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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.
Charles Town holds a competitive eight-race card featuring claiming events, maiden races, allowance company, and a mixture of open and West Virginia-bred restricted affairs. The card predominantly favors sprint distances interspersed with the two-turn sprint configuration of 6.5 furlongs specific to Charles Town’s bullring dirt layout. Several horses are scratched out of the races due to vet or steward rulings, most notably in races 1, 4, 5, and 7, affecting some field sizes. All races will be held under the lights in evening conditions, with the first post scheduled for 7:00 PM local time and the final race closing out the card at 10:32 PM.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 40s, with mostly cloudy skies and no precipitation expected. Winds will be light out of the north, with 70-75% humidity. These conditions support a dry, fast racing surface for the entirety of the card, maintaining Charles Town’s usual “fast” dirt track condition. There is no surface moisture expected to play into deeper closing styles tonight.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
Charles Town’s unique configuration—a six-furlong bullring with tight turns—typically puts a premium on early speed, especially in sprint races at 4.5 and 6.5 furlongs. Historical and recent statistics show 57% of 4.5-furlong dashes are won by frontrunners, with inside posts (one and two) performing notably best. Longer sprints, such as 6.5-furlong races, provide somewhat more opportunity for outside posts and mid-pack runners but still reward those able to attend the pace early. For today’s track setup and race mix, expect a strong inside and speed bias for most contests.
1st Race – Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs
Post Time
7:00 PM
Pace Analysis
With several lightly proven fillies and mares, expect Mitole Candy to show early intent from the rail, while Dream Street Rose and Cut Him Loose both have tactical speed to press or stalk. The race lacks true need-the-lead types but projects to favor those sitting first or second.
Key Contenders
Cut Him Loose is in the sharpest recent hands with Bocachica aboard for Runco, possesses the strongest speed figures, and projects for a top stalking trip. Dream Street Rose has class relief and tactical fitness, and has paired with a high-percentage local jockey. Just Have Faith is steady and likely to pick up pieces late if pace heats up but typically falls short at this class level.
Secondary Choices
Mitole Candy draws well and has flashed brief speed, landing in an ideal trip scenario if she can settle early. Aunt Jo enters off a series of tough spots and may contend for a minor share with improvement.
Longshots
Aim’s Jubilee is pace-dependent and needs weaker company to be effective but could sneak into exotics if others falter.
Selections
Win: Cut Him Loose
Place: Dream Street Rose
Show: Just Have Faith
2nd Race – Maiden Claiming – 4.5 Furlongs
Post Time
7:32 PM
Pace Analysis
Fast and contested as is common at the trip, with Bonds Revenge and Mister Grinch having the quickest gate profiles, chased closely by Dontcrosstheline.
Key Contenders
Bonds Revenge draws favorably with Bocachica, who excels at getting inexperienced horses into the race from the bell. Juba’s Taj finished well on debut and can improve with an outside draw. Mister Grinch has shown speed but remains suspect late.
Secondary Choices
Dontcrosstheline may get the jump from the rail and find the shortest way home if allowed an easy lead. Stella’s Candy has consistent connections but needs to prove she’s quick enough.
Longshots
Miss Nine One O drops in weight and could pick off tiring speed late.
Selections
Win: Bonds Revenge
Place: Juba’s Taj
Show: Mister Grinch
3rd Race – Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs
Post Time
8:02 PM
Pace Analysis
San Sebastian and Riverlee are candidates to duel early across the middle posts. Going to Ombra and Candy Connection may sit just off the leaders, leaving an honest to pressured pace.
Key Contenders
Candy Connection offers upside with Bocachica riding an improving sophomore, while Riverlee’s back races at the trip make him formidable for Grams’ barn. Jubacantfixthis can sit off the pace and get first run should the early pair tire.
Secondary Choices
Monkey Wrench has the class to contend for a minor spot, as does Heart of Gold, who drew the rail and gets a weight break.
Longshots
Going to Ombra would benefit from any pace collapse if able to launch a sustained outside move.
Selections
Win: Candy Connection
Place: Riverlee
Show: Jubacantfixthis
4th Race – Claiming – 4.5 Furlongs
Post Time
8:32 PM
Pace Analysis
Highly competitive dash favoring those with gate speed. Pistol Penny gets the rail and figures to be hustled, while Butterfly Effect and Ruby Bay both bring a turn of foot to challenge the leader.
Key Contenders
Pistol Penny has the positional edge. Bet Your Boots is battle-tested and lures a live rider off a quick turnaround. Audible the Play drops in for the tag and can get a stalking trip for an in-form barn.
Secondary Choices
Sing Me to Sleep comes in off a competitive series of tries, while Moonshine Mama draws well enough for a minor check.
Longshots
Butterfly Effect owns some late pace figures and would benefit from a hot early skirmish.
Selections
Win: Pistol Penny
Place: Bet Your Boots
Show: Audible the Play
5th Race – Claiming – 4.5 Furlongs
Post Time
9:02 PM
Pace Analysis
Several need-the-lead types signed on, including Special Note and Cowgirl Attitude, suggesting a pressured first quarter with the potential for a first-over stalker to capitalize.
Key Contenders
Snowy Juba Cat owns a tactical setup from off the speed under Bocachica. True Indy brings the best recent speed and gets a favorable post to settle and pounce.
Secondary Choices
Cowgirl Attitude lines up best of the pace group for a slice. Special Note has the light weight and can hang on for a share if she breaks sharply.
Longshots
Bali Hai could rally into a tiring group for a minor award at a price.
Selections
Win: Snowy Juba Cat
Place: True Indy
Show: Cowgirl Attitude
6th Race – Claiming – 4.5 Furlongs
Post Time
9:32 PM
Pace Analysis
Wide open event with Girl Zero, Coushatta Cutie, and Arditamente all likely to contest the lead. Don’t Blink could benefit in the event of a pace meltdown.
Key Contenders
Girl Zero is quick early and has the class to gut out a tough win with Bocachica up. His Choice exits a tough heat and projects for a closing run.
Secondary Choices
Coushatta Cutie and Late Night Spirit both fit in as logical minor placers with tactical speed.
Longshots
Don’t Blink could jump up if pace collapses as predicted.
Selections
Win: Girl Zero
Place: His Choice
Show: Coushatta Cutie
7th Race – Allowance – 4.5 Furlongs
Post Time
10:02 PM
Pace Analysis
Marilyn Moonroe and Stars Over Juba both figure quick from the bell, while secondary pressure could come from Navy Band.
Key Contenders
Marilyn Moonroe brings top trainer and jockey and is a perennial contender at the class. Stars Over Juba arrives with sharp recent form and the preferred running style.
Secondary Choices
Juba B Wild, under a major weight break, could upset if the favorites duel and tire. Jlodiamond is lightly raced and may be improving.
Longshots
Navy Band could grab a piece if able to save ground from the inside.
Selections
Win: Marilyn Moonroe
Place: Stars Over Juba
Show: Juba B Wild
8th Race – Maiden Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs
Post Time
10:32 PM
Pace Analysis
War Thunder is likely to be sent from the rail for a catch-me-if-you-can trip, while Wiley Willard offers similar intent just to his outside. Restrike should take up a closer’s role.
Key Contenders
Wiley Willard picks up Bocachica and brings in superior pace figures. War Thunder is the main speed and has the rail advantage.
Secondary Choices
Bukovel drops slightly and could improve. Restrike is the main late runner who could capitalize if the inside pair falter.
Longshots
Cedar’s Estate may get a clean trip for a minor spot if others duel early.
Selections
Win: Wiley Willard
Place: War Thunder
Show: Restrike
Jockey Notes and Insights
Arnaldo Bocachica remains the leading rider at Charles Town, known for maximizing early speed from both inside and outside posts. Victor Rodriguez and Juan Belisario are consistent with mid-priced horses, especially when teamed with sharp stables. Justin Lewis continues to ride live mounts with upside, while Fredy Peltroche is especially dangerous on stalking types in dashes.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jeff Runco and Ronney Brown dominate the local barn stats, particularly in lower-level claiming and restricted West Virginia-bred races. Anthony Farrior often targets allowance and claiming events with well-placed horses, and Marshall Campbell’s presence in the claiming ranks deserves respect, especially with live jockeys engaged.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Speed on or near the front and drawing inside is the recurring edge at Charles Town, especially at 4.5 furlongs. Multi-race bettors should key around proven inside speed and trainer/jockey combinations with histories of maximizing ground-saving trips. There is hidden value in second-off-the-layoff types stretching out at 6.5 furlongs and late-running types in full-field sprints where contested pace scenarios are projected.
Possible value plays for the card include Bet Your Boots (race 4), Cowgirl Attitude (race 5), and Bukovel (race 8) if pace collapses develop. Vertical exotics should emphasize speed but include at least one closer in multi-entry spreads to account for any breakdown in projected pace flow.
