Aqueduct – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 28, 2026 card

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Aqueduct Racetrack presents a blockbuster 10-race card on Saturday, February 28, 2026, headlined by the Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes, a premier Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying race awarding points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers. The card also features three additional stakes: the $200,000 Busher Stakes (Race 2), a Kentucky Oaks qualifier for sophomore fillies; the Grade 3, $175,000 Tom Fool Stakes (Race 4) for older sprinters; and the $150,000 Stymie Stakes (Race 8) for older milers. First post is 12:40 p.m. Eastern, with all ten races carded on the dirt main track.

Several notable scratches will reshape the card. In the Gotham, Balboa (PP1) has been scratched by trainer Brittany Russell, Dirty Rich (PP9) was scratched from his original stakes engagement, and Creole Chrome (PP8) was cross-entered at Fair Grounds and may not travel. In Race 3, both Howling Wind (PP7) and Rare Society (PP5) are out due to veterinary illness. Nowucme Nowudont (PP3) has been scratched from Race 1. In the Stymie Stakes, Komorebino Omoide (PP6, JPN) is a stakes scratch, reducing that field. Brigadier General (PP6) exits Race 9 with an injury, and J J's Ranger (PP10) is scratched from Race 5.​

This is the final Gotham Stakes to be run at Aqueduct, adding historical significance to the day. The card offers substantial wagering opportunities across multi-race sequences including Pick 4 and Pick 5 plays.​


Weather and Track Conditions

The weather forecast for Queens calls for mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog early in the day, clearing to partly cloudy by afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-40s with south winds at 5 to 10 mph. No precipitation is expected, a welcome change after the region experienced significant winter weather the prior weekend.

The dirt surface has been impacted by persistent moisture throughout February, with the track listed as muddy or sloppy on several recent racing days. Given overnight temperatures in the low 30s and the moisture already absorbed into the ground, the track could remain on the softer side early before drying through the afternoon. With clear weather and moderate winds, the surface should improve as the card progresses. Handicappers should monitor the listed track condition at first post for any last-minute changes.


Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

The Aqueduct winter meet has exhibited a pronounced and persistent inside/rail bias throughout the 2025-2026 season. At six furlongs on the dirt, 51% of winners have gone wire-to-wire, with early speed the dominant running style and inside posts (1-4) strongly favored. At seven furlongs, 35% of winners went wire-to-wire, and early speed remained the most productive style.​

Recent racing days have continued this trend. February 15 showed the rail as a significant advantage, with forwardly placed runners benefiting and very little late movement from deep in the pack. February 13 produced an extreme inside bias where saving ground was a prerequisite for success. However, with the major winter weather event that passed through the area last weekend, the track profile may have shifted. The NYRA handicapping team noted it will be important to observe how the track plays on Friday's card to determine whether the inside speed bias has persisted or softened.

When the track is wet, jockeys tend to stay off the rail due to kickback concerns. If the surface is sealed and relatively uniform, the inside can still be the preferred path. Given the forecast for dry weather, the bias pattern from earlier in the meet could reassert itself, giving an edge to forwardly placed runners who can secure inside position. Stalkers with tactical speed drawn in the middle posts appear well-positioned on this card.​


Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $75,000

Post Time: 12:40 PM ET

Three-year-old New York-bred colts and geldings contest this six-furlong maiden sprint with a field of seven (Nowucme Nowudont, PP3, has been scratched due to veterinary illness).

Pace Analysis

Bounty Banker (PP5) figures to show early speed based on his two prior efforts and should be among the leaders from the start. Central Spirit (PP1) from the rail and Lord King (PP8) from the outside are the other runners with some speed. Several first-time starters, including Sfumato (PP6) and Bargain Purchase (PP7), make their running styles less certain. The pace should be moderate, with Bounty Banker likely establishing the front early without excessive pressure.​

Key Contenders

Bounty Banker (PP5) is the deserving morning-line favorite at 2-1. He has run speed figures capable of winning at this level in both prior starts. On debut he did not get the easiest trip, and in his second start he closed strongly outside over a rail-biased course despite steadying slightly at the quarter pole. With the experience edge and proven ability, he is the most likely winner. Trainer Paul W. Barrow has one win from 12 starts on the meet at an 8.3% clip, but the horse's form stands on its own.

Sfumato (PP6) is a well-bred first-time starter for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who has been working well in the mornings. Mott has four wins from 25 starts on the meet (16%). By a quality sire, Sfumato brings intrigue to a spot where first-time starters from top barns often outrun their odds at the Big A.

Secondary Choices

Bargain Purchase (PP7) debuts for the Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables combination, which is 10 for 32 (31%, $2.82 ROI) with three-year-old first-time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over five years. Brown is hitting at 27.8% on the winter meet. The barn's consistent production with debuters makes this one dangerous despite the outside draw.

Illmatic (PP2) for trainer Miguel Clement draws post 2, which fits the inside bias. Clement has two wins from 15 starts (13.3%) on the meet. The inside draw gives this runner a positional edge if the speed bias holds.​

Longshots

Judge Boushay (PP4) is the second Chad Brown entrant at 8-1 on the morning line. He has the benefit of Eric Cancel aboard and a middle draw. Central Spirit (PP1) draws the rail at 12-1, and while outclassed on paper, the persistent inside bias could carry him further than expected if he shows any early speed.

Selections

Win: Bounty Banker (PP5)
Place: Sfumato (PP6)
Show: Bargain Purchase (PP7)


Race 2 — Busher Stakes, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $200,000

Post Time: 1:13 PM ET

The Busher Stakes for three-year-old fillies is a Road to the Kentucky Oaks points race, with all five finishers earning points (the reduced field means points are scaled to 37.5-18.75-11.25-7.5-3.75). This one-turn mile on the outer course sets up as a key early test for sophomore fillies.​

Pace Analysis

This race has contested early speed. Current Yield (PP2) wired her maiden at Tampa Bay Downs sprinting 6.5 furlongs and will likely push forward. Interstatelovesong (PP5), drawing the outside, has shown speed sprinting and will be trying the mile for the first time. Paradise (PP3) won her maiden in gate-to-wire fashion going the one-turn mile at Gulfstream. With two or three horses pushing the pace early, the fractions should be honest, potentially setting up a closer like Nycon (PP1) to rally from the rail.​

Key Contenders

Paradise (PP3) is the most likely winner according to the consensus of handicappers. She beat a decent rival that came back to win when breaking her maiden last time at Gulfstream, and she showed gameness from off the pace in her debut at a shorter distance. She has the tactical speed to be forward and the versatility to rate if necessary. Jockey Manuel Franco rides, and trainer Brad Cox ships in with 10 wins from 39 starts (25.6%) on the meet.

Interstatelovesong (PP5) ran a strong second in the Ruthless Stakes here on February 6, beaten a neck. She has shown speed in all her starts and will be stretching out from sprinting. Trainer Thomas Morley and jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. team up. Some handicappers are concerned that her Ruthless figure was inflated by a rail bias that day, but her tactical speed and class make her a serious player if she handles the added distance.​​

Secondary Choices

Nycon (PP1) draws the coveted rail position and returns to her preferred one-turn mile distance after a neck second in the Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream. Her maiden win going a mile at Churchill Downs showed she handles this trip, and jockey Jaime Torres makes the trip to ride. With the inside bias at Aqueduct, the rail draw gives Nycon an ideal stalking position to reel in tiring speed. Her career-best 72 Beyer is a concern against this group, but the race setup and post favor her strongly.

Current Yield (PP2) debuted with an impressive wire-to-wire win at Tampa Bay Downs for Chad Brown. She was a $400,000 purchase and showed resolve taking on challenges throughout her maiden victory. She must prove she can handle the step up in class and the added distance, but the Brown barn's ability to develop young fillies cannot be dismissed.​​

Longshots

Blazing Brat (PP4) for trainer Whit Beckman is the longest shot in the field at 10-1 on the morning line. She has never gone a mile and appears overmatched, but Beckman also trains Nycon and may have entered her to help ensure the race filled. Her dirt career-best 64 Beyer puts her well behind the class of this field.

Selections

Win: Paradise (PP3)
Place: Nycon (PP1)
Show: Interstatelovesong (PP5)


Race 3 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $77,000

Post Time: 1:43 PM ET

This allowance for New York-bred fillies and mares four and up has been significantly impacted by scratches. Both Howling Wind (PP7) and Rare Society (PP5), two of the top contenders, are out due to veterinary illness. The remaining field of six is wide open.

Pace Analysis

With the scratches, the pace dynamic changes considerably. Queens Over Threes (PP1) and Sunshine Lily (PP4) both have some early speed and could vie for the front. I'm Kidding (PP3) can be forwardly placed as well. The pace should be moderate to honest, with no true burner signed on to set blazing fractions.

Key Contenders

Redwineandwhiskey (PP6) was against the track bias on February 5 and deserves a pass for that lackluster effort. Two starts back, she stumbled badly at the start yet still ran on well despite spending time inside over a dead rail surface. She may be slightly better on a wet track, but she has every right to run better here. Jaime Rodriguez rides, and Rodriguez is hitting at 17.1% on the meet with 27 wins.

Queens Over Threes (PP1) draws the rail with the inside bias and figures to be forwardly placed early. At a 4-1 morning line, she offers value if the speed bias holds. Veteran rider Tamay B. Alpander takes the mount for trainer Greg Sacco.

Secondary Choices

I'm Kidding (PP3) has some form at this level and draws a favorable inside post. At 4.5-1 on the morning line, she can be competitive with a clean trip from Ruben Silvera, who has seven wins on the meet.​

Sunshine Lily (PP4) makes her allowance debut for trainer Gregory DiPrima with Eric Cancel aboard. The 8-1 morning line price suggests she is a step below the principals, but she can show early speed from a middle draw.

Longshots

Carol T (PP8) was mentioned as a contender before the scratches altered the complexion. She chased Howling Wind in a claiming race last time and has some races that make her competitive at this level. She carries just 114 lbs. with Dalila A. Rivera aboard. At 12-1, she offers overlay potential in a wide-open race.​

Selections

Win: Redwineandwhiskey (PP6)
Place: Queens Over Threes (PP1)
Show: I'm Kidding (PP3)


Race 4 — Tom Fool Stakes (G3), 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $175,000

Post Time: 2:13 PM ET

The Grade 3 Tom Fool features a compact field of five older sprinters going six furlongs on the dirt.

Pace Analysis

One Nine Hundred (PP2) is a front-running speedster who earned a career-best 104 Beyer with splits of 22.66 and 45.56 in his last start over this course and distance. He is likely to make the lead early from post 2. Breslau (PP1) from the rail has the ability to either contest or stalk the pace. Full Moon Madness (PP5) does not always break sharply and tends to press or stalk. The pace scenario favors One Nine Hundred establishing clear command, with the question being whether anyone can run him down.

Key Contenders

One Nine Hundred (PP2) is the commanding favorite at 4-5 on the morning line. The four-year-old Dialed In colt earned that 104 Beyer last out when winning an optional claimer by 4.5 lengths over this course and distance on January 9. Trainer Tom Morley said the colt has matured physically and is ready for graded stakes company. His natural speed from the inside post should allow Jose Lezcano to establish the lead early and control the pace. Lezcano is second in the jockey standings with 30 wins and a sharp 25.6% strike rate.

The primary concern is that his worst career effort came in the one race he did not use Lasix, and he is again coming off Lasix per HISA regulations for this stakes. At a very short price, this is a meaningful risk factor.​

Secondary Choices

Full Moon Madness (PP5) is the defending champion in this race, having won the Tom Fool last year by 1.25 lengths. Trained by Michelle Nevin, who has a remarkable 50% win rate (5 for 10) on the meet, this six-year-old Into Mischief gelding has posted four of five career wins at the Big A. His recent form has been inconsistent, with an off-the-board effort in the Carter and a neck loss at Laurel last out where Point Dume herded him outward. The outside draw (PP5) could actually benefit him, allowing him to avoid early traffic and launch a rally. He carries topweight at 123 lbs. Reylu Gutierrez rides.

Acoustic Ave (PP4) returns on short rest from a 1.75-length second to National Identity in the Say Florida Sandy going seven furlongs last Saturday. Trainer Linda Rice, the dominant conditioner on the meet with 43 wins (26.9%), believes the cutback to six furlongs will help. He has run an impressive 11-4-5-1 since being claimed last March, including a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Elite Power in December. Manuel Franco rides.

Longshots

Breslau (PP1) is a seven-year-old ten-time winner making his first stakes start of any kind at 10-1 on the morning line. He wired a starter-optional claimer over course and distance last out, and nine of his ten wins have come at six furlongs. He has the ability to stalk as well as lead, and from the rail with the inside bias, he could outrun his odds. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides.​

Bold Journey (PP3) was fifth in this race last year for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. He has not been at his best recently and is 9-2 on the morning line.

Selections

Win: One Nine Hundred (PP2)
Place: Full Moon Madness (PP5)
Show: Acoustic Ave (PP4)


Race 5 — Claiming $10,000, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $28,000

Post Time: 2:43 PM ET

An 11-horse field (10 after the scratch of J J's Ranger, PP10) contests this bottom-level claiming mile. The class levels are modest, but the large field creates wagering opportunities.

Pace Analysis

Several horses will look to establish early position including Mister Holden (PP5), Skylander (PP9), and Centavo (PP11). The pace should be honest with this many runners entered, which could benefit a stalker or closer who can pick up the pieces in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Hours In A Day (PP4) is the 2-1 morning-line favorite dropping down in class as he makes his third start off a layoff for Linda Rice. Rice is dominant on the meet, and the class relief here is significant. Jose Lezcano rides his second mount of the day for the leading barn. The dropdown angle for Rice runners is one of the most profitable in New York racing.

Skylander (PP9) is the 3-1 second choice and the main rival to Hours in a Day. He got a good trip last time, spending significant time on the gold rail before angling out in the stretch. He would need to improve slightly off the claim for new trainer Wayne Potts, who has four wins from 20 starts (20%) on the meet.

Secondary Choices

Knox (PP2) for trainer Chad Summers draws inside at the 4.5-1 morning line. Summers has six wins from 23 starts (26.1%) on the meet. Emily A. Ellingwood rides, and the inside draw fits the bias pattern.​

Mister Holden (PP5) for trainer Michael Miceli is 5-1 on the line with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. Miceli has three wins and five seconds from 15 starts (20%). This one should be forwardly placed and could benefit from an honest pace setup.​

Longshots

Pot Of Gold (PP6) at 20-1 and Midnight Trouble (PP7) at 20-1 offer longshot value for exotic play, but neither inspires great confidence at this level.

Selections

Win: Hours In A Day (PP4)
Place: Skylander (PP9)
Show: Knox (PP2)


Race 6 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $75,000

Post Time: 3:14 PM ET

A large field of 13 three-year-old New York-bred fillies makes for a wide-open maiden sprint. This is a challenging race with multiple first-time starters and limited past-performance data on many runners.

Pace Analysis

With such a large field and several debuters, the pace scenario is difficult to project. Punchoutandgohome (PP2) and Sugartown Sweetie (PP12) have shown some early speed in prior starts. Several first-time starters could show unexpected speed. The wide field with 13 runners means the pace could be chaotic, favoring horses who can find clean trips and avoid trouble.

Key Contenders

Daylight Dreamer (PP4) is the 3.5-1 morning-line favorite as a first-time starter for trainer Jeremiah C. Englehart with Manuel Franco riding. She has been working forwardly in the mornings and was a $150,000 yearling. By Leinster, she has more of a turf profile on pedigree, but her price and workouts suggest she may be fast enough to compete on dirt at first asking. Englehart has three wins from 19 starts (15.8%) on the meet.

Atira (PP5) is the first-time starter who interests the handicapping community most. She is by excellent debut sire Yaupon from the female family of graded stakes winning sprinter Joking. Trainer Tom Morley can win on debut, and Jaime Rodriguez (17.1% on the meet) takes the mount.

Secondary Choices

Kaz Farm Girl (PP10) has the best prior form among the experienced runners. She ran well in a tough race when third behind subsequent stakes winner Galinda two starts back. Last time, she had little chance chasing outside against the rail bias and probably did not want to go a mile anyway. Cutting back to six furlongs and getting a fair surface could see her rebound at a price (10-1 ML).​

Punchoutandgohome (PP2) at 6-1 draws inside for trainer Bruce N. Levine with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. The inside draw is favorable in the bias pattern, and she has shown some early speed in prior starts.

Longshots

Find Your Path (PP13) at 8-1 draws the far outside for trainer Anthony W. Dutrow, who won with his only prior starter on the meet. Barbour County (PP6) at 8-1 draws a middle post with Christopher Elliott for trainer Joe Sharp (2 wins, 15.4% on the meet).​

Selections

Win: Atira (PP5)
Place: Kaz Farm Girl (PP10)
Show: Daylight Dreamer (PP4)


Race 7 — Allowance, 6.5 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $77,000

Post Time: 3:44 PM ET

Nine New York-bred four-year-olds and up go 6.5 furlongs in this allowance condition. Note that Calling Card (PP5) was scratched per morning changes, reshaping the dynamics of this race.​

Pace Analysis

With Calling Card scratched, the pace setup changes. Fireballin (PP2) has the fastest early speed profile in the field and could try to take them wire to wire. Liberty Rising (PP1) from the rail can be forwardly placed. Sir Kartrite (PP9) and Mozambique (PP8) are stalker types who will try to track the speed and close. The pace should be moderate, with Fireballin the likely leader.​

Key Contenders

Sir Kartrite (PP9) is appealing despite his outside draw. He did some running despite racing three-wide against the rail bias last time. Trained by Jeremiah C. Englehart, who is running at a strong 33% this meet, with Jaime Rodriguez aboard (16% meet strike rate). He has run a couple of races that would make him tough against this field, and he boasts a 55% in-the-money career rate. With blinkers, he could show more tactical speed.

Mozambique (PP8) has a fast-stalking style and a solid 44% in-the-money rate from nine career starts. Trained by Rudy R. Rodriguez (5 wins, 15.2% on the meet) with Ruben Silvera riding. He should stalk Fireballin and be in position to strike turning for home.

Secondary Choices

Fireballin (PP2) has the fastest early speed and draws inside for trainer Mike Maker (22% on the meet) with Manuel Franco aboard. However, he completely shut down after just three furlongs in his return last time and has been unable to finish off his races since his debut. At 4-1, the risk may outweigh the reward.

Liberty Rising (PP1) draws the rail at 6-1 and can be forwardly placed for trainer Patrick J. Quick. The inside draw is favorable in the bias pattern, though he has been inconsistent.

Longshots

Sanzio (PP4) is the live longshot at 15-1 on the morning line. He has to prove he can be effective going this short after routing, but he held his own at this level two starts back against comparable quality and posted a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. His first start since a trainer switch back to Jimmy Ferraro was encouraging, and he had no chance given his wide-against-the-bias trip last time. He should be a very generous price turning back.​

Selections

Win: Sir Kartrite (PP9)
Place: Mozambique (PP8)
Show: Sanzio (PP4)


Race 8 — Stymie Stakes, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $150,000

Post Time: 4:15 PM ET

The Stymie Stakes for four-year-olds and up at one mile has been reduced to five runners with the scratching of Komorebino Omoide (PP6, JPN). This shapes up as a showdown between the two favorites.

Pace Analysis

Phileas Fogg (PP3) is likely to lead this field early after having blinkers removed. Ridgewood Runner (PP1) from the rail also has speed and could press or contest the front. Counterspy (PP5) may also be forwardly placed. The pace figures to be honest with multiple speed types, which could set up Yo Daddy (PP4) and Full Screen (PP2) to rally from stalking positions.​

Key Contenders

Phileas Fogg (PP3) is the class of the field, and the removal of blinkers is a positive move. He tailed off a bit at the end of 2025, but was unwisely rated when blinkers were applied in the Cigar Mile last time, which did not suit his run-to-the-lead style. He has gotten a needed freshening since then. He is likely to lead this field early, and should be tough to catch if he returns in top form. Jaime Rodriguez rides at 123 lbs. (no weight allowance) as the 9-5 morning-line choice. However, all of his classier form comes going longer than this one-turn mile, making him vulnerable.

Full Screen (PP2) has been in razor sharp form recently with two straight wins, but both came at nine furlongs around two turns, and he benefited from perfect trips each time. Trainer Brad Cox (25.6% on the meet) sends out this seven-year-old with Manuel Franco aboard. Cutting back to the one-turn mile is the question mark, but his current form is undeniable. He is the 8-5 co-favorite on the morning line.

Secondary Choices

Yo Daddy (PP4) profiles as the ideal trip horse, bringing tactical versatility and proven Aqueduct mile form. Trained by Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano riding, he can battle up front or run a winning race from several lengths back. His form through the fall and winter last year at the one-turn mile was productive. At 5-1 on the morning line, he offers the best value play in this race, particularly with Rice's dominant meet statistics.

Ridgewood Runner (PP1) draws the rail at 12-1 for trainer Michelle Nevin (50% win rate on the meet) with Christopher Elliott riding. He has speed and will try to establish early position along the inside. If the rail bias holds, this longshot could hang around for a minor share.​

Longshots

Counterspy (PP5) at 15-1 is largely an afterthought in this field, but he does draw outside and could benefit from any pace meltdown.

Selections

Win: Phileas Fogg (PP3)
Place: Full Screen (PP2)
Show: Yo Daddy (PP4)


Race 9 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $86,000

Post Time: 4:45 PM ET

A full field of 12 (11 after Brigadier General, PP6, was scratched with an injury) contests this one-mile allowance optional claimer, one of the most competitive non-stakes races on the card.

Pace Analysis

There is limited early speed signed on in this race, which could set up an unexpected scenario. V Cruizer (PP9) showed he can lead throughout when winning at this distance two back. Donegal Surges (PP4) can be forwardly placed. The lack of pace could benefit a frontrunner who steals the race on the lead, or alternatively, a stalker who can pounce when the plodding pace quickens late.​

Key Contenders

Donegal Surges (PP4) is the 5-2 morning-line favorite for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who has four wins from 27 starts (14.8%) on the meet. He had a valid excuse when racing wide against the rail bias last time out. He will be tough to deny if he runs back to his effort at this level from December 27 when he crossed the wire first only to be disqualified. Manuel Franco rides with the advantageous inside draw.

V Cruizer (PP9) is the top pick from the NYRA handicapping team. He finished up the track last time, never getting involved after being rated in the early stages and steadied multiple times. He led throughout when winning at this distance two starts back, and he should be able to work out a similar trip with very little other speed signed on. He has to run faster, but Linda Rice keeps placing him confidently in these tough spots. Jose Lezcano rides at 123 lbs.​

Secondary Choices

Dreamlike (PP3) was wide against the bias last time yet still outclosed Donegal Surges for third. Trained by Linda Rice and drawn in post 3, Dreamlike is a little tougher to trust turning back in distance, and the lack of pace in this race could be more detrimental to his chances as a closer. Sahin Civaci rides at a 4-1 morning line.​

Castle Chaos (PP5) is a grizzled veteran with some back class at 6-1. He has been competitive in similar spots and draws a middle post with Jaime Torres aboard.

Longshots

Top Gun Rocket (PP1) merits a second glance at 15-1. He draws the rail and had little chance chasing outside in a rail-dominated race on February 4. He finished well behind Donegal Surges when they met December 27, but he did not have the smoothest trip that day and is capable of better.​

Bramito (PP8) at 8-1 for trainer Steven Schauer has some form that puts him in the exotic mix.

Selections

Win: Donegal Surges (PP4)
Place: V Cruizer (PP9)
Show: Dreamlike (PP3)


Race 10 — Gotham Stakes (G3), 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $300,000

Post Time: 5:18 PM ET

The Grade 3 Gotham Stakes is the crown jewel of the card, a one-turn mile Kentucky Derby prep awarding 50 points to the winner. The field is reduced from nine to as few as six or seven with the scratches of Balboa (PP1), Dirty Rich (PP9), and the possible defection of Creole Chrome (PP8). Despite the smaller field, this race features the most accomplished runners on the card and offers the most compelling handicapping challenge.

Pace Analysis

There is plenty of speed in this field. Crown The Buckeye (PP3) figures to be the most aggressive early and could dictate the pace from the inside. Exhibition Only (PP7) also has early speed. Iron Honor (PP6) has loads of speed but showed on debut that he does not need to be in front to win. The TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a fast pace, which should benefit stalkers and late runners like Hammond (PP2) and Right To Party (PP5). The contested early fractions could set up a dynamic stretch run.

Key Contenders

Iron Honor (PP6) is the 6-5 morning-line favorite off a dazzling debut victory here last December that produced a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest number in this field by a significant margin. Trained by five-time Eclipse Award-winning conditioner Chad Brown and ridden by meet-leading jockey Manuel Franco (35 wins, 20.5%), this Nyquist colt stalked a fast early pace and drew off impressively. Both the runner-up (Crossingthechannel) and third-place finisher (Right to Party) came back to win their next starts, franking the form. Pedigree suggests the stretch to a mile will not be a problem, as his dam is by Blame, an outstanding distance influence.

The concerns: he is a second-time starter facing winners for the first time, Brown is just 12 for 67 (18%, $0.85 ROI) with second-time starters facing winners on dirt over five years, the track on December 13 was playing fast and may have inflated the figure, and a recent workout at Payson Park was less than ideal. At a very short price, the risk-reward is questionable, but his raw talent is clearly the best in the field.

Right To Party (PP5) carries the top late-pace rating in the TimeformUS Pace Projector and is the selection from NYRA's chief handicapper. Trained by Kenny McPeek, this Constitution colt debuted in the same race as Iron Honor, getting bumped at the break and fighting a speed bias to finish third. He then won his maiden at a mile, rallying off a contested pace despite covering extra ground and showing greenness by hanging on his left lead late. He is still a work in progress who can take another step forward given the favorable pace setup. Christopher Elliott rides at 8-1 on the morning line, offering significant value.

Secondary Choices

Hammond (PP2) for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. ships north from Florida as an intriguing contender at 5-1. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved in every start (50, 64, 71, 84), and he ran a strong third in the Swale Stakes behind talented Solitude Dude despite a slow break and wide trip. His sire Charlatan is seeing his three-year-olds win at a 24% clip early in 2026. Jaime Rodriguez rides. The distance is the question, as he has never gone beyond seven furlongs and his dam was a confirmed sprinter.

Crown The Buckeye (PP3) for Mike Maker (21.4% on the meet) cuts back to the one-turn mile after fading badly in the Lecomte at Fair Grounds going 1 1/16 miles. The cutback should help, as he showed good form sprinting and going the one-turn mile in Ohio, including a respectable third in the Gun Runner Stakes with strong early fractions. Ricardo Santana Jr. opted to ride this one over Balboa, which is a telling jockey choice. He has early speed and could be dangerous on or near the lead if the pace is not suicidal.

Longshots

Fourth And One (PP4) gets a pass for a disastrous Withers trip when he was pulled three wide on a day with a severe rail bias. Prior form does not scream open-stakes quality, but trainer Jeremiah Englehart's 33% strike rate on the meet gives him a live chance at 20-1. Jose Lezcano rides.

Exhibition Only (PP7) won a conditioned claimer last out on a favorable Aqueduct surface. At 15-1, he is a minor exotic player from the outside. Ruben Silvera rides for Rudy Rodriguez.​

Selections

Win: Iron Honor (PP6)
Place: Right To Party (PP5)
Show: Hammond (PP2)


Jockey Notes and Insights

Manuel Franco leads the Aqueduct winter meet with 35 wins from 171 starts, a 20.5% win rate, and an impressive 62.6% in-the-money figure. He has six mounts on today's card, including marquee rides aboard Acoustic Ave (PP4, Race 4), Paradise (PP3, Race 2), Full Screen (PP2, Race 8), Donegal Surges (PP4, Race 9), and Iron Honor (PP6, Race 10). Franco is the rider to follow on any competitive card at the Big A, and his decision to ride Iron Honor over Balboa in the Gotham speaks volumes about his confidence in the Brown colt.​

Jose Lezcano ranks second in meet wins with 30 from 117 starts and a sharp 25.6% win rate, the best among jockeys with significant volume. He rides One Nine Hundred (PP2, Race 4), Hours In A Day (PP4, Race 5), and V Cruizer (PP9, Race 9). His consistency on Linda Rice trainees is particularly noteworthy, and backing him on her runners is a sound meet-long strategy.​

Jaime Rodriguez sits third in the colony with 27 wins from 158 starts (17.1%). He has quality mounts in Current Yield (PP2, Race 2), Redwineandwhiskey (PP6, Race 3), Sir Kartrite (PP9, Race 7), and Hammond (PP2, Race 10). His volume and consistency make him a dangerous pick in multi-race wagers.​

Ricardo Santana Jr. has a lower win rate (12.1%) than his national reputation suggests, but his 45.5% in-the-money figure keeps him relevant. His decision to ride Crown the Buckeye over Balboa in the Gotham is a significant indicator. He also has Interstatelovesong in the Busher (Race 2) and Breslau in the Tom Fool (Race 4).​

Christopher Elliott rides Right to Party in the Gotham and brings a 10.5% win rate from 95 starts on the meet. He is a value play when he rides for quality barns, as his mounts often go off at generous odds.​


Trainer Notes and Insights

Linda Rice dominates the 2026 Aqueduct winter meet with 43 wins from 160 starts, a 26.9% win rate that is far ahead of any other conditioner. She won five races on a single card on January 22 and followed that with another remarkable five-win day on February 26. She runs in multiple races today including Acoustic Ave in the Tom Fool (Race 4), Hours in a Day in Race 5, Dreamlike and V Cruizer in Race 9, and Yo Daddy in the Stymie (Race 8). Backing Rice runners on the drop-down or claiming play is one of the most profitable angles at the current meet.

Chad C. Brown has five wins from 18 starts (27.8%) on the Aqueduct winter meet. He saddles Bargain Purchase and Judge Boushay in Race 1, Current Yield in the Busher, and Iron Honor in the Gotham. His statistics with three-year-old first-time starters on dirt at Aqueduct (31% over five years) are particularly relevant for Race 1. His runners stretching out to a mile for the first time have offered a flat-bet profit over the past three years.

Brad H. Cox is second in the meet trainer standings with 10 wins from 39 starts (25.6%). He sends out Paradise in the Busher and Full Screen in the Stymie. Cox is an elite national conditioner whose shippers from the South tend to run well in New York.​

Mike Maker has three wins from 14 starts (21.4%) on the meet and has been firing strongly this winter at Aqueduct. He saddles Crown the Buckeye in the Gotham and has influence in Race 7 as well.

Thomas Morley trains One Nine Hundred in the Tom Fool and Interstatelovesong in the Busher. He has two wins from 16 starts (12.5%) on the meet but is hitting with live runners in high-profile spots.

Michelle Nevin has a remarkable 50% win rate (5 for 10) on the meet and trains Full Moon Madness in the Tom Fool and Ridgewood Runner in the Stymie.​

Todd Pletcher runs Donegal Surges in Race 9 with four wins from 27 starts (14.8%) on the meet.​


Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The day's wagering sequences offer significant potential for structured exotic play. The Pick 4 beginning in Race 4 (Tom Fool through Race 7) and the late Pick 4/Pick 5 sequences that encompass the Stymie, Race 9, and the Gotham are the premium opportunities.

In the early Pick 4 (Races 4-7), One Nine Hundred (PP2, Race 4) can be singled or used as an A horse despite the short price, given his dominant speed figures. Race 5 can be narrowed to Hours In A Day (PP4) and Skylander (PP9). Race 6 is the spread race in the sequence, requiring multiple horses given the large maiden field. Race 7 (with the Calling Card scratch) should use Sir Kartrite, Mozambique, and Sanzio as the primary contenders.

The late sequence encompassing Races 8-10 offers the highest-value potential. In the Stymie (Race 8), Phileas Fogg (PP3) and Full Screen (PP2) will take heavy action, but Yo Daddy (PP4) at 5-1 is the overlay. The Stymie can be played with all three, keeping costs manageable with the small field.​

Race 9 is the deepest and most contentious race on the card, requiring significant spreading. Donegal Surges (PP4), V Cruizer (PP9), Dreamlike (PP3), Castle Chaos (PP5), and Top Gun Rocket (PP1) should all be included in exotic tickets.​

In the Gotham (Race 10), the key decision is whether to single Iron Honor (PP6) or beat him. The value strategy is to beat the favorite. Right To Party (PP5) at 8-1 offers the best value based on his late-pace figures and improving form. Hammond (PP2) at 5-1 and Crown The Buckeye (PP3) at 4-1 round out a three-horse spread that covers the most likely upset scenarios.

The morning-line overlay of the day is Yo Daddy (PP4) at 5-1 in the Stymie (Race 8). With tactical versatility, proven Big A form, and the Linda Rice training angle, he offers a strong price in a race where the two favorites each have legitimate questions about the one-turn mile distance.​

For win bettors, the best plays on the card are Paradise (PP3, Race 2) as the most likely winner in a stakes, and One Nine Hundred (PP2, Race 4) as the most talented horse in his field despite the short price. In the Gotham, Right To Party (PP5) offers the best risk-reward profile among the contenders at his 8-1 morning-line price.

For exacta and trifecta players, Race 4 (Tom Fool) offers a strong structure: key One Nine Hundred on top with Full Moon Madness, Acoustic Ave, and Breslau underneath for second and third. The Busher (Race 2) offers value in exactas with Nycon (PP1) over Paradise (PP3) at a likely higher payout, given the rail draw and pace setup that favors a stalker on the inside.

Here's the comprehensive race analysis for today's Gotham Stakes Day card at Aqueduct. The report covers all 10 races with detailed pace analysis, key contenders, secondary choices, longshots, and selections for each race, along with:

  • Weather and track condition updates (mostly cloudy, mid-40s, dry)
  • Track bias analysis (persistent inside/rail bias throughout the winter meet)
  • Jockey and trainer insights with current meet statistics
  • Wagering strategies for exotic sequences including Pick 4 and late multi-race plays
  • Value plays highlighted, with Yo Daddy (5-1, Race 8) flagged as the top overlay

Key stakes highlights include Iron Honor as the horse to beat in the Gotham at 6-5, Paradise as the top pick in the Busher, One Nine Hundred dominating the Tom Fool speed figures with a 104 Beyer, and a Stymie that shapes up as a showdown between Phileas Fogg and Full Screen. Be sure to check final scratches before post time, as several scratches from the scratch watch could further reshape fields.

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