Pick Pony Track Condition Report — Churchill Downs, November 5, 2026

Weather Forecast

Sunny, with a high near 68°F, an estimated 8% chance of precipitation, and southwest winds at 10–15 mph.

Track Surface & Bias

Rain and showers are expected in the preceding 24 hours, followed by clearing weather, so the dirt course could begin good and tighten toward fast as it dries; the turf should be good to firm if kept open. Churchill's dirt has historically offered a modest inside and early-position edge, especially in sprints, while inside-stalking runners are also attractive on the turf; outside posts become less disadvantageous in longer dirt routes.

Handicapper’s Edge

Give extra weight to dirt horses with tactical speed, especially those drawn inside and capable of securing position without overexertion. Treat recent wet-track form as a useful tiebreaker early in the card, but favor proven fast-track speed if the surface dries as anticipated; on turf, prioritize runners that can stay near the pace from an efficient inside trip.