Tip Sheet - Analysis of Expert Picks and Statistical Consensus for Churchill Downs September 21, 2025.

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	D
3rd Party Ratings	F	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	D
3rd Party Ratings	F	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	C	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	F	A
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	D	F
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	C	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	C	F
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	C	F
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	F	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	C	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	B	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	A
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	D	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	F	C
Distance Speed	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	D	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	F	F
Turf Speed	B	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

TL;DR

Race 1 picks

Kaitlin Free: 4 Bridgie Bop; 3 My Little Wildcat; 5 Catching Heat; 1 Starlit Sofi
Tony Calo: 3 My Little Wildcat; 5 Catching Heat; 6 Rocio; 2 Yes to Champagne; 1 Starlit Sofi (mapped from 3-5-6/2-1)
Racing Dudes: 1 Starlit Sofi (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 2 Yes To Champagne; 6 Rocio; 4 Bridgie Bop
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 5 Catching Heat; 1 Starlit Sofi; 2 Yes to Champagne
Consensus (ranked): 5 Catching Heat; 1 Starlit Sofi; 3 My Little Wildcat (broadest support across lists; tiebreaks by average rank)

Race 2 picks

Kaitlin Free: 7 Macron; 5 Lunar Module; 2 Outlier; 6 Play the Trumpet
Tony Calo: 2 Outlier; 6 Play the Trumpet; 5 Lunar Module; 1 Bolt At Midnight; 3 Hocus (mapped from 2-6-5/1-3)
Racing Dudes: 4 Furious Anger (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 6 Play The Trumpet; 7 Macron; 3 Hocus
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 5 Lunar Module; 4 Furious Anger; 6 Play the Trumpet
Consensus (ranked): 5 Lunar Module; 6 Play the Trumpet; 4 Furious Anger (Macron next)

Race 3 picks

Kaitlin Free: 11 Sgt. Garcia; 9 Tully; 2 Election Night; 7 Just Like Max
Tony Calo: 4 Dr Fenn; 2 Election Night; 1 C. P. A. Jim; 6 Maximus C; 8 Barstool; 3 I Forgot to Ask; 5 Sparkling Speed (mapped from 4/2-1-6/8-3-5)
Racing Dudes: 2 Election Night (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 4 Dr Fenn; 7 Just Like Max; 12 Two Seven O
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 5 Sparkling Speed; 13 State Conceal; 11 Sgt. Garcia
Consensus (ranked): 2 Election Night; 11 Sgt. Garcia; 4 Dr Fenn (close cluster behind includes Tully and Just Like Max)

Race 4 picks

Kaitlin Free: 7 Khetam; 5 Thesheriffisnear; 9 Royal Causeway; 10 Very Connected
Tony Calo: 5 Thesheriffisnear; 7 Khetam; 1 Southern Soul; 4 Swerve; 6 Mr. Vaggio (mapped from 5-7-1/4-6)
Racing Dudes: 5 Thesheriffisnear (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 10 Very Connected; 11 Tailored; 9 Royal Causeway
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 2 Like Water; 10 Very Connected; 8 Prince of Light
Consensus (ranked): 5 Thesheriffisnear; 7 Khetam; 10 Very Connected (Royal Causeway and Like Water next)

Race 5 picks

Kaitlin Free: 5 Raising Kane; 8 El Cordobes; 6 King Peanut; 2 Where's Randy
Tony Calo: 3 Beck's Spirit; 4 Explosively; 6 King Peanut; 2 Where's Randy; 1 God Of Wine (mapped from 3-4/…-6-2-1…, excluding non-existent numbers)
Racing Dudes: 6 King Peanut (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 6 King Peanut; 4 Explosively; 3 Beck's Spirit
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 6 King Peanut; 4 Explosively; 7 Right On Right On
Consensus (ranked): 6 King Peanut; 4 Explosively; 3 Beck's Spirit (Raising Kane next)

Race 6 picks

Kaitlin Free: 10 Rest of the World; 3 Pointsetmatch; 1 Hard to Get; 9 Adalene
Tony Calo: 4 Pour a Little More; 3 Pointsetmatch; 5 Bonita Vida; 2 People Get Ready; 1 Hard to Get; 8 She's All Ellie; 7 Well Aware (mapped from 4/3-5/2-1/8-7)
Racing Dudes: 3 Pointsetmatch (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 10 Rest Of The World; 4 Pour A Little More; 3 Pointsetmatch
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 3 Pointsetmatch; 4 Pour a Little More; 10 Rest of the World
Consensus (ranked): 3 Pointsetmatch; 10 Rest of the World; 4 Pour a Little More

Race 7 picks

Kaitlin Free: 1 Arthur Jr; 3 White Whale; 8 Evan On Earth; 7 Game and Smart
Tony Calo: 3 White Whale; 2 Mashburn; 4 Valiant Humor; 5 The Chalk; 6 Galantini; 1 Arthur Jr (mapped from 3-2/4-5-6-1)
Racing Dudes: 8 Evan On Earth (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 4 Valiant Humor; 2 Mashburn; 5 The Chalk
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 8 Evan On Earth; 3 White Whale; 4 Valiant Humor
Consensus (ranked): 8 Evan On Earth; 4 Valiant Humor; 3 White Whale (Mashburn next)

Race 8 picks

Kaitlin Free: 3 Sam's Treasure; 1 Into Champagne; 4 Marmalade Skye; 6 Princess Madison
Tony Calo: 1 Into Champagne; 3 Sam's Treasure; 7 Tripolina; 5 Hillerito; 6 Princess Madison (mapped from 1-3-7/5/6)
Racing Dudes: 4 Marmalade Skye (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 6 Princess Madison; 5 Hillerito; 4 Marmalade Skye
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 3 Sam's Treasure; 6 Princess Madison; 5 Hillerito
Consensus (ranked): 3 Sam's Treasure; 4 Marmalade Skye; 6 Princess Madison (Into Champagne next)

Race 9 picks

Kaitlin Free: 4 Rowdy Riot; 5 Glacial Power; 11 Our Starry Night; 3 Mi Dinero
Tony Calo: 4 Rowdy Riot; 1 Wakan; 6 Oh Please; 7 Gardiner; 5 Glacial Power; 8 This Time (mapped from 4/1-6-7/5-8)
Racing Dudes: 7 Gardiner (top pick)
SportsBetting3 (W-P-S): 5 Glacial Power; 1 Wakan; 4 Rowdy Riot
Sports From The Basement (top 3): 9 Miracle Worker; 11 Our Starry Night; 5 Glacial Power
Consensus (ranked): 4 Rowdy Riot; 5 Glacial Power; 11 Our Starry Night (Gardiner and Wakan next)

Tip Sheet – Analysis of Expert Picks and Statistical Consensus for Churchill Downs September 21, 2025.

Race 1 picks

Race 2 picks

Race 3 picks

Race 4 picks

Race 5 picks

Race 6 picks

Race 7 picks

Race 8 picks

Race 9 picks

Related

Comments

TalkbackCancel reply

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Figure Comparison

Winning Profiles

AI Model Comparison

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

AI Model History Guide

Performance vs. Peers Guide