Delta Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 25, 2025

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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Today’s card at Delta Downs features a special afternoon program with eight thoroughbred races, including the $100,000 My Trusty Cat Stakes for two-year-old fillies. This is one of two daytime cards offered during Thanksgiving week, with an unprecedented 10% takeout on all wagers across all pools, providing horseplayers with a rare opportunity for maximum value. First post is scheduled for 12:55 PM CT.

The card includes a mix of maiden claiming events, claiming races, and the featured stakes race in Race 7. Several trainers are sending out multiple contenders, and key jockeys will aim to take advantage of the reduced takeout promotion. Pay close attention to late scratches, as several horses are on the scratch watch list, including horses in Races 3, 4, 7, and 8.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Today’s weather in Vinton, Louisiana calls for mostly sunny skies with highs near 77°F and a slight chance of morning thunderstorms. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph with humidity remaining manageable. Conditions should produce a fast main track surface ideal for front-running types. Tonight will turn cooler with lows in the lower 50s as a cold front approaches.​

The track has been racing fast throughout the current meet with no significant moisture expected during the racing program. Speed figures generated on fast tracks should translate well for horses with established form at Delta Downs.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Delta Downs is a relatively short track with a short stretch run that historically favors frontrunners, particularly during the early part of the racing season. Recent statistics from the current meet reveal important patterns that should inform wagering decisions.​

At five furlongs on dirt, 39% of winners have been wire-to-wire types, with the best running style being early speed (E) and the outside posts showing slight advantage. At seven furlongs on dirt, 34% of winners have led from start to finish, with early pace (E) again being the dominant style and rail/inside posts performing better. For six and a half furlong races, the wire-to-wire percentage typically drops to around 22% with pressing types (P) having better success from outside positions.​

The inside post has historically been the most profitable draw at Delta Downs, though stall six has also proven useful for handicappers. Posts 4, 5, and 7 have traditionally produced fewer winners, though field sizes averaging nine runners create fairly even distribution across the board.​


Race 1: Maiden Claiming $10,000

Post Time: 12:55 PM CT

Six and a half furlongs on dirt for maidens, fillies and mares three years old and upward. Purse: $16,500.

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse field lacks dominant early speed, creating potential for a moderate tempo. La Picosita (7) and Custom V K W (5) have shown some early foot in their previous outings but neither is a confirmed wire-to-wire type. Expect contested early fractions with the race potentially setting up for those with tactical speed who can secure position entering the far turn.

Key Contenders

Perfect Deal (2) emerges as the morning line favorite at 1.80-1 for trainer Allen Landry with Carlos Perez riding. This three-year-old filly has shown steady improvement in her recent starts and gets the inside post advantage at a track where the rail performs well. Landry represents one of the top conditioners at the current meet and places his horses effectively at this level.​

Run Reckless Run (1) shows as the second choice at 3-1 for trainer Tony J. Richey with Vicente Del-Cid aboard. Del-Cid has dominated the current meet with 45 wins from 156 mounts, more than doubling any other rider’s total at a 27% win rate. His presence on any horse immediately elevates its chances, and the rail draw further enhances this filly’s prospects.​

Secondary Choices

Delphine (9) for trainer Isai V. Gonzalez at 6-1 carries the most weight in the field at 124 pounds as a five-year-old mare. Joel Dominguez takes the mount, and this runner shows competitive form in recent outings with placing possibilities.

Surprise Sunrise (8) trained by Phillip Mark Dison at 6-1 deserves consideration as a four-year-old filly dropping in class with Kelvin Arana riding. The outside post could prove disadvantageous at this distance.

Kisses for Cooper (4) appears on the also-eligible list and may not draw into the race, but if scratches occur, this Henry Flugence trainee could factor at 6-1.​

Longshots

Night Tizzy (6) at 15-1 for trainer Linda Beene with Alexander Castillo aboard has shown some improved figures recently as a five-year-old mare. The price could offer value if she finds the right trip.

Custom V K W (5) and La Picosita (7) are priced at 20-1 and carry apprentice jockeys, making them unlikely winners but possible exotic candidates if pace scenarios unfold favorably.

Selections

Win: Perfect Deal (2)
Place: Run Reckless Run (1)
Show: Delphine (9)


Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (Louisiana Bred)

Post Time: 1:23 PM CT

Seven furlongs on dirt for Louisiana-bred three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races. Purse: $18,000.

Pace Analysis

This field contains several horses with tactical speed who should produce honest early fractions. Night Stick (7) has shown the ability to press the pace and won at seven furlongs last out at Louisiana Downs. Aller Vite (2) is a mid-pack stalker who should sit a favorable trip just off the leaders. The seven-furlong distance tends to favor horses who can rate and produce a late kick.

Key Contenders

Midnight Halo (4) enters as the 2.50-1 morning line favorite for trainer Joseph M. Foster with Timothy Thornton riding. This four-year-old gelding shows a fastest closer running style with extensive experience, having earned over $166,000 in career earnings. Thornton has been riding at a 31% win rate during the current meet with 65% of mounts hitting the board. Note that this horse appears on the also-eligible list and must draw into the race.​

Aller Vite (2) at 3.50-1 for trainer Russell C. Richard with Thomas L. Pompell aboard has finished in the money in recent outings at this distance. This colt shows a mid-pack stalking style that plays well at seven furlongs when the pace is honest.​

Night Stick (7) at 4.50-1 trained by Joseph M. Foster with Alexander Castillo riding represents a logical contender who won at seven furlongs at Louisiana Downs last out. The trainer doubles up in this race with Midnight Halo, suggesting confidence in his stable’s readiness for this condition.​

Secondary Choices

Strong Prospect (6) at 5-1 for trainer Samuel Breaux with Vicente Del-Cid up brings the meet’s leading rider to a horse with tactical speed and recent competitive form. The Del-Cid factor cannot be ignored.​

My Dad’s Guitar (9) at 8-1 trained by Edith A. Mojica gets elite rider Paco Lopez, who has been picking up mounts at Delta Downs while serving a HISA suspension that Louisiana does not recognize. Lopez was the leading rider at both Monmouth Park and Colonial Downs before his suspension.​

Longshots

Hudson’s Day (3) at 8-1 for trainer Carl J. Woodley shows versatility with two wins from twelve starts and could offer value from a tactical position. Canal St. Cupid (8) at 12-1 represents a price play with some recent placing efforts.

Selections

Win: Midnight Halo (1)
Place: Aller Vite (2)
Show: Night Stick (7)


Race 3: Maiden Claiming $10,000 (Louisiana Bred)

Post Time: 1:51 PM CT

Five furlongs on dirt for Louisiana-bred maidens, three years old and upward. Purse: $18,000.

Pace Analysis

This large twelve-horse field features several horses with early speed inclinations. Straight Dropbilly (3) and Jusasteeledreamer (8) have shown front-running tendencies, while Valid Deelite (10) displays the fastest closing style in the field. At five furlongs, wire-to-wire winners comprise 39% of races during this meet, favoring early speed. Expect a fast early pace with the rail and outside posts showing advantage.​

Key Contenders

He’s Ready to Win (9) commands the 2-1 morning line for trainer Brett A. Brinkman with Thomas L. Pompell riding. This three-year-old colt has finished third twice in his last two starts at Delta Downs and represents a consistent barn. Brinkman has been one of the leading trainers at the current meet with a 22% win rate.​

Severus Squall (2) at 3.50-1 for trainer Lee Thomas with Carlos Lozada aboard shows a fast closing style with a 75% strike rate for hitting the board in four career starts. Thomas has demonstrated excellent form at Delta Downs with a 21% win rate during the current meet.​

Valid Deelite (10) at 5-1 trained by Juan A. Larrosa with Kevin Roman riding displays the fastest closing style in the field and has hit the board in both career starts. The sprint distance and potential hot early pace could set up perfectly for this closer.​

Secondary Choices

Senor Smoke (5) at 6-1 gets Vicente Del-Cid for trainer Eduardo Ramirez. Del-Cid’s presence adds significant value to any runner, and Ramirez has been winning at a 16% rate at the current meet.​

High Adventure (4) at 8-1 for trainer Jorge Lara shows a fast stalking style but appears on the Stewards list for potential scratching. If cleared to run, this horse offers value at morning line odds.​

About the Business (12) at 10-1 for trainer Antonio Alberto with Jansen Melancon riding has hit the board in six of fourteen career starts. Melancon has been riding at a 12% win rate with 42% of mounts hitting the board.​

Longshots

Lifelike (1) at 12-1 and Jusasteeledreamer (8) at 12-1 offer deep closer value in a race that figures to produce hot early fractions.

Selections

Win: He’s Ready to Win (9)
Place: Severus Squall (2)
Show: Valid Deelite (10)


Race 4: Claiming $5,000

Post Time: 2:19 PM CT

Six and a half furlongs on dirt for three-year-olds and upward which have never won two races. Purse: $13,500.

Pace Analysis

This twelve-horse field features several speed types who will contest the early lead. The distance at six and a half furlongs historically produces fewer wire-to-wire winners (22%) at Delta Downs, with pressing types performing well from outside posts. Expect a moderate to honest early pace with late runners having an opportunity to close.​

Key Contenders

Donegal Dreamer (5) emerges as the 2.50-1 favorite for trainer Dane Noel with Kevin Roman riding. This four-year-old gelding shows consistent form at this level and should benefit from a pressing trip just off the pace.​

Brilliant Call (2) at 3.50-1 for trainer Isai V. Gonzalez with meet leader Vicente Del-Cid aboard represents a strong play. Del-Cid’s exceptional 27% win rate during the current meet combined with the inside post advantage makes this runner a serious threat.​

Unshakeable Proof (11) at 4.50-1 for trainer Jonathan Wong with Paco Lopez riding brings together elite connections. Wong has been running horses at a 40% win rate during the current meet, and Lopez adds significant value despite his minimal mounts at Delta Downs.​

Secondary Choices

Flame Rock Fire (12) at 5-1 trained by Jose M. Camejo with Alexander Castillo aboard shows competitive form in recent outings. The outside post could work in this runner’s favor at this distance.

Grand Sam (6) at 5-1 for trainer Desmond Fogarty with Joel Dominguez riding represents value from a tactical stalking position.

Ru Mor Starter (3) at 6-1 appears on the also-eligible list and may not draw into the race, but David Cardoso takes the mount for trainer Mark N. Hibdon if entered.

Longshots

Wicked Punches (10) at 8-1 for trainer Samuel Breaux with Carlos Perez aboard also appears on the also-eligible list but could offer value if drawing into the field.

Selections

Win: Donegal Dreamer (5)
Place: Brilliant Call (2)
Show: Unshakeable Proof (11)


Race 5: Claiming $5,000 (Louisiana Bred Fillies and Mares)

Post Time: 2:47 PM CT

Five furlongs on dirt for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races. Purse: $14,000.

Pace Analysis

At five furlongs, speed dominates at Delta Downs with 39% of winners going wire-to-wire during the current meet. This field features several early speed types including Getoutofdaway (1), Wings of a Sparrow (4), and Call Me Susan (5). Expect a contested early pace that could set up for horses with tactical speed who can inherit the lead in the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Getoutofdaway (1) commands the 2.50-1 morning line for trainer Ronnie Averett with Vicente Del-Cid riding. This four-year-old filly draws the rail, which historically produces winners at Delta Downs, and gets the meet’s leading rider.​

Sister Ella (2) at 3.50-1 for trainer Isai V. Gonzalez with Joel Dominguez aboard shows consistent placing form at this level. The inside posts provide an advantage at five furlongs.

Wings of a Sparrow (4) at 4-1 trained by Miguel Garcia with Timothy Thornton riding represents a talented three-year-old filly with a tactical speed style that could factor if she breaks cleanly.

Secondary Choices

Jenny’s Day (8) at 6-1 for trainer Dane Noel with Juan P. Vargas riding shows consistent form and could benefit from an honest early pace.

Call Me Susan (5) at 8-1 trained by Antonio Alberto with Alexander Castillo aboard has early speed that could carry her far at five furlongs.

Wicked Sailor (12) at 10-1 for trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr. with Jansen Melancon riding offers value from the outside post with closing ability.

Longshots

Clever Race (10) at 10-1 with apprentice Jocelyn Edison aboard carries the lightest weight in the field at 113 pounds for trainer Thomas W. Nixon. The weight advantage could prove significant at this distance.

Nownowdancer (6) appears on the also-eligible list at 20-1 and would need scratches to draw into the race.

Selections

Win: Getoutofdaway (1)
Place: Sister Ella (2)
Show: Wings of a Sparrow (4)


Race 6: Maiden Claiming $50,000

Post Time: 3:15 PM CT

Six and a half furlongs on dirt for maiden two-year-old fillies. Purse: $30,000.

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse field features several first-time starters and lightly raced juveniles. Gatsbys greenlight (4) shows a mid-pack closing style from her previous starts, while Well Received (8) makes her debut for the powerful Jonathan Wong barn. At six and a half furlongs, pressing types have historically performed well from outside positions during the current meet.

Key Contenders

Ry Ry (2) enters as the 2.50-1 favorite for trainer Brett A. Brinkman with Carlos Perez riding. Brinkman has established strong form at Delta Downs with multiple winners at this meet, and this two-year-old filly should benefit from the inside post position.​

Lost Art (6) at 3.50-1 for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez with Kevin Roman aboard shows potential after limited racing experience. Ramirez-Rodriguez has been competitive at the meet.

Gatsbys greenlight (4) at 4.50-1 trained by Carl J. Woodley with Timothy Thornton riding shows a mid-pack closing style with a third-place finish in her debut. The blinkers addition could spark improvement.​

Secondary Choices

Well Received (8) at 6-1 for trainer Jonathan Wong with David Cohen riding makes her career debut. Wong has been running horses at a remarkable 48% win rate during the current meet with 78% of runners hitting the board. First-time starters from this barn deserve serious respect.​

Taylors Wonder (1) at 8-1 for trainer Scott Gelner with apprentice Jamison Mudd aboard gets a weight break and draws the advantageous rail position.

Rockin’ Lilith (5) at 8-1 for trainer Vonn Mallery lacks Lasix and gets apprentice Javier Antonio Hernandez. This debut runner could offer value at morning line odds.

Longshots

Parkin Lot Party (3) at 12-1 trained by Eric Ramaekers with Thomas L. Pompell riding shows a mid-pack closing style that could factor if the pace is honest.

Shesabeast (9) appears on the also-eligible list at 15-1 for trainer Eric Ramaekers.

Selections

Win: Ry Ry (2)
Place: Gatsbys greenlight (4)
Show: Well Received (8)


Race 7: My Trusty Cat Stakes ($100,000)

Post Time: 3:43 PM CT

Seven and a half furlongs on dirt for two-year-old fillies. Stakes race with $100,000 purse.

Pace Analysis

This eight-horse stakes field features quality juveniles from several high-profile barns. Kontiki (2) has shown the ability to close from off the pace, while Not a Lady (4) displays a mid-pack stalking style. Hold the Drama (7) and Hurricane Kate (1) will provide early pressure, setting up potential for closers in a race with substantial distance. At seven and a half furlongs, honest early fractions should benefit late runners.

Key Contenders

Kontiki (2) commands the 1.20-1 morning line for Hall of Fame-caliber trainer Brad H. Cox with Timothy Thornton riding. This Gun Runner filly brings the most earnings in the field at $203,700 with four wins from six career starts. Cox has won Eclipse Awards and consistently places horses to win major stakes events. Kontiki shows a fastest closer running style and figures to sit a perfect trip in the two-path before accelerating through the stretch.​

Actis (5) at 3.50-1 for trainer Thomas M. Amoss with meet leader Vicente Del-Cid aboard represents the primary threat. Amoss is a multiple leading trainer at Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs with extensive stakes experience. This filly has won two of eight starts with earnings of $120,774 and shows a mid-pack stalking style that has produced consistent results. Del-Cid’s 27% win rate adds significant firepower.​

Not a Lady (4) at 5-1 trained by Steven M. Asmussen with Joel Dominguez riding enters as a potential value play. Asmussen is among the sport’s all-time winningest trainers, and this filly has won two of three starts with a mid-pack stalking style. She could be the spoiler at morning line odds that may exceed her actual ability to factor.​

Secondary Choices

Miss Metoyer (8) at 8-1 for trainer Benard Chatters with Edward Santiago riding broke her maiden impressively at seven furlongs at Delta Downs. This filly is undefeated in one career start and represents the local contingent with intrigue.​

Ritzaphena (3) at 10-1 trained by Jayde J. Gelner with Isaac Castillo aboard has won two of four starts and brings stakes experience from Remington Park. The price could offer value in the exotic pools.​

Longshots

Piedra Preciosa (6) at 12-1 for trainer Rey Hernandez appears on the trainer scratch list and may not start. If cleared, this filly shows placing form in her last three starts.​

Hold the Drama (7) at 15-1 trained by Jonathan Wong with Elio J. Barrera riding won her debut at four furlongs at Delta Downs but stretches out significantly here. Wong’s exceptional meet statistics (40% win rate) make any of his runners dangerous.​

Hurricane Kate (1) at 15-1 for trainer Jonathan Wong with David Cohen riding won her debut impressively and could show early speed. Wong doubles up in this stakes race.​

Selections

Win: Kontiki (2)
Place: Actis (5)
Show: Not a Lady (4)


Race 8: Claiming $5,000

Post Time: 4:11 PM CT

Seven and a half furlongs on dirt for three-year-olds and upward which have never won four races. Purse: $14,500.

Pace Analysis

This twelve-horse field features multiple horses with tactical stalking styles and few confirmed early speed types. City of Love (8) shows some front-running tendencies, while Incredible Shot (4) and Chupapi Munyayo (7) display closing styles. The extended distance of seven and a half furlongs should produce honest fractions with late closers having every opportunity to factor.

Key Contenders

Incredible Shot (4) enters as the 2.50-1 favorite for trainer Eduardo Ramirez with Vicente Del-Cid riding. This five-year-old gelding shows the fastest closing style in the field with a 63% strike rate for hitting the board in 30 career starts. Del-Cid’s dominance during this meet (27% win rate) combined with a horse who consistently finds the exacta creates the logical choice.​

Chupapi Munyayo (7) at 3.50-1 for trainer Jonathan Wong with David Cohen riding brings significant class to this field. Wong’s 40% win rate during the current meet demands respect, and this gelding has earned over $244,000 in career purses—more than double the next closest competitor.​

El Mero Mero (5) at 5-1 trained by Isai V. Gonzalez appears on the veterinarian scratch list and may not start. If cleared, this four-year-old gelding has won four of fifteen starts and shows tactical speed.​

Secondary Choices

High Prince (11) at 5-1 for trainer Angel M. Rodriguez appears on the also-eligible list and would need scratches to draw into the race. If entered, this colt brings class and earnings of over $103,000.​

City of Love (8) at 6-1 trained by Jose M. Camejo with Alexander Castillo aboard shows a front-running style at seven and a half furlongs that could steal this race on the lead if allowed soft fractions.

Jim Ned (9) at 8-1 for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez with Timothy Thornton riding brings extensive class with over $212,000 in career earnings. The slowest closer running style needs an honest pace to factor.​

Longshots

Barbacoa (12) at 10-1 for trainer Jesse Sauceda with Jansen Melancon riding has hit the board twelve times in 34 career starts. The mid-pack closing style could produce a placing effort.​

Honor That Dude (10) at 10-1 trained by Randy Degeyter, Jr. with Jansen Melancon riding gets the lightest weight at 115 pounds and has won three of fifteen starts.​

Selections

Win: Incredible Shot (4)
Place: Chupapi Munyayo (7)
Show: City of Love (8)


Jockey Notes and Insights

Vicente Del-Cid dominates the current Delta Downs meet with 45 wins from 156 mounts at a 27% win rate, more than doubling any other rider’s total. The Guatemala native won his first Delta Downs riding title during the 2022-23 season and has repeated in subsequent years. He is named on key mounts throughout today’s card including Run Reckless Run (Race 1), Brilliant Call (Race 4), Getoutofdaway (Race 5), Actis (Race 7), and Incredible Shot (Race 8). Any horse with Del-Cid aboard deserves serious consideration regardless of morning line odds.​

Timothy Thornton has been riding at a 31% win rate during the current meet with 65% of mounts hitting the board. He takes the mount on significant contenders including Midnight Halo (Race 2), He’s Ready to Win (Race 3), Wings of a Sparrow (Race 5), Gatsbys greenlight (Race 6), Kontiki (Race 7), and Jim Ned (Race 8). His partnerships with leading trainers make him a dangerous factor throughout the card.​

Paco Lopez returns to Delta Downs after a six-month HISA suspension that Louisiana does not recognize. Lopez had won 300 races from 1,194 mounts in 2025 before his suspension and was the leading rider at both Monmouth Park and Colonial Downs. He is named on My Dad’s Guitar (Race 2) and Unshakeable Proof (Race 4) and could provide significant value as trainers become more familiar with his availability.​

Jansen Melancon has been the leading rider at previous Delta Downs meets and continues to produce consistent results at a 12% win rate with 42% of mounts hitting the board during the current meet. He takes mounts throughout the card and should be included in exotic plays.​

Joel Dominguez has shown steady form with an 8% win rate and 42% of mounts hitting the board. His partnerships with trainer Isai V. Gonzalez and others make him a reliable factor in the exacta and trifecta pools.​


Trainer Notes and Insights

Jonathan Wong has been exceptional during the current Delta Downs meet with a 48% win rate and 78% of runners hitting the board. Despite serving a two-year HISA suspension, Wong continues racing in Louisiana where the authority has no jurisdiction. He sends out Well Received (Race 6), Hold the Drama (Race 7), Hurricane Kate (Race 7), and Chupapi Munyayo (Race 8). Any Wong starter deserves serious consideration regardless of odds.​

Brad H. Cox trains the heavy favorite Kontiki in the featured My Trusty Cat Stakes. Cox is among the sport’s elite trainers with multiple Eclipse Awards and over $29 million in earnings during 2024 alone. His Louisville-based operation consistently wins major stakes across the country, and Kontiki appears well-placed to add another victory.​

Brett A. Brinkman has established excellent form at Delta Downs with a 22% win rate during the current meet. He sends out He’s Ready to Win (Race 3), Scallywag (Race 8), and Ry Ry (Race 6). Brinkman has historically performed well at Delta Downs and Fair Grounds with Louisiana-bred runners.​

Thomas M. Amoss sends out Actis in the My Trusty Cat Stakes and brings decades of stakes-winning experience. Amoss holds leading trainer titles at Fair Grounds (10 times), Churchill Downs (twice), and is a member of the Fair Grounds Hall of Fame. His horses have won over $106 million in career earnings.​

Steven M. Asmussen trains Not a Lady in the My Trusty Cat Stakes. Asmussen ranks among the winningest trainers in North American racing history and consistently sends talented juveniles to Delta Downs stakes events.

Eduardo Ramirez has been running horses at a 16% win rate during the current meet. He trains Senor Smoke (Race 3) and Incredible Shot (Race 8), both of whom get meet leader Vicente Del-Cid in the saddle.​

Isai V. Gonzalez operates a consistent barn at Delta Downs with multiple runners throughout the card including Sister Ella (Race 5), Brilliant Call (Race 4), and El Mero Mero (Race 8) if cleared from the veterinarian list.


Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Today’s 10% takeout across all pools represents an unprecedented opportunity for horseplayers. Under normal conditions, Delta Downs takes 17% on win, place, and show bets and 25% on trifecta, superfecta, Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 pools. The reduced takeout means a winning Pick 4 that would normally pay $750 will now pay approximately $900. This creates substantial overlay value across all wagering opportunities.​

The most significant value play on the card may be the Early Pick 4 covering Races 1-4. Consider using Perfect Deal (2) and Run Reckless Run (1) in Race 1, spreading to include Midnight Halo (1), Aller Vite (2), and Night Stick (7) in Race 2, singling or using He’s Ready to Win (9) and Severus Squall (2) in Race 3, and spreading across Donegal Dreamer (5), Brilliant Call (2), and Unshakeable Proof (11) in Race 4.

For the My Trusty Cat Stakes (Race 7), Kontiki appears an overwhelming favorite at 1.20-1 morning line. The value play would be keying Actis (5) and Not a Lady (4) underneath in exacta and trifecta plays, or attempting to beat the favorite entirely with an Actis over Kontiki exacta.

The Late Pick 4 covering Races 5-8 offers multiple opportunities. Consider Getoutofdaway (1) and Sister Ella (2) in Race 5, Ry Ry (2) and Gatsbys greenlight (4) in Race 6, Kontiki (2) with Actis (5) in Race 7, and Incredible Shot (4) with Chupapi Munyayo (7) in Race 8.

Value plays to consider across the card include Well Received (8) in Race 6 as a first-time starter from the Wong barn at 6-1, Not a Lady (4) in Race 7 for Asmussen at 5-1 against a vulnerable favorite, and City of Love (8) in Race 8 at 6-1 if granted soft early fractions.

The ultra-low 10% takeout makes even marginal overlays significantly more profitable. Trifecta and superfecta plays that incorporate chalk runners in multiple positions will return considerably more than on typical racing cards. Aggressive exotic wagering is warranted given the reduced house edge.

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