Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
Weather and Track Conditions
Partly sunny and breezy conditions with a high of 61°F are expected throughout the afternoon, with current track conditions listed as fast for dirt and good for turf. The favorable weather should provide excellent racing conditions with no surface concerns for today’s mixed dirt and turf program.
Race 1 – Claiming $50,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Secured Lender emerges as the clear top choice at morning line odds of 9-5, with expert handicappers rating him as the expected winner. The Michael Maker trainee with Flavien Prat aboard brings solid recent form to this claiming level.
Turn and Count represents the primary threat as the second choice, showing consistent form in similar company. Keep On Coming adds depth to the pace scenario from the outside while Shoot the Nickel drops to the never-won-two level for the first time, potentially offering value at longer odds.
The pace appears moderate with Secured Lender likely to be forwardly placed from the rail. Wagering angles: Win bet on Secured Lender, exacta box with Turn and Count.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles Turf
This competitive maiden event on the turf features strong Chad Brown representation with Up for an Oscar and Atomic Age both entered. Up for an Oscar at 2-1 morning line odds draws significant expert support as a key contender from the powerful Brown stable.
Radauti from Miguel Clement’s barn receives top algorithmic ratings despite longer odds. The turf surface favors horses with breeding for the grass, making pedigree analysis crucial here.
Disclaimer and Wicked Improbable round out the primary contenders in this wide-open maiden event. The rail position at 9 feet should play fairly for those drawn inside. Wagering angles: Win bet on Up for an Oscar, place coverage on Radauti.
Race 3 – Claiming $20,000, 1 Mile Dirt
Beira stands out as the top selection in this claiming race for fillies and mares, receiving strong expert backing at 3-1 morning line odds. The Richard Dutrow Jr. trainee with Kendrick Carmouche aboard brings tactical speed and proven form at this level.
Pistol Liz Ablazen merits serious consideration despite a poor last effort, as that race came over a wet track at an unsuitable distance. The class relief and return to sprinting could spark improvement for this multiple winner.
Coquito and My First Love add depth to the field, with the pace likely honest given several horses showing early speed tendencies. Wagering angles: Win bet on Beira, exacta key over field.
Race 4 – Claiming $17,500, 1 Mile Dirt
Sight to See receives top expert ratings in this competitive claiming event, despite drawing the challenging outside post. The Dutrow-trained filly has shown consistency at this level and merits serious consideration.
She’s Cool and Enigmatic provide the primary competition, with both fillies capable of challenging for the win. Best Impression represents another contender with tactical speed from a favorable post position.
The wide-open nature of this claiming race suggests multiple horses have legitimate winning chances. Wagering angles: Small win bet on Sight to See, trifecta box with top four choices.
Race 5 – Maiden Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Outer Turf
The 5th race features 10 two-year-old colts and geldings in a 6-furlong turf sprint with a claiming option of $75,000. The outer turf rail is positioned at 36 feet, providing fair racing conditions for the entire field. This maiden optional claiming event carries a $70,000 purse and is restricted to horses sold for $60,000 or less in their most recent sale.
Top Contenders
Two Ducks enters as the algorithmic favorite despite higher morning line odds, suggesting potential value. The Carlos Martin trainee with Javier Castellano aboard showed promise in his debut at Saratoga, finishing fourth as the 5/2 favorite in a maiden special weight event. The son of Mendelssohn out of Street Show brings solid breeding for turf racing and the tactical speed to be positioned early from the rail post.
Skip Forward (JPN) represents Todd Pletcher’s exceptional two-year-old crop that has dominated this season with multiple stakes victories. The Japanese-bred colt benefits from Pletcher’s remarkable 33% win rate with juveniles during the current campaign. Kendrick Carmouche’s local knowledge and Pletcher’s turf expertise make this combination formidable despite limited public form lines.
Escape Hall brings race experience from George Weaver’s barn with Flavien Prat taking the mount. The colt has shown consistent effort in previous maiden starts and benefits from the proven Weaver-Prat partnership. His previous turf attempts suggest comfort on the grass surface, making him a legitimate threat in this competitive field.
Secondary Choices
Fort Griffin represents another Michael Maker entry with Joel Rosario aboard. The Maker stable has shown excellent form during the current Belmont at the Big A meet, and Rosario’s tactical riding provides an additional edge. The outside post position allows flexibility in trip development for this maiden.
Helmet of Will completes the Maker stable’s dual entry with Junior Alvarado handling riding duties. The trainer’s success rate with two-year-olds on turf makes both his entries worthy of consideration, particularly with the claiming option providing class relief opportunities.
Diliello from Thomas Morley’s barn with Ricardo Santana Jr. brings tactical speed and proven connections. The colt showed competitive effort in a New York-bred maiden event at Saratoga, suggesting ability to compete in this open company.
Longshot Considerations
Grumblyrumhogan offers potential value at longer odds for trainer Edward Barker with Dylan Davis riding. The unique name suggests connections have confidence, and first-time turf runners can often surprise in maiden events.
B Raging On represents another Rudy Rodriguez trainee alongside Raging Sea Captain, providing stable depth in this competitive field. Both horses benefit from the trainer’s knowledge of the Belmont at the Big A surface conditions.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears moderate with Two Ducks likely to show early speed from the rail, while Diliello and B Raging On could also be involved in the early fractions. Skip Forward and Escape Hall profile as tactical runners who can adapt to pace flow, making them dangerous if the early pace becomes contentious.
The 6-furlong distance on turf favors horses with tactical speed, as closing room can become limited in shorter turf sprints. The outer rail position at 36 feet should provide fair racing conditions without significantly favoring inside or outside posts.
Key Angles
The Todd Pletcher angle with Skip Forward cannot be overlooked given his remarkable success with two-year-olds this season. Pletcher’s juveniles have consistently performed above expectations, particularly in turf events where his preparation methods excel.
The Michael Maker double entry suggests confidence in both Fort Griffin and Helmet of Will, as the trainer rarely enters multiple horses without genuine winning chances. The claiming option provides additional flexibility for connections to assess market value.
First-time turf runners deserve respect in maiden events, as breeding for grass racing often doesn’t manifest until horses experience the surface. Several entrants possess pedigrees suggesting turf aptitude that hasn’t been tested in competition.
Wagering Strategy
Win Selection: Skip Forward represents the strongest win bet based on Pletcher’s exceptional juvenile record and proven ability to have horses ready for their connections’ preferred targets.
Value Play: Two Ducks offers excellent value if morning line odds hold, as his debut effort showed promise and the rail post provides tactical advantages in turf sprints.
Exacta Strategy: Box Skip Forward and Two Ducks as the top two choices, adding Escape Hall as a third key underneath both selections.
Trifecta Coverage: Use Skip Forward and Two Ducks on top, with Escape Hall, Fort Griffin, and Diliello filling out the bottom portions of the trifecta for maximum coverage.
The competitive nature of this maiden event suggests modest wagering amounts with broader coverage rather than substantial win bets on single horses. The claiming option adds unpredictability, as connections may prioritize different objectives beyond simply winning the race.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles Turf (NY-Bred Fillies)
The 6th race features 16 two-year-old fillies foaled in New York State competing in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight event on turf carrying a $80,000 purse. The rail is positioned at 9 feet, providing fair racing conditions for the large field. This restricted event for New York-bred fillies creates opportunities for connections to showcase their breeding programs while competing for significant purse money.
Top Contenders
Jetties emerges as the standout choice despite longer morning line odds, representing the powerful Chad Brown stable with Flavien Prat aboard. The Brown-Prat combination has dominated turf racing throughout 2025, including three consecutive Diana Stakes victories. Brown’s exceptional record with juvenile fillies on turf, highlighted by Hard to Justify’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf victory, makes this entry the logical favorite despite the large field.
Credit Risk leads the algorithmic ratings and receives strong support from expert handicappers despite higher morning line odds. The Lisa Bartkowski-trained filly with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard has shown steady improvement in previous New York-bred events, including a competitive effort at Saratoga in July. The combination of favorable breeding and proven connections at this restricted level makes her a serious threat.
Starship Ava brings race experience from Michelle Nevin’s barn with Junior Alvarado taking the mount. The filly showed promise in her debut effort on September 28th at Belmont at the Big A, demonstrating ability despite finishing unplaced. The connections’ patience in finding the right spot suggests confidence in improvement.
Secondary Choices
Coach of the Year represents George Weaver’s stable with 2025 George Woolf Memorial Jockey Award winner Kendrick Carmouche aboard. The Weaver-Carmouche partnership brings proven success in stakes competition, and their New York-bred filly benefits from expert local knowledge.
Neshika completes Michael Maker’s entry with Joel Rosario handling riding duties. The Maker stable has shown excellent form during the current Belmont at the Big A meet, making this Twirling Candy filly worthy of consideration despite limited public form. The proven Maker-Rosario partnership adds credibility to this runner.
Considerate City from James Ferraro’s barn brings tactical speed and proven breeding for turf racing. The filly’s pedigree suggests grass aptitude, making her competitive in this New York-bred field despite longer odds.
Longshot Considerations
Morning Prayer represents Thomas Morley’s stable with Dylan Davis riding, offering potential value at longer odds. The trainer has shown recent activity with turf runners, suggesting this filly may be ready for improvement in her second career start.
Atenea from Jose Francisco D’Angelo’s barn merits consideration based on her breeding and the trainer’s knowledge of New York-bred fillies. First-time turf runners with proper breeding can often surprise in maiden events.
Rose Lisa trained by Jorge Abreu with Javier Castellano aboard brings proven connections despite longer odds. The Castellano factor in maiden events cannot be dismissed, particularly with fillies showing turf breeding.
Pace Analysis
The large field suggests a moderate to honest pace with several fillies likely to show early interest. Credit Risk and Morning Prayer profile as potential early leaders, while Jetties and Coach of the Year should be positioned tactically for late runs typical of their stable patterns.
The 1 1/16-mile distance on turf favors fillies with stamina and tactical speed, as positioning becomes crucial in large fields where traffic problems can develop. The rail position at 9 feet should provide fair racing conditions without significantly favoring inside or outside posts.
Key Angles
The Chad Brown factor with Jetties cannot be overstated given his dominance in juvenile turf racing. Brown’s fillies consistently improve from debut to second start, particularly on turf surfaces where his training methods excel. The Flavien Prat partnership adds another layer of confidence.
The New York-bred angle creates value opportunities as connections often target these restricted events for breakthrough performances. Credit Risk represents the best algorithmic play in this category, showing consistent improvement patterns.
The large field size creates opportunities for longer-priced runners to factor in the outcome, particularly fillies with proper turf breeding making their grass debuts. Several entries possess pedigrees suggesting grass aptitude that hasn’t been tested in competition.
Breeding Considerations
Two-year-old filly maiden events on turf often reveal hidden talent as grass breeding doesn’t always manifest in early dirt efforts. Several entries including Jetties, Coach of the Year, and Neshika possess pedigrees suggesting turf improvement.
The New York-bred restriction creates a more level playing field where local breeding programs can showcase their quality against national competition. This dynamic often produces value opportunities for astute handicappers.
Wagering Strategy
Win Selection: Jetties represents the strongest win bet despite potentially short odds, as the Brown-Prat combination brings proven excellence in juvenile turf racing.
Value Play: Credit Risk offers excellent value based on algorithmic ratings versus morning line odds, representing the best overlay in the field.
Place Coverage: Coach of the Year provides solid place coverage with the proven Weaver-Carmouche partnership and strong breeding for turf racing.
Exacta Strategy: Key Jetties on top with Credit Risk, Coach of the Year, and Starship Ava underneath for maximum coverage of the top algorithmic choices.
Trifecta Coverage: Use Jetties and Credit Risk as the top two selections, adding Coach of the Year, Starship Ava, Neshika, and Morning Prayer for comprehensive trifecta coverage.
The large field size suggests moderate wagering amounts with broader coverage rather than substantial win bets. The New York-bred restriction adds unpredictability, making defensive wagering strategies more appropriate than aggressive single-horse plays.
Race 7 – Allowance, 1 1/8 Miles Dirt (NY-Bred)
The 7th race features a $81,000 allowance event for fillies and mares three years old and upward foaled in New York State, competing at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. This restricted event is for horses that have never won $20,000 other than maiden, claiming or starter conditions, or have never won two races. The small field of seven creates tactical opportunities and reduces traffic concerns typical of larger allowance fields.
Top Contenders
Higher Force emerges as the overwhelming favorite at 2-1 morning line odds, receiving unanimous expert support across all handicapping sources. The Rudy Rodriguez-trained 3-year-old filly with Romero Ramsay Maragh aboard has been consistently competitive in recent allowance starts, finishing second in her last two efforts at this conditioned level. Her trainer Rodriguez maintains an excellent 22% win rate at this level over recent seasons and has shown particular success with New York-bred fillies.
Purpose represents the primary threat to the favorite, trained by H. James Bond with Javier Castellano taking the mount. The 4-year-old filly has shown competitive form in similar allowance company at Saratoga, including a solid effort in an $95,000 allowance event where she finished fourth at 9/2 odds. The Bond-Castellano partnership brings proven success in allowance competition, and the filly’s seasoning advantage over younger rivals makes her a legitimate contender.
Secondary Choices
Grace and Grit receives strong algorithmic support as the second choice despite longer odds, representing Linda Rice’s stable with 2025 George Woolf Memorial Jockey Award winner Kendrick Carmouche aboard. The 3-year-old filly has shown consistent form in New York-bred allowance competition, including a competitive effort in the October 19th allowance race at Belmont at the Big A. The Rice-Carmouche partnership excels with fillies at this level, particularly in restricted New York-bred events.
Capital Gal brings race experience from Jorge Abreu’s barn with Ricardo Santana Jr. handling riding duties. The 6-year-old mare has shown ability in New York-bred allowance company, including a victory at Belmont at the Big A in March 2025. Her seasoning advantage and proven ability at the 1 1/8-mile distance makes her competitive despite longer odds.
Longshot Considerations
Backcheck represents Miguel Clement’s stable with Luis Rivera Jr. aboard, bringing tactical speed from the outside post. The 3-year-old filly wears blinkers for the first time, suggesting connections expect improvement from equipment changes. Clement’s success with surface switches and equipment adjustments makes this runner worthy of consideration at longer odds.
Chasing Daylight completes Rudy Rodriguez’s double entry with Jose Antonio Gomez riding. The 6-year-old mare has shown excellent form in New York-bred stakes competition, including multiple victories at this distance. Her proven class at the stakes level makes her dangerous if able to recapture peak form.
Cara’s Dreamweaver from Mitchell Friedman’s barn with Dylan Davis aboard rounds out the field. The filly showed promise with a third-place finish in a Saratoga allowance event in August. Her improvement from debut to second start suggests continued progression is possible.
Pace Analysis
The small field size suggests a moderate pace with Higher Force and Backcheck likely to show early speed. Purpose and Capital Gal profile as tactical runners who can adapt to pace flow, while Grace and Grit and Chasing Daylight appear suited to closing from off the pace.
The 1 1/8-mile distance favors fillies with proven stamina, and several entrants have shown success at this trip previously. The restricted nature of the event creates a more level playing field where class advantages are minimized.
Key Angles
The Rudy Rodriguez double entry with Higher Force and Chasing Daylight suggests strong stable confidence, as the trainer rarely enters multiple horses without legitimate winning chances. Rodriguez’s 22% win rate and extensive success with New York-bred fillies at this level makes both entries worthy of consideration.
The New York-bred restriction creates value opportunities as these horses compete exclusively against state-bred competition rather than open company. Higher Force‘s consistent placings in conditioned allowance races suggest she’s ready for a breakthrough victory.
The small field eliminates traffic concerns typical of larger allowance fields, favoring horses with early speed who can establish favorable position. Purpose‘s tactical speed and proven ability at the distance makes her particularly attractive in this scenario.
Breeding and Residency
All entrants meet the strict New York breeding requirements, including foaling in New York State and meeting residency standards for their dams. The residency rules ensure these horses represent genuine New York breeding programs rather than “passport” entries.
Recent Form Analysis
Higher Force has been knocking on the door with consecutive second-place finishes in similar company, suggesting improvement and readiness for a breakthrough. Purpose brings solid Saratoga form to this restricted field, where class advantages may be more pronounced.
Grace and Grit has shown consistency in New York-bred allowance events and benefits from the proven Rice-Carmouche partnership. Capital Gal brings a victory at this level and distance, demonstrating proven ability under similar conditions.
Wagering Strategy
Win Selection: Higher Force represents the strongest win bet based on consistent recent form, proven connections, and universal expert support despite relatively short odds.
Value Play: Grace and Grit offers potential value as the algorithmic second choice at longer morning line odds than her rating suggests.
Place Coverage: Purpose provides solid place coverage with proven form at the distance and the tactical advantage of the Bond-Castellano partnership.
Exacta Strategy: Key Higher Force on top with Purpose and Grace and Grit underneath for maximum coverage of the top algorithmic choices.
Trifecta Coverage: Use Higher Force as the main selection, with Purpose and Grace and Grit as primary support, adding Capital Gal and Backcheck for comprehensive trifecta coverage.
The small field size and clear class separation make this an ideal race for focused wagering rather than broad coverage. The New York-bred restriction creates a more predictable outcome than typical open allowance races, favoring horses with proven form at this specific level of competition.
Race 8 – Claiming $35,000, 6 Furlongs Outer Turf
Mac to Moore receives strong expert endorsement from TimeformUS despite not being the algorithmic favorite. The Mike Maker trainee with Joel Rosario aboard has previously shown ability on turf and benefits from class relief.
Bembridge Ledge leads the algorithmic projections despite recent trainer changes. Parade Ring (IRE) brings European breeding to this competitive turf sprint.
Kyla’s Kause merits consideration based on her last race where she encountered traffic problems. The pace should be honest with multiple speed horses entered. Wagering angles: Value play on Mac to Moore at projected odds, exacta coverage with top algorithmic choices.
Jockey Analysis
Flavien Prat maintains multiple mounts throughout the card and brings his proven ability to Belmont, particularly with trainer partnerships like Chad Brown. Ricardo Santana Jr. provides consistent riding and tactical awareness across several races.
Kendrick Carmouche excels on this circuit and brings local knowledge to his assignments. Joel Rosario adds veteran experience to key mounts including the expert-recommended Mac to Moore.
Trainer Insights
Chad Brown enters multiple horses and maintains his reputation for having runners ready to win, particularly in turf events. Mike Maker has shown excellent form during the current Belmont at the Big A meet, making his runners attractive options.
Richard Dutrow Jr. handles several contenders and brings extensive experience with claiming horses. Linda Rice maintains multiple starters and knows how to place horses effectively at this level.
Wagering Strategy
Focus on single-race wagers given the competitive nature of today’s card. The early Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences offer value opportunities with logical favorites in the opening races.
Best Value Plays: Mac to Moore in Race 8 represents the strongest value proposition based on expert analysis. Credit Risk in Race 6 offers potential value based on algorithmic ratings versus morning line odds.
Conservative Approach: Higher Force in Race 7 provides the most reliable single-race wager. Up for an Oscar in Race 2 brings Chad Brown’s proven turf success to a competitive maiden event.
