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Churchill Downs presents a nine-race card on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, featuring a challenging mix of maiden claiming events, fillies and mares claiming races, and a quality turf allowance. The Fall Meet continues with strong handle potential, including a Derby City Six Jackpot carryover of $145,504 from Race 4 and Pick Five coverage starting in Race 1. First post time is 1:00 PM ET. The card includes multiple competitive maiden races that will require careful handicapping, as well as a contentious turf allowance in Race 8 showcasing top connections from the Brad Cox barn.
Weather and Track Conditions
Overcast skies will dominate the Louisville area on November 19, with temperatures struggling to reach the lower 50s. The forecast calls for drizzle patches throughout the afternoon, though conditions should remain raceable following heavy rain on November 18. The main track received significant moisture the previous day and will be listed as good to fast depending on drying conditions. The turf course, with the rail at 36 feet for Race 8, should handle the damp conditions well, though horses with proven form on softer ground gain an advantage. Temperatures will hover in the upper 40s to low 50s with minimal temperature variation due to persistent cloud cover.
Track Bias and Post Position Notes
The Churchill Downs Fall Meet has shown distinct biases through its first three weeks. In dirt sprints at six furlongs, stalkers have dominated at a 54 percent win rate during the second week, while posts 4-6 have combined for a 58 percent win rate. Middle posts continue to outperform both inside and outside draws. At distances beyond six furlongs, early speed has shown a 31 percent wire-to-wire success rate, but the track has played fairly for multiple running styles. The rail has shown mixed results, with Calvin Borel’s traditional rail-riding tactics less effective during this meet compared to historical patterns. Turf races favor tactical speed, particularly at the allowance level where deep closers struggle to overcome ground loss on the relatively short Churchill turf course.
Race 1: Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 1:00 PM
This maiden claiming event at 1 1/16 miles for two-year-olds features several intriguing first-time starters and lightly raced colts. The $20,000 claiming tag indicates modest quality, but the two-turn configuration should produce legitimate pace dynamics.
Pace Analysis
Mountain Wolf represents the primary early speed, likely controlling the pace from the outset. C. P. A. Jim and Prototype should track within striking distance through moderate fractions. The extended distance allows closers to factor, though inexperience at the trip makes pace projection uncertain.
Key Contenders
Mountain Wolf draws substantial support from the Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. combination, which wins at a 26 percent clip at Churchill Downs. Making his debut with top connections, this son of a quality sire should appreciate the two-turn configuration. Cox excels with first-time starters, particularly in maiden claiming company where he can identify overlooked talent. Ortiz Jr. is currently the leading jockey at the meet with 25 victories during the recently concluded Keeneland fall session.
C. P. A. Jim brings Kenneth McPeek training and Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard, another potent combination that has shown consistent success at the current meet. McPeek has saddled five winners from 31 starters, demonstrating solid form. The tactical speed profile fits the distance, and the colt should benefit from tracking the pacesetter.
Secondary Choices
Prototype, trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Erik Asmussen, enters off a debut at Keeneland. The Hall of Fame trainer leads all conditioners with 60 starters and strong earnings during the meet. The outside post allows options, and Asmussen’s stable has found form recently.
Baal, with Martin Garcia riding, represents another first-time starter with speed figures suggesting competitiveness in this company. The rail-to-first-turn run favors horses breaking alertly.
Selections
Win: Mountain Wolf
Place: C. P. A. Jim
Show: Prototype
Race 2: Claiming
Post Time: 1:29 PM
This six-furlong claiming sprint for fillies and mares three and older at the $20,000 level presents competitive balance among the top three choices. Recent form and jockey assignments indicate a tightly matched field.
Pace Analysis
The pace should develop moderately with multiple horses showing tactical speed. Golden Degree, Titled Lady, and Demi all possess the ability to sit close to modest fractions. No dominant speed horse suggests a contested but reasonable tempo favoring stalkers.
Key Contenders
Golden Degree attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. and Linda Rice training, bringing New York form to Kentucky. The filly has shown consistency in similar company and benefits from the leading rider. Rice runners often perform well when shipping to Churchill for spot plays.
Titled Lady reunites with Jose Ortiz and Michael Maker, a combination that excels in claiming races. Maker’s tactical approach and Ortiz’s patient riding style suit the distance and class level. The post-4 draw aligns with the current bias favoring middle positions.
Secondary Choices
Demi, trained by Eric Foster and ridden by Gabriel Saez, brings local connections and familiarity with the Churchill surface. Foster’s stable has shown improvement, and Saez knows when to time a late run.
We’ll Do It Live offers pace-pressing ability with Walter Rodriguez aboard. The filly could capitalize if the pace collapses, though the outside post presents challenges.
Selections
Win: Titled Lady
Place: Golden Degree
Show: Demi
Race 3: Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 1:58 PM
An eleven-horse maiden claiming sprint for two-year-olds creates a chaotic betting proposition. Several first-time starters and lightly raced colts make form analysis difficult, though one standout emerges.
Pace Analysis
Two Seven O should control the pace from the rail-adjacent post with no serious early challengers. Jock Frost may apply light pressure, but the favorite figures to secure comfortable fractions through the opening half-mile.
Key Contenders
Two Seven O, trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Erik Asmussen, represents the class of this field based on debut performance and breeding. The Asmussen stable excels with juvenile sprinters, and the post-2 draw provides tactical advantages. Morning line favoritism reflects confidence from connections.
Jock Frost brings speed and Luis Saez, a leading rider who consistently finds winners at Churchill. The colt’s tactical speed allows flexibility, and Saez’s aggressive style suits six-furlong maiden claiming sprints.
Secondary Choices
Vino Subito shows promise based on workout patterns, though the large field creates traffic concerns. The middle post provides options if the colt breaks sharply.
Wood You Dare represents a live longshot with morning training indicating readiness. Walter Rodriguez has found success throughout the meet.
Longshots
Silent Horizon at 10-1 morning line odds could surprise if finding a clear path. The filly shows speed figures suggesting competitiveness in this modest company.
Selections
Win: Two Seven O
Place: Jock Frost
Show: Vino Subito
Race 4: Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 2:27 PM
A twelve-horse maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds and up at the $30,000 level features older horses still seeking their first victory. The Derby City Six Jackpot begins in this race with a carryover of $145,504, creating enhanced betting interest.
Pace Analysis
Capital Connection and Aerate should establish the pace, with Mashburn and Tempus Prime tracking closely. The competitive nature suggests honest fractions that could set up closers, though the six-furlong distance limits come-from-behind opportunities.
Key Contenders
Capital Connection, ridden by Jose Ortiz for Joe Sharp, enters as the morning line favorite based on consistent efforts in similar company. Sharp has saddled six winners from 41 starters during the meet, demonstrating solid fundamentals. The post-7 draw sits in the statistical sweet spot that has produced 58 percent winners in similar races.
Aerate brings quality connections and tactical speed. The post-6 position falls within the favorable zone, and recent workouts suggest readiness.
Secondary Choices
Mashburn represents local training with Chase Miller aboard. The father-son combination knows the Churchill surface and could spring a mild upset.
Tempus Prime, trained by Jose D’Angelo and ridden by Luis Saez, shows improved form. Saez’s 23 million in earnings during 2023 reflects his ability to find spots for improving horses.
Selections
Win: Capital Connection
Place: Aerate
Show: Tempus Prime
Race 5: Claiming
Post Time: 2:57 PM
This six-furlong claiming event for fillies and mares features horses that have never won three races. The competitive nature and class restrictions create multiple viable contenders.
Pace Analysis
Just an Opinion and Tartaria should establish the pace, with Streaking and Wonder of You tracking. The tempo appears reasonable, allowing stalkers to remain within striking distance throughout.
Key Contenders
Just an Opinion, trained by Joe Sharp and ridden by Jose Ortiz, combines proven form with favorable connections. Sharp’s success during the meet and Ortiz’s consistency make this filly a logical choice. The post-4 draw aligns with statistical advantages.
Tartaria, trained by George Leonard III and ridden by Jaime Torres, brings local knowledge and tactical speed. Leonard has shown improvement with limited starters during the meet.
Secondary Choices
Streaking offers pace-pressing ability with Emmanuel Esquivel aboard. Lane Johnston’s training has produced steady improvement, and the post-8 draw allows flexibility.
Wonder of You represents the Asmussen stable with Erik Asmussen riding. The combination has found success throughout the meet in similar company.
Selections
Win: Just an Opinion
Place: Tartaria
Show: Streaking
Race 6: Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 3:26 PM
An eleven-horse maiden claiming sprint for two-year-old fillies at the $100,000 level showcases higher-quality juveniles than earlier maiden events. The elevated claiming price suggests owners protecting potential.
Pace Analysis
Multiple fillies show early speed, creating the potential for contested fractions. Glazin’ Fury, You’re in Heaven, and Silvertown all possess the ability to contest the pace through the opening half-mile.
Key Contenders
You’re in Heaven attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. and Dallas Stewart training, combining top-tier connections with a favorable post draw. Stewart’s consistent success with juvenile fillies and Ortiz Jr.’s leading rider status create a formidable partnership. The post-5 position falls within the statistically favorable zone.
Glazin’ Fury, ridden by Luis Saez, brings tactical speed and proven connections. Saez’s aggressive style suits six-furlong maiden sprints, and the filly has shown promising workouts.
Secondary Choices
Silvertown offers flexibility from the post-6 draw with Emmanuel Esquivel aboard. The filly’s breeding suggests improvement with racing experience.
Lockdownyourtown represents Philip Sims training with Luan Machado riding. The combination has shown competence in similar company.
Selections
Win: You’re in Heaven
Place: Glazin’ Fury
Show: Silvertown
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 3:55 PM
This one-mile maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies features higher-quality prospects than claiming company. Several well-bred fillies make their debuts or return with improved conditioning.
Pace Analysis
Multiple fillies possess tactical speed, creating competitive but reasonable fractions. Intangible, Leedu, and Nycon should establish positions near the pace through moderate opening quarters. The one-mile distance rewards fillies rating kindly while maintaining striking position.
Key Contenders
Intangible brings the powerful Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. combination to this competitive maiden. Cox dominates trainer standings with multiple victories and strong earnings during the meet. The filly’s breeding suggests one-mile ability, and Cox excels at placing two-year-old fillies in optimal spots. Ortiz Jr.’s patient style allows the filly to settle and make one sustained run.
Leedu, trained by Joe Sharp and ridden by Jose Ortiz, represents another quality partnership. Sharp’s consistent success and Ortiz’s tactical riding create confidence. The post-5 draw provides flexibility approaching the first turn.
Secondary Choices
Nycon offers tactical speed with Jaime Torres aboard. The filly’s workouts suggest readiness for the distance, and the post-3 draw allows early position.
Flash of Freedom represents Philip Sims training with Luan Machado riding. The combination has shown improvement, and the filly’s breeding indicates distance potential.
Selections
Win: Intangible
Place: Leedu
Show: Nycon
Race 8: Allowance
Post Time: 4:25 PM
This 1 1/16 miles turf allowance for two-year-old fillies showcases quality juveniles in allowance company. The race features horses that have won once, with weight allowances for non-winners beyond a mile on turf. If deemed inadvisable to run on turf, the race transfers to the main track.
Pace Analysis
Dame Laura and Aggressive Lime should establish reasonable fractions on the turf course. The rail position at 36 feet creates a fair racing surface without significant bias. The two-turn configuration rewards fillies rating within striking distance while maintaining position approaching the final turn.
Key Contenders
Aggressive Lime represents the third Brad Cox entry ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. on the card, demonstrating the trainer’s dominance during the Fall Meet. Cox has won 12 victories from substantial starters, and the combination with Ortiz Jr. produces 26 percent winners. The filly brings proven turf form and class, making her a logical favorite. The post-9 draw requires skillful navigation, but Ortiz Jr. excels at finding paths on the Churchill turf course.
Dame Laura, trained by Brendan Walsh and ridden by Luis Saez, offers tactical speed and proven turf ability. Walsh’s stable has shown consistent form with grass runners, and Saez’s patience allows the filly to settle into comfortable fractions.
Secondary Choices
Back Ring Buzz brings Michael Maker training and Jose Ortiz aboard, a combination that excels with turf fillies. Maker’s tactical approach and Ortiz’s rating ability create confidence. The post-8 draw provides options.
Conceit represents another Brad Cox entry with Florent Geroux riding. The filly brings quality form and proven connections, offering backup coverage for Cox’s stable.
Selections
Win: Aggressive Lime
Place: Dame Laura
Show: Back Ring Buzz
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 4:55 PM
A twelve-horse maiden special weight sprint for two-year-olds restricted to horses that sold for $65,000 or less creates competitive balance. The restrictions level the field, making form analysis critical.
Pace Analysis
Patriot Moon should establish the pace from the outside post, with Outlaw Empire tracking closely. Multiple horses show tactical speed, creating honest fractions through the opening half-mile. The six-furlong distance favors horses showing early speed or sitting close to the pace.
Key Contenders
Patriot Moon, trained by Victoria Oliver and ridden by Luis Saez, enters as the morning line favorite based on strong workouts and breeding. Saez’s consistent success throughout the meet and the filly’s tactical speed make this combination logical. The outside post allows options, and Saez excels at breaking sharply and securing position.
Outlaw Empire brings Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. and W. Bret Calhoun training, a combination that finds success with juvenile maidens. Calhoun’s patient approach allows horses to develop confidence, and Hernandez Jr. has shown consistent form during the meet.
Secondary Choices
My Milestone offers Joe Sharp training with Jaime Torres aboard. Sharp’s consistent success and the post-7 draw falling within favorable statistics create interest.
Slay Sadie Slay attracts Irad Ortiz Jr., indicating confidence from connections. Richard Dutrow Jr.’s training adds intrigue, as the veteran conditioner knows how to spot maiden races.
Longshots
Righteous, trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Jose Ortiz, represents a live longshot at morning line odds. Maker excels at finding spots for improving maidens, and Ortiz’s tactical skills could produce value.
Selections
Win: Patriot Moon
Place: Outlaw Empire
Show: My Milestone
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. dominates the jockey standings with 25 victories during the recently concluded Keeneland fall meet and continues his momentum at Churchill Downs. The leading rider brings consistent tactical excellence and combines with Brad Cox at a 26 percent win rate. Ortiz Jr. rides Mountain Wolf in Race 1, You’re in Heaven in Race 6, Intangible in Race 7, Aggressive Lime in Race 8, and Slay Sadie Slay in Race 9. His five mounts represent logical plays across multiple race types and distances. Ortiz Jr. earned over $39 million in 2023 and continues to set earnings records through relentless work ethic.
Jose Ortiz complements his brother’s success with consistent performances at Churchill Downs. The talented rider excels in claiming company and maiden races, demonstrating patience and tactical awareness. Jose rides Titled Lady in Race 2, Capital Connection in Race 4, Just an Opinion in Race 5, and Back Ring Buzz in Race 8. His four mounts span claiming and allowance company, showcasing his versatility. Jose earned over $22 million in 2023, ranking fifth nationally among all jockeys.
Luis Saez brings aggressive tactics and strong gate skills to six mounts on the card. The veteran rider excels at securing position through opening fractions and maintaining tactical flexibility. Saez rides Jock Frost in Race 3, Tempus Prime in Race 4, Glazin’ Fury in Race 6, Dame Laura in Race 8, and Patriot Moon in Race 9. His consistency and ability to rate horses make him a constant threat. Saez earned $23 million in 2023, ranking fourth nationally.
Gabriel Saez and Jaime Torres represent local riders with strong Churchill Downs records. Both understand track biases and excel at navigating traffic in competitive fields. Emmanuel Esquivel has shown improvement throughout the meet and merits attention when riding for quality barns.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox leads all trainers with 12 victories from substantial starters during the Fall Meet, demonstrating his dominance in Kentucky racing. The Louisville-based conditioner earned over $30 million in 2023 and won 12 Grade 1 races throughout the year. Cox combines tactical excellence with patient horse development, allowing runners to peak at optimal moments. Mountain Wolf in Race 1, Intangible in Race 7, Aggressive Lime and Conceit in Race 8 represent quality plays from the barn. Cox’s 26 percent win rate with Irad Ortiz Jr. creates automatic respect, particularly in maiden and allowance company.
Steve Asmussen brings the largest stable to Churchill Downs with 60 starters through three weeks of the meet. The Hall of Fame trainer has saddled four winners and earned nearly $700,000, demonstrating consistent quality despite volume. Asmussen excels with juvenile maidens and claiming horses, finding spots where class advantages materialize. Prototype in Race 1, Two Seven O in Race 3, and Wonder of You in Race 5 represent logical plays from the barn. Asmussen’s patient approach allows horses to develop confidence before stepping up in class.
Kenneth McPeek has saddled four winners from 35 starters, demonstrating solid form during the meet. The veteran conditioner excels with two-year-olds and finds success in maiden claiming company. C. P. A. Jim in Race 1 represents his best chance on the card. McPeek combines tactical excellence with strong breeding knowledge, often uncovering value where others see limitations.
Joe Sharp continues consistent success with six winners from 41 starters, demonstrating fundamental soundness. Sharp excels in claiming races and allowance company where tactical advantages exist. Capital Connection in Race 4, Just an Opinion in Race 5, and My Milestone in Race 9 represent quality opportunities. Sharp’s patient development creates horses peaking at the right moments.
Michael Maker and Brendan Walsh represent successful East Coast trainers shipping quality horses to Churchill for spot plays. Both excel with turf runners and demonstrate tactical awareness in allowance company. Titled Lady in Race 2, Back Ring Buzz in Race 8, and Righteous in Race 9 merit attention from both barns.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Derby City Six Jackpot beginning in Race 4 with a carryover of $145,504 creates significant wagering opportunities. Constructing tickets using single Capital Connection in Race 4, spreading in the competitive Race 5, singling Intangible in Race 7, using Aggressive Lime and Dame Laura in Race 8, and spreading the contentious Race 9 provides coverage while managing costs. The Pick 3 beginning in Race 7 with 15 percent takeout offers value, particularly using Brad Cox runners as single or double coverage.
Mountain Wolf in Race 1 represents the best single-race play, combining Brad Cox training, Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, and logical class placement. The combination justifies shorter odds and merits confidence despite maiden claiming company. Two Seven O in Race 3 offers similar confidence from the Asmussen barn with dominant credentials.
Value emerges in Race 2 where Titled Lady should offer odds based on competitive balance among the top three choices. The Michael Maker training and Jose Ortiz riding combination often produces overlay opportunities in claiming company. Race 6 presents value potential if You’re in Heaven drifts from morning line odds, as the Dallas Stewart and Irad Ortiz Jr. combination justifies favoritism.
Exacta and trifecta opportunities exist in Race 8 where Brad Cox saddles multiple entries. Keying Aggressive Lime over Dame Laura and Back Ring Buzz creates logical exotic structure at value prices. The allowance quality and turf distance create potential for generous payouts if the favorite performs as expected while secondary choices fill minor positions.
Daily double coverage linking Race 7 and Race 8 using Intangible with Aggressive Lime and Dame Laura provides strong probability while managing risk. The Brad Cox dominance in both races creates confidence, and combining his runners with quality secondary choices builds efficient tickets. Pick 4 coverage beginning in Race 6 using multiple horses in the competitive maiden claiming race, singling Intangible in Race 7, using Cox runners in Race 8, and spreading the finale creates balanced coverage across race types and class levels.
