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The Friday card at Delta Downs features a mix of maiden special weights and claiming events, highlighted by several Louisiana-bred contests that showcase the local breeding industry. The 9-race program kicks off at 4:45 PM CST. The spotlight today falls on the 8th race, a $28,000 Starter Allowance for fillies and mares, where top connections clash in a 5-furlong sprint.
Handicappers should pay close attention to the “Veterinarian” scratches noted in the recent past performances for several key runners, particularly in the 2-year-old maiden races, as these returning runners often present high risk/reward scenarios.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast for Vinton, LA: Expect typical December conditions with cool temperatures in the evening. The track is likely to be Fast.
Surface Notes: Delta Downs features a 6-furlong oval with a mix of sand, clay, and limestone. This composition generally handles moisture well, but the “bullring” configuration makes it extremely sensitive to bias.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
- 5 Furlongs (Dirt): This is the most bias-sensitive distance at Delta Downs. The short run to the turn makes the inside posts (1-3) and early speed absolutely critical. Horses stuck in wide posts (7-10) often face an insurmountable ground-loss disadvantage unless they have superior gate speed to clear the field.
- 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt): While speed is still dangerous, the chute start allows for a slightly fairer run down the backstretch. Stalkers can win here, but wide trips around the tight turns are often fatal. The “Golden Rail” is often in effect; watch early races to see if the inside path is holding.
Race 1
Post Time: 04:45 PM CST
Distance: 5 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Maiden Special Weight (2YO Fillies)
Pace Analysis: A sprint for juvenile fillies where gate speed is paramount. One Mo Birdie and Woodall Pass show signs of early foot. In 5-furlong races at Delta, the horse that breaks on top often stays there.
Key Contenders
Maggies Mission (PP 1): Draws the coveted rail spot. For a 2-year-old in a bullring sprint, this is half the battle. If she breaks clean, the rail advantage could carry her to the wire.
One Mo Birdie (PP 2): Draws alongside the rail horse and gets the services of Julio Ramirez Jr., a solid local pilot. Likely to press the pace from the break.
Secondary Choices
Woodall Pass (PP 4): Trainer Chasey Deville Pomier is effective with young horses. The post position is neutral, allowing Elio Barrera to see how the break unfolds before committing.
Longshots
Shining Away (PP 8): Stuck in the parking lot. Will need a massive break to clear the field before the turn, which is a tough ask for a young maiden.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the inside speed. A Win bet on Maggies Mission if the odds stay above 5/2.
Selections:
Win: Maggies Mission
Place: One Mo Birdie
Show: Woodall Pass
Race 2
Post Time: 05:15 PM CST
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $5,000 (LA Bred)
Pace Analysis: The added distance usually helps stalkers, but this low-level claiming field may lack deep closers. Goldzone and Takeittothehouse should control the tempo.
Key Contenders
Takeittothehouse (PP 2): The combination of jockey Vicente Del-Cid and trainer Eduardo Ramirez is dangerous. Del-Cid is a dominant force at Delta and excels at putting horses in winning positions early.
Goldzone (PP 1): Gets the rail and Kevin Roman. The inside draw at 6.5 furlongs allows for a ground-saving trip. If the pace heats up outside, she can sit the trip and pounce.
Secondary Choices
Call Me Susan (PP 8): Draws wide, which is a disadvantage, but Alexander Castillo is a capable rider. Will need to avoid getting hung 4-wide on the first turn.
Won Bright Light (PP 7): Trainer Isai Gonzalez is having a respectable meet. Joel Dominguez takes the mount, but the post is tricky.
Betting Strategy
Takeittothehouse looks like the class of the field. A solid Win bet.
Selections:
Win: Takeittothehouse
Place: Goldzone
Show: Call Me Susan
Race 3
Post Time: 05:43 PM CST
Distance: 5 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Maiden Special Weight (LA Bred)
Pace Analysis: Ev’s Spirit is the one to catch. With high-percentage connections, expect aggressive handling from the gate.
Key Contenders
Ev’s Spirit (PP 1): The horse to beat. Trainer Allen Landry is a powerhouse at Delta Downs (recently winning the training title with 26% wins), and he pairs with Jansen Melancon. The rail draw is the cherry on top.
Open Parole (PP 3): Ridden by veteran David Cohen. Draws well and should be in the mix early.
Secondary Choices
Cut N Dancer (PP 7): Note: Scratched by the Vet on Nov 8. This 6-week layoff is a concern, but usually indicates the horse needed time. Use caution.
Ex Gonna (PP 2): Another one coming off a Vet scratch (Nov 22). The inside post helps, but the health question mark is significant.
Betting Strategy
Ev’s Spirit is a potential single in multi-race wagers given the Landry/Rail combination.
Selections:
Win: Ev’s Spirit
Place: Open Parole
Show: One Fancy Lady
Race 4
Post Time: 06:11 PM CST
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Class: Claiming $5,000 (LA Bred)
Pace Analysis: The two-turn mile at Delta is a different beast. Positioning into the first turn is vital. Mo Vista and Triple Four may vie for the lead.
Key Contenders
Mo Vista (PP 5): The Ramirez/Ramirez (Julio/Julio) connection. 3-year-olds often have more upside than the older mares in these conditions.
Triple Four (PP 2): A 5-year-old mare who should appreciate the inside draw. Consistent performer at this level.
Secondary Choices
Miss Cheese Bread (PP 4): Trainer Allen Landry sends this one out. Even if the form looks average, Landry’s horses must be respected at Delta. Casey Fusilier takes the call.
Betting Strategy
Box the top three in an Exacta.
Selections:
Win: Mo Vista
Place: Miss Cheese Bread
Show: Triple Four
Race 5
Post Time: 06:39 PM CST
Distance: 5 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Maiden Claiming $10,000
Pace Analysis: A messy maiden claiming field. Mischievous Smile and Zong’s to Blame likely show speed.
Key Contenders
Mischievous Smile (PP 5): Kevin Roman riding for Hance Robbins. This horse fits well at this level and the mid-pack post allows for options.
About the Business (PP 2): Note the “Also-Eligible” scratches in late November. This suggests the horse has been ready to run but couldn’t get in. Now in the main body with Melancon up. A serious threat.
Secondary Choices
Senor Smoke (PP 6): Vicente Del-Cid aboard. Any time Del-Cid rides a maiden claimer, you have to look twice. The horse was an Also-Eligible on Dec 12, so he’s fresh.
Betting Strategy
About the Business offers good value coming off the AE list.
Selections:
Win: About the Business
Place: Senor Smoke
Show: Mischievous Smile
Race 6
Post Time: 07:04 PM CST
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $4,000 (Conditional)
Pace Analysis: Blaze On and Sunny San Leon have shown flashes of speed. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
Sunny San Leon (PP 7): Vicente Del-Cid rides for Jayde Gelner. The outside post is less of an issue for a horse with tactical speed in a 6.5f race, but Del-Cid will need to be aggressive.
Blaze On (PP 2): Tim Dixon trains, Thomas Pompell rides. Inside draw helps.
Secondary Choices
Be Bo (PP 8): Note: Scratched Vet on Nov 19. The outside post (8) is a major hurdle at this distance. Fade unless odds are high.
Betting Strategy
Pass or play lightly.
Selections:
Win: Sunny San Leon
Place: Blaze On
Show: Easy Bet
Race 7
Post Time: 07:32 PM CST
Distance: 5 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $5,000
Pace Analysis: Speed, speed, speed. Serrano’s Warrior from the rail must go.
Key Contenders
One Last Thing (PP 2): Joel Dominguez/Isai Gonzalez. Draws inside speed and should sit the perfect trip just behind the rail horse.
Otter Creek (PP 7): A 3-year-old facing older horses. Sometimes the youth advantage pays off in late-season claimers.
Secondary Choices
Baby’s Last Dance (PP 5): Coming off a Stewards Scratch on Nov 15. Jocelyn Edison rides light (112 lbs). Could be a price play.
Betting Strategy
One Last Thing to win.
Selections:
Win: One Last Thing
Place: Otter Creek
Show: Serrano’s Warrior
Race 8 (Feature)
Post Time: 08:00 PM CST
Distance: 5 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Starter Allowance
Pace Analysis: High-quality speed duel expected. Won Day and Sienna Breeze are the class.
Key Contenders
Won Day (PP 8): The Horse to Beat. Features the lethal combination of Timothy Thornton (Leading Jockey) and Allen Landry (Leading Trainer). Despite the outside post, Thornton is a master at navigating this track. The class relief (Starter Allowance) suits her perfectly.
Sienna Breeze (PP 7): A classy 8-year-old mare. Warning: She was a Vet scratch at Fair Grounds on Dec 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming). The drop to Starter Allowance is logical, but the scratch is a red flag. If she’s 100%, she’s the main threat.
Secondary Choices
Pip Squeek (PP 1): Draws the rail. If the top two get tangled up wide, she can steal it on the fence.
Madelyn’s Hit (PP 4): Vicente Del-Cid rides. Never ignore Del-Cid in a feature race.
Betting Strategy
Won Day is the strongest play on the card.
Selections:
Win: Won Day
Place: Sienna Breeze
Show: Pip Squeek
Race 9
Post Time: 08:28 PM CST
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Class: Claiming $4,000
Pace Analysis: A slow-paced grinding affair for the nightcap.
Key Contenders
Changing Times (PP 6): Trained by Jonathan Wong, who hits at a high percentage. David Cohen rides. Note: Vet scratch on Nov 8. Returns at the bottom level. If sound, he wins this by lengths.
Deanos Cape (PP 2): An 8-year-old veteran. Knows the track and gets Kevin Roman.
Secondary Choices
Barbacoa (PP 4): Was an Also-Eligible on Nov 25. Jansen Melancon rides. A steady grinder.
Betting Strategy
Changing Times is a risky but high-upside win bet.
Selections:
Win: Changing Times
Place: Deanos Cape
Show: Barbacoa
Jockey Notes and Insights
- Timothy Thornton: The dominant rider at Delta Downs. He is aggressive out of the gate, which fits the track profile perfectly. His mounts on Won Day (R8) should be heavily backed.
- Vicente Del-Cid: A neck-and-neck rival with Thornton for the title. He excels on speed horses and is particularly dangerous on Takeittothehouse (R2) and Sunny San Leon (R6).
- Jansen Melancon: Often flies under the radar but teams up effectively with top trainer Allen Landry. Watch for him on Ev’s Spirit (R3).
Trainer Notes and Insights
- Allen Landry: Coming off a training title, Landry’s barn is firing on all cylinders. He places his horses aggressively. His entries in Race 3 (Ev’s Spirit) and Race 8 (Won Day) look like “intended” winners.
- Isai V. Gonzalez: A high-volume trainer who wins with claimers. His horses often improve in their second start off a claim.
- Jonathan Wong: A high-percentage trainer. When he drops a horse like Changing Times (R9) to the bottom claiming level, it’s usually a “win or claim” move.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
- Best Bet: Race 8 – Won Day. The Thornton/Landry connection in a Starter Allowance is the gold standard at this track.
- Best Value: Race 5 – About the Business. Coming off the Also-Eligible list often signals a horse that is sharp and ready to run but couldn’t get a spot.
- Pick 3 Play (Races 1-3):
- R1: 1, 2
- R2: 2
- R3: 1
- Cost: Low-cost ticket keying the Landry/Ramirez favorites.
- Track Bias Angle: In Race 1 and Race 3 (both 5 furlongs), bet the rail horses (Maggies Mission and Ev’s Spirit) to Win. The inside post win percentage at this distance is statistically significant.
