What a week it was for Pick Pony's AI Picks system! Across all three algorithms, our AI analyzed 612 races and delivered consistently impressive results with the vast majority of races now settled. Algo1 closed the week hitting 30.4% wins and a stellar 61.7% in-the-money (ITM) rate on top picks. Algo2 led the pack with a remarkable 32.8% win rate and 62.8% ITM, while Algo3 posted 32.3% wins and a 62.0% ITM — all three algorithms firing on all cylinders simultaneously. A small handful of races across each algorithm (14–16 per algo) are still pending final results, so those numbers have room to climb even higher. On the exotic side, Algo3 shone brightest with 59 Exacta hits and 25 Trifecta scores, meaning our AI wasn't just finding winners — it was pinpointing the right horses to build multi-leg tickets around all week long.
Standout Wins
The longshot department was where our AI truly flexed its muscle this week. Perhaps the most impressive call of the entire seven-day stretch came on April 24 at Keeneland, where all three algorithms independently tabbed MORE CHAMPAGNE at 12-1 morning line odds — and the horse delivered a convincing win. That kind of cross-algorithm consensus on a double-digit longshot is exactly what Pick Pony's system is built for. Similarly, CARBONITE (12-1, PRX) gave Algo1 subscribers a massive payoff on April 21, while CYBER STORM 918 (8-1, RPX) was another longshot gem locked in by all three algorithms on April 23. The hits kept rolling with THE BEASTER BUNNY (8-1) and BAYOU FLYER (8-1) adding more value-packed victories to the ledger, alongside fan favorites like MASHALLAH (6-1, KEE) and STINGER BEE (6-1, PRX), both of which were flagged by every single algorithm this week. When all three of our AI engines agree on a price horse — it's worth paying close attention.
Key Insights
This week's results reinforced a few powerful themes emerging from our AI's data patterns. First, multi-algorithm consensus picks proved to be a strong signal — horses like More Champagne, Cyber Storm 918, Mashallah, and Stinger Bee appearing across Algo1, Algo2, and Algo3 simultaneously converted at an exceptional clip, suggesting that when the AI “agrees with itself,” bettors have a meaningful edge. Second, mid-tier overlays in the 5-1 to 8-1 range continued to be a sweet spot for our system, with horses like UPTOWN BADDECISIONS (5-1), SAKRA'S QUEST (5-1), and REGAL TIME (6-1) all rewarding top-pick bettors with solid returns. Tracks including Keendale, Parx, and RPX were particularly productive hunting grounds this week, and our exotic play numbers — led by Algo3's 59 Exactas and 25 Trifectas — suggest the AI's full-field analysis is giving subscribers a real leg up when building complex wagers.
Looking Ahead
With a few pending races still to be settled, this week's final numbers may look even better than they already do — and that's saying something given how strong the performance has been across the board. Keep your eyes on next week's card as our algorithms continue to refine their edge on overlays and consensus plays — if this week is any indication, the best picks from Pick Pony's AI are just getting started! 🏇
Weekly Performance Summary
Algorithm Algo1 Winner
Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta).
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
612
Top Pick Wins (1st)
183
30.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
114
19.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
73
12.2%
Top Pick ITM
370
62.1%
Pending
16
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo1 Winner)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
54
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
32
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
15
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
17
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
39
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo3 Winner
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
612
Top Pick Wins (1st)
195
32.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
115
19.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
66
11.0%
Top Pick ITM
376
62.9%
Pending
14
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo3 Winner)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
61
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
36
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
25
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
36
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo1 Longshot
Longshot picks isolate races where the AI's top-ranked horse had morning-line odds of 8-1 or greater — horses the betting public considers unlikely to win. These are higher-risk, higher-reward selections where the model identified an edge that the public odds did not reflect. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition (typically 10-15% of races), win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and exotic hits rather than raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance. The same Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic metrics apply as described above.
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
2
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo2 Longshot
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
567
Top Pick Wins (1st)
42
7.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
41
7.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
60
10.9%
Top Pick ITM
143
26.0%
Pending
17
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo2 Longshot)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
0
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
1
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
2
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo3 Longshot
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
567
Top Pick Wins (1st)
41
7.4%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
36
6.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
60
10.8%
Top Pick ITM
137
24.8%
Pending
14
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo3 Longshot)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
0
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
1
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
2
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Consensus Expert Picks
Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
15
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
35
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Performance by Track
The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Each algorithm (Algo 1, 2, 3) uses different optimized weights, so their performance varies by track — comparing across algorithms at a specific track helps identify which model is strongest for that venue.
