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Race 1 Claiming 8 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Whiskey Drinker (5) – 43% confidence
Place: Janes Girls (4) – 60% confidence
Show: Fella’s Sister (3) – 43% confidence
Alternative: One Eye Super Fly (2) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: A highly competitive opener with opinion sharply divided. Whiskey Drinker appears on every single ticket analyzed, often in the top two positions, suggesting high reliability. Janes Girls is a consistent board-hitter, making her a key component for trifectas.
Race 2 Maiden Special Weight 6 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Runaround Rowdy (1) – 43% confidence
Place: Love U Father (2) – 43% confidence
Show: Red Hot Shot (4) – 57% confidence
Alternative: Flat Out Luck (5) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: This is effectively a match race in the eyes of the analysts between Runaround Rowdy and Love U Father. Runaround Rowdy holds a slight edge in total mentions, but Love U Father is the preferred alternative. Red Hot Shot is the clear consensus choice for the show dough.
Race 3 Maiden Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Trish (5) – 33% confidence
Place: Cashout Carol (3) – 33% confidence
Show: Girls Knicks Now (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Bougie Like (8) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: A chaotic betting landscape with four different horses receiving win votes. Trish and Girls Knicks Now are the most consistent chart-toppers, but the presence of Cashout Carol and Bougie Like as top picks for some analysts suggests vulnerability in the favorites.
Race 4 Maiden Special Weight 6 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Endless Skyway (1) – 67% confidence
Place: Get Dreamy (5) – 33% confidence
Show: Captain Flatter (6) – 50% confidence
Alternative: El Protonico (2) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Endless Skyway commands strong authority here with two-thirds of analysts predicting a win. Get Dreamy is the only other horse to receive top-slot consideration, making them a formidable exacta pair. Captain Flatter is the consensus third wheel.
Race 5 Claiming 5.5 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Stormy’s Revenge (6) – 83% confidence
Place: Miss Escapade (3) – 33% confidence
Show: Runnin On Promises (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Bold Appeal (5) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: Stormy’s Revenge is the strongest consensus play on the entire card, with near-unanimous agreement on the win. Miss Escapade is the clear second choice, often completing the exacta in analyst models.
Race 6 Maiden Special Weight 6 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Lucy’s Halo (3) – 50% confidence
Place: Black Velvet Rose (4) – 33% confidence
Show: Sleepy Music (5) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Jerry’s Lady (7) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Lucy’s Halo is a firm favorite, anchoring the majority of expert opinions. However, the minor awards are contested, with Black Velvet Rose and Sleepy Music swapping positions in various projections.
Race 7 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Speight And Malice (4) – 57% confidence
Place: Great Runner (5) – 29% confidence
Show: Kaely’s Brother (2) – 29% confidence
Alternative: Sharp Lorenzo (8) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: Speight And Malice has emerged as the clear leader in this field, though Great Runner has a dedicated following and should not be dismissed. The bottom of the ticket is fluid, with Sharp Lorenzo and Kaely’s Brother offering value underneath.
Race 8 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Crystal Claire (2) – 50% confidence
Place: Rainbow Angel (7) – 33% confidence
Show: Mamashavnahotflash (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Gettin Out Of Here (5) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: A three-way battle for supremacy. Crystal Claire edges out the competition with half of the win votes, but Mamashavnahotflash and Rainbow Angel have strong support. The lack of consensus on the minor placings suggests a “box” strategy might be safer here.
Race 9 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt
Win: Woman’s Intuition (3) – 50% confidence
Place: Prairie Brat (7) – 50% confidence
Show: Belle Blaze (12) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Nalla D (4) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Woman’s Intuition is the narrow favorite to close out the card, but Belle Blaze has significant “live longshot” support. Prairie Brat is the most consistent place-getter in the data, appearing as the runner-up in half the projections.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: The consensus points to a tight duel. A Trifecta Box of Whiskey Drinker (5), Janes Girls (4), and Fella’s Sister (3) covers the three horses that appear on nearly every ticket.
Race 2: With a strong 1-2 punch at the top, a Straight Exacta 1-2 (Runaround Rowdy over Love U Father) and a reverse 2-1 saver is prudent. For the trifecta, key 1 and 2 over 4 (Red Hot Shot).
Race 4: Exacta Wheel using Endless Skyway (1) over Get Dreamy (5) and Captain Flatter (6). The data suggests the winner is likely the 1, with the 5 and 6 fighting for the minor spoils.
Race 5: The strongest single on the card. Trifecta Key Stormy’s Revenge (6) over Miss Escapade (3) and Runnin On Promises (1). A straight 6-3 Exacta is also highly indicated.
Race 6: Superfecta Part-Wheel: Key Lucy’s Halo (3) in the first position, use Black Velvet Rose (4) and Sleepy Music (5) in the second and third slots, and spread deep for fourth.
Race 9: A value-seeking Exacta Box of Woman’s Intuition (3), Prairie Brat (7), and Belle Blaze (12). Including Belle Blaze allows for a better payout if the split opinion on the favorites falters.
Value Play Observations
Race 3: Girls Knicks Now (1) is a value watch. While Trish (5) is the nominal favorite, multiple analysts placed Girls Knicks Now on top, suggesting she may be overlaid if the public bets heavily on the 5.
Race 6: Sleepy Music (5) is an interesting contrarian play. Picked to win by one source but relegated to third or fourth by others, any drift in odds could create a positive expectation wager given the win potential identified.
Race 9: Belle Blaze (12) represents the most significant divergence in the data. Two sources pick her to win outright, while others relegate her to the bottom of the exotics. If she goes off at mid-range odds, she offers excellent value against the more universally acclaimed Woman’s Intuition.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The most reliable races on the card appear to be Race 5 and Race 4. In Race 5, Stormy’s Revenge (6) commands 83% confidence from the analyst panel, making this the anchor of the day. Similarly, Endless Skyway (1) in Race 4 holds a commanding 67% win projection. These two runners should form the backbone of any multi-race sequence tickets.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 1 and Race 3 offer the most volatility. In Race 1, the field is split between Whiskey Drinker and Fella’s Sister, while Race 3 sees votes scattered across four different horses. These races are “spread” legs where bettors should use wider coverage (using ALL or multiple backups) to survive potential upsets that could knock out a large portion of the betting pool.
Multi-Race Sequences
A logical Pick 3 sequence from Race 4 through Race 6 presents a “Key-Key-Spread” structure. You can rely heavily on Endless Skyway (R4) and Stormy’s Revenge (R5) to keep ticket costs low, allowing for a broader capitalization in Race 6, where opinion on the minor placings behind Lucy’s Halo is more fractured.
Exotic Value Opportunities
Race 9 offers a prime opportunity for value. The disagreement regarding Belle Blaze (12)—seen as a winner by some and an afterthought by others—suggests the public might let her drift. Structuring exactas and trifectas that use her in the top two slots could yield outsized returns compared to the more predictable outcomes in the middle of the card.
Environmental/Track Factors
The forecast calls for 68°F and a dirt surface. The consistency of the picks suggests no major weather-related track bias is anticipated by the analysts. However, pay attention to the early races; if the inside rail (Post 1) is winning early (note Runaround Rowdy in R2 and Endless Skyway in R4), upgrade inside draws in later races like Race 8 (Mamashavnahotflash).
Key Takeaways
- Anchor your day on Stormy’s Revenge (Race 5). The data is overwhelming.
- Attack the volatility in Race 9. Don’t settle for the favorite; the 12 horse is a live runner with upside.
- Play vertical (Exacta/Tri) in Races 2 and 4. The tiers are clearly defined, making these races more suitable for precision bets than wide spreads.
