Further Ado will get the trip his connections wanted when he breaks from post one in Saturday's $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland, with Flavien Prat aboard for trainer Brad Cox. The 3-year-old is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the 2:26 p.m. Race 6, according to the published race entries.
The rail draw completes a significant change in plans. Further Ado was pre-entered for both the Dirt Mile and the $7 million Breeders' Cup Classic, but Cox and Spendthrift Farm chose the shorter race after weighing the depth of the Classic field. Cox told Breeders' Cup reporters that the decision was aimed at giving the colt his best chance to win, rather than questioning his ability to handle a mile and a quarter. Cox's comments made clear that the quality of the Classic opposition, not merely the distance, drove the switch.
The choice is supported by Further Ado's unusually strong record at the Lexington track. He is 2-for-2 at Keeneland, having won a maiden race by 20 lengths last October before returning in April to dominate the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes by 11 lengths. That performance established him as one of the most dangerous dirt horses in the division, even though his Kentucky Derby effort later that spring failed to match the Blue Grass explosion. The Courier Journal lists his overall record as 4-2-1 in 10 starts and confirms both Keeneland victories. The horse's record and course history give the favorite a persuasive local angle.
His latest race also suggests that Further Ado is arriving in better shape than his raw form line may imply. He was beaten by only half a length by The Puma in the Sept. 19 Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby at 1 1/8 miles, a finish that followed a victory in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes. He then sharpened for the Breeders' Cup with a five-furlong Churchill Downs work in 1:00.4 on Oct. 24, fourth-fastest of 38 works at the distance. The reported worktab points to a colt maintaining his edge rather than one being asked to recover it.
The opposition is more seasoned and, on paper, more evenly matched than the favorite's price suggests. Bracket Buster is the second choice at 7-2 from post seven, followed by Coal Battle at 6-1 from post five and Chunk of Gold at 8-1 from post four. Full Serrano and Owen Almighty are each listed at 10-1, while T Kraft, Lord Fons, Moonlight, Forged Steel and Iron Man Cal complete the 11-horse field. The full entries show a race containing both proven graded-stakes runners and horses positioned to capitalize if the favorite fails to reproduce his Keeneland peak.
That makes the rail more than a ceremonial advantage. Prat can allow Further Ado to save ground while keeping the colt within striking range, a particularly useful setup if the older horses contest the early pace. Keeneland's one-mile dirt configuration leaves little room for wasted motion, and Further Ado's two dominant victories here make him the logical horse to beat. The risk is that the inside post can become restrictive if he breaks slowly or gets crowded, but Cox's decision has placed his best course, his preferred distance and a sharp recent work behind the same objective: one final Grade 1 victory before Further Ado begins his stud career at Spendthrift. Cox's recent comments describe the Dirt Mile as his planned career finale.
