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Churchill Downs hosts a 10-race card on Thursday, November 20, 2025, with first post at 1:00 PM EST. The card includes a mix of claiming races, maiden special weights, and an allowance optional claiming event, providing multiple opportunities for handicappers to find value across different class levels. Today’s racing features significant carryovers, with the Derby City Six Jackpot at $1,543,419 and a Pick 3 with a low 15% takeout starting in Race 8.
The Fall Meet continues at Churchill Downs with competitive fields and strong representation from top trainers and jockeys currently dominating the standings. Post position statistics reveal that posts 4-6 have been particularly advantageous during the current meet, winning 49% of dirt sprint races over the first two weeks.
Weather and Track Conditions
The track is expected to be fast on the main dirt surface and firm on the turf course. Churchill Downs maintains excellent drainage and track maintenance throughout the fall season, with conditions generally favoring the main track during this time of year. With clear conditions anticipated, the track should offer consistent racing surfaces for both dirt and turf events.
Race 4 and Race 7 include provisions to move from turf to dirt if conditions warrant, with the rail set at 36 feet for turf races. Current weather forecasts indicate favorable racing conditions throughout the afternoon card.
Track Bias and Post Position Notes
Churchill Downs has exhibited distinct patterns during the Fall Meet that handicappers should consider. In dirt sprints, posts 4-6 have dominated with a 49% win rate in the first two weeks. Post 5, in particular, continues to perform exceptionally well at Churchill Downs, accounting for 22% of dirt sprint winners. Stalking tactics have proven highly successful, winning 54% of races in week two of the meet.
For route races on dirt that are one mile or longer, inside posts 1-3 have accounted for 15% of the winners, while posts 3-5 combined have been the most successful. Closers have had difficulty in mile races, going winless in five tries during week two of the meet. Front-running and stalking tactics have proven to be the most effective over longer distances.
On the turf course, tactical speed and mid-pack runners have demonstrated advantages over pure closers. The 36-foot rail position offers a fair racing surface without significant bias toward inside or outside posts.
Race 1 – Claiming Fillies and Mares 1 1/16 Miles
Post Time: 1:00 PM
This claiming event for fillies and mares features horses that have never won two races competing at 1 1/16 miles on dirt for a $30,000 claiming tag. The field of eight presents several logical contenders with established form at Churchill Downs and other regional tracks.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup appears moderate with Misty Muppet and Sweet Note likely to establish early position. Goldenageactress should sit a stalking trip just off the pace, positioning herself for a sustained run. The pace should be honest but not overly contested, favoring horses with tactical speed and closing ability.
Key Contenders
Goldenageactress draws significant support as the morning line favorite at 5-2. This Linda Rice trainee brings tactical speed and the services of Irad Ortiz Jr., currently one of the leading riders at the meet with 25 wins through mid-November. The three-year-old filly benefits from the post 5 draw, which has been the single most productive starting position at Churchill Downs. Rice has conditioned the filly for this spot, and the distance appears well within her scope.
Misty Muppet offers early speed and post-1 positioning under Gabriel Saez. The four-year-old mare has shown ability in similar company and should secure favorable early position. J. Kent Sweezey sends out a competitive runner here.
Sweet Note represents younger competition at just three years old, receiving a three-pound weight break. The Gavin Ashton mount from the Donald Habeeb barn brings improving form and tactical speed.
Secondary Choices
Onmywaytosavthday ships in for the David Jacobson barn with Cristian Torres aboard. This four-year-old filly has competed at Keeneland and brings experience at the mile and longer distances. The scratches history shows previous issues, but current form suggests readiness.
Don’t Look Back from the Cipriano Contreras barn represents a logical pace presser under Emmanuel Esquivel. At 8-1 on the morning line, this mare offers value if the pace collapses.
Longshots
Theoretically at 8-1 brings Michael Tomlinson training and Fernando De La Cruz riding. The three-year-old filly has room for improvement and the distance suits her pedigree.
Betting Strategy
Focus on exacta and trifecta combinations using Goldenageactress as a single or primary selection with Misty Muppet, Sweet Note, and Onmywaytosavthday underneath. The post position advantage for the favorite combined with top connections makes this a logical single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Goldenageactress
Place: Misty Muppet
Show: Sweet Note
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight 1 1/16 Miles
Post Time: 1:29 PM
This maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles on dirt features seven three-year-olds seeking their first victory. The $120,000 purse attracts quality connections with preference given to horses that have not started for less than $50,000 in their last three starts.
Pace Analysis
Publisher brings tactical speed and closing ability while Up Country should establish forward position early. The pace appears moderate to honest with several runners possessing early speed. The two-turn configuration favors horses with tactical versatility and late punch.
Key Contenders
Publisher represents the Steven Asmussen barn and draws Irad Ortiz Jr., a combination that wins consistently at Churchill Downs. This colt brings significant experience with 11 career starts including multiple placings in quality company. Recent efforts show improving form, and the two-turn mile suits his late-running style. Asmussen excels with maidens at Churchill Downs, and the post-6 position falls within the favorable statistical zone.
Up Country from the Brendan Walsh stable pairs with Luis Saez, another leading rider at the current meet. The three-year-old colt showed promise in his Churchill Downs debut, finishing second at this distance. Walsh has strong numbers at Churchill Downs during the Fall Meet, and Saez’s tactical riding provides confidence.
Crisis Manager represents the Thomas Amoss barn with Jose Ortiz aboard. This gelding brings experience from Oaklawn Park and shows improving form. The Ortiz brothers dominate the jockey standings at Churchill Downs, with Jose among the leaders in both wins and earnings.
Secondary Choices
Sixtyseven Mustang from the Doug Anderson barn offers tactical speed under Tyler Bacon. The gelding has shown consistency in recent starts at Churchill Downs and appears ready for a forward move.
Money Man brings extensive experience with 14 career starts and multiple place finishes. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount for the Destin Heath barn, and the gelding has shown ability at this distance.
Longshots
Chowser at 20-1 on the morning line ships in from Parx with solid place finishes in recent starts. Jorge Duarte Jr. trains, and Jaime Torres rides. The distance and class level represent questions.
Betting Strategy
Structure vertical wagers around Publisher and Up Country while including Crisis Manager in trifecta and superfecta combinations. The quality of top connections justifies using these horses as singles in multi-race sequences.
Selections
Win: Publisher
Place: Up Country
Show: Crisis Manager
Race 3 – Claiming 1 Mile
Post Time: 1:58 PM
This claiming race at one mile on dirt for $30,000 features nine three-year-olds and older that have never won two races. The competitive field offers several live contenders with recent form at Churchill Downs and regional tracks.
Pace Analysis
Morunning and Expect the Best both possess early speed and should contest the early fractions. Whiskey Shot brings tactical speed from the Rodolphe Brisset barn with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding. The pace should be honest with multiple speed horses ensuring legitimate fractions that favor stalkers and closers.
Key Contenders
Morunning draws the services of Florent Geroux for the Christopher Davis barn from the rail position. While post 1 has shown limited success at the mile distance at Churchill Downs, this gelding brings tactical speed to secure position. Recent workouts indicate readiness, and Geroux ranks among the reliable riders at the meet.
Expect the Best represents the Jose Francisco D’Angelo barn with Luis Saez aboard. The three-year-old gelding gets a two-pound weight allowance and brings improving form. Saez’s success rate at the current meet provides confidence, and the post-9 outside draw allows tactical options.
Whiskey Shot from the Rodolphe Brisset stable pairs with Irad Ortiz Jr., one of the most successful combinations at Churchill Downs. The three-year-old gets a weight allowance and brings quality breeding. Ortiz Jr. leads the jockey standings with 25 wins through mid-November.
Secondary Choices
Handsome Pants represents the Joe Sharp barn with Jose Ortiz riding. Sharp ranks among the leading trainers at the current meet, and the Ortiz combination wins at a high percentage. The gelding receives a weight allowance as a three-year-old.
Weaponized from the Riley Mott barn brings improving form under Jaime Torres. The three-year-old has shown ability at Churchill Downs in recent starts.
Longshots
Army Hero at 12-1 from the Steve Manley barn offers value under Francisco Arrieta. The four-year-old gelding has competed at similar levels and could benefit from a contested pace.
Betting Strategy
The competitive nature of this race suggests using multiple horses in horizontal wagers. Box exactas and trifectas with Morunning, Expect the Best, Whiskey Shot, and Handsome Pants. The mile distance at Churchill Downs has favored stalkers and closers during the current meet.
Selections
Win: Whiskey Shot
Place: Morunning
Show: Expect the Best
Race 4 – Turf Mile Claiming
Post Time: 2:27 PM
This claiming event at one mile on turf for $62,500 features 10 three-year-olds and older competing over the Churchill Downs turf course with the rail at 36 feet. The race includes a provision to move to the main dirt track if conditions warrant.
Pace Analysis
What Say Thee brings tactical speed under Luis Saez for the Michael Maker barn. Three Technique offers early speed from post 2, while Eye On Ry should sit mid-pack. The pace appears moderate with several horses possessing tactical speed, setting up for a sustained stretch run.
Key Contenders
What Say Thee represents the Michael Maker barn, one of the most successful turf trainers at Churchill Downs. Luis Saez provides tactical riding, and this seven-year-old gelding brings extensive grass experience. Maker excels at placing horses at proper levels, and the post-4 draw provides tactical flexibility. The gelding has competed successfully at Churchill Downs over turf.
Three Technique brings veteran experience as an eight-year-old horse under Rafael Bejarano for Jason Cook. This runner has shown consistency in similar company and should secure early position from post 2.
Eye On Ry from the Matthew Sims barn draws Luan Machado. The five-year-old gelding has competed at Indiana Grand and brings improving form to Churchill Downs.
Secondary Choices
Classic Legacy represents the Joe Sharp stable with Jose Ortiz riding. Sharp ranks among the leading trainers at the current meet, and Ortiz provides quality riding. The five-year-old horse brings experience at the distance.
Black Powder from Michael Maker’s barn offers a second entry with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Maker’s two-horse entry provides tactical flexibility, and Ortiz Jr. ranks as the leading jockey at the meet.
Longshots
Right to Win from Ireland ships in for the Lauren Robson barn with Julien Leparoux riding. The five-year-old gelding brings European turf breeding and experience.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the Michael Maker entries of What Say Thee and Black Powder while including Classic Legacy from the Sharp barn. Structure exactas and trifectas around these connections. The turf course at Churchill Downs has played fairly with the 36-foot rail position.
Selections
Win: What Say Thee
Place: Black Powder
Show: Classic Legacy
Race 5 – Six Furlong Sprint Claiming
Post Time: 2:57 PM
This claiming sprint at six furlongs on dirt for $20,000 features eight three-year-olds and older that have never won three races. The sprint distance and competitive field provide handicapping challenges with multiple logical contenders.
Pace Analysis
One True Shance and Farm Team both possess early speed and should contest the early lead. The pace appears quick with multiple front-runners ensuring fast fractions. Posts 4-6 have dominated sprint races at Churchill Downs during the Fall Meet, winning 49% of races. Stalkers positioned just off the pace have shown exceptional success.
Key Contenders
One True Shance from the Eddie Kenneally barn draws Luis Saez from post 7. The three-year-old gelding receives a four-pound weight allowance and brings tactical speed. Saez ranks among the leading jockeys at Churchill Downs with consistent success throughout the meet. The outside post provides options in a sprint field.
Farm Team represents the Joe Sharp stable with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding. Sharp leads the trainer standings at the current meet, and Ortiz Jr. tops the jockey standings with 25 wins. The four-year-old colt brings experience and class from the rail position. This combination wins at elite percentages at Churchill Downs.
Tiverton from Great Britain represents the Joe Sharp barn with Jose Ortiz aboard. The Sharp barn sends out two horses in this sprint, and both Ortiz brothers provide quality riding. The five-year-old gelding brings European breeding and tactical speed.
Secondary Choices
Graydaria from the Michael Tomlinson stable draws Jaime Torres from the favorable post-8 position. The three-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and brings improving form.
Gold Search represents the Gregory Foley barn under Adam Beschizza. The four-year-old gelding has competed at similar levels and offers value at the morning line.
Longshots
Rocket Hoss at 12-1 from the Joseph Davis barn brings tactical speed under Fernando De La Cruz. The five-year-old gelding could benefit from a contested pace scenario.
Betting Strategy
The Joe Sharp barn’s double entry of Farm Team and Tiverton demands respect given Sharp’s current success at Churchill Downs. Structure exactas using both Sharp horses with One True Shance. The post position statistics favor horses drawn in posts 4-6, but the quality connections overcome less favorable draws.
Selections
Win: Farm Team
Place: Tiverton
Show: One True Shance
Race 6 – Starter Allowance One Mile
Post Time: 3:26 PM
This starter allowance at one mile on dirt for horses that have started for a claiming price of $30,000 or less features 10 competitive three-year-olds and older. The field includes multiple horses with recent form at Churchill Downs and regional tracks.
Pace Analysis
Storm the Streets and Tyler’s Turn bring early speed while Sweetalkingbourbon should sit stalking position. The pace appears moderate to honest with several horses possessing tactical speed. The mile distance at Churchill Downs has favored posts 1-3 in recent weeks, with closers struggling to win.
Key Contenders
Sweetalkingbourbon from the Cherie DeVaux barn draws Jose Ortiz from post 9. The four-year-old gelding brings consistency in starter allowance company and benefits from Ortiz’s tactical riding. The post position provides options approaching the first turn, and recent form indicates readiness.
Protective represents the Matthew Sims barn with Luan Machado riding from post 10. The four-year-old gelding has competed at Keeneland in similar company and brings improving form. The outside post allows tactical flexibility.
Storm the Streets from Richard Dutrow Jr.’s barn pairs with Irad Ortiz Jr. The three-year-old gelding brings quality breeding and the services of the leading jockey at Churchill Downs. The post-3 inside draw aligns with successful patterns for mile races at the current meet.
Secondary Choices
Patton’s Tizzy from the Cipriano Contreras barn draws Emmanuel Esquivel from post 7. The four-year-old gelding has shown consistency at Churchill Downs and offers value.
Tyler’s Turn represents the Kenneth McPeek barn with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard. McPeek ranks among the leading trainers at Churchill Downs, and this three-year-old colt brings improving form.
Longshots
Farley Hall at 8-1 from the Steve Manley barn offers value under Francisco Arrieta from the rail position. The three-year-old gelding has competed at similar levels.
Betting Strategy
Focus on horses with inside to middle post positions given the statistical advantages for mile races at Churchill Downs. Structure exactas and trifectas using Sweetalkingbourbon, Protective, and Storm the Streets. The quality jockey connections provide confidence.
Selections
Win: Storm the Streets
Place: Sweetalkingbourbon
Show: Protective
Race 7 – Turf Route Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 3:55 PM
This maiden special weight at 1 1/8 miles on turf features 12 three-year-olds and older seeking their first victory. The $120,000 purse attracts quality runners with preference to horses that have not started for less than $50,000 in recent starts. The race includes a provision to move to dirt if turf conditions warrant.
Pace Analysis
Kicking Clear and Up Country’s stablemate Western Run bring tactical speed while Gold Sovereign should sit mid-pack. The large field ensures competitive fractions, and the two-turn configuration favors horses with tactical speed and sustained closing ability.
Key Contenders
Gold Sovereign represents the Chad Brown barn with Jose Ortiz aboard. Brown ranks among the elite turf trainers nationally, and Ortiz provides championship-caliber riding. The three-year-old gelding brings breeding that suggests turf aptitude, and Brown excels with grass maidens. The post-3 inside position provides tactical advantages in a 12-horse field.
Western Run from the Joe Sharp stable draws Irad Ortiz Jr. from post 10. Sharp leads the trainer standings at Churchill Downs, and Ortiz Jr. tops the jockey standings with 25 wins. The four-year-old gelding has competed at Churchill Downs in maiden company and brings experience at the distance.
Mr Bobo represents the Jeremiah O’Dwyer barn with Luan Machado riding from post 8. The four-year-old colt has shown steady improvement in maiden company and brings tactical versatility.
Secondary Choices
Bessamay from Brian Lynch’s barn draws Francisco Arrieta from post 9. The three-year-old colt has competed at Churchill Downs and brings breeding that suggests turf aptitude.
Kicking Clear represents Brendan Walsh with Luis Saez riding from the far outside post 12. Walsh ranks among successful trainers at Churchill Downs, and Saez provides quality riding. The outside post presents challenges in a large field.
Longshots
Elko County at 15-1 from the Michael Maker barn brings turf breeding and Julien Leparoux riding. Maker excels with grass horses, and the four-year-old colt offers value if the pace setup develops favorably.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the Chad Brown and Joe Sharp entries given their dominance at Churchill Downs during the current meet. Structure exactas and trifectas using Gold Sovereign and Western Run with Mr Bobo and Bessamay. The large field suggests boxing multiple horses in superfecta wagers.
Selections
Win: Gold Sovereign
Place: Western Run
Show: Mr Bobo
Race 8 – Six Furlong Sprint Claiming
Post Time: 4:25 PM
This claiming sprint at six furlongs on dirt for $62,500 features 10 three-year-olds and older. The competitive field includes multiple horses with recent form at Churchill Downs. This race begins the Late Pick 3 with a low 15% takeout.
Pace Analysis
Mr Skylight and Kavod bring early speed while Goodasiwonswas should sit stalking position. The pace appears contested with multiple front-runners ensuring fast fractions. Posts 4-6 have dominated sprint races at Churchill Downs during the Fall Meet, and stalkers have shown exceptional success winning 54% of races in week two.
Key Contenders
Mr Skylight from the Riley Mott barn draws Jaime Torres from the favorable post-7 position. The four-year-old colt brings tactical speed and recent form at Churchill Downs. Mott has shown consistent training at the meet, and the post position allows tactical options.
Goodasiwonswas represents the Michael Maker barn with Gabriel Saez riding from post 6. Maker excels at placing horses at proper claiming levels, and the post-6 position falls within the statistical sweet spot for Churchill Downs sprints. The six-year-old gelding brings experience.
Augusta Melody from the Robertino Diodoro barn draws Cristian Torres from post 3. The eight-year-old gelding brings veteran experience and consistency in claiming sprints.
Secondary Choices
Kavod from the Joe Sharp stable pairs with Luis Saez from post 5. Sharp leads the trainer standings, and Saez provides quality riding. The post-5 position has been the most productive at Churchill Downs during the Fall Meet.
Finster represents the David Jacobson barn with Jose Ortiz riding from post 4. The post-4 position aligns with successful patterns, and Ortiz ranks among the leading jockeys.
Longshots
Lunar Module at 8-1 from the Norm Casse barn brings Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard from post 10. Casse trains quality horses, and Ortiz Jr. leads the jockey standings. The five-year-old gelding offers value.
Betting Strategy
Focus on horses drawn in posts 4-7 given the statistical advantages during the current meet. Structure exactas using Mr Skylight and Goodasiwonswas while including Kavod and Finster in trifecta combinations. This race anchors the Late Pick 3 sequence.
Selections
Win: Mr Skylight
Place: Goodasiwonswas
Show: Kavod
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs
Post Time: 4:55 PM
This allowance optional claiming sprint at six furlongs on dirt features nine competitive horses for a $134,000 purse. The field includes quality runners with tactical speed and closing ability.
Pace Analysis
Keep It Easy and Taylor’s Version bring early speed while Thoughtthatcounts should sit stalking position. The pace appears moderate to honest with tactical speed horses controlling fractions. The post position advantages for sprints at Churchill Downs favor posts 4-6.
Key Contenders
Thoughtthatcounts from the David Jacobson barn draws Luan Machado from the favorable post-4 position. The four-year-old gelding brings consistent form in allowance company and benefits from the statistical advantage of post 4. Jacobson has multiple runners on today’s card showing stable form.
One Nine Hundred represents Thomas Morley with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding from post 9. The three-year-old colt brings quality breeding and the services of the leading jockey at Churchill Downs. Ortiz Jr.’s 25 wins lead the jockey standings at the current meet.
Echo Again from the Norm Casse barn pairs with Jose Ortiz from post 7. Both Casse and Ortiz rank among the leaders at Churchill Downs, and the five-year-old gelding brings consistency in allowance company.
Secondary Choices
Eglise represents the Michael Maker barn with Luis Saez aboard from post 6. Maker excels at placing horses properly, and Saez provides championship riding. The post-6 position falls within the favorable statistical zone.
Taylor’s Version from Dale Romans’ barn draws Vincent Cheminaud from post 8. Romans trains quality horses, and the three-year-old colt brings improving form.
Longshots
Keep It Easy at 15-1 from the Dale Romans stable offers value under Corey Lanerie. The three-year-old colt brings early speed and could benefit if controlling easy fractions.
Betting Strategy
Focus on horses drawn in posts 4-7 while respecting quality connections. Structure exactas using Thoughtthatcounts and One Nine Hundred with Echo Again and Eglise. The allowance level ensures competitive horses throughout the field.
Selections
Win: Thoughtthatcounts
Place: One Nine Hundred
Show: Echo Again
Race 10 – Two-Year-Old Maiden Special Weight One Mile
Post Time: 5:24 PM
This maiden special weight at one mile on dirt features 15 two-year-old colts seeking their first victory for a $120,000 purse. The large field includes quality breeding and top connections with preference given to horses that have not started for less than $50,000.
Pace Analysis
Chip Honcho and Phila Street bring tactical speed while several others possess early foot. The large field ensures competitive fractions over the two-turn mile. The Brad Cox barn sends out multiple runners providing tactical options.
Key Contenders
Chip Honcho represents the Steven Asmussen barn with Jose Ortiz riding from post 2. Asmussen ranks among elite trainers nationally, and Ortiz provides championship riding. The two-year-old colt brings quality breeding and the inside post position aligns with successful patterns for mile races at Churchill Downs. Asmussen excels with juvenile horses.
Phila Street from the Brad Cox stable draws Irad Ortiz Jr. from post 9. Cox ranks among the leading trainers at Churchill Downs during the Fall Meet, and Ortiz Jr. tops the jockey standings with 25 wins. The combination wins at elite percentages at Churchill Downs. The two-year-old colt brings quality breeding suggesting aptitude for the mile distance.
Fuzzbuster represents the Victoria Oliver barn with Cristian Torres aboard from post 12. The two-year-old colt brings tactical speed and breeding that suggests one-mile ability.
Secondary Choices
Prince of Light from Brendan Walsh’s barn pairs with Luis Saez from post 8. Walsh ranks among successful trainers at Churchill Downs, and Saez provides quality riding. The two-year-old colt shows breeding for the distance.
Stable Hero from the Randy Morse barn draws Luan Machado from post 3. The inside post provides tactical advantages in a large field.
Longshots
Corona de Oro at 10-1 from the Dallas Stewart barn brings Julien Leparoux riding. Stewart trains quality juveniles, and the two-year-old colt offers value.
Betting Strategy
The large 15-horse field demands spreading in horizontal wagers. Focus on the Asmussen and Cox entries given their dominance with two-year-olds at Churchill Downs. Structure exactas using Chip Honcho and Phila Street while boxing multiple horses in trifecta and superfecta wagers. The inside post positions have shown advantages in mile races during the current meet.
Selections
Win: Chip Honcho
Place: Phila Street
Show: Prince of Light
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. leads the Churchill Downs Fall Meet jockey standings with 25 wins through mid-November, demonstrating exceptional consistency across multiple race types. The championship rider excels with tactical speed horses and shows patience in route races. Ortiz Jr. has live mounts in Races 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, and 10, providing multiple opportunities throughout the card.
Jose Ortiz ranks second in both wins and earnings at the current Churchill Downs meet with 11 victories and over $741,000 in purse earnings. The rider shows particular strength in route races and turf events. Jose has quality mounts in Races 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10, offering consistent opportunities.
Luis Saez brings championship experience with six wins and strong in-the-money percentages at the current meet. Saez excels with tactical speed horses and demonstrates aggressive riding style. Quality mounts appear in Races 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 10.
Gabriel Saez, Luan Machado, and Jaime Torres round out the leading riders at Churchill Downs during the Fall Meet. Torres shows consistency with 49 starts while Machado demonstrates tactical versatility across multiple distances.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Joe Sharp leads the Churchill Downs Fall Meet trainer standings with multiple wins and strong earnings. Sharp excels with claiming horses and shows particular strength in sprint races. The barn sends out live contenders in Races 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8, demonstrating depth across the card.
Steven Asmussen ranks among elite trainers nationally and brings quality horses to Churchill Downs. Asmussen shows exceptional success with maiden special weight races and juvenile horses. Strong entries appear in Races 2 and 10.
Brad Cox dominates major stakes races nationally and brings quality depth to Churchill Downs cards. Cox shows particular strength with two-year-olds and route horses. The barn has multiple entries in Race 10.
Michael Maker excels with turf horses and demonstrates skill at placing horses properly in claiming company. Maker sends out contenders in Races 4, 7, and 8, showing versatility across surfaces.
Thomas Amoss, Brendan Walsh, and Norm Casse round out successful trainers at the current Churchill Downs meet with consistent form and quality horses across multiple race types.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Derby City Six Jackpot carryover of $1,543,419 beginning in Race 5 presents exceptional value for players willing to spread in the mandatory payout pool. Focus on using multiple horses in Races 5 through 10 while concentrating on top connections from the Sharp, Asmussen, and Cox barns.
The Late Pick 3 beginning in Race 8 with a low 15% takeout offers value compared to traditional 20-25% takeouts. Structure tickets using Mr Skylight and Goodasiwonswas in Race 8, spreading wider in Race 9, then focusing on Chip Honcho and Phila Street in Race 10.
Single race betting should focus on races with clear class distinctions and superior connections. Race 2 with Publisher, Race 5 with Farm Team, Race 7 with Gold Sovereign, and Race 10 with Chip Honcho offer logical win betting opportunities based on connections and post positions.
Post position plays merit attention in sprint races given the statistical dominance of posts 4-6 during the Fall Meet. Horses drawn in these positions have won 49% of dirt sprints through the first two weeks. Races 5, 8, and 9 present opportunities to leverage this bias.
Exacta and trifecta boxes using horses from leading trainers Sharp, Asmussen, and Cox paired with top jockeys Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, and Saez provide solid value throughout the card. The combination of elite connections overcomes less favorable post positions and pace scenarios.
Daily double opportunities connecting races with clear favorites to competitive fields offer value. Linking Race 2 Publisher to wider coverage in Race 3, or Race 7 Gold Sovereign spreading into Race 8 provides balanced risk-reward ratios.
Place and show betting on favorites with elite connections in maiden special weight races offers conservative value given the competitive nature of first-time winners. Races 2, 7, and 10 present opportunities for this strategy.
