Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line
Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol
▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races
Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger)
Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend
Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line
AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
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AI Model Score History
AI Model History Guide
Lines
Each solid line shows this horse’s model score over its last 10 races: blue = Mod1, green = Mod2, amber = Mod3.
Dashed Lines
Dashed lines represent the current race’s field average for each model — a score below the dashed line indicates the horse ranked below average in this model’s assessment.
Higher is Stronger
All three model scores are 0–100: a higher number means the model rates this horse more favorably among the field.
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Track Bias by Lane
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Race Pace Bias
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Total Pace
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E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
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Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
Bars (per post)
Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line
Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line
Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles
Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border
Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
Rating
The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed
Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace
Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse
The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
Axes
X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants
Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers. Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles. Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing. Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines
Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse
Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
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AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
Winner Models (green)
Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red)
Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue)
Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse
Highlighted with a darker column background.
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Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
Slider
Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order
Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario
Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — EarlyE2 — MidLP — Stretch
🏁 GateFinish 🏁
Track Bias◀ CloserSpeed ▶0
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Stat
vs. Current Card
vs. All Horses
Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages.
Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating
A
A
Pace Trip Longshot
—
—
Connections Longshot
—
—
Situational Longshot
—
—
Speed
B
F
Early Pace
A
B
Mid Pace
A
D
Late Pace
B
D
Finish Pos
B
A
Dirt Speed
A
D
Turf Speed
C
D
Distance Speed
A
D
Trainer Effectiveness
C
D
Jockey Effectiveness
C
D
3rd Party Ratings
A
D
Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively.
Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed
C
F
Early Pace
A
B
Mid Pace
A
D
Late Pace
B
D
Sprint FPS
B
B
Route FPS
B
C
Trainer Effectiveness
C
D
Jockey Effectiveness
C
D
3rd Party Ratings
A
D
Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions.
Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
What a week it was for Pick Pony's AI! Across all three algorithms, our system analyzed 576 races, with roughly 548–549 settled and a handful still pending results. The numbers speak for themselves: Algo1 led the charge with a 34.2% win rate and an impressive 68.1% in-the-money rate on top picks, while Algo2 posted the week's best ITM mark at 69.3% with a 34.3% win rate. Algo3 held strong as well, finishing at 33.3% wins and 67.4% ITM. Across nearly 550 settled races per algorithm, finding your top pick in the money more than two-thirds of the time is outstanding consistency — exactly what serious handicappers need to build a winning strategy.
Standout Wins
The highlight reel this week is absolutely loaded. Algo1 delivered some of the biggest thrills, nailing multiple 6-1 morning line longshots including Mitchell's Joy (May 11, IND R1), Ur Fabulous (May 9, CTX R8), and SILVER TWILIGHT (May 9, SRP R4) — all going off at 6-1 and all hitting the wire first. Determined Love (MNR R4) came in at 5-1, joined by MERMAID, SHADOW DANCER, and FRIAR NEWTON — each a 5-1 shot that rewarded believers in our AI's process. Algo2 had its own standout stretch, rattling off an impressive five 4-1 winners on May 11 alone, including BELLE BOTTOMS, QUIET AMIGO, and NUN GIMEL HAY PO at Thistledown and Mountaineer. Meanwhile, Algo3 confirmed several of those same calls independently, with shared top picks like SILVER TWILIGHT, WRITE OFF JERRY, and IMTAKINITTOTHEBANK validating the power of algorithmic consensus. When two or three of our models agree on a longshot, it's worth paying close attention.
Key Insights
This week's results revealed a few compelling trends worth noting. First, overlays at mid-tier tracks — particularly at BTP, TDN, MNR, and SRP — produced some of the week's most profitable top picks, suggesting our AI is exceptionally well-calibrated at identifying undervalued horses where public money doesn't always flow efficiently. Second, the exotic ticket results were equally encouraging: Algo1 alone connected on 61 straight exactas, 22 trifectas, and 54 boxed trifectas over the week, giving exotic players plenty of reason to follow the full card. Algo2 led in straight exactas with 64 hits, while Algo3 topped boxed trifecta connections at 57 — meaning no matter which ticket type you prefer to play, our algorithms delivered. A small number of races across all three models remain pending settlement, so final weekly totals may tick even higher once those results are confirmed.
Looking Ahead
This week proved once again that Pick Pony's AI doesn't just get lucky — it finds real edges, race after race, track after track. Keep an eye on mid-week cards at the smaller regional ovals where our models have been absolutely on fire, and as always, watch for those moments when two or more algorithms align on the same top pick — that's when the magic really happens. See you at the windows! 🏇
Weekly Performance Summary
Algorithm Algo1 Winner
Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta).
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
576
Top Pick Wins (1st)
190
34.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
133
24.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
61
11.1%
Top Pick ITM
384
69.9%
Pending
27
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo1 Winner)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
62
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
49
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
22
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
21
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
56
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo3 Winner
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
576
Top Pick Wins (1st)
187
34.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
119
21.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
75
13.7%
Top Pick ITM
381
69.4%
Pending
27
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo3 Winner)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
59
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
41
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
19
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
62
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo1 Longshot
Longshot picks isolate races where the AI's top-ranked horse had morning-line odds of 8-1 or greater — horses the betting public considers unlikely to win. These are higher-risk, higher-reward selections where the model identified an edge that the public odds did not reflect. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition (typically 10-15% of races), win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and exotic hits rather than raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance. The same Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic metrics apply as described above.
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
491
Top Pick Wins (1st)
17
3.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
36
7.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
52
11.1%
Top Pick ITM
105
22.5%
Pending
24
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo1 Longshot)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
1
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
0
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Algorithm Algo3 Longshot
Metric
Count
Rate
Total Races
491
Top Pick Wins (1st)
20
4.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)
38
8.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)
46
9.8%
Top Pick ITM
104
22.2%
Pending
23
Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Algo3 Longshot)
Wager Type
Hits
Description
Exacta
0
Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta
2
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
0
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Consensus Expert Picks
Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.
Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta
12
Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta
52
Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order
Performance by Track
The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Each algorithm (Algo 1, 2, 3) uses different optimized weights, so their performance varies by track — comparing across algorithms at a specific track helps identify which model is strongest for that venue.
Mod1(W): 82 (1/8) Mod2(W): 75 (2/8) Mod3(W): 79 (3/8) Mod1-LS: 55 (6/8) Win Prob: 18.4% Value Score: 1.35 ★