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Race 1, Maiden Claiming, 350Y, Dirt, $10,600 Purse WIN
Win: 7 Tellem Now (71% confidence)🥇
Place: 1 Mr Mo Dacious (57% confidence)🥈
Show: 2 Pip Pior Es Nada (43% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 6 Msblue (29% confidence)
Notes: Multiple analysts agree that Tellem Now is the one to beat after a promising debut placing at Turf Paradise. The horse is considered the testing material for this race. One analyst suggests that Mr Mo Dacious comes into this in good heart and is sure to be a challenger. Msblue is expected to run fitter from past attempts and could be an exotic inclusion, while Pip Pior Es Nada could surprise if the leaders falter.
Race 2, Optional Claiming, 350Y, Dirt, $16,600 Purse
Win: 4 All Night Roc (83% confidence)🥉
Place: 3 Daddys Doll (50% confidence)
Show: 5 Cowboy Bar Cartel (50% confidence)
Alternative: 8 Prizefighter V (17% confidence)🥈
Notes: Pick Pony analysts see this as a toss-up between the top two selections. Daddys Doll is returning from a 25-week spell and has an impressive record as a favorite. All Night Roc is also returning from a break and is noted for a strong finish. Cowboy Bar Cartel is considered dangerous after a narrow miss in his last start at the track.
Race 3, Claiming, 1430Y, Dirt, $12,000 Purse
Win: 4 K R Rules (60% confidence)🥈
Place: 6 The Scent (80% confidence)
Show: 5 Mischievous Paddy (40% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 2 Bourbon Dancer (60% confidence)🥉
Notes: The Scent is expected to take the power of beating after a good third-place finish when fresh. K R Rules is also a strong contender, having placed second on resuming. Bourbon Dancer, a last-start winner, faces a rise in distance, and Mischievous Paddy is noted for exotic wagers.
Race 4, Claiming, 990Y, Dirt, $10,000 PurseWin: 6 Colonel Punch (60% confidence)
Place: 4 Taino House (60% confidence)🥉
Show: 3 Khaiky’s Command (80% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 1 Dominate (40% confidence)
Notes: Pick Pony analysts suggest this is a toss-up between the top two. Colonel Punch placed at long odds last start and won two runs back. Taino House is returning from a break and is considered for exotics. Khaiky’s Command is also returning from a spell and finished in the money last start.
Race 5, Maiden Claiming, 990Y, Dirt, $8,500 Purse
Win: 9 Social Status (50% confidence)🥉
Place: 8 Denada (33% confidence)🥈
Show: 5 Magic Authority (50% confidence)
Alternative: 1 Lani’s Sweetheart (33% confidence)
Notes: Denada is returning from a spell and is considered the testing material. Social Status placed as a favorite in its last start. Magic Authority is a first-time starter noted as a potential upset, while Itsgrandsalamitime could also threaten.
Race 6, Claiming, 1210Y, Dirt, $9,000 Purse WIN
Win: 3 R Barracuda (100% confidence)🥇
Place: 1 Tomorrownevercomes (50% confidence)
Show: 9 Six Hot Grands (33% confidence)
Alternative: 2 Sawtooth Bow (33% confidence)
Notes: R Barracuda is a key chance following a close second-place finish last start. El Gallito is considered dangerous, while Tomorrownevercomes is returning from a spell and is well-drawn. Six Hot Grands is noted as a real danger in the race after a recent third-place finish.
Race 7, Claiming, 8F, Turf, $14,000 Purse
Win: 3 Brother Reid (83% confidence)
Place: 1 Sonic Speed (50% confidence)🥇
Show: 5 Crafty King (50% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 4 Stradivarian (17% confidence)
Notes: Stradivarian is in strong form with two recent wins and will be tough to beat. Crafty King was a last-start winner and shouldn’t be dismissed. Sonic Speed benefits from a perfect draw. Brother Reid is also considered in with a chance.
Race 8, Allowance Optional Claiming, 1430Y, Dirt, $21,000 Purse BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 9 Departure (50% confidence)Place: 4 Lansdowne (33% confidence)🥉
Show: 8 Listentothemusic (33% confidence)🥈
Alternative: 7 Mr. Who (33% confidence)🥇
Notes: Lansdowne is a major contender after a strong win last start and has excellent form at the track. Departure is returning from a break and performs well at Turf Paradise. Listentothemusic placed when fresh, and Fifty Cinco was a last-start winner despite being unwanted in the betting.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Pick Pony analysts suggest considering the following exotic wagers based on the consensus of expert selections.
Race 1: Analysts note that with strong consensus around Tellem Now, keying this horse in exacta and trifecta wagers could be a strategy. Boxing Tellem Now (7) with Mr Mo Dacious (1), Pip Pior Es Nada (2), and Msblue (6) might cover the most likely outcomes.
Race 3: With divided opinion between The Scent and K R Rules, an exacta box of (6) The Scent and (4) K R Rules seems logical. For trifectas, using these two with Bourbon Dancer (2) and Mischievous Paddy (5) could provide value.
Race 6: Given the unanimous selection of R Barracuda (3) for the win, using this horse as a key in exotic bets is a primary strategy. A trifecta key with R Barracuda (3) over Tomorrownevercomes (1), Six Hot Grands (9), and Sawtooth Bow (2) is a recommended approach.
Race 7: Brother Reid (3) has strong backing from the experts. An exacta box with Sonic Speed (1) and Crafty King (5) could be a solid play. Including Law Abiding (2) in trifecta and superfecta tickets is also suggested by some analysts.
Value Play Observations
Based on the analysis, Pick Pony analysts have identified several potential value plays.
Race 2: Cowboy Bar Cartel (5) is mentioned as dangerous and could offer value in exacta and trifecta pools if the top two favorites falter.
Race 4: Taino House (4) and Khaiky’s Command (3) are consistently mentioned for exotic bets and could provide value, especially if the favorite, Colonel Punch, does not perform as expected.
Race 5: An analyst points to Magic Authority (5) as a potential upset on its first start. Given the open nature of a maiden race, this newcomer could offer significant value.
Race 8: The race appears wide open according to the picks. While Departure (9) has the most support, horses like Mr. Who (7), Fifty Cinco (6), and Listentothemusic (8) are all picked by at least one expert and could provide good returns if they hit the board.
