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Racing returns to Belmont at the Big A today with a competitive nine-race card highlighted by the $150,000 Carle Place Stakes for three-year-olds on the outer turf course. Despite earlier weather concerns, the card appears to be proceeding as scheduled with favorable track conditions expected.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current conditions show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 65°F and east winds at 17 mph. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with a 50% chance of scattered showers throughout the day, but temperatures remaining in the mid-60s. Track conditions are expected to be fast for the main dirt surface and firm for turf racing, with rails positioned at 12 feet for races 1 and 4, and 18 feet for races 2 and 5.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf)
Key Contenders
Just One More emerges as the top selection at 3-1 odds. The four-year-old filly trained by Horacio De Paz brings solid form and the services of Ricardo Santana Jr., who is among the leading riders at the current meet with strong statistics.
Addagirl Addie represents solid value at 6-1. The four-year-old filly for trainer Gustavo Rodriguez has been competitive in similar company and could offer an upset opportunity with regular rider Eric Cancel.
Secondary Choices
Princess Summer at 4-1 provides another viable option. Trained by Michael Maker, who has been successful at the current meet, she brings Dylan Davis in the irons, a jockey who has shown strong form with 20 wins from 75 starts this meet.
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming event on the outer turf should develop into a moderate pace scenario with several fillies likely to press early. The 1 1/16-mile distance allows for tactical positioning.
Wagering Angles
The top three selections offer solid exacta and trifecta opportunities, with Just One More providing the anchor in multiple wager combinations.
Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming (1 Mile Turf)
Key Contenders
Hedge the Risk stands out at 8-1 odds as the top selection. The four-year-old gelding trained by Joe Sharp brings tactical speed and should benefit from the one-mile distance on turf.
Right to Win (IRE) represents the class of the field at 7-2. Trained by Chad Brown, who ranks among the leading trainers at the meet, this Irish-bred has shown consistent form and draws Manuel Franco, the meet’s third-leading jockey.
Secondary Choices
Baron of Sealand at 12-1 provides longshot value. The four-year-old has shown flashes of ability and could benefit from the cutback in distance.
Pace Analysis
The starter optional claiming structure should produce a competitive pace with several horses capable of pressing the early leader. The one-mile turf distance favors horses with tactical speed.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming (1 Mile Dirt)
Key Contenders
Private Flight enters as the favorite at 5-2. Trained by Mark Hennig, this three-year-old gelding has shown steady improvement and should benefit from the dirt surface.
Sergeant Capps offers value at 12-1. The three-year-old colt brings early speed and could wire the field if establishing an uncontested lead.
Longshots
Ark Royal represents the live longshot at 20-1. Trained by Barclay Tagg, this three-year-old has shown promise in limited opportunities.
Pace Analysis
The maiden claiming structure on dirt should produce an honest pace with several horses showing early speed. The one-mile distance allows for late-running types to close ground.
Race 4 – Carle Place Stakes (6 Furlongs Outer Turf)
The $150,000 Carle Place Stakes features a competitive field of 10 three-year-olds racing six furlongs on the outer turf course at Belmont at the Big A. This sprint stakes race represents one of the day’s featured events, drawing quality horses from established connections across the region.
Top Contenders Analysis
Spiced Up (Post 10) – Even Money Favorite
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: William Mott
Weight: 122 lbs
Morning Line: 2-1
Recent Form: Spiced Up enters off a breakthrough Grade 3 victory in the Mahony Stakes at Saratoga on August 10, 2025, where he displayed a devastating closing kick under Junior Alvarado. In that race, he overcame a second-to-last early position to win impressively, demonstrating his ability to finish strongly in stakes company.
Key Angles: The William Mott trainee brings proven Grade 3 form to this assignment, having made his stakes debut a winning one in the Mahony. The combination of Mott’s training expertise and Alvarado’s tactical riding provides significant confidence. His closing style should suit the six-furlong distance if he can get close enough to the leaders.
Speed Figures: His recent performances show consistent improvement, with the Mahony victory representing his career-best effort.
No Evidence (Post 8) – Co-Favorite
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Miguel Clement
Weight: 118 lbs
Morning Line: 2-1 to 3-1
Recent Form: No Evidence brings solid credentials to this assignment with consistent performances in quality company. The three-year-old colt has shown versatility and tactical speed that should serve him well in this competitive field.
Key Angles: Manuel Franco’s presence in the irons adds significant value, as the leading rider at the current meet brings a 22.4% win rate. The weight allowance of 118 pounds provides a tactical advantage over several key rivals.
Out On Bail (Post 5) – Solid Value
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Michael Maker
Weight: 122 lbs
Morning Line: 7-2 to 9-2
Recent Form: This Michael Maker-trained colt brings tactical speed and proven ability in competitive company. His recent performances suggest he’s ready for a stakes breakthrough.
Key Angles: Maker’s training expertise with claiming and allowance horses provides confidence, while Joel Rosario’s tactical riding should position the horse favorably in the early stages. His ability to press the pace or sit just off the leaders makes him versatile.
Secondary Contenders
Cairo Caper (Post 9)
Jockey: Jaime Rodriguez
Trainer: Phil Schoenthal
Weight: 122 lbs
Morning Line: 7-1 to 8-1
Analysis: This gelding brings graded stakes experience to the field and represents solid each-way value. His tactical speed and proven ability make him a legitimate contender at attractive odds.
Forged Steel (Post 2)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Weight: 120 lbs
Morning Line: 10-1
Analysis: The presence of Javier Castellano, a proven stakes rider, adds credibility to this longshot candidate. Joseph’s training has shown improvement patterns that could manifest here.
Longshot Considerations
Cyclonite (Post 7)
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Trainer: Mark Casse
Weight: 120 lbs
Morning Line: 14-1 to 15-1
Analysis: Mark Casse’s training provides immediate credibility at longshot odds. This gelding could offer significant value if able to improve off recent efforts.
Landing Craft (Post 4)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Trainer: Amelia Green
Weight: 118 lbs (allowance)
Morning Line: 12-1
Analysis: The weight allowance and Santana’s presence make this an interesting longshot play. Green’s training has shown occasional flashes of brilliance.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong turf sprint should develop into a moderately contested pace scenario with several horses showing early speed:
Early Leaders: Out On Bail and Cairo Caper likely to press forward early
Stalkers: No Evidence and Forged Steel positioned to track the pace
Closers: Spiced Up represents the primary late threat, similar to his Mahony Stakes victory
The outer turf course configuration at six furlongs typically favors horses with tactical speed who can position themselves within striking distance of the leaders. The rail positioning at 12 feet should provide multiple racing lanes for the closers.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: Spiced Up at 2-1 represents solid value given his Grade 3 victory and the Mott/Alvarado combination.
Value Play: Out On Bail at 9-2 offers the best value in the field with legitimate winning chances.
Longshot Special: Cyclonite at 15-1 provides upset potential with Casse’s training expertise.
Exacta Strategy:
- Key Spiced Up over No Evidence, Out On Bail, Cairo Caper
- Box the top four for broader coverage
Trifecta Angles:
- Use Spiced Up and No Evidence on top, spread underneath with Out On Bail, Cairo Caper, Forged Steel
Final Selection
Win: Spiced Up – His Grade 3 victory in the Mahony Stakes demonstrates he belongs at this level, and the Mott/Alvarado combination provides significant confidence for the feature stakes race.
Place/Show: Out On Bail – Offers the best value at morning line odds with legitimate winning chances.
Longshot: Cyclonite – Mark Casse’s training and attractive odds make this an interesting upset possibility.
The Carle Place Stakes shapes up as a competitive affair with Spiced Up’s proven stakes form making him the logical favorite, while several horses offer legitimate upset potential at attractive odds.
Race 5 – Claiming (1 1/16 Miles Turf)
Key Contenders
Real Savvy leads the way at 7-2. This three-year-old colt trained by Miguel Clement has shown improvement on the turf course.
Prove provides solid value at 9-2. Trained by Amelia Green, this three-year-old brings tactical speed to the longer distance.
Value Play
Ready Set Twirl at 15-1 offers longshot potential. This three-year-old has shown flashes of ability and could benefit from the class drop.
Race 6 – Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt)
Top Selection
Chocolatechocolate enters as the favorite at 5-2. Trained by Linda Rice, who leads the trainer standings at the current meet, this four-year-old filly brings consistent form.
Timia provides value at 8-1. This three-year-old filly has shown improvement and could benefit from the distance.
Auroralinna rounds out the top trio at 6-1.
Race 7 – Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders
Dark Vector emerges as the top choice at 4-1. This five-year-old horse brings tactical speed to the sprint distance.
Smilensaycheese provides solid value at 5-2. Trained by Linda Rice, this three-year-old colt has shown steady improvement.
Dialbolico completes the top selections at 9-2.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming (7 Furlongs Dirt)
The eighth race at Belmont at the Big A features a competitive six-horse field of fillies and mares in a $92,000 Allowance Optional Claiming event at seven furlongs on the dirt track. The race conditions target horses that have never won $20,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state-bred allowance, or have never won four races, or have not won $45,000 since June 12, 2025, with an optional claiming price of $100,000.
Top Contender Analysis
Nic’s Style (Post 5) – Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: William Mott
Weight: 123 lbs
Age: 5-year-old mare
Recent Form: Nic’s Style enters this race in absolutely brilliant form, having won four consecutive races spanning from November 2024 through March 2025. Her recent victories include wins at Gulfstream Park on March 8 (6f 110y), Tampa Bay Downs on February 8 (6f), Tampa Bay Downs on December 14, 2024 (7f), and most significantly, a victory at Belmont at the Big A on November 3, 2024, at exactly today’s seven-furlong distance.
Key Angles: The William Mott and Junior Alvarado combination represents the pinnacle of trainer-jockey partnerships in New York racing. Mott’s Hall of Fame training expertise combined with Alvarado’s tactical brilliance provides significant confidence. Her only recent blemish was a second-place finish on September 29, 2024, making her current winning streak even more impressive.
Distance Analysis: The seven-furlong distance perfectly suits her running style, as evidenced by her impressive victory at this exact trip at this track in November 2024.
Strong Secondary Contenders
All Class (Post 2) – Live Upset Candidate
Jockey: Ruben Silvera
Trainer: Linda Rice
Weight: 123 lbs
Age: 5-year-old mare
Recent Form: All Class brings impressive credentials after a dominant 5¾-length victory in a $75,000 optional claiming event at Saratoga on July 23, 2025. Since being claimed by Linda Rice for $62,500 in October at Keeneland, she has compiled an outstanding record of two wins, two seconds and a third in seven starts.
Key Angles: Linda Rice leads the trainer standings at the current meet and has shown exceptional skill developing claimed horses. All Class has earned $246,610 in career earnings and shows a strong record of five wins, four seconds and a third in 13 races. Her Florida breeding and proven ability at this level make her a legitimate threat.
Tipple (Post 4) – Consistent Performer
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Trainer: Linda Rice
Weight: 123 lbs
Age: 4-year-old filly
Recent Form: Tipple has shown excellent form in 2025 with victories at Aqueduct on January 31 (7f) and February 23 (1 mile), both under Linda Rice’s training. She also captured a victory at Colonial Downs on August 1, 2025, demonstrating versatility across different tracks.
Key Angles: The Rice-Lezcano combination has been highly successful with this filly, and her proven ability at the seven-furlong distance at Aqueduct provides confidence. Her tactical speed and improving form make her a dangerous contender.
Secondary Contenders
The Big Calhouna (Post 1) – Recent Winner
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr.
Weight: 123 lbs
Age: 4-year-old filly
Recent Form: The Big Calhouna enters off a victory at Belmont at the Big A on September 21, 2025, with Manuel Franco in the irons. She brings five career wins to the field.
Key Angles: Franco’s presence adds significant value as the leading rider at the current meet. Dutrow’s training provides tactical experience, and her recent victory at this track gives her home court advantage.
Stonewall Star (Post 6) – Stakes Winner
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Trainer: Horacio De Paz
Weight: 123 lbs
Age: 5-year-old mare
Recent Form: Stonewall Star brings stakes-winning credentials, having captured the $100,000 Bay Ridge Stakes at Aqueduct in December 2024 by 2¼ lengths. However, she has struggled with gate issues throughout her career.
Key Angles: When she breaks cleanly, she has shown significant ability, as evidenced by her stakes victory. Dylan Davis knows her well and has been successful with her. Her stakes form provides class relief at this level.
Complexity Jane (Post 3) – Developing Talent
Jockey: Jaime Rodriguez
Trainer: Brittany Russell
Weight: 120 lbs (3 lb allowance)
Age: 3-year-old filly
Recent Form: Complexity Jane scored an impressive debut victory at Laurel Park in February 2025, overcoming traffic trouble to win by 3¼ lengths. She followed up with a stakes victory in the Weber City Miss at Laurel in April.
Key Angles: The three-pound weight allowance provides a tactical advantage. Her closing style and improving form suggest continued development, though she may be facing her stiffest test to date.
Pace Analysis
The seven-furlong distance should develop into a moderate pace scenario:
Early Speed: The Big Calhouna and All Class likely to show early foot
Stalkers: Tipple and Stonewall Star positioned to track the pace
Closers: Nic’s Style and Complexity Jane represent late threats
The dirt track configuration at seven furlongs typically favors horses with tactical speed who can position themselves within striking distance through the early stages.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: Nic’s Style represents exceptional value despite likely favoritism, given her four-race winning streak and proven ability at this distance and track.
Value Play: All Class offers significant upset potential with her recent Saratoga dominance and Linda Rice’s training expertise.
Longshot Special: Stonewall Star at longer odds provides stakes form and upset potential if she breaks cleanly.
Exacta Strategy:
- Key Nic’s Style over All Class, Tipple, The Big Calhouna
- Box the top four for broader coverage
Trifecta Angles:
- Use Nic’s Style and All Class on top, spread underneath with Tipple, The Big Calhouna, Stonewall Star
Final Selections
Win: Nic’s Style – Her four-race winning streak, including a victory at this exact distance and track, combined with the Mott/Alvarado partnership, makes her the standout choice despite likely short odds.
Place/Show: All Class – Linda Rice’s training expertise with claimed horses and her dominant Saratoga victory provide excellent value for the exotic wagers.
Longshot: Stonewall Star – Her stakes-winning ability and proven partnership with Dylan Davis offer upset potential at attractive odds.
This allowance optional claiming event shapes up as a competitive affair where class and current form should prevail, with Nic’s Style’s recent brilliance making her the logical choice in a field full of legitimate contenders.
Race 9 – Claiming (1 Mile Dirt)
Upset Special
Knox represents the day’s upset special at 8-1. This five-year-old gelding has shown improvement and could benefit from the class level.
Flat On enters as the favorite at 2-1. This five-year-old gelding brings consistent form to the claiming ranks.
Awesome Empire provides another option at 9-2.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Leading Riders
Manuel Franco leads the standings with strong statistics, recording 19 wins from 85 starts for a 22.4% win rate and $1,269,358 in earnings. Franco has multiple mounts throughout the card and provides consistent value.
Dylan Davis ranks second with 20 wins from 75 starts, showing a 26.7% win rate. His aggressive riding style suits the competitive nature of today’s races.
Kendrick Carmouche demonstrates the highest win percentage at 28.8% with 21 wins from 73 starts. His tactical riding provides strong value in route races.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice leads the trainer standings with 34 wins from 140 starts. Her horses consistently show improvement and represent solid betting value.
Chad Brown maintains his elite status with 28 wins from 117 starts. His turf horses particularly excel and warrant attention in grass races.
Michael Maker brings 19 wins from 108 starts. His claiming horses often show significant improvement and provide wagering value.
Best Wagering Strategies
Daily Double Opportunities
The Race 4/5 daily double combining Spiced Up with Real Savvy provides solid value potential at reasonable odds.
Pick 3 Sequences
A Pick 3 covering Races 7-8-9 using Dark Vector, All Class, and Knox offers upset potential with substantial payoff opportunities.
Value Plays
- Spiced Up in Race 4 represents the day’s strongest win bet
- Knox in Race 9 provides the best upset opportunity
- Hedge the Risk in Race 2 offers solid value at 8-1 odds
Multi-Race Wagers
The late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) provides excellent value opportunities by keying Chocolatechocolate in Race 6 and spreading in the remaining legs.
