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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1
Win: FINAL DRAMA (3) – 43% confidence
Place: COPAZO (6) – 40% confidence
Show: CONSPIRACY FACT (4) – 75% confidence
Alternative: GREYZER (1) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: A contentious opener. Final Drama holds the plurality of Win support, but Conspiracy Fact is the most consistent presence on tickets, appearing as the Show selection on nearly 75% of ballots that include a third-place pick. Greyzer is a “boom or bust” candidate with multiple Win nods but no minor award support.
Race 2
Win: STORMY MITOLE (1) – 86% confidence
Place: CAPTURED DARLING (6) – 40% confidence
Show: SHABAM (7) – 25% confidence
Alternative: WOODS HOLE (2) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Stormy Mitole is a dominant favorite, sweeping the top spot across almost all handicapping services. The race for the minor awards is fluid, with Captured Darling holding a slight edge for the Place spot over Shabam and Woods Hole.
Race 3
Win: BLAZING AFFAIR (6) – 63% confidence
Place: MAGALA (1) – 66% confidence
Show: BIT OF FROST (5) – 50% confidence
Alternative: LOVE THAT GAL (3) – 13% confidence
Race Notes: A clearly defined hierarchy exists here. Blazing Affair is the strong consensus Win choice, while Magala is the overwhelming consensus Place pick (selected for second place by 4 out of 6 sources). The vertical structure of 6-1-5 appears highly probable according to the data.
Race 4
Win: WIN BET ONLY (4) – 83% confidence
Place: SISTERLITHIC (1) – 25% confidence
Show: FIRST HATHOR (3) – 33% confidence
Alternative: VALI VALI VAL (8) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: Win Bet Only commands massive support, securing 5 out of 6 Win votes. The analysts are split on the underneath positions, with Sisterlithic, Precious Sight, First Hathor, and D Orbie’s Girl all receiving scattered votes for Place.
Race 5
Win: ROSE VIEW (2) – 33% confidence
Place: TRUE MYTH (1) – 25% confidence
Show: TIC TIC TIC BOOM (5) – 33% confidence
Alternative: OMIKAMI (9) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: This is the most chaotic race on the card. Four different horses (Rose View, True Myth, She Takes Cash, Omikami) received Win selections. There is no clear agreement on any position, suggesting a high-variance outcome suitable for spread wagers.
Race 6
Win: BLUE FASHION (3) – 83% confidence
Place: ANNA JEAN (5) – 50% confidence
Show: MOONSCAPE (7) – 33% confidence
Alternative: PRINCESS NORMA (10) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: Blue Fashion is a standout “single,” missing a clean sweep of Win votes by only one handicapper. The battle for second is primarily between Anna Jean and Moonscape, with Anna Jean edging out the consensus for the Place slot.
Race 7
Win: BOTTLE ROCKET (5) – 33% confidence
Place: TIMELESS ROSE (4) – 50% confidence
Show: ATMIDNIGHT (6) – 25% confidence
Alternative: TINTA ROJA (11) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: A murky turf event with low confidence. Bottle Rocket and Atmidnight split the top opinions, but Timeless Rose is a very strong consensus indicator for the Place position, appearing there on half of the available tickets.
Race 8
Win: RAMAJAY (1) – 86% confidence
Place: ARRAIGNED (3) – 75% confidence
Show: AGENDUM (4) – 50% confidence
Alternative: GOLD LIGHT (8) – 50% confidence
Race Notes: The most rigid consensus on the card. Ramajay over Arraigned is the overwhelming prediction, with 6 of 7 analysts picking Ramajay to win and 3 of 4 analysts with Place picks selecting Arraigned for second. The 1-3 Exacta is the data-driven play.
Race 9
Win: GONCORA (2) – 38% confidence
Place: DOUBLE NEAT (8) – 33% confidence
Show: LATE CALL (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: REAL SAVVY (4) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: A competitive finale. Goncora holds a slight edge in Win support, but Real Savvy has emerged as a dangerous contender with support from FanDuel and Sporting Life. Double Neat is a consistent presence in the top two spots.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Trifecta Box utilizing FINAL DRAMA (3), CONSPIRACY FACT (4), and COPAZO (6). These three are the most frequently cited horses across all slots.
Race 3: Exacta Straight of BLAZING AFFAIR (6) over MAGALA (1). The data shows a rare alignment where analysts explicitly prefer #6 for first and #1 for second.
Race 6: Cold Exacta of BLUE FASHION (3) over ANNA JEAN (5). Blue Fashion is a solid anchor, and Anna Jean has more specific support for the runner-up spot than Moonscape.
Race 8: Trifecta Key of RAMAJAY (1) over ARRAIGNED (3) over AGENDUM (4) and GOLD LIGHT (8). The 1-3-All structure is highly efficient given the strong confidence in the top two.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: DENYING (5) is a 33-1 shot on the morning line but was selected to Win by Betting News. This discrepancy between odds and expert opinion represents a significant overlay.
Race 2: RED ELEANOR (8) is a 9-1 shot selected to Win by FanDuel. In a race dominated by a heavy favorite, this is the only contrarian play with data support.
Race 7: TINTA ROJA (11) offers value at 6-1. Selected to Win by FanDuel in a race where the favorites have shaky consensus, this horse is a prime candidate to upset the board.
Race 9: REAL SAVVY (4) is gaining traction as a Win candidate from multiple sources despite Goncora’s favoritism. This horse may offer a better price than the public favorite.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The day’s best opportunities for “Singles” are Race 2 (STORMY MITOLE), Race 4 (WIN BET ONLY), Race 6 (BLUE FASHION), and Race 8 (RAMAJAY). All four horses command over 80% Win confidence from the panel. Of these, Race 8 offers the most clarity underneath with ARRAIGNED (3) as a lock for second, whereas the others have more fluid races for the minor awards.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 5 and Race 7 remain the most difficult puzzles. In Race 5, the vote is split four ways for the win, making it a “spread” race where you should use the “All” button in multi-race sequences. Race 1 is also deceptively tricky; while FINAL DRAMA (3) is the favorite, the high confidence in CONSPIRACY FACT (4) for the Show spot suggests the favorite is vulnerable and the #4 horse is a safer “on the board” play.
Multi-Race Sequences
A logical Pick 3 sequence spans Race 6 through Race 8. The structure allows for a cost-effective ticket:
- Race 6: Single BLUE FASHION (3).
- Race 7: Spread deep with BOTTLE ROCKET (5), ATMIDNIGHT (6), TIMELESS ROSE (4), and TINTA ROJA (11).
- Race 8: Single RAMAJAY (1) (or use the 1/3 protective duo).
Exotic Value Opportunities
In Race 3, the consensus is so strong for the 6-1 finish that the Superfecta becomes a viable value play. By keying BLAZING AFFAIR (6) / MAGALA (1) / BIT OF FROST (5) in the top three slots and spreading the fourth leg, you can capture a decent payout for a predictable race outcome.
Environmental/Track Factors
Note that Race 5, Race 7, and Race 9 are on the Turf. These races consistently show lower Win confidence and higher variance in the analyst picks compared to the dirt races today. Be cautious with heavy favorites on the grass and look for price horses like TINTA ROJA (11) in Race 7 or REAL SAVVY (4) in Race 9 to maximize ROI.
Key Takeaways
- Trust the Singles: Do not try to beat STORMY MITOLE (R2) or BLUE FASHION (R6); the consensus is too overwhelming.
- Exploit the Exactas: Maximize value in Race 3 (6-1) and Race 8 (1-3) by playing cold Exactas rather than spreading capital.
- Hunt on Turf: Focus your longshot plays in the turf events (Races 5, 7, 9) where analyst disagreement creates pricing inefficiencies.
