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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: 8 Mahoney Road (67% Confidence)🥇
Place: 7 Taillights (50% Confidence)🥈
Show: 9 Karma Director (33% Confidence)
Alternative: 4 Tom’s Spirit (33% Confidence)
Can’t imagine one of the top two not winning. Karma Director is first-up after a 12-week break and won last start at Belterra Park, making him a genuine contender. Mahoney Road resumes from a nine-week spell and finished midfield last start at Hawthorne but remains a real threat. Tom’s Spirit is first-up after a 10-week spell and only just missed last start, finishing a neck back from the winner at Belterra Park; don’t treat lightly. Taillights is in strong form with three wins from 13 attempts this campaign and tries this distance for the first time, looking threatening. Black White N Gold finished a close second last time out and could go one better here.
Race 2 – Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: 9 Bucyk (50% Confidence)Place: 1 Big Walt (33% Confidence)🥈
Show: 2 Odorico (33% Confidence)🥇
Alternative: 10 Cannon (33% Confidence)
Looks like a toss-up between the top two selections. Bucyk let-up and disappointed when placing as favorite last start at Woodbine but has two placings from three runs this prep, making him well placed. Big Walt is first-up after a 27-week break and drawn perfectly, posing a real threat. Patronage finished midfield last start at Turfway Park and won once this prep at Horseshoe Indianapolis three runs back; could upset. Cannon let-up and won once this prep at Ellis Park three runs back. Up To No Good drops in class and could bounce back to form.
Race 3 – Allowance – 6 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: 1 Smokey Smokey (86% Confidence)🥉
Place: 2 Can’t Hush This (57% Confidence)🥈
Show: 5 Demolition Duke (43% Confidence)Alternative: 4 Heavy Pour (29% Confidence)
Smokey Smokey was narrowly beaten when heavily backed last start at Churchill Downs and comes from a strong camp; commands respect as the one to beat. Can’t Hush This finished in the middle of the pack last start at Churchill Downs and won once this prep three runs back; capable of getting into the money with a bit of luck. Heavy Pour resumes from an 11-week spell and is trained at an astute stable. Demolition Duke has placed in stakes races recently.
Race 4 – Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt
Win: 9 Jus Too Fly (33% Confidence)
Place: 6 Agent Kelly (50% Confidence)
Show: 8 Ask Arthur (50% Confidence)
Alternative: 4 Your Mission (33% Confidence)🥇
Jus Too Fly was narrowly beaten as a favorite last start at Turfway Park and has two placings from eight runs this prep, making for a key chance. Agent Kelly only just missed last start, finishing a length back from the winner at Laurel Park, and looks threatening. Your Mission comes from a strong camp; don’t treat lightly. Ask Arthur is back from a seven-week let-up and drops in class, offering a strong place chance. Finn Mcsorley has solid recent form and looks well placed to land this.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 Miles – Dirt
Win: 14 Plaza Cue (50% Confidence)🥈
Place: 5 Glamorama (50% Confidence)
Show: 12 Chelsey’s Choice (33% Confidence)
Alternative: 6 Sonhador (17% Confidence)
Can’t imagine one of the top two not winning. Glamorama was amongst the placegetters last start running second at Churchill Downs and comes from a strong camp; among the main chances. Sonhador is back from a let-up and placed in all previous races as a favorite; hard to hold out. Chelsey’s Choice resumes from a spell of 40 weeks and has yet to miss the placegetters in three runs. Plaza Cue has been knocking on the door and looks ready to break through.
Race 6 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: 2 Hi Barbie (50% Confidence)
Place: 7 Sugar Hi (50% Confidence)
Show: 3 Cavatelli (33% Confidence)
Alternative: 5 Cachinnation (17% Confidence)
Will be a close run race between the top picks. Sugar Hi was amongst the placegetters last start running second at Churchill Downs when fresh and comes back to race in non-metro; a close top pick. Hi Barbie is first-up after a 23-week break and has shown promise in higher grades; hard to hold out if building on recent placed efforts. Cachinnation resumes from a 12-week spell and was amongst the placegetters last start running third at Laurel Park. Cavatelli ran eighth last start at Horseshoe Indianapolis but could upset.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: 7 Sam’s Treasure (57% Confidence)
Place: 1 Dala (57% Confidence)🥇
Show: 5 Fancy Caber Neigh (43% Confidence)🥈Alternative: 4 Tanya Showers (14% Confidence)
Dala was a last start winner at Churchill Downs when fresh and is drawn ideally; tough to beat. Sam’s Treasure is back from an eight-week let-up and coming off a win at Keeneland; looks well placed to build on her recent win. Fancy Caber Neigh is a winner of three in a row after a last start win at Kentucky Downs and comes from a strong camp. Tanya Showers is coming off a win at Mahoning Valley and is in with a chance.
Race 8 – Florence Stakes – 1 1/4 Miles – Dirt
Win: 10 Ayra Stark (50% Confidence)🥈
Place: 12 Speed Shopper (50% Confidence)🥇
Show: 3 Duvet Day (50% Confidence)
Alternative: 11 Peak Popularity (33% Confidence)
Ayra Stark resumes after a nine-week spell and is coming off a win at Keeneland; hard to go past. Peak Popularity let-up and was amongst the placegetters last start running second at Horseshoe Indianapolis; looks threatening. Speed Shopper resumes after a spell of 11 weeks and showed promise when runner-up in a Grade 2 last time. Duvet Day comes from a good stable and has been consistent in tougher company; could upset.
Race 9 – Allowance – 1 Mile – Dirt
Win: 4 Tre Italiani (67% Confidence)🥉
Place: 8 Mount Horeb (67% Confidence)Show: 3 Lucius Verus (33% Confidence)Alternative: 5 Aristotle (33% Confidence)
Tre Italiani has won at Horseshoe Indianapolis and placed twice this prep; looks well-placed to build on a strong runner-up effort last time out. Mount Horeb was narrowly beaten as a favorite last start at Churchill Downs and placed in all previous races as a favorite; still in this. Atlal is first-up after an 11-week spell and drawn ideally. Aristotle placed last start at Woodbine and won once this prep at Woodbine three runs back.
Race 10 – Maiden Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: 4 Versed (67% Confidence)🥇
Place: 2 Chatterfield (50% Confidence)
Show: 6 A Lotta Dough (33% Confidence)
Alternative: 7 Blessed Warrior (17% Confidence)🥉
Hard race to enthuse with so little exposed form. Versed was in the money last start running second at Churchill Downs and has three placings from five runs this prep; looks well-placed to build on that effort in a higher grade. Lion Dart is on debut and drawn the rails; looks threatening. A Lotta Dough is a first starter from a good stable and could threaten. Blessed Warrior ran 12 lengths back from the winner at only start at Churchill Downs but cannot be ruled out.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
The Pick Pony analysts suggest this race should prove a reliable form reference. A trifecta strategy using the top three consensus picks (Mahoney Road, Taillights, Karma Director) is recommended, as analysts note “Can’t imagine one of the top two not winning.”
Race 2
Analysts describe this as a “stand-out trifecta with top three picks” or a “toss up between the top two.” A box trifecta including Bucyk, Big Walt, and Odorico is a strong consideration.
Race 3
Analysts highlight a potential Quinella with Love Her Lots (though noted for a different race in some feeds, “Can’t Hush This” is the consistent strong place contender here). Smokey Smokey is a standout favorite, making him a solid key for exotic wheels.
Race 5
This race is flagged as “Can’t imagine one of the top two not winning” by analysts. A Quinella or Exacta box with Glamorama and Plaza Cue is the logical play.
Race 6
Analysts predict a “close run race between the top picks.” Sugar Hi and Hi Barbie are the clear standouts for an Exacta box.
Race 7
Dala and Sam’s Treasure are consistently ranked top two. An Exacta box is recommended. Fancy Caber Neigh is noted as a “real danger” and should be included in Trifectas.
Race 8 (Florence Stakes)
Analysts suggest Ayra Stark is “hard to go past.” Using Ayra Stark as a key in Trifectas with Speed Shopper and Duvet Day (who could upset) is the recommended strategy.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: 4 Tom’s Spirit
Analysts note he “only just missed last start” and warn “don’t treat lightly,” suggesting he offers value underneath the favorites.
Race 2: 10 Cannon
Highlighted to “Keep an eye on a Robert C. Cline trained horse” with a “sneaky chance.”
Race 3: 4 Heavy Pour
Identified as a horse “for the exotics” from an astute stable, offering potential value outside the favorite.
Race 4: 8 Ask Arthur
Analysts note he “drops in class and could bounce back,” making him a strong value play for the placings.
Race 5: 12 Chelsey’s Choice
Resuming from a long spell but has “yet to miss the placegetters,” indicated as a horse that “cannot be ruled out” at potentially higher odds.
Race 6: 3 Cavatelli
Analysts advise to “Keep an eye on a Eric N. Foster trained horse” who could upset.
Race 7: 4 Tanya Showers
Coming off a win and flagged to “Keep an eye on a Robert B. Hess, Jr. trained horse,” presenting an “in with a chance” value opportunity.
Race 8: 11 Peak Popularity
Listed as a horse that “looks threatening” after placing at Horseshoe Indianapolis, potentially offering value against the favorite.
Race 9: 6 Coalmoon & 1 Atlal
Atlal is noted to have “each-way claims” fresh, and Coalmoon is another to consider based on consistency.
Race 10: 1 Lion Dart
On debut and drawn the rails, this horse “looks threatening” and could offer value in a race with little exposed form.
