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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Aqueduct presents an eight-race program this Sunday, building toward the featured seventh race, a one-mile claiming contest with an $80,000 purse. The card offers a mix of claiming races, starter optional claiming events, and New York-bred opportunities throughout the afternoon. Post time for the first race is 12:40 PM with the final race scheduled for 4:08 PM.
The card includes races for various conditions, beginning with fillies and mares in a one-mile claiming event, progressing through starter optional claiming races for three-year-olds and older horses, and featuring New York-bred allowances. The winter meet continues with competitive fields typical of this time of year, where form and fitness become paramount factors.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Aqueduct on January 11 calls for challenging conditions. Temperatures will range from the low 20s to around 40 degrees Fahrenheit, with snow showers expected in the afternoon. Winds will be significant, coming from the west at 20 to 30 mph with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph. The track surface is expected to be rated good to possibly sloppy depending on precipitation timing and accumulation.
These winter conditions typically favor horses that can handle wet tracks and maintain footing in windy conditions. The cold temperatures may affect some horses differently, particularly those not acclimated to winter racing in the Northeast. Handicappers should pay close attention to horses with proven wet track form and solid recent workouts indicating fitness.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Aqueduct's main track has shown varied biases depending on conditions. Recent analysis indicates that inside posts can be disadvantageous, particularly in fields of eight or more runners. The impact value for posts one through three runs around 0.85, suggesting these positions underperform relative to statistical expectations. Conversely, outside posts eight and beyond show stronger impact values ranging from 1.4 to 2.0 depending on distance.
On fast or firm ground, the rail can provide an advantage if a horse secures good position early. However, in wet or sloppy conditions, jockeys typically aim to stay off the rail where footing tends to be better. The track has become more versatile since being relayed, potentially favoring strong finishers rather than pure speed types. In winter conditions with a potentially sloppy track, stalkers and closers who can avoid the inside path may have an advantage.
Race 1 – Claiming
Post Time: 12:40 PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile dirt race for fillies and mares features a compact field of five runners. The pace projects as moderate with no clear need-to-lead types. Coquito and Luna Moth have shown tactical speed and should secure forward positions without engaging in a speed duel. Enigmatic and Whistler's Style have mid-pack running styles, while Foxy Cara typically comes from well off the pace. The moderate pace setup should favor horses with good tactical speed who can secure comfortable early position.
Key Contenders
Coquito enters off a solid effort at this level and distance, showing consistency in recent starts. The five-year-old mare has tactical speed and should get a good trip from the inside post. Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount, and the combination of horse and rider has been competitive in recent outings. The Michelle Giangiulio trainee has hit the board in four of her last six starts, indicating solid form.
Luna Moth represents the Friedman barn and gets Christopher Elliott in the irons. This six-year-old mare has been competitive at this level and distance, showing a good late kick in her recent efforts. She has finished in the money in three of her last five starts and should benefit from the moderate pace projection.
Secondary Choices
Enigmatic has shown flashes of ability but lacks consistency. The Synnefias-trained mare has speed figures competitive with the top pair but needs to put together a complete effort. Jaime Rodriguez retains the mount, and if she breaks cleanly and secures good position, she could factor in the outcome.
Whistler's Style is the veteran of the group at eight years old and has been competitive at this level in the past. The Rice-trained mare has the tactical speed to be forwardly placed but has been inconsistent in recent outings. Ruben Silvera gets the call.
Longshots
Foxy Cara is a longshot at 20-1 morning line odds but has shown ability in the past. The Figueroa-trained mare has been off form recently but could improve with a change in tactics or equipment. She would need her best effort and some pace meltdown to factor.
Selections
Win: Coquito
Place: Luna Moth
Show: Enigmatic
Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time: 1:09 PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile event for three-year-olds features a field of five with varied running styles. Southeastern appears to be the controlling speed and should secure the early lead. The Obliterator and Bala de Plata have shown tactical speed and could press the pace. Our Notion and Capanaparo typically race from mid-pack or further back. The pace projects as honest but not blistering, which should allow closers to have their chance.
Key Contenders
Southeastern looks like the horse to beat for the Cox barn with Flavien Prat aboard. This three-year-old has tactical speed and should get a comfortable lead in a field without many front-runners. The Brad Cox-trained colt has been competitive in recent starts and drops in class from allowance company. Prat's aggressive riding style should ensure good position throughout.
Bala de Plata has been competitive in recent starts for trainer Jamie Ness and gets Jaime Rodriguez in the irons. This three-year-old has shown improvement in his recent efforts and has speed figures that stack up well against this group. The Ness barn has been hitting at a solid clip at the meet.
Secondary Choices
The Obliterator has shown ability but faces a tough spot against more experienced rivals. The Rice-trained colt gets Yedsit Hazlewood aboard and has tactical speed to be forwardly placed. He needs to step forward but could surprise at a price.
Our Notion has been inconsistent but has talent. The Ness-trained gelding gets Ruben Silvera and has shown flashes of ability in recent starts. He would need his best effort but could factor if the pace becomes too hot up front.
Longshots
Capanaparo is the outsider in this group at 9-1 morning line odds. The Dutrow-trained colt has shown limited ability to date but gets Manuel Franco aboard. The connections are capable, and any improvement could make him competitive at a price.
Selections
Win: Southeastern
Place: Bala de Plata
Show: The Obliterator
Race 3 – Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time: 1:38 PM
Pace Analysis
This 5½-furlong sprint features six older horses with varied running styles. Funny Uncle and Gatsby have shown early speed and should secure forward positions. Burninhunkoflove and Scaramanga have tactical speed, while Play and Looms Boldly typically come from off the pace. The short distance means early position will be crucial, and the pace projects as contested but not overly fast.
Key Contenders
Funny Uncle has been in solid form for the Kantarmaci barn, showing tactical speed and consistency. Gokhan Kocakaya gets the mount, and this six-year-old gelding has hit the board in three of his last four starts. The inside post should allow him to secure good position early.
Play has been competitive at this level and gets Flavien Prat aboard for trainer Horacio De Paz. This six-year-old gelding has a good late kick and should benefit from the contested pace up front. Prat's timing and positioning make this horse dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Gatsby has shown ability but lacks consistency. The Kantarmaci-trained gelding gets Manuel Franco and has tactical speed to be forwardly placed. He needs to put together a complete effort but could factor if he breaks cleanly.
Burninhunkoflove has been competitive in recent starts for trainer Fernando Abreu. Jaime Rodriguez retains the mount, and this seven-year-old gelding has shown a good late kick. He could benefit if the pace becomes too hot.
Longshots
Scaramanga has been off form but could improve at a price. The Shivmangal-trained gelding gets Reylu Gutierrez and has shown ability in the past. Any return to form would make him competitive at long odds.
Looms Boldly is the outsider at 15-1 morning line odds. The Noda-trained gelding gets Christopher Elliott and has shown limited recent form but could improve with equipment changes or different tactics.
Selections
Win: Funny Uncle
Place: Play
Show: Gatsby
Race 4 – Claiming
Post Time: 2:08 PM
Pace Analysis
This 6½-furlong race for fillies and mares features six runners with varied running styles. Defended and My First Love have shown tactical speed and should secure forward positions. Best Impression and Open Soul Autism have mid-pack running styles, while Dream On Cara and Problematica typically come from well off the pace. The pace projects as moderate, which should allow closers to have their chance.
Key Contenders
My First Love drops in class after a solid placed effort last time out for the Dutrow barn. Flavien Prat gets the mount on this seven-year-old mare who has strong course form. The class drop and Prat's aggressive riding style make her the one to beat.
Defended has been competitive at this level and gets Jose Antonio Gomez aboard for trainer Michelle Giangiulio. This six-year-old mare has tactical speed and should secure good position from the inside post. She has hit the board in recent starts and figures prominently.
Secondary Choices
Open Soul Autism has shown ability for trainer Chris Englehart and gets Manuel Franco aboard. This five-year-old mare has been competitive at this level and could improve with the right trip. Franco knows the track well and should give her a good ride.
Best Impression has been inconsistent but has talent. The Potts-trained mare gets Jaime Rodriguez and has shown flashes of ability in recent starts. She would need her best effort but could factor at a price.
Longshots
Dream On Cara has been off form but could improve at a price. The Saul-trained mare gets Jose Baez and has shown ability in the past. Any return to form would make her competitive at long odds.
Problematica gets the weight allowance with apprentice jockey Dalila Rivera aboard. The Barrera-trained mare has shown limited recent form but the weight break could help her competitiveness.
Selections
Win: My First Love
Place: Defended
Show: Open Soul Autism
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 2:38 PM
Pace Analysis
This six-furlong maiden claiming event for older horses features eight runners with varied running styles. Midnight Musume and Daw Samaa have shown early speed in recent workouts and races. Lough Currane and Gypsy Dreaming have tactical speed, while the others typically race from mid-pack or further back. The pace projects as moderate with several horses looking to secure forward position.
Key Contenders
Grey Ace has shown consistent form in recent starts for trainer Mitchell Friedman and gets Ruben Silvera aboard. This four-year-old ridgling has been competitive at this level and distance, finishing in the money in recent efforts. The morning line odds of 4-1 offer value on a horse with solid recent form.
Lough Currane has been improving for trainer John Terranova and gets Yedsit Hazlewood aboard. This four-year-old gelding has shown tactical speed and should secure good position from the inside post. The Terranova barn has been competitive at the meet.
Secondary Choices
Gypsy Dreaming has shown ability but needs to put it all together. The Duggan-trained gelding gets Kendrick Carmouche and has tactical speed to be forwardly placed. He needs to break cleanly and secure good position.
Natural Hunk has been competitive in recent starts for trainer Devon Gittens. Jose Antonio Gomez gets the mount on this five-year-old gelding who has shown a good late kick. He could benefit from a contested pace.
Longshots
Midnight Musume has shown early speed but lacks consistency. The Arriaga-trained horse gets Reylu Gutierrez and could be dangerous if allowed to control the pace. At 15-1 morning line odds, she offers value for exotic wagering.
Jamaica Redd has been off form but could improve at a price. The Richards-trained horse gets Trevor Simpson and has shown ability in the past. Any return to form would make him competitive.
How About It and Daw Samaa complete the field and would need significant improvement to factor but could be used in deeper exotic tickets.
Selections
Win: Grey Ace
Place: Lough Currane
Show: Gypsy Dreaming
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time: 3:08 PM
Pace Analysis
This 6½-furlong New York-bred allowance features eight three-year-olds with varied running styles. Pantherian and Escape Hall have shown tactical speed and should secure forward positions. Wamo and Top Player have good early speed, while the others typically race from mid-pack or further back. The pace projects as contested but not overly fast, which should allow closers to have their chance.
Key Contenders
Pantherian looks like a standout for the Pletcher barn with Flavien Prat aboard. This three-year-old colt has tactical speed and should get a good trip from the middle post. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt has been competitive in recent starts and has the class edge in this spot. Prat's timing and positioning make this combination dangerous.
Wamo has been in solid form for trainer Michael Maker and gets Kendrick Carmouche aboard. This three-year-old colt has shown tactical speed and consistency in recent efforts. The Maker barn has been hitting at a solid clip at the meet, and Carmouche knows how to ride this track.
Secondary Choices
Top Player has shown ability for trainer George Weaver and gets Sahin Civaci aboard. This three-year-old colt has tactical speed and should secure good position from the inside post. He needs to step forward but could surprise at a price.
Escape Hall has been competitive in recent starts for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci. Jaime Rodriguez gets the mount on this three-year-old colt who has shown improvement in his recent efforts. He could factor if he breaks cleanly.
Longshots
Party in the Army has shown limited form but gets Manuel Franco aboard for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. The connections are capable, and any improvement could make him competitive at a price.
Sociably Johnny and Instant Success complete the field and would need their best efforts to factor but could be used in exotic tickets. Miami Kaz has shown ability but needs to put it all together.
Selections
Win: Pantherian
Place: Wamo
Show: Top Player
Race 7 – Claiming
Post Time: 3:38 PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile feature race for older horses features eight runners with varied running styles. Crushed It and Light the Way have shown tactical speed and should secure forward positions. Dr. Kraft and Exact Estimate have mid-pack running styles, while the others typically race from further back. The pace projects as moderate, which should allow closers to have their chance in the lane.
Key Contenders
Light the Way has been in excellent form for trainer Linda Rice and gets Kendrick Carmouche aboard. This six-year-old gelding has tactical speed and should get a good trip from the middle post. The Rice barn has been competitive at the meet, and Carmouche knows how to ride this track. The morning line odds of 2-1 reflect his strong form.
Crushed It drops in class for trainer Michael Maker and gets Flavien Prat aboard. This five-year-old gelding has been competitive against tougher company and should appreciate the class relief. Prat's aggressive riding style should ensure good position throughout.
Secondary Choices
Exact Estimate has been competitive at this level for trainer Brad Cox and gets Manuel Franco aboard. This seven-year-old horse has shown consistency in recent starts and could factor if he gets the right trip. Franco knows the track well and should give him a good ride.
Bramito has been off form but could improve at a price. The Schauer-trained gelding gets Yedsit Hazlewood and has shown ability in the past. Any return to form would make him competitive.
Longshots
Noted has shown limited recent form but gets Ruben Silvera aboard for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci. The connections are capable, and any improvement could make him competitive at long odds.
Sunny Breeze has been off form but could improve with equipment changes or different tactics. The Allard-trained gelding gets Sahin Civaci and has shown ability in the past.
Dr. Kraft and Signator complete the field and would need significant improvement to factor but could be used in deeper exotic tickets.
Selections
Win: Light the Way
Place: Crushed It
Show: Exact Estimate
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 4:08 PM
Pace Analysis
This six-furlong maiden claiming race for New York-bred three-year-old fillies features nine runners. Power of Women and My Devine One have shown tactical speed in workouts and should secure forward positions. Probable Angle and Grit N Glitter have good early speed, while the others typically race from mid-pack or further back. The pace projects as moderate, which should allow closers to have their chance.
Key Contenders
My Devine One has been in solid form for trainer William Mott and gets Sahin Civaci aboard. This three-year-old filly has tactical speed and should secure good position from the middle post. The Mott barn is renowned for developing young talent, and Civaci knows how to ride this track. The morning line odds of 5-2 reflect confidence in this filly's ability.
Power of Women has shown consistent form for trainer Charlton Baker and gets Ruben Silvera aboard. This three-year-old filly has tactical speed and should be forwardly placed throughout. Silvera is a capable jockey with good course form at Aqueduct.
Secondary Choices
Grit N Glitter has shown ability for trainer Mark Hennig and gets Kendrick Carmouche aboard. This three-year-old filly has tactical speed and should secure good position from the inside post. Carmouche knows how to ride this track and could give her a good trip.
Probable Angle has been competitive in recent workouts for trainer Dimitrios Synnefias. Julio Hernandez gets the mount on this three-year-old filly who has shown improvement in preparation. She could factor if she breaks cleanly.
Longshots
Game and Blue gets the weight break as a broodmare sire mare and gets Jaime Rodriguez aboard for trainer Thomas Morley. This three-year-old filly has shown ability but needs to put it all together. At 12-1 morning line odds, she offers value for exotic wagering.
Fiona's Joy has shown limited recent form but gets Oscar Gomez aboard for trainer Rachel Sells. The connections are capable, and any improvement could make her competitive at a price.
Quinns Silent Roar has tactical speed and gets Reylu Gutierrez aboard for trainer James Begg. This three-year-old filly could surprise at a price if she gets the right trip.
My First Dinah and Ishkabibble complete the field and would need significant improvement to factor but could be used in deeper exotic tickets.
Selections
Win: My Devine One
Place: Power of Women
Show: Grit N Glitter
Jockey Notes and Insights
Kendrick Carmouche has been one of the leading riders at Aqueduct this winter meet, recording multiple wins across various conditions. His aggressive riding style and track knowledge make him a valuable asset in tactical races where position is crucial. Carmouche gets several quality mounts throughout the card, including Coquito in Race 1, making him a key figure to follow.
Flavien Prat arrives at Aqueduct as an outside jockey with a strong reputation for winning races at top-level competitions. His precision with timing and positioning is evident in his mounts, particularly in races where tactical speed is critical. Prat has quality assignments throughout the card, including Southeastern in Race 2, Pantherian in Race 6, and Crushed It in Race 7, suggesting trainer confidence in his abilities.
Jaime Rodriguez has been consistent at Aqueduct with solid winning percentages. His versatility allows him to adapt to different running styles and track conditions. Rodriguez gets several quality mounts throughout the day, including assignments in races where different running styles are featured.
Ruben Silvera is an experienced rider with strong course form at Aqueduct. His ability to navigate difficult post positions and secure good trips for his mounts makes him valuable in competitive fields. Silvera has quality assignments throughout the card.
Christopher Elliott has been riding well at the meet with several quality mounts. His tactical awareness and ability to save ground make him a valuable rider in contested races where post position might be challenging.
Manuel Franco brings experience from multiple major racing jurisdictions. His smooth riding style and track knowledge make him valuable on any given race day. Franco has several quality assignments throughout the card.
Yedsit Hazlewood and Jose Antonio Gomez round out the rider group with solid connections to various trainers at the meet.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Todd Pletcher is represented by Pantherian in Race 6, the allowance optional claiming event. Pletcher's barn has been in excellent form this winter meet, and his three-year-old colts have shown consistent improvement. Pantherian's tactical speed and recent form make him a standout in his race.
Michael Maker has quality representation throughout the card, with Wamo in Race 6 and Crushed It in Race 7. Maker's barn has maintained solid winning percentages at Aqueduct, and his horses have shown consistent improvement in recent starts.
Brad Cox is represented by Southeastern in Race 2 and Exact Estimate in Race 7. Cox's barn consistently produces competitive runners, and his three-year-olds have shown solid form in starter optional claiming company.
Linda Rice has Light the Way in the featured seventh race, and this six-year-old gelding represents excellent form for the Rice barn. Her runners at Aqueduct have been hitting at a solid clip.
Ilkay Kantarmaci has multiple runners throughout the card, including Funny Uncle in Race 3, Escape Hall in Race 6, and Noted in Race 7. Kantarmaci's barn has been competitive at the meet, and his runners have shown consistent form.
Michelle Giangiulio has Coquito in Race 1 and Defended in Race 4. Her claiming runners have been competitive at the meet, showing consistent form and solid recent performances.
William Mott is represented by My Devine One in Race 8, the closing maiden claiming event. Mott's barn is renowned for developing young talent, and his three-year-old fillies have shown consistent improvement.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card presents several opportunities for exotic wagering, particularly in races where multiple contenders have competitive form. The moderate pace projections in several races suggest that closers and stalkers could have excellent opportunities.
In Race 1, the field is compact but competitive. A box of Coquito, Luna Moth, and Enigmatic offers value in exacta and trifecta wagering at reasonable odds given the competitive nature of the field.
Race 2 presents good value for straight wagering on Southeastern as a likely favorite. However, the race is competitive enough that using multiple horses in exacta and trifecta combinations makes sense, particularly boxing Southeastern with Bala de Plata and The Obliterator.
Race 3 offers value in the exacta with Funny Uncle over Play, given the projected pace and running styles. A wider trifecta box including Gatsby offers value at reasonable odds.
Race 4 is competitive but My First Love appears to be the class of the field. Utilizing her over multiple horses in exacta combinations, particularly pairing her with Defended and Open Soul Autism, offers value.
Race 5 in the maiden claiming event presents multiple contenders at reasonable odds. Grey Ace offers value as a likely underlay, but boxing him with Lough Currane and Gypsy Dreaming in exacta and trifecta combinations makes sense for deeper tickets.
Race 6, the New York-bred allowance, features Pantherian as a likely favorite. Exacta combinations pairing Pantherian with Wamo and Top Player offer value given the competitive field.
Race 7, the feature race, presents multiple contenders at reasonable odds. Light the Way appears to be the class of the field, but using multiple horses in exacta combinations, particularly pairing Light the Way with Crushed It and Exact Estimate, offers value.
Race 8 presents good value in maiden claiming with My Devine One appearing to be the likely favorite. Using her over multiple horses in exacta and trifecta combinations offers value at reasonable odds.
The winter track conditions and potential sloppy surface should be considered when constructing wagering strategies. Horses with proven wet track form and strong recent workouts should be prioritized, particularly in exotic combinations.
A pick-four combination from Race 5 through Race 8 offers value given the competitive nature of those races and the multiple contenders in each. Boxing key contenders in those races at reasonable odds could produce positive results given the overlay potential.
A pick-three combination from Race 6 through Race 8 offers solid value given the competitive nature of those closing races and potential for multiple contenders to finish in the money.
Straight win wagers on Light the Way in Race 7 and Pantherian in Race 6 offer value given their apparent class advantage in their respective races at reasonable morning line odds.
