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Churchill Downs offers excellent racing conditions with fast dirt and firm turf surfaces under partly cloudy skies. The day temperature will reach 64°F with minimal precipitation chance (10%) and light winds, creating ideal conditions for racing. First post is scheduled for 1:00 PM EST with nine races featuring purses ranging from $36,000 to $127,000.​

Track Conditions and Weather

The main track is rated fast with firm turf conditions expected to remain consistent throughout the afternoon. Weather conditions show partly cloudy skies with temperatures reaching 64°F during racing hours and dropping to 48°F by evening. Wind speeds remain light from the west-northwest at approximately 7 mph, creating favorable racing conditions across all distances.​

Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming Fillies (6F Dirt, 1:00 PM)

Purse: $57,000, Claiming Price: $30,000

Key Contenders:
Kitten Gloves emerges as the morning line favorite with Jose L. Ortiz aboard for trainer Chris A. Hartman. Ortiz ranks third among Churchill Downs jockeys with an 17% win rate and strong in-the-money percentage. Oaks Street represents value for trainer Joe Sharp, who maintains solid statistics at the meet.​

Secondary Choices:
Wanna Go Home pairs trainer John Ennis with jockey Adam Beschizza, creating a competent combination for maiden claiming competition. La Presumida shows potential for trainer Luis E. Seglin with J.J. Meza riding.

Longshots to Consider:
Nonstop Vino could provide value at longer odds with Edgar Morales riding for trainer John Ennis. Bective Abbey represents Michael A. Tomlinson with Jaime A. Torres aboard.

Pace Analysis:
The six-furlong distance typically develops moderate early pace, favoring horses with tactical speed. The field appears evenly matched, suggesting a competitive pace scenario.

Wagering Strategy:

Race 2 – Maiden Claiming Colts (1 1/16M Dirt, 1:29 PM)

Purse: $57,000, Claiming Price: $30,000

Key Contenders:
Seal Bay represents trainer Brendan P. Walsh with Tyler Gaffalione riding. Gaffalione leads Churchill Downs jockeys with 26 wins and 25% strike rate, creating the race’s strongest combination. Herbs Bolt pairs Irad Ortiz Jr. with trainer Chris Hartman, representing elite connections.​

Secondary Choices:
Consequential shows potential for Kenneth G. McPeek with Emmanuel Esquivel aboard. McPeek maintains solid Churchill Downs statistics with recent maiden claiming success.​

Longshots to Consider:
Federal Agent could provide value for trainer Bobby C. Barnett with Edgar Morales riding. Hot Ice represents George R. Arnold II with Gabriel Saez aboard.

Pace Analysis:
The 1 1/16-mile distance allows for pace development, likely favoring horses with tactical positioning and finishing kick.

Wagering Strategy:

Race 3 – Claiming (6F Dirt, 1:58 PM)

Purse: $76,000, Claiming Price: $50,000

Key Contenders:
South Bend Tom represents Albert M. Stall Jr. with Tyler Gaffalione riding, creating strong trainer-jockey combination. Brave Blend pairs J. Kent Sweezey with Irad Ortiz Jr., bringing proven connections to claiming competition.​

Secondary Choices:
Linebacker shows potential for Jordan Blair with Jaime A. Torres aboard. Attersee represents Chris M. Block with Jose L. Ortiz riding.

Longshots to Consider:
You Belong Here could provide value for trainer Genaro Garcia with Vincent Cheminaud aboard. Il Cavallino represents Genevieve Londono with James Graham riding.

Pace Analysis:
Six-furlong claiming races typically develop honest pace, favoring horses with early speed and tactical positioning.

Wagering Strategy:

Race 4 – Maiden Claiming (1M Dirt, 2:27 PM)

Purse: $57,000, Claiming Price: $30,000

Key Contenders:
The Chalk represents Steven M. Asmussen with Keith J. Asmussen riding. Despite Asmussen’s modest Churchill Downs statistics this meet, the trainer-jockey family combination brings extensive experience. Wartank pairs S. Jade Cunningham with Gabriel Saez, creating competent maiden claiming connections.​

Secondary Choices:
Aubrey’s Max shows potential for trainer Lacy Pierce with Johnathon Curtsinger aboard. Just Call Rip represents Eric R. Reed with John McKee riding.

Longshots to Consider:
Papa Alden could provide value for trainer Lacy Pierce with Vincent Cheminaud aboard. Midnight Vengeance represents Genevieve Londono with James Graham riding.

Pace Analysis:
One-mile maiden claiming races develop moderate pace, typically favoring horses with tactical positioning and finishing ability.

Wagering Strategy:

Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (1 1/8M, 2:57 PM)

Purse: $120,000

This competitive maiden special weight for fillies and mares represents the day’s premier turf event, featuring strong connections and several horses with significant recent form.​

Key Contenders

Weighted Average (8) – 4F, 124 lbs
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Trainer: Chad C. Brown

The clear standout based on recent form and connections. This Chad Brown-trained filly finished second as the 6/4 favorite at Kentucky Downs on September 4, 2025, in a maiden special weight over 1 2/16 miles on turf. She also finished second at Keeneland on October 9, 2025, as the 6/5 morning line favorite. Brown leads all trainers nationally in turf maiden victories and consistently develops late-maturing fillies. Gaffalione brings his Churchill Downs-leading 25% win rate and exceptional turf expertise to this partnership. The filly carries the 124-pound weight for older horses but has demonstrated she belongs at this level through consistent runner-up efforts against quality competition.​

McKinzie’s Glory (4) – 3F, 121 lbs
Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek

Strong secondary choice from McPeek’s proven turf program. While still seeking her first victory after six career starts, she represents one of Kentucky’s most successful turf trainers. McPeek maintains solid Churchill Downs statistics with 11% strike rate and substantial earnings from quality horse placement. Leparoux brings extensive turf experience and understanding of McPeek’s patient development approach. The three-year-old filly receives the 3-pound weight advantage over older rivals and should benefit from race experience and tactical positioning.​

Somerville (2) – 3F, 121 lbs
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek

McPeek’s second entry provides tactical options and depth from his successful maiden development program. The trainer’s decision to enter multiple fillies suggests confidence in their preparation and readiness. Esquivel’s aggressive riding style suits maiden competition where positioning and tactical decisions prove crucial. The inside post position creates options for early positioning while avoiding traffic concerns common in large turf fields.​

Secondary Choices

You’re So Vain (1) – 3F, 121 lbs
Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Jesus Cruz

Represents value from the rail post with proven jockey Gabriel Saez aboard. Cruz maintains modest statistics but shows occasional success with maiden fillies. The rail position provides tactical advantages in large turf fields where outside posts can encounter traffic problems.​

Emmy Blue (6) – 3F, 121 lbs
Jockey: Luis Saez Trainer: Victoria H. Oliver

Shows potential with Luis Saez riding for trainer Victoria Oliver. Saez brings solid Churchill Downs experience with 14% win rate and proven turf ability. The filly represents connections showing recent activity and competitive horses.​

Longshots to Consider

The Palace Girl (GER) (10) – 3F, 121 lbs
Jockey: Axel Concepcion Trainer: William Walden

European breeding creates intrigue for American turf debut. German-bred fillies often possess stamina advantages for longer turf distances. Concepcion brings solid recent form and understanding of European-style tactical racing. The 10-1 morning line odds provide excellent value potential if adapting successfully to American racing conditions.​

El Zain (7) – 4F, 124 lbs
Jockey: Edgar Morales Trainer: Andrew McKeever

Older mare with racing experience brings different dimension to maiden competition. The four-year-old receives full weight allowances but brings maturity advantage over younger rivals. McKeever shows modest success with patient development approaches.​

Pace Analysis

The 1 1/8-mile turf distance typically develops moderate early pace with tactical positioning crucial for success. Multiple horses show tactical speed capabilities, suggesting honest early fractions without excessive pressure. The Churchill Downs turf course rewards horses securing good early position while maintaining energy for sustained stretch drives.​

Weighted Average’s recent runner-up efforts suggest tactical speed with proven finishing ability over similar distances. McKinzie’s Glory brings experience with tactical positioning from previous starts. The large field creates opportunities for patient riders to secure favorable trips while avoiding early traffic.​

Key Angles to Consider

Trainer Patterns: Chad Brown’s exceptional record with turf maidens creates significant confidence in Weighted Average. His fillies typically show improvement with experience and benefit from patient development approaches. Brown’s 23% strike rate with turf maiden graduates provides statistical support.​

Jockey Factors: Gaffalione’s Churchill Downs success (25% win rate) combined with turf expertise makes him the race’s strongest jockey choice. His partnership with Brown creates the most reliable combination in competitive maiden company.​

Class Considerations: The $120,000 purse and preference clause for horses not starting below $50,000 ensures quality field depth. Recent form at Keeneland and Kentucky Downs provides strong formlines for evaluating competitive ability.​

Track Conditions Impact

Firm turf conditions favor horses with proven grass experience over debut runners making surface transitions. The 1 1/8-mile distance allows tactical development while rewarding horses with sustained finishing ability. Churchill Downs’ turf course configuration typically produces competitive finishes where positioning and timing prove crucial.​

Wagering Strategy

Race 6 – Claiming (6 1/2F Dirt, 3:26 PM)

Purse: $36,000, Claiming Price: $16,000

Key Contenders:
Farm Team represents David Jacobson with Tyler Gaffalione riding. Jacobson ranks second among Churchill Downs trainers with 27% strike rate, creating strong angle. Tis Charming pairs Steven M. Asmussen with Keith J. Asmussen, bringing family trainer-jockey combination.​

Secondary Choices:
Atlantic Dancer shows potential for Jason G. Cook with Jose L. Ortiz aboard. Wind Rider represents George R. Arnold II with Luis Saez riding.

Longshots to Consider:
Purse Thief could provide value for trainer Eric N. Foster with Carlos Barbosa aboard. Clear Echo represents Aaron Shorter with Francisco Arrieta riding.

Pace Analysis:
The 6 1/2-furlong distance creates moderate pace development, favoring horses with tactical speed and positioning.

Wagering Strategy:
Win: Farm Team ($4)
Exacta: 3-2, 2-3 ($2 each)
Trifecta: 3/2,8/ALL ($6)

Race 7 – Claiming Fillies (5 1/2F Dirt, 3:55 PM)

Purse: $45,000, Claiming Price: $25,000

Key Contenders:
Agua Fresca represents Steven M. Asmussen with Keith J. Asmussen riding, bringing family trainer-jockey combination to two-year-old filly competition. Aye Bay Bay pairs Larry Rivelli with Irad Ortiz Jr., creating strong connections for claiming competition.​

Secondary Choices:
Call Me Angel shows potential for David Fawkes with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Ashkenazi represents Eddie Kenneally with Luis Saez riding.​

Longshots to Consider:
Ohoopee could provide value for Wesley A. Ward with Walter A. Rodriguez aboard. Little Sam’s represents Israel Acevedo with Andres Calleja riding.

Pace Analysis:
Five and one-half furlong races typically develop honest pace, favoring horses with early speed and tactical positioning.

Wagering Strategy:
Win: Agua Fresca ($5)
Place: Aye Bay Bay ($3)
Exacta: 7-8, 8-7 ($2 each)

Race 8 – Allowance Turf (1 1/8M, 4:25 PM)

Purse: $127,000

This competitive allowance race for three-year-olds and upward represents the day’s most valuable turf event, featuring horses that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter, or have never won two races.​

Key Contenders

Global Asset (10) – 3C, 118 lbs
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Brad H. Cox

The standout choice combining the meet’s leading trainer with the top jockey. Cox leads Churchill Downs trainers with 23% strike rate and $886,379 in earnings, while Ortiz Jr. brings 27% win percentage from 84 starts. This three-year-old colt represents Juddmonte ownership, indicating significant quality and investment. Cox’s exceptional turf record and proven ability to develop allowance horses creates strong confidence. The trainer has captured multiple stakes at the current meet, demonstrating current form and horse readiness. Ortiz Jr.’s tactical riding ability and stakes experience provide advantages in competitive allowance company.​

Fort Thomas (8) – 4C, 121 lbs
Jockey: Florent Geroux Trainer: George R. Arnold II

Strong secondary choice with proven turf connections. Arnold ranks among Churchill Downs’ successful trainers this meet with solid statistics. Geroux brings extensive turf experience and has ridden this horse previously, creating familiarity advantages. The four-year-old has competed at allowance level throughout 2025, showing consistent form and ability to compete with quality horses. Recent efforts demonstrate readiness for this competition level.​

Montador (3) – 3C, 118 lbs
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Trainer: Michael Stidham

Dangerous contender with the meet’s leading jockey aboard. Gaffalione leads all Churchill Downs jockeys with 25% win rate and highest earnings. The three-year-old brings tactical speed and recent turf experience. Stidham maintains solid training statistics and has shown ability to place horses competitively at allowance level.​

Secondary Choices

Maximum Promise (11) – 3C, 118 lbs
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek

Intriguing prospect from McPeek’s proven development program. This Maximum Security colt won his maiden impressively by 14 1/2 lengths before competing in Kentucky Derby prep races. His turf debut was unsuccessful, but the return to grass with experience could produce improvement. McPeek’s 11% Churchill Downs strike rate and ability to develop allowance horses creates potential value.​

Maui Strong (5) – 3C, 118 lbs
Jockey: Vincent Cheminaud Trainer: Dale L. Romans

Shows recent turf form and competitive ability. Romans brings solid training credentials and understanding of turf racing development. The three-year-old has demonstrated ability to compete at allowance level and should benefit from race experience.​

Blast Furnace (7) – 4G, 123 lbs
Jockey: Luis Saez Trainer: Michael J. Maker

Represents experienced turf connections with solid recent form. Maker maintains strong turf training statistics and has shown consistent ability to place horses competitively. Saez brings proven turf riding ability with 14% Churchill Downs win rate. The four-year-old carries full weight but brings racing experience advantages.​

Longshots to Consider

Enterdadragon (4) – 3G, 118 lbs
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz Trainer: Philip D’Amato

California shipper with strong West Coast connections. D’Amato brings proven training ability and success with turf horses. Jose Ortiz provides solid jockey credentials with 17% Churchill Downs strike rate. The three-year-old shows 17% career win rate and could provide value at longer odds.​

Show of Force (1) – 3C, 118 lbs
Jockey: Edgar Morales Trainer: Genaro Garcia

Rail runner with tactical advantages from inside post position. Garcia shows occasional success with allowance horses, and the rail provides positioning benefits in large turf fields.​

Pace Analysis

The 1 1/8-mile turf distance typically develops tactical racing where positioning and finishing ability prove crucial. Large field size creates opportunities for patient riders to secure favorable trips while avoiding early traffic. Multiple horses show tactical speed capabilities, suggesting moderate early fractions without excessive pressure.​

Global Asset brings proven tactical ability and finishing kick demonstrated in previous starts. Fort Thomas shows experience with positioning at allowance level. The pace scenario should favor horses with tactical positioning and sustained finishing ability over pure speed horses.

Key Angles to Consider

Trainer Patterns: Cox’s exceptional allowance record creates significant confidence in Global Asset. His horses typically show improvement with experience and benefit from patient development. Cox’s current form at Churchill Downs provides additional support.​

Jockey Factors: The Ortiz Jr./Cox combination represents the strongest partnership in competitive allowance company. Gaffalione’s Churchill Downs success creates value with Montador despite competitive field.​

Class Considerations: The $127,000 purse ensures quality field depth with multiple horses showing proven allowance ability. Recent form at Keeneland and other major tracks provides reliable formlines for evaluation.​

Surface Considerations

Firm turf conditions favor horses with proven grass experience over surface newcomers. The Churchill Downs turf course configuration rewards tactical positioning and sustained finishing ability. Weather conditions remain favorable with no precipitation expected.​

Wagering Strategy

Win Selection: Global Asset ($6) offers the best combination of elite connections, proven ability, and current form. The Cox/Ortiz Jr. partnership creates the race’s strongest angle.

Value Play: Fort Thomas ($5) represents solid value with proven turf connections and Arnold’s training ability. Geroux’s familiarity with the horse creates additional confidence.

Exacta Strategy: Key Global Asset over Fort Thomas and Montador ($10). Box Global Asset with Fort Thomas for strongest combination ($8).

Trifecta Coverage: Use Global Asset and Fort Thomas on top with Montador, Maximum Promise, and Blast Furnace for comprehensive coverage ($24).

Place Protection: Global Asset place ($4) and Fort Thomas show ($3) provide downside protection while maintaining profit potential.

Superfecta Play: Key Global Asset and Fort Thomas over Montador, Maximum Promise, Maui Strong, and Blast Furnace for multiple combinations ($18).

Longshot Special: Enterdadragon ($2 win) offers upset potential with California connections and Jose Ortiz riding at attractive odds.

This race represents Global Asset’s opportunity to graduate to allowance competition with the meet’s strongest trainer-jockey combination, while Fort Thomas provides the primary challenge from proven turf connections.​

Race 9 – Maiden Claiming (6F Dirt, 4:55 PM)

Purse: $67,000, Claiming Price: $50,000

Key Contenders:
Globalist represents J. Kent Sweezey with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, creating strong maiden claiming combination. Thirteen G’s pairs Chris Hartman with Jose L. Ortiz, bringing proven Churchill Downs connections.​

Secondary Choices:
White Whale shows potential for George R. Arnold II with Luis Saez aboard. Game and Smart represents David Jacobson with Tyler Gaffalione riding.​

Longshots to Consider:
Nash Potatoes could provide value for Troy Newton with Axel Concepcion aboard. Galantini represents Eric N. Foster with Adam Beschizza riding.

Pace Analysis:
Six-furlong maiden claiming races develop moderate pace, typically favoring horses with tactical positioning and early speed.

Wagering Strategy:
Win: Globalist ($5)
Place: Thirteen G’s ($3)
Exacta: 1-7, 7-1 ($2 each)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Tyler Gaffalione leads Churchill Downs jockeys with 26 wins from 104 starts (25% strike rate) and highest earnings at $2,173,858. His aggressive riding style and track knowledge create advantages across multiple race types.​

Irad Ortiz Jr. maintains exceptional form with 23 wins from 84 starts (27% strike rate) and strong in-the-money percentage. His tactical riding ability and stakes experience provide advantages in competitive allowance and maiden special weight events.​

Jose L. Ortiz shows consistent performance with 11 wins from 66 starts (17% strike rate) and solid earnings. His patient riding style suits longer distances and tactical racing scenarios.​

Luis Saez brings proven ability with 10 wins from 71 starts (14% strike rate). His experience with turf racing and claiming competition creates value opportunities.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brad H. Cox leads Churchill Downs trainers with 9 wins from 39 starts (23% strike rate) and earnings of $886,379. His success across multiple divisions creates confidence in allowance and stakes competition.​

David Jacobson shows excellent form with 8 wins from 30 starts (27% strike rate). His claiming expertise and horse placement create value opportunities in lower-level competition.​

Steven M. Asmussen brings extensive experience despite modest recent Churchill Downs statistics with 4 wins from 60 starts. His family trainer-jockey combinations with Keith J. Asmussen create interesting angles.​

Kenneth G. McPeek maintains solid statistics with 4 wins from 35 starts (11% strike rate) and substantial earnings. His turf expertise and maiden development create value in grass events.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays