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The Saturday card at Aqueduct features 10 races, highlighted by competitive maiden special weights for juveniles and several claiming contests that offer deep betting value. The card includes a mix of New York-bred and open company events, with a focus on dirt racing.
Weather and Track Conditions
- Forecast: Sunny skies with highs in the lower 40s.
- Wind: Strong winds from the Northwest at 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph.
- Track Condition: Fast.
- Turf: (If applicable) Likely Firm/Good, though cold temperatures may firm up the ground.
Track Bias Note:
Strong northwest winds at Aqueduct can sometimes create a bias. A headwind in the stretch might make it difficult for front-runners to hold on, potentially favoring stalkers or closers who can draft behind the speed. However, the main track has generally played fair this meet.
Race-by-Race Analysis & Picks
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (6 Furlongs, Dirt)
Post Time: 11:40 AM ET
Pace Analysis:
In a field of juvenile fillies, expect For the Ladies and She’s All Clover to show early initiative. Without a confirmed speedball, the pace should be moderate, giving the advantage to those who can break sharply.
Key Contenders:
- #1 For the Ladies (6-5): The clear horse to beat. Trainer Thomas Morley places Ricardo Santana Jr. on this filly, who has shown enough potential in training to warrant favoritism. Drawn the rail, she simply needs a clean break to control this race.
- #5 Rage Bait (2-1): A strong second choice. Trained by Mike Maker with Manny Franco aboard, this filly draws the outside post, which is often advantageous for young horses. She should be able to stalk the pace comfortably.
Secondary Choices:
- #2 She’s All Clover (9-2): Todd Pletcher sends out this filly with Kendrick Carmouche. Pletcher’s first-time starters or lightly raced 2-year-olds are always dangerous, and she could improve significantly here.
Betting Strategy:
The race goes through the #1. A straight Exacta 1-5 is the logical play.
- Win: #1
- Exacta: 1 / 5
Selections:
- For the Ladies
- Rage Bait
- She’s All Clover
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile, Dirt)
Post Time: 12:10 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
Baffle looks like the controlling speed or at least a presser in this mile contest. Stretching out to a mile often tests the stamina of these young fillies, so a horse that can relax on the lead will have the edge.
Key Contenders:
- #1 Baffle (3-1): Todd Pletcher and Kendrick Carmouche team up on this filly who is the consensus top pick. She stretches out to a mile, a distance Pletcher excels at with juveniles. Her pedigree suggests she will handle the distance well.
- #4 Permutation (7-2): Chad Brown’s entry gets Ricardo Santana Jr. Brown is deadly with juveniles going long on dirt, and this filly should be running late.
Secondary Choices:
- #5 Romala (4-1): Another Chad Brown trainee, ridden by Manny Franco. Splits the “Brown bump” with #4, making her a viable threat if the other falters.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #1
- Trifecta Box: 1, 4, 5
Selections:
- Baffle
- Permutation
- Romala
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/8 Miles, Dirt)
Post Time: 12:40 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
Higher Force projects as the “Fast Leader” here. She should clear the field or sit just off a mild pace. Fast and Frisky will likely press from a mid-pack position.
Key Contenders:
- #7 Higher Force (5-2): The one to catch. She has excellent speed figures for this level and draws the outside, allowing jockey Ruben Silvera to see how the break unfolds before committing.
- #3 Fast and Frisky (3-1): Consistent runner for Jorge Abreu. She won her last start at this track and distance range and pairs well with Manny Franco.
Secondary Choices:
- #1 Lika Rolling Stone (5-1): A grinder who will be running at the end. The rail draw might force her to take back early, but she hits the board often.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #7
- Exacta Box: 3, 7
Selections:
- Higher Force
- Fast and Frisky
- Lika Rolling Stone
Race 4: Starter Allowance (6 Furlongs, Dirt)
Post Time: 1:10 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
Hue and Kadena both possess early foot. Elegant may also try to get involved early. A contested pace could set it up for a stalker like Hey Cookie.
Key Contenders:
- #3 Kadena (2-1): Linda Rice is a master at these claiming/starter levels. This filly has the speed and class to win here and gets Jose Lezcano, Rice’s go-to rider.
- #1 Hue (3-1): Draws the rail and has the speed to protect it. If she breaks well, she could wire this field.
Secondary Choices:
- #6 Hey Cookie (4-1): The value play. She sits a nice trip and could pick up the pieces if the top two duel too hard.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #3
- Exacta: 3 / 1, 6
Selections:
- Kadena
- Hue
- Hey Cookie
Race 5: Claiming (7 Furlongs, Dirt)
Post Time: 1:40 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
Looms Boldly and Stewie are the primary speed horses. Looms Boldly from the rail will likely have to send hard, potentially setting race up for Stewie on the outside or a stalker like Shipsational.
Key Contenders:
- #7 Stewie (2-1): labeled as a “Fast Leader” by handicappers. Draws the perfect outside attack post. He can sit off the #1 if needed or take the lead if they hesitate.
- #1 Looms Boldly (7-2): A consistent runner who hits the board 81% of the time. The rail is tricky at 7 furlongs if you don’t break, but he has the speed to handle it.
Secondary Choices:
- #3 Shipsational (3-1): A “Mid Pack Stalker” who will benefit if the top two burn each other out.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #7
- Trifecta: 7 / 1, 3 / 1, 3, 4
Selections:
- Stewie
- Looms Boldly
- Shipsational
Race 6: Claiming (1 Mile, Dirt)
Post Time: 2:10 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
Mr. Papagiorgio is a “Fast Leader” who will likely try to steal this on the front end. Noted and Ridgewood Runner will be in close pursuit.
Key Contenders:
- #6 Noted (5-2): Drops into a claiming spot where he fits perfectly. His class should shine through here.
- #5 Mr. Papagiorgio (3-1): Richard Dutrow Jr.’s runner has high speed figures and should be on the lead. If he gets loose, he could be gone.
Secondary Choices:
- #3 Ridgewood Runner (7-2): A “Fastest Closer” type who will be running late. If the pace is hot, he wins.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #6
- Exacta Box: 5, 6
Selections:
- Noted
- Mr. Papagiorgio
- Ridgewood Runner
Race 7: Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)
Post Time: 2:39 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
A lower-level maiden claimer often features erratic pace. How About It and Freedom Maker have shown some ability to get position.
Key Contenders:
- #4 How About It (5-2): Consistent enough for this level. Looks like the safest play in a shaky field.
- #3 Freedom Maker (3-1): Has flashed speed and should be involved early.
Longshot:
- #1 Lough Currane (8-1): Draws the rail. While others are preferred on form, the rail trip could result in a share of the purse.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #4
- Exacta: 4 / 3, 2
Selections:
- How About It
- Freedom Maker
- Career Risk
Race 8: Claiming (1 Mile, Dirt)
Post Time: 3:09 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
The Boondocker is a “Fastest Leader” and should clear this field early. Union Express will likely be coming from deep.
Key Contenders:
- #6 The Boondocker (5-2): The clear speed of the race. If he clears comfortably, he will be very hard to catch.
- ** Last Man Standing (3-1): Linda Rice trainee who also has speed (“Fast Leads”). Could challenge the #6 early, making this a potential match race.
Secondary Choices:
- #7 Nantz (4-1): A consistent stalker who will be ready to pounce if the leaders falter.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #6
- Exacta Box: 6, 8
Selections:
- The Boondocker
- Last Man Standing
- Nantz
Race 9: Starter Allowance (1 Mile, Dirt)
Post Time: 3:39 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
House United is the “Fastest Leader” here. Golden Symphony and Porosity will press.
Key Contenders:
- #3 Porosity (3-1): Linda Rice entry. Has been running well and fits this condition perfectly.
- #9 Golden Symphony (4-1): A “Mid Pack Leads” type who draws outside, avoiding traffic.
Value Play:
- #7 House United (6-1): If he gets loose on the lead at this price, he is a threat to steal it.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #3
- Trifecta: 3 / 7, 9 / 7, 9, 1
Selections:
- Porosity
- Golden Symphony
- House United
Race 10: Allowance (1 Mile, Dirt)
Post Time: 4:09 PM ET
Pace Analysis:
A competitive nightcap. Mozambique and Undisputed are the class of the field.
Key Contenders:
- #4 Mozambique (3-1): A DRF “Best Bet” type. Has the form and figures to win this.
- #3 Undisputed (6-1): Listed on the “Hotlist” for rallying wide last time. With a better trip, he wins.
Secondary Choices:
- #2 Mo for the King (4-1): Consistent runner who is always in the mix.
Betting Strategy:
- Win: #4
- Double: R9 #3 / R10 #4
Selections:
- Mozambique
- Undisputed
- Mo for the King
Jockey and Trainer Notes
- Linda Rice (Trainer): Continues to be a dominant force at Aqueduct, especially with horses off the claim (25% win rate) and in claiming/starter allowance races. Watch #3 Kadena (R4), #8 Last Man Standing (R8), and #3 Porosity (R9).
- Chad Brown (Trainer): Always dangerous with juveniles and turf-to-dirt movers. His entries in Race 2 (#4 Permutation, #5 Romala) are must-use in multi-race wagers.
- Manuel Franco (Jockey): Has been riding in top form. His mount on #5 Rage Bait (R1) and #7 Stewie (R5) suggests they are live.
- Kendrick Carmouche (Jockey): Known for aggressive rides, he is well-suited for speed horses like #1 Baffle (R2) and **#5 MrPapagiorgio (R6).
Best Wagering Strategies
- Best Bet: Race 5, #7 Stewie. Sets up perfectly on the outside of the other speed.
- Value Play: Race 10, #3 Undisputed. 6-1 morning line is generous for a horse that had a troubled trip last time and is improving.
- Early Pick 3: Race 1 (#1) / Race 2 (#1, 4) / Race 3 (#7).
- Late Double: Race 9 (#3) / Race 10 (#4).
