesting contrarian angle for value-oriented bettors seeking overlay opportunities.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1 – Exotic Opportunities
Exacta combinations featuring Hard Talk and Win Winnie Win attract strong consideration given the consensus support. A trifecta play using the top three consensus picks (Hard Talk/Win Winnie Win/One Last Bullet) with Peripoli as an underlay offers value. Consider Win Winnie Win in multiple positions given the strength of support across different analysts.
Race 2 – Exotic Opportunities
Exacta boxes featuring the top two contenders (Somerset Mia and Cash The Check) provide strong value given the odds alignment and split consensus. Win/Place combination bets on both leading contenders are recommended. A trifecta incorporating Knowledge Is Good as the third choice aligns with the consensus and offers premium payout potential.
Race 3 – Exotic Opportunities
Fortunate Ryder as a single in the win spot combined with a Grand Liam/And Thats My Story box for place/show creates a strong trifecta base. An exacta featuring Fortunate Ryder over Grand Liam or And Thats My Story offers premium value given the consensus confidence level. The race appears structured for exacta and trifecta plays.
Race 4 – Exotic Opportunities
Moretastic as a single in the win position combined with a Thelastbulletsmine/Bonita Diamond combination for place/show creates strong value. An exacta featuring Moretastic over field members offers strong payout potential. A trifecta incorporating Compass Fire or Bonita Diamond as a third choice provides additional value options.
Race 5 – Exotic Opportunities
Tigre as a single in the win position combined with a Su Dream/Redbird Nation box provides a solid trifecta base. Exacta boxes using Tigre, Six Fortyfive, and Aegon Targaryen offer premium value opportunities. A superfecta incorporating Mungo as the fourth place option is recommended for aggressive players.
Race 6 – Exotic Opportunities
Eunomia as a single in the win position combined with a Pure Beauty/U Lite Up My Life box for place/show creates a strong trifecta foundation. An exacta featuring Eunomia over Pure Beauty or U Lite Up My Life offers premium payouts given the 100% consensus support. A win/place double on Eunomia is heavily recommended for straight bettors.
Race 7 – Exotic Opportunities
Grounded as a single in the win position combined with a Rigel/Eddie The Great box for place/show creates maximum value in the trifecta structure. An exacta featuring Grounded over Rigel or Eddie The Great offers strong payoff potential. A win/place double on Grounded is heavily recommended given the universal consensus across all analysts.
Race 8 – Exotic Opportunities
Osprey as a single in the win position combined with a Rebel Empire/Downtown Connector combination for place/show creates value. An exacta featuring Osprey over Rebel Empire or Awesome Move offers premium value. Trifecta combinations using Osprey/Rebel Empire/Downtown Connector or Osprey/Rebel Empire/Copazo are recommended.
Race 9 – Exotic Opportunities
A Life Advice/Americandreammaker exacta box offers strong value given the split consensus between these two contenders. A trifecta using both top contenders with My Gal as the third choice is recommended for this competitive field. Win/Place combination bets on both leading contenders provide a balanced approach to this race.
Value Play Observations
Race 1 Value Selections
Unclebrucerules presents an intriguing overlay as a maiden with noted early speed potential. Noahs Pride offers value in place/show wagering at competitive odds despite modest recent form. The consensus support for Hard Talk may result in underlaid odds on that selection.
Race 2 Value Selections
Cash The Check presents value in place wagering after a proven placement pattern at similar levels. Knowledge Is Good offers strong ROI in show/across-the-board wagering given recent track form and placement record. Melody Factor from At The Races analysis may provide overlay value as an outside win candidate.
Race 3 Value Selections
Fortunate Ryder represents a clear consensus choice but odds may not reflect the strength of support, potentially creating an underlay situation. Consider alternative place combinations using Grand Liam and Red Sky Morning for better value at higher odds. And Thats My Story offers contrarian value after its competitive recent effort.
Race 4 Value Selections
Moretastic is likely underlaid due to the consensus support and recent form at this track. Bonita Diamond represents excellent value play after a successful stint at higher level now dropping into claiming company. Ritabook offers potential place value given the competitive nature of the field.
Race 5 Value Selections
Redbird Nation offers strong value in show/across-the-board wagering at premium odds after the extended layoff. Six Fortyfive presents overlay potential given recent winning efforts at Gulfstream. Aegon Targaryen may offer value in place positions with less consensus attention.
Race 6 Value Selections
Eunomia is likely underlaid given universal support across all analysts and recent form. Pure Beauty offers value play in place wagering after a satisfactory recent effort at Laurel Park. U Lite Up My Life represents strong across-the-board play at competitive odds given track specialization history.
Race 7 Value Selections
Grounded is likely underlaid given universal confidence and proven track dominance among all pick pony analysts. Twilight Dancer presents a value angle with three placings in the recent prep despite receiving limited consensus support. Eddie The Great offers exceptional value in show wagering at premium odds.
Race 8 Value Selections
Rebel Empire presents excellent value in place/show wagering given the consistent placement record across the prep. Downtown Connector offers a potential surprise winner at premium odds after the 26-week absence. Awesome Move may offer underlay potential at competitive pricing given analyst support levels.
Race 9 Value Selections
Americandreammaker represents potential value in place/show wagering following a fresh placement at the track. My Gal offers strong across-the-board play at competitive odds with consistent recent finishing position. Temple City Taboo presents overlay potential at higher odds as a contrarian choice in this competitive field.
