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Today’s card at Aqueduct features nine races primarily focusing on New York-bred quality. The critical variable for the day is the Good (Sealed) track condition following morning precipitation. Historical data for sealed tracks at the “Big A” indicates a significant bias toward early speed and the inside rail. Closers often struggle to make up ground when the surface is tightened to repel water, as the kickback can be discouraging and the surface tends to play “highway-fast.”
Our deep-dive analysis highlights a specific Spot Play in Race 5, identifying a Rick Dutrow trainee making a significant class move, and a Key Vulnerability in Race 1, where a likely favorite shows deteriorating form metrics.
Track Bias & Pace Scenario
- Surface Management: The “Sealed” designation suggests the maintenance crew has compacted the track to allow water to run off. This traditionally creates a surface that carries speed.
- Bias Alert: Upgrade horses with “E” (Early) or “E/P” (Early/Presser) run styles. Downgrade deep closers (one-run types).
- Rail Profile: On sealed days at Aqueduct, the rail is often the “golden path.” Watch the first two races; if the winner rides the rail, increase wager sizing on inside-speed horses for the remainder of the card.
Race-by-Race Deep Analysis
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $30,000 (NY-Bred)
6 1/2 Furlongs | Dirt | 3yo+
The Landscape: A lower-level maiden claimer to start the day. The field is uninspiring, which often leads to chaotic results, but the sealed track simplifies the puzzle: find the speed.
- #1 Liberty Rising (3-1): While drawing the rail is advantageous on a sealed track, his form cycle is concerning. Data indicates he faces his sixth straight start without hitting the board, showing a regression in speed figures. He will likely take money due to the post and connections (Patrick Quick), but he is a vulnerable favorite.
- #7 Ridolfi (5-2): A 4-year-old facing mostly 3-year-olds. This age advantage often translates to physical maturity in these bottom-level claimers. Trainer Kevin Bond places him aggressively here. If he can break clean, he sits in the “garden spot” outside the speed.
- #8 Aetherium (4-1): The Carlos Martin trainee gets Luis Rivera Jr. The outside post is tricky at 6.5 furlongs, but it prevents him from getting trapped behind tiring horses if the rail is clogged.
Projected Value:
- Win: #7 Ridolfi
- Exacta Key Box: 7 / 1, 5, 8
- Fade: #1 Liberty Rising (use defensively in exotics only).
Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming $45,000 (NY-Bred)
7 Furlongs | Dirt | Fillies & Mares 3yo+
The Landscape: This is the class of the early Pick 5. The race goes through the proven winners.
- #1 City Blocks (Top Selection): This 4-year-old filly is the standout class act. She arrives with confirmed form, having won a $95,000 Allowance at Saratoga in August and another win in July. Dropping into a NY-bred Optional Claiming spot at Aqueduct after a successful summer campaign is a massive signal of intent. The rail draw + Ricardo Santana Jr. + sealed track = Primary Key.
- #5 Sweetest Princess: The Linda Rice/Jose Lezcano combination is lethal at Aqueduct (historically 25%+ win rate). She has been consistent and provides the main danger if City Blocks falters.
- #6 Kay Cup: A 3-year-old facing older mares. Jorge Abreu is excellent with fillies, but she gives away physical maturity to the top two.
Projected Value:
- The Play: #1 City Blocks to Win.
- Double: 7 (Race 1) / 1 (Race 2).
Race 3: Claiming $10,000
1 Mile | Dirt | 3yo+
The Landscape: A “beaten” claimer for older horses. These races are often attrition wars.
- #1 Because the Night: He possesses the gate speed required to control this race from the inside. On a sealed track, he is the “speed of the speed.” If he breaks running, he may never be headed.
- #5 Six Kings: A consistent grinder who fits the class level perfectly. He doesn’t have the brilliance of the #1 but is far more reliable.
- **#4 Bold EndeavorThe 9-year-old veteran. While he has lost a step, his back class is superior to this field. If the track is fair, he’s a threat, but the sealed surface might be too quick for his old legs.
Projected Value:
- Win: #1 Because the Night (Wire-to-wire threat).
- Sleeper: #4 Bold Endeavor (for 3rd/4th).
Race 4: Claiming $17,500 (N2L)
1 Mile | Dirt | F&M 3yo+
The Landscape: A “Non-Winners of 2 Life” condition is notoriously difficult, as these horses have a “habit of losing.”
- #3 Calling an Audible: Trainer Edward Barker has this filly in good form. She has the tactical speed to sit just off the pace and pounce.
- #1 Spirit of Esther: The rail horse in a mile race at Aqueduct must be respected. If she is sent hard by Franco, she could steal it, but she often fades in the final furlong.
- #8 That’sthefactjack: The outside post is a hurdle, but the Ruben Silvera/Domenick Schettino combo is capable of popping at a price.
Projected Value:
- Win: #3 Calling an Audible
- Exacta: 3 / 1, 5
Race 5: Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000
6 Furlongs | Dirt | 2yo
The Landscape: The Move of the Day. This race features a fascinating dynamic with a Rick Dutrow trainee.
- **#1 Slay Sadie Slay (Bestet): This 2-year-old was entered in a Maiden Special Weight ($92k purse) at Churchill Downs on Nov 19 but scratched to run here instead. This is a significant “negative” class drop on paper (MSW to MCL), but for a debut runner or lightly raced horse, it signals the trainer wants a guaranteed win. Dutrow is a master of placing horses where they can win immediately. With the rail draw and the class relief, this horse is the day’s most likely winner.
- #5 Fort Griffin: A solid alternative from the Mike Maker barn. Maker’s 2-year-olds improve with racing, and he will be running late.
- #2 Tinseltown: Rob Atras is strong with sprinters. If the #1 is bet down to odds-on, this is the value alternative.
Projected Value:
- Win: #1 Slay Sadie Slay (Maximum wager).
- Trifecta Key: 1 / 2, 5, 9 / 2, 5, 7, 9.
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $30,000 (NY-Bred)
6 1/2 Furlongs | Dirt | 3yo+
The Landscape: Similar to Race 1, but usually slightly weaker fields later in the card.
- #1 Island Charlie: Michelle Nevin is an astute trainer with NY-breds. From the rail, expect aggressive handling.
- #7 Until Last Call: This horse has likely burned money before (implied by the name?), but James Ryerson places him well here.
- #2 Monte Avi: Mark Hennig’s barn has been cold lately, but this horse fits on speed figures.
Projected Value:
- Win: #1 Island Charlie.
Race 7: Claiming $50,000
7 Furlongs | Dirt | 3yo+
The Landscape: A competitive mid-level claiming sprint.
- #1 Shattuck: Joe Sharp ships this one in (or keeps him here). The rail draw at 7F is tricky (can get pinned), but he has the speed to extricate himself.
- #2 Rithm Nic: A horse for the course. Gustavo Rodriguez does excellent work with claimers at Aqueduct.
- #6 Sergeant Capps: Linda Rice/Kendrick Carmouche. This is the “dangerous” horse. 3-year-olds facing older horses late in the year have a weight and development advantage.
Projected Value:
- Win: #6 Sergeant Capps.
- Exacta Box: 1, 2, 6.
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming $45,000
6 1/2 Furlongs | Dirt | 3yo+
The Landscape: The feature race of the day. High-quality NY-breds.
- #1 Man in Finance: A 3-year-old trained by Danny Gargan. He has shown flashes of real talent (1 win already). The name (viral on social media) ensures he will be overbet by the public (“dumb money”), suppressing his odds. However, he has the talent to win. The rail post forces Carmouche to send him.
- #2 Tall Paul: John Terranova brings this 4-year-old who has faced open company. The return to NY-bred restriction is a major positive.
- #5 What’s Up Bro: Ray Handal is a very sharp trainer with sprinters. Franco stays aboard. This horse often sits a “catbird” trip just off the speed.
Projected Value:
- Value Play: #5 What’s Up Bro (Look to beat the favorite #1).
- Exacta: 5 / 1, 2.
Race 9: Claiming $17,500 (N2L)
6 Furlongs | Dirt | 3yo+
The Landscape: The nightcap is a scramble.
- #1 Senor Pickles: Michelle Giangiulio gets a lot out of her small string. The rail is the place to be today.
- #2 Cousin Ed: Jorge Abreu/Jaime Rodriguez. A logical contender dropping to a realistic level.
- #10 Wajda: The Linda Rice “drop and pop” candidate. Drawn wide, which is tough, but Silvera is an aggressive gate rider.
Projected Value:
- Win: #1 Senor Pickles.
Jockey & Trainer Insights
Jockeys to Watch
- Kendrick Carmouche (The “King of the Inner”): Carmouche is known for his aggressive gate riding. On a Sealed Track, he is the most dangerous jockey in the colony. Upgrade all his mounts, specifically Race 8 (#1 Man in Finance) and Race 7 (#6 Sergeant Capps).
- Ricardo Santana Jr.: Riding first call for several top barns today. His mount in Race 2 (#1 City Blocks) is the day’s classiest runner.
Trainers to Watch
- Rick Dutrow (Race 5): The scratch of Slay Sadie Slay from a $92k race to run in a $75k tag race is a classic “Dutrow Move.” He is essentially announcing the horse is ready to win now.
- Linda Rice: As always at Aqueduct, Rice is the dominant force in claiming/allowance races. Her entries in Race 2 and Race 7 must be used in all multi-race wagers.
Wagering Strategy & Ticket Construction
The “Bankroll Builder” (Early Pick 3)
- Race 1: 1, 7
- Race 2: 1 (Single – City Blocks)
- Race 3: 1, 5
- Cost for $1 ticket: $4.00
The “Aggressive” Pick 4 (Races 2-5)
- Race 2: 1 (City Blocks)
- Race 3: 1, 4, 5
- Race 4: 1, 3, 8
- Race 5: 1 (Slay Sadie Slay)
- Cost for $0.50 ticket: $4.50 (Highly efficient ticket utilizing two singles).
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5, #1 Slay Sadie Slay. The scratch-and-ship angle combined with the class drop and rail draw on a speed-favoring track makes this the most likely winner on the card.
Live Longshot
Race 8, #5 What’s Up Bro. Will offer value against the likely overbet favorite Man in Finance.
