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Santa Anita Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 26, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%15%29%44%59%3%7%13%18%26%38%What we said — 3.4%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.0%What we said — 25.7%What we said — 38.3%What we saidWhat happened — 2.8%What happened — 7.3%What happened — 13.7%What happened — 21.7%What happened — 30.8%What happened — 47.7%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.4%2.8%
7%7.4%7.3%
13%12.5%13.7%
18%18.0%21.7%
26%25.7%30.8%
38%38.3%47.7%

Race Day Overview

Santa Anita Park's 2026 Autumn Meet opens its first full Saturday with a deep, stakes-laden card headlined by the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes (Race 8), a Breeders' Cup Classic “Win and You're In” qualifier at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. The supporting features include the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile (Race 3) on turf, a Breeders' Cup Mile qualifier, the Grade 2 Eddie D (Race 5) down the hillside turf, the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship (Race 7) at 1 1/4 miles on turf, and the Grade 3 John C. Harris Stakes (Race 9) for three-year-old fillies about 6 1/2 furlongs downhill.

Nevada Beach (9) returns to defend his Goodwood title as the lone Grade 1 winner in the Race 8 field and a short-priced favorite, facing serious challenges from Original Sin (4) and the Saffie Joseph Jr. pair Forged Steel (7) and Caldera (8). In the City of Hope Mile, King Of Gosford (6) bids for his third consecutive stakes win over the course against a field that includes the Chilean Group 1 winner Teao (1) and the Woodbine-based Irish Aces (5). The downhill turf features and pick-six sequence ensure that pace, post position, and track profile will be critical for serious bettors across the card.

Weather and Track Conditions

Late September in Arcadia typically brings dry, warm afternoons with minimal precipitation risk, and there are no public indications of adverse weather impacting today's program. The expectation is for a fast main track and firm turf, consistent with historical opening-weekend conditions at Santa Anita's autumn meet.

The hillside turf course used in the Eddie D (Race 5) and John C. Harris Stakes (Race 9) traditionally plays fair but demands horses comfortable with the unique right-hand kink and crossing of the dirt strip, while the one-mile and 1 1/4-mile turf races are run over the main oval and tend to favor horses who can sustain a long, grinding run around the sweeping turns. Bettors should confirm official track conditions close to post time, but all indications point to standard Southern California fall footing.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Santa Anita's main track, when fast, has historically favored tactical speed and horses able to secure inside to mid-track paths, especially in two-turn routes like the Goodwood Stakes (Race 8). Forwardly placed runners who can sit just off the pace without being hard used have typically held a significant advantage over deep closers, particularly in fields with multiple pace elements.

The hillside turf course used for the Eddie D (Race 5) and John C. Harris Stakes (Race 9) often produces strong finishing runs from horses who settle comfortably and switch leads smoothly after crossing the dirt. Inside posts are not an automatic advantage down the hill; trip and turf aptitude matter more than raw post draw, and horses drawn in the middle of the gate often enjoy clean sightlines and less chance of being pinned to the rail.

On the one-mile turf configuration (City of Hope Mile, Race 3), posts inside 1-6 have historically enjoyed slightly better outcomes due to shorter runs to the first turn and easier ground-saving trips, but quality pace and tactical positioning outweigh raw post statistics. The 1 1/4-mile turf of the John Henry Turf Championship (Race 7) starts on the backstretch and tends to be more forgiving to wider draws; stamina and the ability to quicken twice are more important than gate position.

With the Autumn Meet just underway, serious bettors should pay close attention to how the track plays in the early races. Any emergent bias toward deeper closers or a particular part of the track can and should be incorporated into live wagering plans, especially in the pick-six and late exotics.

RACE 1 — Post 4:00/3:00/2:00/(1:00) — 1760f | T | M | Md 50000 | BUN | Purse $35,000

Pace Analysis

Race 1 is a 1 1/16-mile maiden claimer on turf and projects a moderately honest but not blistering pace. Going Nowhere (5) has enough tactical speed to attend or press the early fractions, while Heroic Dose (8) has consistently sat just off the leaders in his recent turf routes. Doing Time (7) and Dr. Filkins (2) are likely to track in the second flight, waiting for the far-turn move. The deep closers such as Monsieur Big (1) and Daddys Star (9) will depend on an above-average early tempo or a developing pace duel between Going Nowhere (5) and one of the longshot pace types like Hammerbarn (4).

Overall, the race appears configured for a stalker or mid-pack mover to get first run at the leaders turning for home, with the likely winning profile being a horse who can sit 3-5 lengths off the pace through the backstretch and finish strongly.

Key Contenders

Heroic Dose (8) comes off a pair of strong runner-up finishes in similar turf routes at this level, and multiple handicappers have identified him as the horse most likely to break through with a maiden score in this spot. His recent pattern suggests he is holding form, and the switch to Julien Leparoux, who excels in saving ground and timing late runs on turf, is a positive. From the outside draw, Heroic Dose (8) should be able to tuck in behind the pace and make a sustained move in the lane.

Going Nowhere (5) appears to be the main pace presence among the logical contenders. Trained by Ryan Hanson with Kazushi Kimura aboard, Going Nowhere (5) has shown enough speed to be forwardly placed without being overused, and his pedigree suggests that 1 1/16 miles on turf is within range. If the turf is playing kindly to speed early in the day, Going Nowhere (5) could be dangerous stealing soft fractions.

Doing Time (7) brings a consistent run-style and fits well at this level. With Umberto Rispoli, a rider who regularly produces top-tier turf trips, Doing Time (7) is well suited to sit mid-pack, save ground, and angle out at the quarter pole. He looks like the primary alternative to Heroic Dose (8) if that rival encounters traffic or fails to kick on late.

Secondary Choices

Dr. Filkins (2) has enough tactical speed to sit close and could improve in his second or third start over the turf. With Juan Hernandez up, Dr. Filkins (2) projects a ground-saving trip from the two hole; if the early fractions are moderate and Hernandez keeps him covered up for as long as possible, he is capable of sticking around for a share.

Monsieur Big (1) and Daddys Star (9) are both candidates to outrun their morning lines and pick up pieces late. Monsieur Big (1) draws inside with Joel Rosario, who often excels in patient, rail-hugging rides on turf. If the pace proves hotter than expected, Monsieur Big (1) could be the type to be passing tired horses in the final furlong. Daddys Star (9), under Tiago Pereira, has shown occasional finishing interest and may move forward on the stretch out and switch back to turf.

Quality Gold (6) and Hammerbarn (4) are not without upside, particularly if they are allowed to race more prominently early, but both appear to need significant improvement on paper to threaten the top choices.

Longshots

Rowdybarfight (3) and Miguelito (10) both sit at high morning-line prices and will be overlooked in most pools. Rowdybarfight (3), drawing inside mid-pack, could be forwardly placed if connections choose to use his speed, and any improvement on turf would make him at least a fringe superfecta player. Miguelito (10) must negotiate the widest post and has yet to show much, but any step forward at a big price could spice up the bottom of vertical exotics.

Selections

Win: Heroic Dose (8)

Place: Going Nowhere (5)

Show: Doing Time (7)

Betting-wise, Race 1 offers a straightforward win and exacta opportunity focusing on Heroic Dose (8). A win bet on Heroic Dose (8) can be paired with exactas 8 over 2, 5, 7, 1 and small savers back 5, 7 over 8. Trifecta players might key 8 over 5, 7, 2 over the same plus 1 and 9, taking advantage of potential price boosts from Monsieur Big (1) or Daddys Star (9).

RACE 2 — Post 4:33/3:33/2:33/(1:33) — 1430f | D | C | Clm 16000 | BUN | Purse $26,000

Pace Analysis

Race 2 is a 7-furlong $16,000 claimer on dirt that should feature a sharp early tempo. B Grayson (2), installed as a short-priced favorite, has shown enough speed to attend or press any frontrunner. Piper's Causeway (4) has tactical speed from the outside and could be sent to control the pace. Naftis (1) and Gypsy Tears (5) may show speed from the inside, creating a crowded early scenario to the first bend.

Given the combination of multiple speed-inclined runners, a contested pace is likely. That dynamic sets up best for the classiest speed horse who can withstand early pressure and still finish, making B Grayson (2) and Piper's Causeway (4) the primary pace-resilient types.

Key Contenders

B Grayson (2) is clearly the horse to beat. His recent figures tower over this field, and several handicappers consider him a strong favorite capable of either stalking just off the pace or taking command early and proving too tough late. With Kyle Frey aboard, B Grayson (2) should be able to break cleanly, secure a comfortable position, and let his class and stamina carry him down the lane.

Piper's Causeway (4), ridden by Armando Aguilar, is the main threat. His outside draw provides options; he can press B Grayson (2) or sit just off the top pair and pounce turning for home. The combination of trainer Jesus Uranga's aggressive placement and Piper's Causeway (4)'s recent form makes him a logical second choice who can capitalize if the favorite encounters trouble.

Naftis (1), with Kazushi Kimura, has back races that fit well in this spot and enjoys the rail draw. If Naftis (1) breaks sharply and secures the pocket behind the top pace players, he can sit an ideal trip and emerge late for at least a minor award, with a small chance to upset if the top pair soften each other up.

Secondary Choices

Gypsy Tears (5), ridden by Edgar Payeras, offers value as a secondary contender. He may not possess the raw pace of B Grayson (2) or Piper's Causeway (4), but he can sit just off the leaders and grind home, which makes him highly usable in exactas and trifectas. With the right stalking trip off a heated pace, Gypsy Tears (5) could easily be part of the outcome.

Mici's Express (3) is more of a fringe player but deserves mention. With Armando Ayuso aboard, Mici's Express (3) could drop in mid-pack and hope to take advantage if several pace players falter late, making him a minor inclusion for deeper tickets.

Longshots

None of the runners in Race 2 are extreme longshots, but Mici's Express (3) is the most likely to be overlooked. His upside is limited on paper, yet in a race where pace meltdown is possible, even a modest closer can outrun odds and hit the bottom of trifectas or supers.

Selections

Win: B Grayson (2)

Place: Piper's Causeway (4)

Show: Naftis (1)

Race 2 shapes up as a single for many multi-race players. Strong win bets on B Grayson (2) are justified, with exactas using Piper's Causeway (4) and Naftis (1) underneath. A safer approach is to key B Grayson (2) on top in exactas and trifectas with 1, 4, 5, and a small reverse exacta using Piper's Causeway (4) in case he controls the pace.

RACE 3 — Post 5:06/4:06/3:06/(2:06) — 1760f | T | G2 | CtyOHpMi-G2 | BUN | Purse $200,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at one mile on turf features a compact, high-quality field of six. Several runners possess tactical speed, but there are no true need-the-lead types. El Potente (2) and Cabo Spirit (3) figure to be forwardly placed, with King Of Gosford (6) likely to track them from just behind. Teao (1), Irish Aces (5), and Detain (4) are more comfortable in mid-pack or slightly off the pace, depending on early tempo.

With a lack of pure speed, a moderate to even pace is expected, which should favor horses who can sit within three lengths of the lead and quicken sharply between the three-sixteenths pole and the wire. Trip will be decisive: the horse who secures a ground-saving position into the first turn and gets clear running in the lane is most likely to win.

Key Contenders

King Of Gosford (6) comes into this race aiming for his third consecutive stakes victory at Santa Anita, including prior success in the City of Hope Mile configuration. Multiple handicappers and analysts view King Of Gosford (6) as the tactical standout, with a blend of speed, stamina, and course affinity that makes him very dangerous. Under Umberto Rispoli, King Of Gosford (6) should secure an ideal tracking position, saving enough ground and pouncing late.

El Potente (2) has established himself as a high-quality turf miler in Southern California, and handicappers consistently rate him among the top choices. With Hector Berrios, El Potente (2) projects to sit on or near the lead, controlling fractions without undue pressure. If he can back down the pace and kick home, he may prove very difficult to run down.

Detain (4) has attracted strong support from handicappers, with multiple published picks putting him on top or in the exacta. With Juan Hernandez, Detain (4) benefits from a rider who times moves well and is adept at using tactical speed to secure a mid-pack but ground-saving position. If Detain (4) gets a clean trip and the pace turns slightly more contentious than expected, he may be the one finishing best.

Secondary Choices

Teao (1) is a Chilean Group 1 winner making his local stakes debut, bringing serious international class to the table. Trainers and handicappers regard Teao (1) as a major wild card; he has enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed from the rail and the stamina to sustain a long run. If he handles the Santa Anita turf and settles behind the pace, he is capable of a strong performance in his first American graded start.

Irish Aces (5) ships in off solid graded stakes efforts at Woodbine, where he repeatedly hit the board in competitive fields. His running style is that of a late-running miler who benefits from solid pace and firm ground. With Joel Rosario aboard, Irish Aces (5) will likely be reserved in mid-pack or further back, looking to unleash a well-timed run down the lane. He is a prime candidate to fill exactas and trifectas if the pace is even to slightly demanding.

Cabo Spirit (3) is a known commodity in California turf stakes, often present late but not always able to seal the deal. With Mike Smith riding, Cabo Spirit (3) can be tactically placed near the leaders, yet he may be slightly outfinished by the sharper milers in the final furlong.

Longshots

None of the six entrants are true longshots by class, but in the context of this field, Cabo Spirit (3) and Irish Aces (5) may drift to higher odds than their ability suggests. Either could surprise at a price if securing an ideal trip while the heavily bet contenders encounter traffic or a suboptimal pace scenario.

Selections

Win: King Of Gosford (6)

Place: El Potente (2)

Show: Detain (4)

Race 3 offers excellent opportunities for exacta and trifecta players. A logical approach is to key King Of Gosford (6) on top with El Potente (2) and Detain (4) underneath, and include Teao (1) and Irish Aces (5) on deeper tickets. The 6 over 2,4,1,5 exacta with small reverse 2,4 over 6 provides coverage if the pace scenario favors El Potente (2) or Detain (4).

RACE 4 — Post 5:38/4:38/3:38/(2:38) — 1430f | D | AO | OClm 50000n1x | BUN | Purse $67,000

Pace Analysis

Race 4 is a 7-furlong allowance/optional claimer that features several lightly raced, high-potential runners. Liam Smith (1) has significant early speed and is likely to be sent from the rail. San Saba (6), a Baffert-trained runner, has tactical speed and can apply pressure. Clouseau (4) and Captain Shreve (5) may sit just off the leaders, while For All Mankind (2) and Duke Silver (3) are more mid-pack types.

The combination of Liam Smith (1) stretching his speed and San Saba (6) applying pressure suggests a solid early tempo, but given the talent level, the leaders may still be resilient late. The race shape favors a horse with tactical speed and the ability to relax just off the front rather than a deep closer.

Key Contenders

Liam Smith (1) is a strong frontrunner with a high-class profile for this level. With Peter Miller sending him and E. Jaramillo aboard, Liam Smith (1) will almost certainly attempt to control the race from the rail. If he breaks cleanly and establishes the lead in comfortable fractions, he becomes very difficult to reel in. His recent form and connections make him the horse to beat.

San Saba (6), trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan Hernandez, is the main threat. Baffert's runners in this allowance band typically show sharp speed and stamina, and San Saba (6) is well-positioned to sit just off Liam Smith (1), keeping that rival honest and ready to take over if Liam Smith (1) weakens. Hernandez's ability to judge pace and keep his mount in the clear is a key asset.

Clouseau (4), with Umberto Rispoli up, offers a high-quality stalking profile. George Papaprodromou's charge has the type of tactical speed that allows him to sit in third or fourth, saving ground and waiting for the leaders to tire. If Liam Smith (1) and San Saba (6) engage in a prolonged duel, Clouseau (4) may inherit the lead and prove best late.

Secondary Choices

For All Mankind (2), trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joel Rosario, is a classic mid-pack grinder. He may lack the brilliant turn of foot of the top choices, but his steady style and strong finishing ability make him a solid candidate for the minors. If the pace is stronger than expected, For All Mankind (2) could be running on late for second or third.

Duke Silver (3), with Abel Lezcano, is a possible under-the-radar player. His post and style suggest he will track the leaders from a few lengths back. If he steps forward off his recent performances, Duke Silver (3) could surprise on the board.

Captain Shreve (5), another Papaprodromou runner under Drayden Van Dyke, is capable of forward placement but may be the slightly lesser of the barn's two contenders on current form. He remains usable on deeper tickets and could benefit from an advantageous stalking trip.

Longshots

None of the runners in Race 4 are hopeless, but Captain Shreve (5) and Duke Silver (3) will likely go off at the longest prices among the major connections. Either can be considered for superfecta tickets, particularly if one of the favorites underperforms.

Selections

Win: Liam Smith (1)

Place: San Saba (6)

Show: Clouseau (4)

The best betting angle in Race 4 is to lean on Liam Smith (1) as the likely pace and class of the field, but acknowledge San Saba (6) as a serious danger. Win bets on Liam Smith (1) combined with exactas 1 over 6,4,2 and small reverse exactas 6,4 over 1 are reasonable. Trifecta players can key 1 over 6,4,2 over 6,4,2,3,5, using For All Mankind (2) as a key value closer.

RACE 5 — Post 6:10/5:10/4:10/(3:10) — 1430f | T | G2 | EddieD-G2 | BUN | Purse $200,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 2 Eddie D is run about 6 1/2 furlongs down Santa Anita's hillside turf course, a unique configuration that often produces strongly run but tactically complex races. Sumter (1), Freedom's Not Free (3), Sorrento Sky (6), and Pure Madness (7) all have early foot, while Virat (9) and First Peace (8) can be tactically placed in mid-pack. Later Than Planned (2), Amorita (4), and Nesso's Lastharrrah (5) are more likely to stalk or close.

Given multiple speed elements, the pace should be lively. However, hillside dynamics often favor horses with the ability to relax just off the front and re-engage after crossing the dirt, making versatile stalkers particularly attractive.

Key Contenders

Sorrento Sky (6), trained by Phil D'Amato and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, looks like a key player. D'Amato's barn excels in turf sprints, and Sorrento Sky (6) has the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders while handling the hillside nuances. If Rispoli can secure a clear path and time his move around the dirt crossing, Sorrento Sky (6) is well positioned to win.

Pure Madness (7), under Armando Ayuso, brings strong speed and proven sprint ability. If Pure Madness (7) handles the hillside course as well as the standard turf sprint, she could be among the first to the crossing and still have enough left late. The draw is good for gathering momentum and staying out of tight rail traffic.

Freedom's Not Free (3) and First Peace (8), both trained by Mark Glatt, form a powerful stable duo. Freedom's Not Free (3), ridden by Juan Hernandez, can be prominently placed early and may relish the cutback in distance. First Peace (8), with Joel Rosario, is more of a stalker and could sit mid-pack, saving ground and aiming to unleash a late kick once straightened away. Both are legitimate win threats in a crowded pace picture.

Secondary Choices

Sumter (1), trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Mike Smith, offers strong pace and class but must negotiate the rail draw and hillside course. If Sumter (1) breaks cleanly and secures the lead without being hounded, he can be very tough, though the presence of multiple other speed types makes his job harder.

Later Than Planned (2) and Virat (9) are both appealing at potential prices. Later Than Planned (2), with Hector Berrios, could sit off the pace and make a sustained run down the hill. Virat (9), ridden by Pascacio Lopez for Daniel Blacker, enjoys the outside draw and can stay clear of traffic, launching a wide, momentum-building run that fits the hillside pattern.

Amorita (4) and Nesso's Lastharrrah (5) are longer-priced but capable of picking up pieces if the leading pack collapses late.

Longshots

Amorita (4), Nesso's Lastharrrah (5), and perhaps even Later Than Planned (2) might be overlooked in betting but are not without ability. Given how chaotic hillside races can become, any of these could hit the trifecta or superfecta at appealing prices, particularly if one secures a perfect mid-pack trip and avoids trouble at the crossing.

Selections

Win: Sorrento Sky (6)

Place: Pure Madness (7)

Show: First Peace (8)

In the Eddie D, the best wagering angle involves spreading in exotics while centering tickets around Sorrento Sky (6). Consider win bets on Sorrento Sky (6), plus exactas 6 over 3,7,8,1,2 and small reverses using 7 and 8 over 6. Trifecta tickets might key 6 over 7,8,3 over 7,8,3,1,2,9, giving room for a price like Virat (9) or Later Than Planned (2) to slip into the frame.

RACE 6 — Post 6:40/5:40/4:40/(3:40) — 1320f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AOF | Purse $65,000

Pace Analysis

Race 6 is a six-furlong statebred maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies on dirt, part of the pick-six sequence. Juvenile races at this level often feature sharp early speed and some greenness late. Sauced Up (1), Ember Royale (2), Not So Merry Mary (3), and Savvy Tiger (9) all show speed in breeding and early works, while Runaround Sue (5) and Pavular (4) may stalk. Her Strut (7), Sir Star (6), Stay My Girl (8), and others will likely be mid-pack or closing depending on ability and gate break.

Expect a brisk pace, with several runners vying for the lead. The winner will likely be a filly who can break alertly, establish a comfortable forward position, and still finish after learning on the job.

Key Contenders

Not So Merry Mary (3), trained by Tim Yakteen and ridden by Kazushi Kimura, stands out on paper as the likely favorite. Her connections and presumably strong works suggest she is well-prepared, and the three post offers tactical options. If Not So Merry Mary (3) breaks sharply, she can either control the pace or sit just off the leaders and pounce.

Sauced Up (1), trained by Felix Rondan with Alfredo Bautista aboard, benefits from an inside draw and may show speed from the gate. If Sauced Up (1) can secure the rail and maintain composure, she can be right there turning for home.

Savvy Tiger (9), trained by Phil D'Amato and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, deserves considerable respect. D'Amato's barn is strong with young turf and dirt runners, and the outside draw for Savvy Tiger (9) allows her to stay clear of traffic and gradually move into contention. If she shows the expected early foot, she can sit a perfect outside trip.

Secondary Choices

Ember Royale (2), trained by Jeff Bonde and ridden by Armando Aguilar, is another major player. Bonde's juveniles often break fast and show early ability, making Ember Royale (2) a likely pace factor. Runaround Sue (5), under E. Jaramillo for Andy Mathis, brings a steady profile and could benefit from sitting just behind the pace before finishing.

Pavular (4), with Armando Ayuso, and Her Strut (7), with Drayden Van Dyke, are both usable on deeper tickets as potential closing or stalking types who may improve with racing experience.

Longshots

Sir Star (6), Stay My Girl (8), and Her Strut (7) may go off at large prices. Any of these could outrun odds if they are more professional than the market expects or if the hot pace causes several leaders to tire late. For superfecta players, including these names underneath is a sensible value play.

Selections

Win: Not So Merry Mary (3)

Place: Savvy Tiger (9)

Show: Sauced Up (1)

Race 6 is a good spot to use Not So Merry Mary (3) as a key in the pick-six and other multi-race wagers, while still acknowledging the volatility inherent in juvenile races. Consider win bets on Not So Merry Mary (3), plus exactas 3 over 1,2,9,5 and small savers 9 over 3,1. In trifectas, key 3 over 9,1,2 over 9,1,2,5,4,7, recognizing the potential for longshots like Ember Royale (2) or Runaround Sue (5) to spike payouts.

RACE 7 — Post 7:10/6:10/5:10/(4:10) — 2200f | T | G2 | JHnryTfC-G2 | BUN | Purse $200,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship is run at 1 1/4 miles on turf, a stamina-testing route that generally features a controlled pace. Balladeer (4) is the most likely pure frontrunner and should be sent to secure the lead. Atomic Age (3) and Mondego (1) possess tactical speed and can sit just off Balladeer (4). Atitlan (7), Twirling Point (8), Nitti (5), Flashiest (6), and Sinsel (2) are more mid-pack or closing types.

A moderate, honest pace is expected, with Balladeer (4) trying to stretch the field. The race will likely be decided by which horse can secure a position in the first flight and still deliver a strong, sustained run over the final three furlongs.

Key Contenders

Atitlan (7), trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, is the morning-line favorite and a strong contender. His profile is that of a classic turf stayer, with the ability to sit mid-pack and quicken strongly when asked. Rispoli's turf instincts and patience should allow Atitlan (7) to avoid early battles and focus on delivering a decisive late run.

Mondego (1), trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Juan Hernandez, brings a consistent and classy turf profile. From the rail, Mondego (1) can secure an ideal ground-saving trip in the first flight, tracking Balladeer (4) and Atomic Age (3). If he gets out at the right time, he is capable of outstaying most rivals.

Atomic Age (3), trained by Phil D'Amato and ridden by Kazushi Kimura, is another key contender. He has enough tactical speed to sit close to Balladeer (4) without being overused, and D'Amato's record in longer turf routes adds confidence. Atomic Age (3) is particularly dangerous if the pace is moderate and he enjoys a soft, stalking trip.

Secondary Choices

Twirling Point (8), trained by Blaine Wright and ridden by Ricardo Gonzalez, may be overlooked but has the grinding style that can succeed at this distance. If Twirling Point (8) relaxes nicely and follows the first flight, he could be running on strongly late to catch tiring leaders.

Nitti (5), with Victor Espinoza, and Flashiest (6), under Armando Ayuso for Leonard Powell, are both mid-pack closers who will depend on the pace to be stronger than anticipated. If Balladeer (4) goes too fast early, Nitti (5) and Flashiest (6) could pick off multiple rivals in the stretch.

Sinsel (2), ridden by Hector Berrios for Richard Mandella, appears to be a lesser stablemate to Atitlan (7) on paper but still offers potential value as a horse who can grind late into the exotics.

Longshots

Balladeer (4) and Sinsel (2) may drift to longer prices despite their capable profiles. Balladeer (4) could get loose on the lead and take this field a long way, while Sinsel (2) could clunk up into the trifecta if the race turns into a stamina test.

Selections

Win: Atitlan (7)

Place: Mondego (1)

Show: Atomic Age (3)

Race 7 is a key leg in the pick-six and late pick-5 sequences. The best wagering approach is to lean on Atitlan (7) as the top choice while also including Mondego (1) and Atomic Age (3) in multi-race tickets. In race-only wagers, consider win bets on Atitlan (7) with exactas 7 over 1,3,8 and a saver exacta 1 over 7,3. Trifectas keyed 7 over 1,3,8 over 1,3,8,5,6 can leverage potential value from Twirling Point (8) and Nitti (5).

RACE 8 — Post 7:40/6:40/5:40/(4:40) — 1980f | D | G1 | Goodwood-G1 | BUN | Purse $300,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on dirt is a Breeders' Cup Classic “Win and You're In” event, awarding an automatic berth to the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland. Nevada Beach (9), Taif (1), Forged Steel (7), and Caldera (8) all possess significant early speed. Mr. A. P. (6), Original Sin (4), and Mcafee (3) are more tactical stalkers, while Vodka Vodka (2) and Midnight Mammoth (5) may be further back early.

Given the presence of multiple speed-inclined runners, the pace should be honest to strong, especially with Nevada Beach (9) seeking to assert control as the defending champion. The race likely sets up for a high-class horse who can either dominate on the front despite pressure or sit just off the speed and pounce at the right time.

Key Contenders

Nevada Beach (9), trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan Hernandez, is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field and the heavy favorite, with morning-line odds around 7/5 in published entries. He returns attempting to become the first two-time Goodwood winner since Game On Dude, and handicappers broadly acknowledge his class edge. Nevada Beach (9) has the tactical speed to secure a prominent position from the outside draw and the stamina to see out the 1 1/8-mile trip. If he breaks cleanly and gets into his rhythm, he remains the most likely winner.

Original Sin (4), trained by Brendan Walsh and ridden by Kazushi Kimura, is widely considered the main threat to Nevada Beach (9). He captured the Grade 3 Blame Stakes earlier in the year and arrives off a strong second in a Del Mar stakes, demonstrating his ability to travel and compete with high-class company. Analysts have noted that Original Sin (4) needs a more alert start than in his latest race to avoid spotting Nevada Beach (9) too much ground early. If he breaks better and settles in a stalking spot, he can launch a serious challenge in the lane.

Caldera (8) and Forged Steel (7), both trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., form a formidable barn duo. Caldera (8), ridden by Paco Lopez in some published entries and Pascacio Lopez here, is a tactical runner with the ability to sit just off the front and grind home, while Forged Steel (7), under Edwin Gonzalez, brings a strong pace profile and stamina. Many handicappers include Caldera (8) in the top three, considering him a primary upset candidate.

Secondary Choices

Taif (1), another Baffert runner under E. Jaramillo, is a live pace factor from the rail. If Taif (1) breaks sharply and Nevada Beach (9) is content to stalk outside, Taif (1) could control the inner rail and attempt to carry his speed a long way. He is particularly interesting in exactas and trifectas.

Mr. A. P. (6), trained by Vladimir Cerin and ridden by Joel Rosario, is a lighter-weighted entrant who may get a favorable trip sitting off the speed pack. His ability to relax and finish makes him a solid candidate for the second and third spots, especially if the leaders drive each other into fatigue.

Mcafee (3), trained by George Weaver with Hector Berrios aboard, and Vodka Vodka (2), trained by Aggie Ordonez and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, both own enough class and finishing power to be minor upset threats if the pace collapses or the favorite encounters difficulties.

Longshots

Midnight Mammoth (5), with Tyler Baze, is the longest shot in most published lines. He will need a major step forward to threaten the win, but at a huge price, he could outrun expectations and fill out deeper exotics if he clings to the leaders longer than expected.

Selections

Win: Nevada Beach (9)

Place: Original Sin (4)

Show: Caldera (8)

Race 8 is the focal point of the card and a key leg in the pick-six. Many multi-race bettors will treat Nevada Beach (9) as a strong single, but there is legitimate reason to include Original Sin (4) and Caldera (8) on backup tickets. In race-specific wagers, consider win bets on Nevada Beach (9) alongside an exacta box with Original Sin (4) and Caldera (8). A trifecta key of 9 over 4,8,7,1 over 4,8,7,1,6,3,2 allows for value contributions from Taif (1), Forged Steel (7), and Mr. A. P. (6).

RACE 9 — Post 8:10/7:10/6:10/(5:10) — 1430f | T | G3 | JCHarris-G3 | BOF | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 3 John C. Harris Stakes is run about 6 1/2 furlongs down the hillside turf, restricted to three-year-old fillies. Mo' Em Down (1), R Slew Of Cash (5), Day To Day (8), and Little Opal (10) show speed, while Yours Sincerely (4), Brave Deb (3), and Seeking Attention (2) are more stalking or closing types. Surfin' U. S. A. (6), Come On Om (7), and Run With Liberty (9) sit somewhere in the middle, depending on break.

Given the hillside setup and multiple speed types, a lively pace is expected. Fillies that can sit just behind the first cluster and handle the transition from downhill run to flat stretch will be favored.

Key Contenders

Yours Sincerely (4), trained by Phil D'Amato and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, is the morning-line favorite and a key contender. Her stalking style is perfectly suited to the hillside turf, and D'Amato's proficiency in turf sprints adds to her appeal. From the four hole, Yours Sincerely (4) should secure a comfortable mid-pack position, saving ground while watching the early leaders, then unleashing a measured late run.

Little Opal (10), trained by Doug O'Neill and ridden by E. Jaramillo, has been highlighted as a best bet by at least one handicapping analysis for this card. Her outside draw gives her an advantageous view of the pace inside, and she can either press the leaders or sit just off them, preserving momentum. If Little Opal (10) handles the hillside course as expected, she is a major win threat.

Mo' Em Down (1), trained by Peter Miller and ridden by Juan Hernandez, draws the rail with pace and grit. Miller's turf sprinters often perform well down the hill, and Mo' Em Down (1) could secure the inside lead or an ideal pocket trip. If she breaks sharply and avoids getting trapped, she can fight on gamely in the stretch.

Secondary Choices

Brave Deb (3), trained by Richard Mandella with Joel Rosario up, is a strong secondary contender. Her ability to sit mid-pack and produce a late run makes her a natural fit for the hillside course. Rosario's patience and timing often produce strong finishes in these configuration races, giving Brave Deb (3) a legitimate chance to hit the exacta or trifecta.

Day To Day (8), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, offers pace and outside positioning. She can track the leaders and make a wide, sustained run, potentially avoiding any inside traffic or crossing issues.

R Slew Of Cash (5), also trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Edwin Gonzalez aboard, is another pace type who could prove stubborn if allowed to set or press reasonable fractions.

Seeking Attention (2), trained by Peter Eurton with Armando Ayuso, is more of a mid-pack type, potentially capable of picking up pieces late if the leaders tire.

Longshots

Surfin' U. S. A. (6), trained by Leonard Powell with Kazushi Kimura, and Come On Om (7), trained by Sean McCarthy with Tyler Baze, both look like longshots who could outrun their odds. Surfin' U. S. A. (6) may enjoy the hillside trip and make a late run, while Come On Om (7) could be forwardly placed and hang on for a minor share. Run With Liberty (9), trained by Jeff Mullins and ridden by Kyle Frey, is another price option who could become a factor if she improves with experience.

Selections

Win: Little Opal (10)

Place: Yours Sincerely (4)

Show: Mo' Em Down (1)

Race 9 is an excellent betting race with multiple viable contenders. The best angle is to focus on Little Opal (10) and Yours Sincerely (4) for win and exacta wagers, while including Mo' Em Down (1) as a key pace player. Exacta boxes with 10 and 4, plus exactas 10,4 over 1,3,8 can capture the likely outcomes. Trifectas keyed 10 over 4,1,3 over 4,1,3,5,8,6,9 offer room for price horses like Brave Deb (3), Day To Day (8), or Surfin' U. S. A. (6) to enhance payouts.

RACE 10 — Post 8:40/7:40/6:40/(5:40) — 1320f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $65,000

Pace Analysis

Race 10 is a six-furlong statebred maiden special weight on turf, closing out the pick-six sequence. Several fillies show potential speed: Zuzu's Classic Gal (3), Allied Fleet (4), Godbless Her (8), and Stella Blue Moon (9) figure to be prominent early. Elegant Emma (2), Helping Hand (5), and Acclaim Perfection (10) may track just behind. Sally's Wish (1), Blame The Track (6), Running Iron (7), Supreme Wind (11), Sissel (12), and Training Good (13) are more likely to be mid-pack or closing types.

The early fractions should be honest, but with maiden fillies, some may hesitate from the gate. This race rewards fillies who break cleanly, secure tactical positions, and finish professionally on turf.

Key Contenders

Zuzu's Classic Gal (3), trained by Mark Glatt and ridden by Abel Lezcano, is the morning-line favorite and a key contender. Glatt's turf sprinters are consistently well-prepared, and Zuzu's Classic Gal (3) has the pedigree and connections to run strongly at first asking or improving again. From the three post, she should secure a forward position and get first run on many closers.

Allied Fleet (4), trained by Carla Gaines and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, is an appealing alternative. Gaines and Rispoli are a strong turf combination, and Allied Fleet (4) may be ideally suited to sit just off the leaders before producing a measured late run. Her draw is favorable for saving ground and still having clear room to quicken.

Acclaim Perfection (10), trained by John Sadler and ridden by Juan Hernandez, is another major player. From the outside, Acclaim Perfection (10) can avoid inside congestion and gradually move into the race. Sadler's turf maidens often show strong progress, making Acclaim Perfection (10) a serious win candidate if she breaks well.

Secondary Choices

Godbless Her (8), trained by Doug O'Neill with Pascacio Lopez up, offers speed and outside positioning. She can be among the early leaders and may prove tough if she relaxes. Stella Blue Moon (9), another Glatt trainee ridden by Ricardo Gonzalez, adds depth to the barn's presence. She may sit mid-pack but could be asked to show more early speed.

Helping Hand (5), trained by Mike Puype and ridden by Joel Rosario, is a mid-pack type with potential to improve, especially if the pace turns stronger than expected. Elegant Emma (2), trained by Vann Belvoir with Kazushi Kimura, may also sit mid-pack and try to run late.

Sally's Wish (1), with Epifanio Garcia, Blame The Track (6), with E. Maldonado, Running Iron (7), with Armando Aguilar, Supreme Wind (11), with Kyle Frey, Sissel (12), with Drayden Van Dyke, and Training Good (13), with Armando Ayuso, all offer varying degrees of upside as longer-priced maiden fillies in a complex race.

Longshots

Supreme Wind (11), Sissel (12), and Training Good (13) are likely to be among the longest prices in the field, but each could outrun odds if they take to turf and receive favorable trips. For superfecta players, including these fillies in the bottom of tickets is a sensible way to capture any unexpected improvement.

Selections

Win: Zuzu's Classic Gal (3)

Place: Acclaim Perfection (10)

Show: Allied Fleet (4)

Race 10 is a challenging but potentially lucrative finale. The best approach is to lean on Zuzu's Classic Gal (3), Acclaim Perfection (10), and Allied Fleet (4) in win, exacta, and multi-race wagers, while spreading in deeper vertical exotics. Exacta boxes of 3 and 10, plus exactas 3,10 over 4,8,9,5, provide coverage. Trifectas keyed 3 over 10,4,8 over 10,4,8,9,5,2,11,12,13 can capture late surprises from price runners.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Juan Hernandez has a powerful book, including mounts on Dr. Filkins (2) in Race 1, Liam Smith (1) and San Saba (6) in Race 4, Freedom's Not Free (3) in Race 5, Not So Merry Mary (3) in Race 6, Mondego (1) in Race 7, Nevada Beach (9) in Race 8, Mo' Em Down (1) in Race 9, and Acclaim Perfection (10) in Race 10. His presence on key favorites and tactical horses throughout the card makes him a central figure in any jockey-based betting strategy.

Umberto Rispoli is live on turf all day, with Doing Time (7) in Race 1, King Of Gosford (6) in Race 3, Clouseau (4) in Race 4, Sorrento Sky (6) in Race 5, Savvy Tiger (9) in Race 6, Atitlan (7) in Race 7, Yours Sincerely (4) in Race 9, and Allied Fleet (4) in Race 10. Rispoli's turf craft and track familiarity make his mounts prime candidates for strong trips.

Joel Rosario rides several important closers and mid-pack types, including Monsieur Big (1) in Race 1, Irish Aces (5) in Race 3, For All Mankind (2) in Race 4, First Peace (8) in Race 5, Mr. A. P. (6) in Race 8, Brave Deb (3) in Race 9, and Helping Hand (5) in Race 10. His patient style is especially valuable in turf and route races, offering strong upside for late-run scenarios.

Kazushi Kimura's Southern California presence is felt via Going Nowhere (5) in Race 1, Naftis (1) in Race 2, Atomic Age (3) in Race 7, Original Sin (4) in Race 8, Surfin' U. S. A. (6) in Race 9, and Elegant Emma (2) and potentially others in Race 10. His mounts often offer both tactical speed and finishing power, making him a rider to follow lightly in exotic structures.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Bob Baffert targets the feature races with San Saba (6) in Race 4 and the powerful Goodwood duo Taif (1) and Nevada Beach (9) in Race 8. Nevada Beach (9) is his marquee horse today, and given Baffert's track record with older route runners at Santa Anita, Nevada Beach (9) will attract strong support as a key single for many bettors.

Phil D'Amato is loaded on turf, with King Of Gosford (6) in the City of Hope Mile (Race 3), Sorrento Sky (6) in the Eddie D (Race 5), Savvy Tiger (9) in Race 6, Yours Sincerely (4) in Race 9, and Atomic Age (3) in Race 7. His runners are well-positioned across multiple graded and allowance races, making D'Amato a central figure in any turf-focused betting plan.

Richard Mandella has quality throughout the card, including Sumter (1) and Amorita (4) in Race 5, Sinsel (2) and Atitlan (7) in Race 7, and Brave Deb (3) in Race 9. Mandella's patient handling of turf and stakes horses often results in strong efforts on big days.

Saffie Joseph Jr. brings a formidable presence in the Goodwood Stakes with Forged Steel (7) and Caldera (8), and in the late turf sprint and downhill stakes via Day To Day (8) and R Slew Of Cash (5) in Race 9. His horses frequently show tactical speed and resilience, making them dangerous in both dirt routes and turf sprints.

Local conditioners like Peter Miller, Doug O'Neill, George Papaprodromou, and Carla Gaines have live runners sprinkled through the card, particularly in turf sprints and statebred maiden races, and should be considered whenever building multi-race tickets.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Today's card features a pick-six carryover of $23,991, with the sequence covering Races 5 through 10, including the Eddie D (Race 5), the statebred juvenile maiden (Race 6), the John Henry Turf Championship (Race 7), the Goodwood Stakes (Race 8), the John C. Harris Stakes (Race 9), and the statebred turf maiden finale (Race 10). This structure makes the mid- and late-card analysis particularly valuable.

In the pick-six, races with strong favorites can serve as potential singles. Nevada Beach (9) in Race 8 is the most obvious single candidate, given his Grade 1 record and heavy favorite status. King Of Gosford (6) in Race 3 and Not So Merry Mary (3) in Race 6 can be used as A-level plays in the pick-5 and pick-4 sequences, though some bettors may prefer modest coverage with El Potente (2) and Savvy Tiger (9) respectively.

Value plays emerge in races where the form is more open. In the

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