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Welcome to closing day of the 2025 fall meet at Aqueduct. The day’s card features eight races on the main dirt track, comprising a mix of maiden special weights, maiden claimers, claiming races, and allowance events. With several competitive fields, bettors will find potential for value across the card. As this is the final day before a holiday break, some stables may be looking to secure a final win for the meet. Bettors should pay close attention to any late scratches and changes in track conditions.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for the Queens, New York area calls for very cold temperatures, ranging from approximately 19°F to 30°F (-7°C to -1°C). There is a possibility of snow, which could impact the track surface, potentially leading to a sealed or “winterized” track. As of the morning, the track is listed as fast, but participants should monitor for any changes throughout the day. Cold weather can sometimes favor front-running horses, and any moisture would significantly alter how the track plays.
Track Bias Analysis
Historically, Aqueduct’s main track was known for favoring speed, but a renovation several years ago has made it a more versatile surface that can also be favorable to closers. Recent racing in early December has shown the track playing fairly, with no overwhelming, consistent bias. However, on certain days, an inside path and tactical speed have proven advantageous, particularly if the early pace is uncontested.
For post positions, inside draws from posts 1-3 are generally considered favorable on the dirt for both sprints and routes. One-mile races, which are contested around one turn, have historically given an edge to speed horses and those breaking from the inside. In the event of a sloppy or sealed track, jockeys often prefer to guide their mounts to the middle of the track in the stretch, which can mitigate a strong inside advantage. Watching the early races will be crucial to determine how the track is playing today.
Race 1
Post Time: 12:40 PM EST – Maiden Claiming
This is a maiden claiming race for two-year-old fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs. Note the scratches of #2 Alma’s Law and #7 Lucky Lucky Me. The scratch of Lucky Lucky Me is significant, as the horse was considered a primary contender.
Key Contenders
With the key scratches, the race appears to open up. The consensus from available selections points toward #6 Doppio Espresso as a primary contender, especially with leading jockey Flavien Prat taking the mount for trainer Raymond Handal. This combination of a hot jockey and a well-regarded horse makes for a formidable entry. Another horse drawing attention is #1 Asking, from the respected barn of William I. Mott, who is often well-prepared for a debut. #5 Marajoline also figures into the mix based on selections from multiple handicappers. #3 Clarividente is also noted as a contender in some analyses.
Selections
Win: #6 Doppio Espresso
Place: #1 Asking
Show: #5 Marajoline
Race 2
Post Time: 01:10 PM EST – Maiden Special Weight
A full field of New York-bred fillies and mares will contest this one-mile maiden special weight. The scratch of #2 On a Summer Day slightly alters the field.
Key Contenders
Expert selections suggest a competitive race. #5 Princess Wadadli, with Flavien Prat aboard for trainer Robert Falcone, Jr., is consistently highlighted as a top choice. The horse is expected to take significant money. #7 Bodegas, trained by Kevin Bond and ridden by Manny Franco, is another who appears frequently in selections and should be a major factor. Also mentioned as a possibility is #3 Lady Delilah, who could offer some value. For exotic wagers, #1 Morgana’s Moment is noted as a horse to include.
Selections
Win: #5 Princess Wadadli
Place: #7 Bodegas
Show: #3 Lady Delilah
Race 3
Post Time: 01:40 PM EST – Allowance Optional Claiming
This allowance optional claiming race at 1 1/8 miles has been significantly affected by the scratches of #1 Whittington Park, #3 Waitlist, and #7 Dreamlike.
Key Contenders
With three key horses out, #4 Valentinian stands out as a probable heavy favorite. This Todd Pletcher trainee will be ridden by Flavien Prat, a powerful combination that is hard to ignore. The horse has shown significant promise. Among the remaining runners, #9 Bramito, with Manny Franco, is a logical contender who has performed well at this level. #8 Makes Sense is another to consider, having been mentioned in some pre-scratch analyses. #6 Double Your Money has also been noted as a contender by some analysts.
Selections
Win: #4 Valentinian
Place: #9 Bramito
Show: #8 Makes Sense
Race 4
Post Time: 02:10 PM EST – Maiden Special Weight
This is a one-mile maiden special weight for New York-bred two-year-old fillies.
Key Contenders
Analysis for this race points towards the coupled entry from trainer Horacio De Paz. #2 Fabian’s Princess, with leading jockey Flavien Prat, is a strong contender and likely favorite. The stablemate, #6 Bernina Express with Manny Franco, also merits respect. #4 Margarita Molly, ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, is another consistently mentioned as a key player in this race. #1 Raynham Hall and #7 Mathea are others that could factor into the exotics based on available selections.
Selections
Win: #2 Fabian’s Princess
Place: #4 Margarita Molly
Show: #6 Bernina Express
Race 5
Post Time: 02:40 PM EST – Starter Allowance
This is a starter allowance at one mile for fillies and mares. The field is reduced by the scratches of #1 Sassafrassness and #2 Baby Sassicaia.
Key Contenders
Based on consensus handicapping, #7 Melle Mel, with Flavien Prat riding for Thomas Morley, appears to be a strong win candidate. The horse is coming into the race with good form. The Linda Rice-trained entry of #5 Kadena and #10 Chocolatechocolate demands respect, given Rice’s dominance at the meet. #9 Sassy Princess, trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and ridden by Manny Franco, is another that is consistently ranked among the top contenders by handicappers.
Selections
Win: #7 Melle Mel
Place: #9 Sassy Princess
Show: #5 Kadena
Race 6
Post Time: 03:10 PM EST – Maiden Claiming
This is a 6 1/2 furlong maiden claiming race for New York-bred two-year-old fillies. #5 Wayward Queen has been scratched.
Key Contenders
The consensus pick in this race is #6 Baseball Lady, trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr. and ridden by Flavien Prat. This combination is always dangerous. #1 Makealittlelove, from the barn of George Weaver with Manny Franco up, is also highly regarded and expected to be a primary challenger. #3 Island Charm, with Jaime Rodriguez riding, is another that appears in the top tier of selections and merits consideration for all wagers.
Selections
Win: #6 Baseball Lady
Place: #1 Makealittlelove
Show: #3 Island Charm
Race 7
Post Time: 03:40 PM EST – Claiming
This one-mile claiming race features older horses. The field is impacted by the scratches of #4 Skylander and #5 Tizmarkus.
Key Contenders
The standout in this field is #8 Aggregation, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Manny Franco. Dropping into the claiming ranks for a top barn makes this horse a formidable favorite. A primary challenger appears to be #6 Lotsa Trouble, a Todd Pletcher trainee with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. The combination of a top trainer and a capable jockey makes this horse a logical contender. Other horses to consider for minor awards include #7 Create Trouble and #3 Blame It On Daddy.
Selections
Win: #8 Aggregation
Place: #6 Lotsa Trouble
Show: #7 Create Trouble
Race 8
Post Time: 04:10 PM EST – Maiden Claiming
The final race of the day is a maiden claiming event at one mile. The field is significantly smaller after the scratches of #6 Dr. Insel, #7 Enduring Angel, and #11 Grand Commander.
Key Contenders
In the finale, the Linda Rice-trained entry of #10 Sequential is the consensus choice to win. With Jose Lezcano riding, this horse appears to be in a prime spot. The main rival is #1 Thorsness, from the Todd Pletcher barn with Flavien Prat aboard. This sets up a classic battle between two of the top trainers on the circuit. #9 Career Risk is another Rice entrant that merits consideration, rounding out a powerful presence for the trainer in this race.
Selections
Win: #10 Sequential
Place: #1 Thorsness
Show: #9 Career Risk
Jockey Notes and Insights
Flavien Prat is having a dominant fall meet at Aqueduct, leading all riders with an exceptional 32.5% win rate from 120 starts. He has demonstrated a keen ability to get his mounts into winning positions and is a significant upgrade for any horse. His mounts, particularly for top trainers like Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, must be given extra consideration. He is named on several key contenders today, including #6 Doppio Espresso (Race 1), #5 Princess Wadadli (Race 2), #4 Valentinian (Race 3), #2 Fabian’s Princess (Race 4), #7 Melle Mel (Race 5), #6 Baseball Lady (Race 6), and #1 Thorsness (Race 8).
Manuel Franco is also having a strong meet, sitting second in the jockey standings with 26 wins. He has a history of success at Aqueduct, having won multiple riding titles here. He is a reliable and capable rider who consistently gets the best out of his mounts. He partners with several live runners today, including for top trainers Linda Rice and Chad Brown.
Kendrick Carmouche and Jose Lezcano are also in the top tier of the jockey colony. Carmouche sits third in the standings, while Lezcano boasts a strong 17.4% win rate. Both are experienced veterans of the New York circuit and are capable of winning on any given day.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice is the story of the 2025 NYRA season. She recently broke the single-season record for wins on the circuit and is the leading trainer at the current Aqueduct fall meet with 24 victories. Her horses are consistently well-spotted and running in top form. She has demonstrated a particular knack for improving horses via the claim and placing them in positions to succeed. Her entries today, including the pair of #5 Kadena and #10 Chocolatechocolate (Race 5) and #9 Career Risk and #10 Sequential (Race 8), warrant serious attention.
Todd Pletcher remains one of the most powerful trainers in North America and has a long history of success at Aqueduct. He is a master at developing young talent and winning at all levels of the sport. His runners are always dangerous, particularly when paired with a top jockey like Flavien Prat. Key Pletcher runners today include #4 Valentinian (Race 3) and #1 Thorsness (Race 8).
Chad Brown also maintains a powerful presence in New York. Though he has fewer starters than some other trainers, his win percentage is consistently among the highest. When he enters a horse, particularly in a spot where it appears to have a class edge like #8 Aggregation (Race 7), bettors must take notice.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Given the potential for a tricky track surface due to cold weather, the best strategy is to observe the first few races to see if any bias is developing. If inside speed begins to dominate, adjust your handicapping accordingly. Conversely, if the track is playing fair or favoring closers, that will open up possibilities for off-the-pace runners.
The combination of leading jockey Flavien Prat and top trainers like Todd Pletcher and Linda Rice has been formidable. Focusing on their runners in multi-race wagers like the Pick 3 and Pick 5 could be a sound strategy. For example, a Pick 3 starting in Race 1 could key #6 Doppio Espresso with other top contenders.
In races with heavy favorites like #4 Valentinian (Race 3) and #8 Aggregation (Race 7), look for value in the exacta by trying to find a price horse to run second. In Race 3, with a short field, #9 Bramito or #8 Makes Sense could complete the exacta at decent odds.
The most competitive races on paper appear to be the maiden events (Races 1, 2, 4, 6, 8), where inexperienced horses can often lead to unpredictable results and rewarding payouts. Spreading deep in these legs of multi-race wagers is advisable. The day’s finale, Race 8, presents a clear battle between the top barns of Linda Rice and Todd Pletcher, offering a classic handicapping puzzle to close out the meet.
