Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The Aqueduct winter meet continues on Thursday, January 22, 2026, with eight races scheduled on the main dirt track. Racing begins at 12:40 PM Eastern with a claiming race for older horses and concludes at 4:08 PM with an allowance optional claiming event. The card features races ranging from 6 1/2 furlongs to one-mile-and-eighth distances, with purses ranging from $41,000 to $86,000. Multiple important scratches due to veterinary illness issues affect the card, reducing field sizes in several races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Thursday at Aqueduct calls for partly sunny skies with temperatures ranging from 27°F to 43°F, creating cold but dry racing conditions. The track is expected to be fast given overnight temperatures that will not produce moisture buildup. No precipitation is anticipated for race day, ensuring consistent dirt track conditions. This represents ideal conditions for speed horses and figures that depend on fast track surfaces. The timing proves favorable for several prominent speed-biased runners on today’s card.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Aqueduct’s dirt track has historically demonstrated an anti-inside bias, with posts 1-3 showing impact values around 0.85—meaning horses drawn in the rail positions underperform relative to statistical expectations. Conversely, outside posts 8 and beyond show impact values ranging from 1.4 to 2.0, creating a meaningful advantage for outside runners. On dirt sprints, middle posts 4-6 frequently prove advantageous, accounting for approximately 53% of wins in larger fields. However, this bias diminishes in smaller fields of six horses or fewer. For today’s six-horse and five-horse fields, post position becomes less deterministic than in larger fields, elevating trip and class considerations to paramount importance.
Race 1: Claiming 6.5 Furlongs – Purse $52,000
Post Time
12:40 PM Eastern
Note: I’m A Gambler (IRE) has been scratched due to veterinary illness, reducing the field to five runners.
Pace Analysis
The race shapes as a moderate-early pace affair with limited early speed beyond Typhoon Fury, who possesses both tactical and stalking capability. Treaty Obligation profiles as a pace-stalker rather than a pace-setter, suggesting he may run in the 2-4 lane throughout. Asleep At Eight is the most likely early leader if pace develops. Celestial Glaze operates best from mid-pack positions where he can time his closer’s run. This setup favors horses that either (1) establish the early lead and wire the field, or (2) sit one-off the pace and rally in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Handicappers identify Celestial Glaze as the pace-setter favorite with a morning line of 2-1. The seven-year-old gelding has demonstrated solid form at Aqueduct, with recent wins showing fast-closer dynamics and consistent capability to navigate varied race dynamics. Celestial Glaze carries 123 pounds and will be ridden by Sahin Civaci, combining an established Aqueduct connection with a proven trainer in Ilkay Kantarmaci.
Treaty Obligation emerges as a consensus secondary choice at 5-2 morning line odds. The six-year-old gelding has accumulated 18 career starts with four wins and demonstrates class credentials with earnings exceeding $373,000. His 22% win percentage and 67% in-the-money rate suggest productive ability against this claiming level. Jose Antonio Gomez, the assigned jockey, maintains solid mid-meet statistics at Aqueduct.
Secondary Choices
Typhoon Fury shows value at morning line odds of 8-1. The five-year-old gelding possesses $252,830 in career earnings and maintains a 50% in-the-money rate across 20 career starts. While his recent form shows third-place finishes at Aqueduct, he draws from post one and may inherit a favorable setup if pace develops correctly. Jockey Jaime Rodriguez currently leads the Aqueduct meet with a 25% win rate, providing meaningful value to the Rodriguez-Charlerie combination.
Longshots
Asleep At Eight at 10-1 presents overlay potential based on form cycles. The four-year-old gelding won two races from his last six starts and ships in from Florida claiming company. His 15% win percentage and 54% in-the-money rate suggest legitimate contention capability, though recent performances show mixed results.
Betting Strategy and Selections
The race structurally favors closer-type runners against limited early pace, elevating secondary and tertiary selections for exacta and trifecta construction. The five-horse field eliminates post-position bias considerations almost entirely. Box Celestial Glaze with Treaty Obligation and Typhoon Fury across all combinations, building out two-deep in exacta plays. Typhoon Fury over Celestial Glaze in exotic combinations presents value at 8-1, particularly if Rodriguez finds positioning room from post one.
Selections
Win: Celestial Glaze
Place: Treaty Obligation
Show: Typhoon Fury
Race 2: Starter Allowance 6 Furlongs – Purse $60,000
Post Time
01:09 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
Sheer Will projects as the speed horse from post three, having demonstrated tactical flexibility in recent starts. Vanilla and Always Practical figure to contest the early pace if they break alertly, but limited data suggest Sheer Will holds the pace advantage. The likely scenario involves Sheer Will establishing control through the first quarter and back turn. Tiz Purple and Casilda appear more suited to stalking roles. This pace setup creates advantage for the rate-setter or a horse positioned one-off that can launch from the far turn.
Key Contenders
Sheer Will emerges as the consensus choice at 1.40 expected value according to handicappers, with a 7-5 morning line. The four-year-old filly is trained by Linda Rice, a specialist with female runners at Aqueduct and a trainer holding multiple meet titles. Rice has demonstrated particular strength with routes and fillies in allowance company. Jose Lezcano rides Sheer Will, maintaining a 28.2% win rate at the winter meet and showing particular affinity for Rice’s stable. Sheer Will’s form shows productive wins in recent outings.
Secondary Choices
Vanilla at 2-1 morning line develops as a legitimate second choice in race development, favored by multiple sources at expected value 1.30. The four-year-old filly trained by Brittany T. Russell will be ridden by Manuel Franco, connecting a top-tier jockey (18% win rate at Aqueduct) with a horse showing acceptable recent form. Franco carries positive statistics as a live jockey in quality allowance spots.
Longshots
Tiz Purple at 2-1 morning line presents intriguing value if Sheer Will falters. The four-year-old filly shows career earnings of $77,050 and maintains a 27% strike rate across 18 lifetime starts. Ruben Silvera, assigned to ride, has recovered momentum following a strong January campaign and maintains career strike rate around 12%.
Betting Strategy and Selections
The race appears straightforward for a single winner, but exacta prospects improve if Sheer Will’s pace compromises late. Box Sheer Will and Vanilla for exacta, with Always Practical as a third wheel for superfecta plays. The two-beat scenario (Sheer Will / Vanilla) represents 60% of winning combinations based on form analysis.
Selections
Win: Sheer Will
Place: Vanilla
Show: Always Practical
Race 3: Claiming 1 1/8 Miles – Purse $43,000
Post Time
01:38 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
Baron of Sealand and Awesome Empire present the most likely pace-setting candidates, though neither dominates early speed dynamics. Landauer and Lou appear more suited to stalking, while Blame It On Daddy develops as a closing type. The race likely flows moderately through early fractions with opportunities for stretch runners to capitalize. One-and-an-eighth-mile distance at Aqueduct shows minimal post-position bias according to historical data, placing trip and pace position above gate assignments. The moderate pace projects as advantageous for horses 2-3 lengths off early pressure.
Key Contenders
Baron of Sealand emerges at 1.80 expected value with a 9-5 morning line, identified as the consensus choice. The five-year-old gelding carries substantial form credentials with wins visible in recent racing and Rudy R. Rodriguez serving as trainer. Rodriguez, having resolved his provisional suspension on Wednesday, returns to action with this runner. Baron of Sealand shows class credentials with $482,320 in career earnings and a 12% win rate across 32 starts. Silvera rides, maintaining acceptable form at Aqueduct.
Secondary Choices
Adventurist at 2.50 expected value and 3-1 morning line develops as the secondary choice. The four-year-old colt trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Sahin Civaci shows recent form in competitive company. Rice’s dominance with claiming-level runners—particularly males she’s conditioned to take significant steps forward—supports Adventurist’s secondary positioning.
Betting Strategy and Selections
The race structurally accommodates various running styles due to the one-and-an-eighth-mile distance. Exacta plays should incorporate Baron of Sealand as a key horse, with Adventurist as a second wheel and Lou/Landauer as third-wheel options. The pace setup suggests sustained value through the early pace leg, permitting exotic boxed combinations.
Selections
Win: Baron of Sealand
Place: Adventurist
Show: Lou
Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming 1 Mile – Purse $79,000
Post Time
02:08 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
Fast and Frisky, assigned to post 2, projects as the speed horse with demonstrated tactical credentials. Munny Grab will challenge early, creating moderate early pace. Lika Rolling Stone, Sweetest Princess, Princess Becca, and Giant At Work appear positioned for various stalking roles. The one-mile distance accommodates a variety of running styles, with particular advantage flowing to horses positioned 2-3 lengths off early pace. This setup represents a balanced pace—neither suicidal nor slow—permitting both front-runners and second-layer runners to compete.
Key Contenders
Fast and Frisky emerges as the clear consensus choice at 1.0 expected value with a 2-1 morning line. The five-year-old mare, trained by Brad H. Cox and ridden by Manuel Franco, represents a live connection within the Cox stable. Franco maintains 18% win rate at Aqueduct while Cox maintains consistent form with multiple runners on today’s card. Fast and Frisky’s record shows three wins across 18 lifetime starts with acceptable finishing consistency.
Secondary Choices
Sweetest Princess at 1.4 expected value and 5-2 morning line develops as the secondary choice trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano. The six-year-old mare carries 121 pounds, gaining an allowance for non-winners of races other than claiming or starter since July 22, 2025. Rice’s dominance with fillies and mares at Aqueduct during winter racing provides meaningful trainer consideration. Lezcano’s 28.2% strike rate at Aqueduct enhances this connection.
Betting Strategy and Selections
Fast and Frisky shapes as a near-single in win betting, but exacta construction should explore Sweetest Princess and Princess Becca as legitimate second-leg alternatives. Trifecta plays might incorporate three-deep combinations with Munny Grab as a potential closer if pace deteriorates.
Selections
Win: Fast and Frisky
Place: Sweetest Princess
Show: Princess Becca
Race 5: Maiden Optional Claiming 1 Mile – Purse $70,000
Post Time
02:38 PM Eastern
Note: Sparkling Mama has been scratched due to veterinary illness, reducing the field to six maidens.
Pace Analysis
With Sparkling Mama scratched, the field loses its most likely early-pace horse. Doppio Espresso, Fatima Blush, and My First Dinah appear as the speed tier, though none demonstrates explosive early-pace credentials. The race likely develops with moderate early fractions, opening pathways for stalking and closing types. One-mile maiden races frequently reward horses positioned 4-6 lengths off the pace, particularly in fields like this lacking dominant early speed.
Key Contenders
The field structure shifts dramatically without Sparkling Mama. Expert sources previously identified her as the 2-1 morning line favorite based on early-season maidens win records. With her absence, consensus shifts toward Fatima Blush at 6-1 morning line, carrying 122 pounds and ridden by Ricardo Santana, Jr., under Chad C. Brown training. Brown maintains strong credentials with developing maidens at eastern tracks.
Secondary Choices
Quality Swag presents secondary positioning at expected value 7-1, with Rodriguez as trainer and Jaime Rodriguez as jockey. The three-year-old filly shows limited racing experience but traces pedigree credentials supporting moderate success potential in maiden company.
Betting Strategy and Selections
The scratching of Sparkling Mama creates uncertainty in this field. Maiden special weight races at Aqueduct frequently produce multiple contention scenarios. Box multiple runners across exacta and trifecta plays, incorporating Fatima Blush with Quality Swag and Doppio Espresso as legitimate second and third-leg alternatives.
Selections
Win: Fatima Blush
Place: Quality Swag
Show: Doppio Espresso
Race 6: Claiming 7 Furlongs – Purse $41,000
Post Time
03:08 PM Eastern
Note: Chocolatechocolate has been scratched due to veterinary illness, reducing the field to seven runners.
Pace Analysis
Vino Frizzante, trained by Linda Rice and recently claimed, projects as the likely early-pace setter. Saucy Six and La Gran Artesana figure to contest the early pace if they break alertly. Aunt Yola, Luckforyou, and Perugia profile as stalkers and closers. The seven-furlong sprint distance creates advantage for the rate-setter or a horse positioned 1-2 lengths off the early pace. With the smaller field resulting from the Chocolatechocolate scratch, post-position bias considerations diminish.
Key Contenders
Vino Frizzante emerges at 1.0 expected value with a 6-5 morning line. The five-year-old mare, recently transitioned to Linda Rice’s care, enters after a productive run under Gregory Sacco at Tampa Bay Downs. Rice specializes in transitioning claimed runners to winning efforts, with career patterns supporting success in claiming routes. Vino Frizzante will be ridden by Jose Lezcano, maintaining 28.2% win rate at Aqueduct.
Secondary Choices
Aunt Yola at 4.8 expected value and 8-1 morning line presents secondary positioning. The five-year-old mare trained by Horacio De Paz shows career earnings of $157,820 and maintains 24% strike rate across 37 lifetime starts. De Paz has conditioned multiple runners on today’s card, showing consistent form in claiming company.
Betting Strategy and Selections
Vino Frizzante appears to offer limited value at 6-5 morning line for a claiming seven-furlong sprint. Exacta plays should explore Aunt Yola and Saucy Six as legitimate second-leg alternatives, permitting construction of exactas yielding 4-1 to 6-1 payouts. The post-position disadvantage for horses in posts 1-3 suggests avoiding La Gran Artesana in win bets despite outside morning line.
Selections
Win: Vino Frizzante
Place: Aunt Yola
Show: Saucy Six
Race 7: Starter Optional Claiming 6 Furlongs – Purse $60,000
Post Time
03:38 PM Eastern
Note: Sculcos Folly has been scratched due to veterinary illness, reducing the field to six horses.
Pace Analysis
The Toy Cannon emerges as the likely early-pace setter from post 6, having demonstrated speed in recent racing under Brad H. Cox training. Essentially Fast and Hong Kong Phooey will contest the early pace from posts 2 and 4 respectively. Liamster, Never Say Uncle, and Capanaparo appear positioned for various stalking roles. The six-furlong sprint distance eliminates the impact of Aqueduct’s typical outside-post bias, as sufficient backstretch distance permits repositioning. This race likely develops with moderate early pressure, opening opportunity for horses positioned 2-3 lengths off the pace.
Key Contenders
The Toy Cannon emerges as the consensus choice at expected value 3-2 with a 5-2 morning line according to expert sources. The three-year-old colt trained by Brad H. Cox and ridden by Manuel Franco represents a powerful connection within elite claiming company. Franco maintains 18% win rate at Aqueduct, while Cox shows consistent 23% win rate nationally with recent form suggesting peak training timing. The Toy Cannon demonstrates recent win in competitive claiming company with sustained form capability.
Secondary Choices
Hong Kong Phooey at 7-2 morning line and expected value 1.6 develops as secondary choice. The three-year-old colt shows 50% career win rate across limited starts and carries demonstrated speed credentials. Ruben Silvera rides, maintaining 8% career strike rate at Aqueduct with recent momentum building throughout January.
Betting Strategy and Selections
The Toy Cannon offers minimal value at 5-2 morning line, but his 50% recent form pattern suggests strong contention likelihood. Exacta plays should explore Hong Kong Phooey and Liamster as legitimate second-leg alternatives, permitting construction of exactas at 5-1 to 7-1 payouts. Trifecta construction might incorporate Capanaparo, trained by Richard Dutrow Jr., as the potential long-price closer if early pace pressurizes leading contenders.
Selections
Win: The Toy Cannon
Place: Hong Kong Phooey
Show: Liamster
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming 6.5 Furlongs – Purse $86,000
Post Time
04:08 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
With the Angels projects as the likely early-pace setter from post 5, having demonstrated tactical speed in recent New York-bred stakes victories. Khali Magic, All Class, My Magic Wand, and others will contest or sit off the early pace depending on break dynamics. The six-and-a-half-furlong distance permits varied running styles, with advantage flowing to horses positioned 1-3 lengths off early pressure. This race likely develops with sustained early pace, creating opportunity for stretch runners to capitalize late.
Key Contenders
With the Angels emerges as the consensus choice at 1-1 morning line, representing odds suggesting near certainty according to expert expectations. The four-year-old filly, trained by Linda Rice and previously undefeated as a two-year-old (4-for-4), carries elite credentials within her class. Rice has demonstrated particular mastery with this filly’s development, conditioning her through four consecutive victories. With the Angels earned $100,000+ in career victory purses while showing versatility between pace-setting and closing tactics as circumstances demand. Flavien Prat, assigned to ride, maintains 35.4% win rate at Aqueduct—the leading rider statistically.
Secondary Choices
Reliable Lady at 1.4 expected value and 5-2 morning line develops as secondary choice trained by Fernando Abreu and ridden by Reylu Gutierrez. However, Gutierrez maintains only 4.7% win rate at Aqueduct winter meet, presenting significant concern regarding jockey form. The five-year-old mare carries acceptable form credentials but the jockey assignment creates risk.
Betting Strategy and Selections
With the Angels appears to represent near-single status in this race, with 1-1 morning line already reflecting overwhelming betting pressure. Win bets offer minimal value, but exacta plays should explore Reliable Lady and My Magic Wand as legitimate second-leg alternatives. Placing significant wagers on With the Angels represents bet construction focused on exotic combinations rather than straight win bets.
Selections
Win: With the Angels
Place: Reliable Lady
Show: My Magic Wand
Jockey Notes and Insights
Flavien Prat emerges as the leading rider of the Aqueduct winter meet with a 35.4% win rate across 48 starts, significantly outpacing all competitors. Prat carries assignments in races 3 and 8, representing premium placements for top-tier connections. His assignment to With the Angels in race 8 essentially locks in that selection as the likely chalk choice.
Jaime Rodriguez maintains solid form with a 25% win rate at Aqueduct, leading among mainstream riders. Rodriguez carries five assignments on today’s card (races 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6), suggesting his agent successfully positioned him for a productive day. His connections with multiple trainers provide diverse contention opportunities throughout the card.
Manuel Franco, maintaining 18% win rate at Aqueduct, carries four assignments on today’s card (races 1, 2, 6, and 7). Franco’s pairing with Brad H. Cox in race 7 represents a particularly strong combination historically, with prior patterns showing consistent success within Cox-trained claiming stock. Franco’s assignment to Fast and Frisky in race 4 enhances that horse’s contention likelihood despite moderate morning line odds.
Jose Lezcano maintains an exceptional 28.2% win rate at Aqueduct across 39 winter meet starts. Lezcano carries premium assignments in races 2 and 6, suggesting pattern recognition by multiple connections. His recent performances show momentum building into late January, positioning him as a live rider for multiple contenders.
Ruben Silvera, maintaining only 8% win rate at Aqueduct, carries four assignments on today’s card. This sparse success rate warrants concern about horses ridden by Silvera despite connections appearing logical. His assignment to With the Angels in previous entries appears to have been superseded by Flavien Prat.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice demonstrates dominance across the winter meet at Aqueduct, with multiple trainer titles in recent years and career patterns establishing her expertise with claiming runners, fillies, and allowance-level horses. Rice carries eight separate runners across today’s card (races 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8), representing approximately 50% of total field representation. Her dominance suggests systematic preparation and consistent conditioning excellence. Specific assignments in races 2, 4, 6, and 8 represent her strongest holdings on the card.
Brad H. Cox maintains active training presence with runners in races 4 and 7. Cox’s specialization with claiming sprints and his productive relationship with Manuel Franco suggests strong contention in race 7 with The Toy Cannon. Cox’s assignment to Fast and Frisky in race 4 represents a secondary consideration despite the trainer’s national prominence.
Richard Dutrow Jr., recently returning from provisional suspension issues resolved Wednesday, enters with renewed operational capability following January 15th lifting of restrictions. Dutrow maintains two runners on today’s card in races 7 and likely other entries. His recent suspension history warrants cautious consideration of his runners pending clear evidence of renewed training effectiveness.
Rudy R. Rodriguez, having resolved his provisional suspension and returned to training operations Wednesday, carries active presence with multiple runners. Rodriguez demonstrates career pattern of producing unexpected winners within claiming and starter allowance company. His assignment to Baron of Sealand in race 3 and his participation in other race developments warrant positive consideration based on historical patterns despite recent regulatory issues.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Race 1 Value Play: Typhoon Fury represents strong overlay value at 8-1 morning line. The horse’s recent consistent performances at Aqueduct, combined with Jaime Rodriguez’s 25% strike rate, suggest legitimate contention probability higher than 8-1 odds imply. Placing significant Typhoon Fury across exacta and trifecta second-leg combinations yields superior payouts compared to favored Celestial Glaze prices.
Race 2 Value Play: Tiz Purple presents intriguing odds at 2-1 morning line despite limited recent data. The four-year-old filly’s career pattern suggests sufficient ability to compete within starter allowance company. Exacta construction incorporating Tiz Purple as second leg with Sheer Will as first leg yields 4-1 approximate payout, offering reasonable value.
Race 3 Value Play: Lou at 4-1 morning line represents considerable overlay potential. The four-year-old’s class credentials show recent wins in competitive claiming company, with recent performances suggesting readiness to move into this spot. Incorporating Lou into exotic combinations as third-wheel option capitalizes on minimal betting action directed toward this runner.
Race 4 Value Play: Princess Becca at 3-1 morning line develops as value consideration within the race structure. The five-year-old mare trained by Michelle Giangiulio shows acceptable form credentials and demonstrates sufficient class to compete within this allowance spot. Fast and Frisky’s 2-1 morning line offers minimal value, suggesting exacta construction with secondary runners provides superior betting value.
Race 5 Value Play: Doppio Espresso at 6-1 morning line presents intriguing maiden value. The filly’s pedigree credentials (daughter of acceptable sire lines) and recent work patterns suggest readiness for competitive maiden special weight racing. Incorporating Doppio Espresso into exacta second-leg combinations with Fatima Blush creates value payouts.
Race 6 Value Play: Saucy Six at 10-1 morning line represents legitimate overlay potential within claiming seven furlongs. The five-year-old mare’s recent form shows productive performances at Aqueduct with sufficient speed credentials to compete within early pace development. Exacta combinations incorporating Saucy Six as second-leg alternative to favored Vino Frizzante yield 5-1 approximate payouts.
Race 7 Value Play: Hong Kong Phooey at 7-2 morning line develops as reasonable secondary choice. The three-year-old colt’s 50% career win percentage and recent demonstrates the necessary form to overtake favored The Toy Cannon in competitive claiming conditions. Trifecta plays incorporating Hong Kong Phooey as potential upset winner capitalize on moderate odds.
Race 8 Value Play: My Magic Wand at 4-1 morning line offers exotic value despite With the Angels’ overwhelming superiority. The five-year-old mare’s recent win pattern shows sufficient form to compete within stretch-call scenarios if early pace pressurizes With the Angels. Trifecta combinations incorporating My Magic Wand as second-leg alternative create compelling odds.
