Posted inAnalysis Reports

Santa Anita Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the May 9, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Santa Anita Park — Race Day Overview, Saturday, May 9, 2026

Santa Anita Park closes out its week with a compelling ten-race card headlined by the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes, a 1,430-foot turf route for three-year-old fillies that carries a $100,000 purse and draws a full field of ten. It is one of the more meaningful preps in California for sophomore fillies heading toward graded stakes competition this summer, and the field today reflects genuine depth with several well-bred, lightly-raced horses pointing toward bigger assignments.

The undercard is equally interesting. Race 3 features a $65,000 maiden special weight on turf for fillies and mares, a race type that traditionally attracts sharp first-time starters and lightly-raced horses from elite barns. Race 6 is the dirt counterpart, another $65,000 MSW that brings together several debut threats from serious outfits. The mid-card features a pair of optional claiming races on both surfaces that should be competitively priced and wagering-friendly.

Dean Keppler of the In the Money podcast has identified Midnight Cowgirl (4) in Race 5 as his Best Bet of the day at Santa Anita, a turf maiden claimer that also features Baby Needs Shoes (1) as a morning-line co-favorite. The Peter Eurton barn, always dangerous on turf, has a pair of fillies entered in Race 3 and is one of the barn situations to track across the card.

The Belmont Big A meeting running concurrently will host the Peter Pan Stakes, with a Belmont Classic spot on the line, while Santa Anita provides the California side of Saturday's major-track action.

Weather Forecast and Track Conditions

Southern California is experiencing an unseasonably mild late-spring weekend. Skies over Arcadia are expected to be mostly sunny on Saturday with temperatures reaching the mid-70s Fahrenheit by afternoon post time. There is no meaningful precipitation in the forecast, and the marine layer that can settle over the San Gabriel Valley in early morning hours is anticipated to clear well before the first post at 4:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p.m. PT).

The Santa Anita turf course has been in excellent shape throughout this spring meeting. Recent cards have shown the turf rated firm to good firm, and based on the lack of recent rainfall, expect firm conditions again on Saturday. The main track, a fast, hard-packed dirt surface, has been consistent all meeting, and with no precipitation in the forecast, it will be fast for the dirt races on the card. Turf racing in the first, third, seventh, and ninth races will benefit from firm footing, which generally favors horses with proven grass ability and horses that can run close to or on the lead.

Track and Post Position Bias

Santa Anita's dirt main track has shown a modest speed-favoring bias this spring, particularly over route distances. Early leaders and horses pressing the pace have converted at a slightly above-average rate, though the bias is not so extreme as to mechanically throw out closers. On the turf course, the rail in Santa Anita's turf chute and around the clubhouse turn can be advantageous in the early stages, but in longer routes the ground-saving rail path matters most in the final turn. In sprint turf races at Santa Anita, outside posts are not crippling, as the horses have enough room to fan and the turf course tends to play relatively fair.

For today's dirt sprints in Races 2 and 6, inside posts carry a tactical advantage if the horse breaks cleanly and can establish position. In Race 1's turf sprint, the seven-horse field is small enough that post position is a secondary concern behind pace dynamics. In the 1,980-foot turf route in Race 7, the rail post is ideal, and Jimmy Blue Jeans (1) will benefit from drawing inside.

RACE 1 — Post 4:00 PT — 1,320f | Turf | Claiming $30,000 n3l | Purse $27,000

This is a six-furlong turf sprint restricted to non-winners of three races lifetime, run on the grass for a $30,000 claiming tag. The field of seven is manageable and the pace picture is relatively clear.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

Gazon (4) and Valiant Son (7) are likely to be the two primary pace-setters in this race. Gazon (4), trained by John Sadler and ridden by E. Jaramillo, figures to break alertly from the middle of the field and look to control the tempo. Sadler is a masterful conditioner on the turf and regularly spots his horses in conditions where they have class advantages. Valiant Son (7), trained by Blaine Wright, returned from a 500-plus day layoff on April 5 and reportedly ran well in that effort according to handicappers who watched the replay. He will be sharper second-off-the-layoff and should be closer to his best today. With two speed horses projecting to the front, the pace should be honest, which sets up the closers.

Key Contenders

Gazon (4) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and deserves that respect. John Sadler is one of the elite turf trainers in California, and when he drops a horse to the n3l claiming level on grass, the horse is generally fit and competitive. E. Jaramillo has been in excellent form at this meeting and is the right pilot. Post 4 is workable in a seven-horse field. This is a horse that figures to press on or near the lead and carry that position to the wire.

Valiant Son (7) is the barn-mate to El Bromista (1) under trainer Blaine Wright, and both have different jockey assignments. Valiant Son (7) at 3-1 is particularly interesting. Handicappers noted his strong return effort on April 5 despite the extended layoff, and a second start off the bench almost always produces improvement. Juan J. Hernandez gets the call and he is one of the sharper turf jockeys in the colony. This horse is live.

Secondary Choices

Belly Up (3) at 4-1 trained by Brian Koriner with Armando Aguilar up is a horse that bears watching. Koriner is not a major stable but places horses effectively in conditions where they fit, and a grass claiming sprint at this level is where this horse has been pointed. Tribal (6) at 4-1 trained by Doug O'Neill and ridden by Antonio Fresu is another who must be considered. O'Neill has maintained a solid winning percentage this meet and Tribal (6) has turf form worth examining. With a live rider up and a solid barn behind him, he is a legitimate threat at a generous price.

Longshots

El Bromista (1) at 10-1 is the other Wright barn horse, ridden by Tyler Baze. Worth noting that Wright doubles up here and these connections typically focus their attention on the horse they believe has the better chance. Valiant Son (7) at 3-1 appears to be the stable's main hope. Spearfish (5) at 8-1 trained by Javier Jose Sierra with Cesar Belmont up is a distant threat but the connections are minor and there is little to support a win expectation at this level. Fuego Del Sol (2) at 30-1 trained by Jose Raudales is essentially a throw-out at those odds in this company.

Selections

Win: Gazon (4) Place: Valiant Son (7) Show: Tribal (6)

RACE 2 — Post 4:30 PT — 1,320f | Dirt | Claiming $25,000b | Purse $27,000

A six-furlong dirt sprint at the $25,000 claiming level with a short five-horse field. The morning line has two horses nearly inseparable: Precision (4) at 1-1 and B Grayson (1) at 2-1.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

B Grayson (1), drawing the rail, is likely to break fast and attempt to control the speed. From the inside post in a five-horse sprint, if this horse breaks cleanly he will be ahead of traffic almost immediately. Precision (4) has pace in his profile as well. The question is whether two speed horses collide early, which would benefit Desert Kat (5) as a closer. With only five horses, the pace is unlikely to collapse entirely, but a contested early duel between the top two favorites could compress the final fractions and give something to the trailing horses.

Key Contenders

Precision (4) at 1-1 trained by Hector O. Palma with E. Jaramillo up is the heavy chalk of this short field. When a horse is favored this heavily in a five-horse field with two experienced jockeys in the mix, the handicapping community has reached a strong consensus. Palma has been a steady presence at Santa Anita and his horses are typically fit when they run. Jaramillo's booking here at odds-on suggests the connections are confident.

B Grayson (1) at 2-1 trained by Val Brinkerhoff is the lone legitimate speed threat from the rail. Alfredo L. Bautista gets the call. From post 1 in a short field, this horse will dictate the pace from the outset. If Precision (4) encounters any trouble leaving the gate or spots B Grayson (1) several lengths, the favorite's task becomes harder. B Grayson (1) is the natural win alternative and the one to use against in exactas.

Secondary Choices

Desert Kat (5) at 4-1 trained by George Papaprodromou with Jeremy Laprida up is the most interesting longshot play in this race. Papaprodromou is a solid conditioner who wins at a respectable rate, and Desert Kat (5) draws the outside post in a sprint, which is manageable in a five-horse field. If the two speed horses duel, this closer has a path to the board.

Mutt Dillin (2) at 3-1 trained by Steve Knapp with Armando Aguilar up is also worthy of respect. Knapp is a reliable trainer at this level and Mutt Dillin (2) is priced attractively enough to include in exactas beneath the top two.

Longshots

Tiger Strength (3) at 20-1 trained by Ruben Gomez is difficult to endorse in a five-horse field with this odds spread. The connections are minor and the price reflects where this horse fits in this company. Eliminate.

Selections

Win: Precision (4) Place: B Grayson (1) Show: Desert Kat (5)

RACE 3 — Post 5:00 PT — 1,320f | Turf | Maiden Special Weight | Purse $65,000

A six-furlong turf maiden for fillies and mares at the $65,000 level, restricted to Santa Anita starters. This is a quality maiden race that typically attracts well-bred, lightly-raced fillies from serious outfits. Peter Eurton enters a pair in Seeking Attention (3) and Jasmine (7), a significant show of strength from a top-tier barn.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario here depends heavily on whether any first-time starters break alertly and attempt to show speed. Confidentiality (5) and High Society U (6) are co-favorites at 2-1 and both project as horses with tactical speed that can settle comfortably behind the early pace. Goodies (2) from the Philip D'Amato barn at 4-1 could show pace on the turf given D'Amato's history of prepping horses well. The Eurton pair tend to be tactical rather than wire-to-wire types, which suits the pace scenario.

Key Contenders

Confidentiality (5) at 2-1 trained by Mark Glatt with Ricardo Gonzalez up is one of the two co-favorites and merits the respect. Glatt is an underrated trainer who wins with maidens at a strong rate on the turf. Ricardo Gonzalez is a capable rider who knows the Santa Anita turf course well. From post 5, this filly will have a clear path tracking the pace.

High Society U (6) at 2-1 trained by Jonathan Thomas with E. Maldonado up is another who commands respect at this price. Jonathan Thomas has a strong reputation for bringing maiden turf fillies to the races well-prepared, and Maldonado has been booking live mounts throughout the spring. Being co-favorite with only six competitors limits the value somewhat, but this is clearly a well-regarded horse.

Secondary Choices

Seeking Attention (3) at 4-1 trained by Peter Eurton with Antonio Fresu up is a legitimate threat. Eurton's barn is one of the best in California for turf horses, and when he enters two in the same race, it is worth determining which carries the stable's primary confidence. With Fresu aboard, this appears to be the Eurton main hope. Jasmine (7) at 5-1 with Juan J. Hernandez is the second Eurton entry. Eurton may split his allegiance but Jasmine (7) with Hernandez, a strong turf pilot, is not to be dismissed.

Goodies (2) at 4-1 trained by Philip D'Amato with Hector Isaac Berrios is a horse from one of the elite California turf stables. D'Amato wins maiden turf races at a high rate and any horse from this barn at 4-1 in a maiden field deserves attention.

Longshots

Copper Luna (1) at 15-1 trained by Adam Kitchingman with Armando Aguilar up is too far outside the morning line to invest heavily, though Kitchingman occasionally drops a live maiden at a price. Awesome Olga (4) at 30-1 trained by Javier Jose Sierra with Victor Espinoza up is interesting only for the presence of Espinoza, a Hall of Fame jockey who does not waste trips. Even so, 30-1 against this opposition requires a past performance worth building a case around.

Selections

Win: Confidentiality (5) Place: Goodies (2) Show: Seeking Attention (3)

RACE 4 — Post 5:33 PT — 1,760f | Dirt | Claiming $10,000 n3l | Purse $20,000

A mile and an eighth on the dirt for non-winners of three races lifetime at the $10,000 claiming level. This is the bottom of the barrel in terms of class and purse on today's card, and the connections reflect that. The morning line is topped by Lil's Coffee (2) at 1-1, a strong signal from the public.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

With a six-horse field going a mile and an eighth, pace dynamics are crucial. Lil's Coffee (2), Tom's Star (1), and Perfect Life (5) all figure to be forwardly-placed. A pace battle in the early stages of a ten-furlong affair at this level could set up a closer, but the talent pool here is thin enough that the best horse often wins regardless of pace scenario.

Key Contenders

Lil's Coffee (2) at 1-1 trained by Isidro Tamayo with E. Jaramillo up is the dominant morning line choice. When a horse is nearly odds-on in a six-horse field at this class level with an in-form jockey aboard, the handicapping message is clear. Tamayo's horses at the $10,000 level are typically well-placed and ready to run. Jaramillo riding at 1-1 is a meaningful signal given his overall form this meeting.

Tom's Star (1) at 3-1 trained by Martin Valenzuela Jr. with Tiago Pereira up is the primary alternative. Post 1 in a route race on the dirt is advantageous as discussed, and Pereira has shown consistent competency at this level.

Secondary Choices

Perfect Life (5) at 4-1 trained by Lorenzo Campuzano with Armando Aguilar up is the best-priced alternative. Aguilar is a capable hand who gets the most out of horses at this claiming level. If Lil's Coffee (2) is bet down considerably off the morning line, Perfect Life (5) may offer genuine value in exacta combinations.

Daddygaveittome (3) at 6-1 trained by Edwin G. Alvarez with Welfin R. Orantes up and Misty Dancer (4) at 6-1 trained by Bill McLean with Ali Husain up are both at the same morning line price and both are secondary threats. Neither barn is among the meet leaders, and at this level the edge typically goes to the horse with the more accomplished jockey.

Longshots

Big Soiree (6) at 20-1 trained by Jorge Bautista with Cristobal Herrera up is a throwout. The connections are the least accomplished in this field and the price suggests the horse is likely in over its head even at the bottom of the barrel.

Selections

Win: Lil's Coffee (2) Place: Tom's Star (1) Show: Perfect Life (5)

RACE 5 — Post 6:06 PT — 1,320f | Turf | Maiden Claiming $50,000 | Purse $35,000

The day's designated Best Bet race from handicappers features an eight-horse field of fillies and mares going six furlongs on the turf for a $50,000 maiden claiming tag. Two co-favorites headline: Baby Needs Shoes (1) at 2-1 and Midnight Cowgirl (4) at 2-1, with the latter serving as the consensus Best Bet selection.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

Baby Needs Shoes (1) from the rail under the Peter Miller barn figures to show speed. Humidity (3) from the Patrick Gallagher barn at 3-1 may also look to press the pace. Midnight Cowgirl (4) from the Ryan Hanson barn is likely to settle off the early pace and make her bid on the turn. Latin Air (5) from the Jeff Mullins barn at 6-1 is another horse that typically needs pace to run at. The setup appears favorable for a close-pressing or stalking style.

Key Contenders

Midnight Cowgirl (4) at 2-1 trained by Ryan Hanson with E. Maldonado up is the consensus Best Bet and the horse handicappers are most enthusiastic about. Hanson has been a productive trainer this meet and Midnight Cowgirl (4) has the profile of a horse whose prior turf tries have been educational and who is ready to graduate today. Maldonado is riding with confidence this meeting and is the right partner for this filly in a competitive maiden field.

Baby Needs Shoes (1) at 2-1 trained by Peter Miller with Antonio Fresu up is the co-favorite and commands equal morning line respect. Miller is one of the leading trainers in California and his horses are typically fit and ready to run. From the rail in a turf sprint, Baby Needs Shoes (1) will attempt to control the pace. If she gets away cleanly and sets comfortable fractions, she is fully capable of winning at 2-1.

Secondary Choices

Humidity (3) at 3-1 trained by Patrick Gallagher with Hector Isaac Berrios up is the morning line second choice and a legitimate contender at a price that offers slight value over the co-favorites. Gallagher conditions horses effectively and Humidity (3) at 3-1 in an eight-horse turf field has a path to the winner's circle if the pace develops favorably.

Latin Air (5) at 6-1 trained by Jeff Mullins with Ricardo Gonzalez up is an interesting secondary play. Mullins is a very accomplished trainer who wins at a high rate on the turf and has a history of placing horses in spots where they are ready to run. At 6-1, Latin Air (5) offers the best value on the board if she is within striking distance at the top of the stretch.

Longshots

Anti Slapp (2) at 20-1 trained by Jeff Bonde with Armando Aguilar up is worth noting only because Bonde occasionally sends out sharp maiden claimers at a price. At 20-1 in an eight-horse field with two co-favorites, the value play is difficult to construct. Up For The Hunt (6) at 12-1 trained by Marcia Stortz with Alfredo L. Bautista up is a fringe player. Magic Carpet Ride (7) at 20-1 trained by Steve Knapp with Tyler Baze up gains some interest from the Baze jockey angle — Baze is not a rider who takes 20-1 mounts without some reason for optimism, and Knapp occasionally drops a live one at a big price. Tina's Princess (8) at 30-1 trained by Edwin G. Alvarez with Kyle Frey up is a pass.

Selections

Win: Midnight Cowgirl (4) Place: Baby Needs Shoes (1) Show: Latin Air (5)

RACE 6 — Post 6:37 PT — 1,320f | Dirt | Maiden Special Weight | Purse $65,000

A six-furlong dirt maiden for three-year-olds and up at the $65,000 level. The race draws six horses with two co-favorites at 2-1: Christa Mcauliffe (5) from the Miyadi barn and Very Smart (6) from the Eurton barn.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

Never In Doubt (1) trained by Andy Mathis at 4-1 may be the natural pace-setter from the inside post. If Florence Joyner (2) also shows early foot — D'Amato-barn runners often break smartly — the pace could be contested, setting up the two favorites who figure to be more stalking types. In a short six-horse field, pace scenarios can shift dramatically off the break. A clean start for either of the 2-1 horses likely results in a pace stalking effort.

Key Contenders

Very Smart (6) at 2-1 trained by Peter Eurton with Antonio Fresu up is the horse that draws the most interest based on the barn's strong form on dirt maidens at this level. Eurton, as noted in Race 3, is one of the best in California at preparing horses for their early starts, and Very Smart (6) from the outside post in a six-horse field will have a clear view of the race throughout. Fresu has developed a strong working relationship with the Eurton operation.

Christa Mcauliffe (5) at 2-1 trained by Steven Miyadi with E. Jaramillo up is the other co-favorite. Miyadi stables Florence Joyner (2) as well, an unusual dynamic where the same trainer has horses at 2-1 and 5-1 in the same race. The Jaramillo booking on Christa Mcauliffe (5) versus E. Maldonado on Florence Joyner (2) is a meaningful signal — Miyadi's primary confidence appears to rest with Christa Mcauliffe (5). Both are worth including in exacta combinations.

Secondary Choices

Zadra (4) at 4-1 trained by D. Wayne Baker with Epifanio Garcia up is intriguing. Baker is a veteran conditioner who knows how to bring a maiden to the races ready, and Zadra (4) at 4-1 in a six-horse field offers value over the chalk. The post position is workable.

Never In Doubt (1) at 4-1 trained by Andy Mathis with Kyle Frey up will control the pace from the rail. If this horse can set soft fractions and steal the race on the front end, Mathis will have pulled off a good training move. The price is fair.

Longshots

Florence Joyner (2) at 5-1 trained by Steven Miyadi with E. Maldonado up is the second Miyadi entry and must be included in all exotics given the same-stable connection. Joyful Mischief (3) at 10-1 trained by Melanie W. McDonald with Tyler Baze up is a longer shot worth using in larger exotic structures. Baze taking a 10-1 mount in a maiden is a signal worth filing away.

Selections

Win: Very Smart (6) Place: Christa Mcauliffe (5) Show: Zadra (4)

RACE 7 — Post 7:07 PT — 1,980f | Turf | Optional Claiming $20,000 n1x | Purse $67,000

A mile and a quarter on the turf for horses that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is a nine-horse field with a competitive morning line headed by Jimmy Blue Jeans (1) at 2-1 and Sabertooth (8) at 2-1. The distance and surface combination at Santa Anita makes post position extremely relevant.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

In a nine-horse field going ten furlongs on the turf, pace is everything. Jimmy Blue Jeans (1) from the rail under trainer George Papaprodromou is ideally positioned to save ground throughout the race. Stylishlyacclaimed (3) at 5-1 may also want to be forwardly-placed. Sabertooth (8) from Tim Yakteen at 2-1 with Antonio Fresu up will likely need to overcome a wide post, which at this distance adds significant ground loss. Unless Fresu angles in sharply early, Sabertooth (8) will be conceding real estate to Jimmy Blue Jeans (1) throughout. The pace should be moderate at this distance and surface, setting up the horses with the best late kick.

Key Contenders

Jimmy Blue Jeans (1) at 2-1 trained by George Papaprodromou with Kyle Frey up is the horse the handicapping community favors most, and for good reason. The rail post at a mile and a quarter on the turf at Santa Anita is a significant advantage when the horse is fit and capable. Papaprodromou is a strong trainer on the turf at this level. Frey has been solid throughout this meeting and knows exactly how to use the post.

Sabertooth (8) at 2-1 trained by Tim Yakteen with Antonio Fresu up is the other co-favorite, and Yakteen is among the very best trainers in California. His ability to bring horses to their peak in optional claiming company on the turf is well-documented. The post is a concern but the class advantage that Yakteen horses typically carry may offset the ground lost.

Secondary Choices

Stylishlyacclaimed (3) at 5-1 trained by Carla Gaines with E. Jaramillo up is an interesting secondary play. Gaines is a capable conditioner who wins at a solid rate and Stylishlyacclaimed (3) at a mild overlay has a realistic chance in this spot. Jaramillo's schedule today is heavy, which is a sign of his overall form.

Druidic (2) at 8-1 trained by Dan Azcarate with Tiago Pereira up is a horse with a turf route profile that fits this spot. Pereira has been one of the more consistent jockeys at Santa Anita this spring and 8-1 on a horse with route turf experience is worth examining in exotic wagering.

Longshots

Creative Om (7) at 10-1 trained by Aggie Ordonez with Kent J. Desormeaux up is the most compelling longshot angle in the race. Desormeaux is a Hall of Fame jockey who accepts very few mounts at this stage of his career and when he rides, he is selective. A 10-1 mount for KJ Desormeaux in a turf route at Santa Anita demands attention regardless of the trainer's win rate. Zagreus (4) at 12-1 trained by Leonard Powell with E. Maldonado up is too far out of the conversation to invest heavily. Dynodave (6) at 12-1 trained by Charles S. Treece with Hector Isaac Berrios up and Highplainsdrifter (9) at 15-1 trained by Mike Puype with Welfin R. Orantes up are both pass candidates. Speed Of Elon (5) at 30-1 trained by Daniel Dunham with Tyler Baze up is on the outer fringe — Baze taking a 30-1 mount is less compelling than his 20-1 pick in Race 5 given the much larger field.

Selections

Win: Jimmy Blue Jeans (1) Place: Sabertooth (8) Show: Creative Om (7)

RACE 8 — Post 7:37 PT — 1,760f | Dirt | Optional Claiming $50,000 n1x | Purse $67,000

A mile and an eighth on the dirt for optional claimers at the $50,000 level, a quality race that draws a six-horse field headed by Magnify (6) at 1-1 from the Tim Yakteen barn.

Race 8

Pace Analysis

With six horses going nine furlongs on the dirt, pace will shape the outcome significantly. Voldemort (1) from the Bob Baffert barn is likely to press early. Coach Cronin (2) at 2-1 trained by R.B. Hess Jr. with Mike E. Smith up may also position forwardly. If Coach Cronin (2) and Voldemort (1) duel in the early stages, Magnify (6) as a closer could pick up the pieces in the final furlong. The question is whether Magnify (6) can close from the outside against horses with more pace in the race.

Key Contenders

Magnify (6) at 1-1 trained by Tim Yakteen with Antonio Fresu up is the overwhelming chalk, and Yakteen's horses at the $50,000 optional claiming level on the main track are among the most reliable in California. At odds-on in a six-horse field, this is a horse the public expects to win. Fresu has ridden well all meeting and his relationship with the Yakteen barn is strong. The outside post is a slight concern over nine furlongs on dirt, but the class and fitness edge should be decisive.

Coach Cronin (2) at 2-1 trained by R.B. Hess Jr. with Mike E. Smith up is the main alternative. Smith is a Hall of Fame jockey who is selective about his mounts, and when he accepts a 2-1 shot in optional claiming company, he believes the horse can run. Hess is a veteran who conditions horses well at this level. If Magnify (6) has any issues in the race, Coach Cronin (2) is the one most likely to capitalize.

Secondary Choices

Berlin Wall (3) at 4-1 trained by Steve Knapp with Tiago Pereira up is the best-priced option in the race. Knapp at 4-1 in a six-horse optional claimer is an overlay that deserves respect in exacta constructions. Cowboy Mike (4) at 8-1 trained by Tim Yakteen with E. Jaramillo up is interesting as the stablemate to Magnify (6). Yakteen running two in the same race with Jaramillo on the secondary entry could mean the barn is separating their horses by confidence level, but even the secondary Yakteen horse at 8-1 in a six-horse field is not without merit.

Longshots

Voldemort (1) at 6-1 trained by Bob Baffert with Juan J. Hernandez up is worth noting simply because of the barn. Baffert horses that have been recently mentioned as working well in the morning are always live regardless of morning line position. Runaway Charlie (5) at 30-1 trained by Vladimir Cerin with Ali Husain up is a throwout.

Selections

Win: Magnify (6) Place: Coach Cronin (2) Show: Berlin Wall (3)

RACE 9 — Post 8:07 PT — 1,430f | Turf | Grade 3 Senorita Stakes | Purse $100,000

The centerpiece of the card, the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes sends ten three-year-old fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. This race carries direct implications for the California graded stakes season for sophomore fillies, and several horses in this field have credentials that project toward bigger opportunities this summer. The morning line is led by two co-favorites at 2-1: Mo' Em Down (2) trained by Peter Miller and Light Won Up (5) trained by Doug O'Neill.

Race 9

Pace Analysis

The ten-horse field creates legitimate pace questions. SURFIN' U.S.A. (3) at 30-1 from the Leonard Powell barn could be a pace-setter who gets ground early but fades. Mo' Em Down (2) and Light Won Up (5) both project as tactical horses capable of pressing or tracking the pace. Bella Lyra (1) from the Mark Glatt barn figures to be a pace-presser from the rail. The inner posts have an advantage at this distance on the Santa Anita turf, and Bella Lyra (1) and Mo' Em Down (2) are ideally positioned. Marjoram (6), Will Happen (7), and Still Unwritten (9) are likely to be mid-pack or off the pace types who will need the pace to set up.

Key Contenders

Mo' Em Down (2) at 2-1 trained by Peter Miller with Hector Isaac Berrios up is the horse many handicappers have circled as the top selection. Miller is one of the leading trainers in California and has a strong record in graded stakes on the turf. From post 2, this filly will have every opportunity to track the pace and make a winning move in the stretch. Berrios has been impressive this meeting.

Light Won Up (5) at 2-1 trained by Doug O'Neill with Antonio Fresu up is the other co-favorite and carries the weight of a barn that has won multiple graded stakes on the Santa Anita turf over the years. O'Neill conditions fillies extremely well and Light Won Up (5) from post 5 is perfectly positioned to settle in mid-pack and make a strong closing bid. Fresu is a reliable partner.

Secondary Choices

Bella Lyra (1) at 4-1 trained by Mark Glatt with Ricardo Gonzalez up is the most interesting value play in the race. Glatt has been quietly excellent at this meet, and his record in graded stakes on the turf is underrated. From the rail in a ten-horse turf route, Bella Lyra (1) will save considerable ground and be right in the mix throughout. If the pace is honest, Glatt's filly is set up perfectly to pounce in the stretch. At 4-1 against two 2-1 co-favorites, this is a legitimate each-way play.

Marjoram (6) at 10-1 trained by Michael W. McCarthy with Juan J. Hernandez up is the most compelling longshot angle in the race. McCarthy is one of the elite trainers for graded turf stakes in California and Hernandez is arguably the best turf jockey in the colony. When McCarthy ships a filly into a Grade 3 with Hernandez aboard at 10-1, it demands serious attention. This is the upset special of the card.

Will Happen (7) at 12-1 trained by Richard Baltas with Mike E. Smith up follows a similar pattern to Marjoram (6). Baltas is a top trainer for turf routes and Smith does not take 12-1 mounts without reason. This combination in a Grade 3 is a significant value play.

Longshots

Still Unwritten (9) at 12-1 trained by Ryan Hanson with E. Maldonado up is interesting given Hanson's positive form — his barn is running well today as evidenced by Midnight Cowgirl (4) in Race 5 being the Best Bet. Revera (4) at 20-1 trained by John Sadler with E. Jaramillo up is a horse from one of the most successful turf barns in California, and while the price is large, Sadler horses at 20-1 in Grade 3 company deserve a second look at the past performances. Dreaming Of Alys (8) at 20-1 trained by Philip D'Amato with Tiago Pereira up is another from an elite California turf barn. Yours Sincerely (10) at 20-1 trained by Philip D'Amato with Kyle Frey up is the second D'Amato entry, and like the Miyadi double in Race 6 and the Eurton double in Race 3, the trainer running two suggests both are fit and pointed. SURFIN' U.S.A. (3) at 30-1 trained by Leonard Powell with Armando Ayuso up is a difficult case to construct at this price in graded company.

Selections

Win: Mo' Em Down (2) Place: Bella Lyra (1) Show: Marjoram (6)

Jockey Notes and Insights

E. Jaramillo is the busiest rider on today's card, with mounts in Race 1 on Gazon (4), Race 2 on Precision (4), Race 4 on Lil's Coffee (2), Race 6 on Christa Mcauliffe (5), Race 7 on Stylishlyacclaimed (3), Race 8 on Cowboy Mike (4), and Race 9 on Revera (4). A jockey with this volume of mounts from serious barns — Sadler, Palma, Tamayo, Miyadi, Gaines, Yakteen, and Sadler again — is in top form and should be followed throughout the card. His mounts in Race 1 and Race 2 are the most likely winners of his book today.

Antonio Fresu is another rider with a heavy book, appearing in Race 1 on Tribal (6), Race 3 on Seeking Attention (3), Race 5 on Baby Needs Shoes (1), Race 6 on Very Smart (6), Race 7 on Sabertooth (8), Race 8 on Magnify (6), and Race 9 on Light Won Up (5). Fresu's association with the Eurton and Yakteen barns is particularly productive and his mounts for those stables today — Seeking Attention (3), Very Smart (6), Sabertooth (8), and Magnify (6) — all deserve extra attention.

Juan J. Hernandez rides Valiant Son (7) in Race 1, Jasmine (7) in Race 3, Voldemort (1) in Race 8, and Marjoram (6) in Race 9. The Marjoram (6) booking in the Senorita is the most significant of his afternoon. Hernandez is the best pure turf jockey in this colony and he does not take graded stakes mounts without clear ability. His presence on Marjoram (6) at 10-1 makes that horse a top exotic play.

Mike E. Smith rides Coach Cronin (2) in Race 8 and Will Happen (7) in Race 9. Smith's selectivity is legendary — at this stage of his Hall of Fame career he is extremely particular about his commitments. Two mounts on the same card, both in significant optional claiming and graded stakes company, suggests both horses are live.

Tyler Baze appears on El Bromista (1) in Race 1, Magic Carpet Ride (7) in Race 5, Joyful Mischief (3) in Race 6, and Speed Of Elon (5) in Race 7. Baze is a veteran who is worth tracking when he takes 10-1 or longer shots, as he tends to be selective with his effort on board. Joyful Mischief (3) at 10-1 in Race 6 is the most interesting of his afternoon.

Kent J. Desormeaux takes only Creative Om (7) in Race 7 today. As noted in the race analysis, Desormeaux is highly selective and his 10-1 turf route mount should be used in all exotic combinations.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Peter Eurton stands out across the card today with a pair of fillies in Race 3 and a solo runner in Race 6. Eurton's turf program has been producing winners at a strong rate this spring, and Seeking Attention (3) and Jasmine (7) in the $65,000 maiden give him two chances at a substantial purse. In Race 6, Very Smart (6) is the Eurton dirt representative, and as noted, Fresu's presence on the outside post filly makes her the race top selection.

Tim Yakteen has mounts in both Race 7 and Race 8, with two horses in Race 8. Magnify (6) at 1-1 and Cowboy Mike (4) at 8-1 in Race 8, and Sabertooth (8) at 2-1 in Race 7. Yakteen is one of the premier trainers in California and his barn is consistently producing this spring. The 1-1 on Magnify (6) is a significant endorsement of the horse's current condition.

Blaine Wright doubles up in Race 1 with El Bromista (1) and Valiant Son (7), and based on the jockey assignments — Tyler Baze on El Bromista (1) at 10-1 versus Juan J. Hernandez on Valiant Son (7) at 3-1 — the barn's confidence appears weighted toward Valiant Son (7). The horse's strong return from a 500-plus day layoff combined with Hernandez's booking makes Valiant Son (7) an excellent win alternative to Gazon (4).

Philip D'Amato enters Goodies (2) in Race 3 and then doubles up in Race 9 with Dreaming Of Alys (8) and Yours Sincerely (10) in the Senorita Stakes. D'Amato is one of the finest turf trainers in California and his horses are worth including in all exotics regardless of morning line odds. The Senorita Stakes double is particularly notable — when D'Amato invests two starters in a Grade 3, both horses are fit.

Ryan Hanson's barn is one to watch today with Midnight Cowgirl (4) as the consensus Best Bet in Race 5 and Still Unwritten (9) in the Senorita in Race 9. Hanson appears to be in a sharp cycle right now.

John Sadler runs Gazon (4) in Race 1 and Revera (4) in Race 9. The Sadler barn's turf program remains excellent and while Revera (4) is a long shot in the Grade 3, the trainer's presence in the Senorita is never to be ignored entirely.

Bob Baffert enters Voldemort (1) in Race 8. As noted in the Friday TDN analysis, Baffert sent out a pair of colts in Race 1 of Friday's card who had trained well in the morning, described as typical for this outfit. The same morning-training quality is assumed for Voldemort (1) on Saturday. At 6-1 in a six-horse field with Hernandez aboard, the Baffert horse deserves more attention than his odds suggest.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best value on the card today is Marjoram (6) at 10-1 in Race 9. Michael McCarthy and Juan J. Hernandez are a combination that wins graded stakes races, and when that combination appears at double-digit morning line odds in a Grade 3, the value is clear. Include Marjoram (6) on top, underneath, and as a key in all Race 9 exotics.

The Best Bet of the card is Midnight Cowgirl (4) in Race 5, as identified by consensus handicappers. The Ryan Hanson barn is in form and this filly is set up perfectly for a maiden win against this company today.

For win wagering, the most confident plays in order are: Midnight Cowgirl (4) in Race 5, Magnify (6) in Race 8, Gazon (4) in Race 1, and Precision (4) in Race 2. These four represent horses with significant public support from experienced connections and jockeys who suggest genuine readiness.

For exacta wagering, the most productive structures are:

Race 9 Senorita: Box MO’ EM DOWN (2), BELLA LYRA (1), and MARJORAM (6) in a three-horse exacta box. Add WILL HAPPEN (7) as a saver underneath.

For the Pick 5, the most logical sequence covering Races 5 through 9 is:

Race 5: MIDNIGHT COWGIRL (4), BABY NEEDS SHOES (1)

Race 6: VERY SMART (6), CHRISTA MCAULIFFE (5)

Race 7: JIMMY BLUE JEANS (1), SABERTOOTH (8), CREATIVE OM (7)

Race 8: MAGNIFY (6), COACH CRONIN (2)

Race 9: MO’ EM DOWN (2), BELLA LYRA (1), MARJORAM (6), WILL HAPPEN (7)

This structure covers two horses in each of the more competitive races while singling Magnify (6) in Race 8 as the legs' anchor, where the 1-1 favorite is the most reliable outcome on the card. The total number of combinations is manageable and the potential payoff is significant given the four-horse spread in the Senorita finale.

For trifecta wagering in Race 9, the recommended structure is Mo' Em Down (2) and Bella Lyra (1) on top, with Marjoram (6), Will Happen (7), Still Unwritten (9), and Revera (4) filling the bottom two slots. This captures the most likely chalk-led trifectas while incorporating the best longshot alternatives from elite connections.

The single best value bet of the afternoon is Marjoram (6) to win in Race 9 at 10-1, representing the strongest overlay on the card given the McCarthy-Hernandez combination in graded stakes company.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback