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Thursday’s Fair Grounds card offers a very formful-looking sequence with several strong favorites but also a handful of wide‑open claiming and maiden races where price horses can land in the frame.
Four turf races are scheduled (Races 1, 4, 6, 8) at 1 1/16 miles or 5 1/2 furlongs, all at a rail setting of 14 feet. The remaining races are dirt sprints and routes that fit Fair Grounds’ typical winter profile: lower‑level Louisiana‑bred claimers, state‑bred allowance mares, and a pair of two‑year‑old races with promising fillies and colts.
Handicappers show strong consensus on several key horses:
Mo for Us in Race 3, Paving in Race 7, and Prepped in Race 8 are treated as heavy-win contenders by multiple independent handicapping sources. Western Run (Race 1), Runninginthemoney (Race 2), Guile and Texas Town (Race 5), Battle Drum and Maki Monarchy (Race 6), and Diamond Tiara or Madame Markievicz (Race 9) attract widespread support as primary win candidates.
Given the likely wet weather and the mix of strong favorites and chaotic claiming fields, the late Pick 4 and the 4–9 multi‑race sequences look particularly attractive for pressing opinions while still allowing for coverage in the more volatile races.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecasts for New Orleans today call for heavy rain, with daytime highs around 59–61 degrees and lows near 50, accompanied by a very high probability of precipitation (around 85–100 percent) and the chance of thunderstorms. Several forecast services emphasize the potential for locally heavy downpours and accumulations well above a typical rainy day for December.
As of the available official pages checked, there is no track‑specific update for December 4, 2025, listing the current dirt and turf conditions; the most recent Equibase “late changes” and Fair Grounds house pages refer to older dates earlier in the year. On comparable days the Fair Grounds dirt has been labeled Fast and the turf Firm, but with today’s projected heavy rain, the realistic expectation is for a wet main track (muddy to sloppy at some point in the card) and a softening turf course, with a meaningful risk that one or more turf races (Races 1, 4, 6, 8) could be moved to the main track.
Fair Grounds has a history of taking turf races off the grass when rain becomes persistent, even if the day begins on turf. For wagering purposes, it is important to monitor race‑day changes; the analysis that follows assumes the races stay on their intended surfaces but notes where particular horses figure to benefit if conditions deteriorate or races move to dirt.
Track Bias and Post Position Profile
Recent meet‑level data and historical profiles for Fair Grounds show the following tendencies:
On dirt sprints, early speed is a clear advantage. In the most recent full meet, horses on or within a length of the lead at the first call won roughly half of all dirt sprints. Earlier profiles agree that “E” and pace‑pressing types outperform deep closers in these races. Inside to middle posts (1–6) perform best; outside posts win less often, particularly in larger fields.
In dirt routes, the bias is milder but still slants to forward placement. Speed types won about 38 percent of routes at the latest meet, stalkers 34 percent, and closers 28 percent. Inside posts 1–3 captured more than half of the route races, with a clear drop‑off as you move outside.
In turf sprints, results are relatively balanced. There is a slight tilt toward speed, but winners can come from a range of positions, and post bias is modest, with only a mild disadvantage to the deepest outside draws over large samples.
In turf routes, closers and stalkers perform best. At the latest meet, late runners accounted for about 40 percent of turf route winners, stalkers another 38 percent, with only about 22 percent of winners going wire‑to‑wire in the long Fair Grounds stretch. The turf course’s deep root system and unique composition also make past success on this grass a strong positive; repeat turf winners at this track are common.
Today’s projected heavy rain could temporarily amplify speed on the main track if it becomes sealed and wet, or conversely make inside paths dead if water sits on the rail. Given no current‑day bias data yet, it is prudent to begin the card using the established profiles above and adjust reactively as the first few races are run.
1st Race – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 miles Turf (3up)
Post Time
12:45 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Available running‑style data suggests Suspiciously Named is the most naturally aggressive early horse, labeled as a fast horse with “leads” type speed. Prospero (IRE) is characterized as a leader but on the slower side, implying he can be forward without needing the top. Traitour and Denizen are both rated as “fast closers,” while Western Run is a fast closer with strong finishing ability off an honest pace.
With seven runners and only one clear “fastest leads” type, the pace projects as honest but not suicidal. Suspiciously Named should be forward, possibly joined by Prospero, with Denizen and Western Run tracking in the second flight and trying to uncork runs late. Closer‑type horses should not be at a major disadvantage given the configuration and moderate projected pace.
Key Contenders
Western Run (post 7, Joe Sharp / Paco Lopez) owns the strongest projected win percentages from computerized handicapping tools and is the clear top choice of several handicappers. He has repeatedly run well in turf routes at major circuits and now faces a modest local maiden group, pairing with a high‑percentage trainer and one of the meet’s top jockeys. His fast closer style fits turf‑route tendencies at Fair Grounds, especially if the course has any give.
Prospero (IRE) (post 1, Cherie DeVaux / Jose Ortiz) is another key player. Multiple handicappers make him their top or second choice, and his figures put him in the same neighborhood as Western Run. Style data calls him a “slowest leader,” which often translates to a horse who can secure a rail‑skimming trip just behind or alongside the pace without being forced into a speed duel. DeVaux and Ortiz both have excellent turf records and strong Fair Grounds meet statistics, making this inside draw very appealing.
Suspiciously Named (post 6, Sherman Savoie / Jareth Loveberry) is a fast‑early type with consistent in‑the‑money finishes in turf routes at Aqueduct. Handicappers rank him as a logical threat behind Western Run and Prospero, and his tactical versatility could be an asset if the turf softens and makes closing from too far back more difficult.
Secondary Choices
Denizen (post 4, Joe Sharp / Declan Cannon) has a “fast closer” profile with competitive turf form and shares the same barn as Western Run. He has been campaigned in reasonably tough spots and has the kind of sustained late run that fits the Fair Grounds stretch. Handicappers treat him as the next tier behind Western Run and Prospero, making him a strong exacta and trifecta piece.
Traitour (post 5, George Leonard III / Mitchell Murrill) has been second or third multiple times at this general level and owns a fast‑closer designation. Recent gate‑related scratches on the scratch‑watch list suggest some reliability concerns, but when he breaks cleanly he is usually in the mix late.
Longshots
Just Nate (post 2, Lonnie Briley / C. J. McMahon) and Carc Brothers (post 3, Rob Atras / Ben Curtis) are lightly regarded by most handicappers and lack the established turf-route credentials of the principals. Just Nate is described as a fast deep closer with moderate finishing power, while Carc Brothers lacks a defined style in the available data. Both can be used sparingly underneath in deeper vertical tickets but look a notch below the main group.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Given the consensus on Western Run and Prospero, this race looks like a reasonable spot to lean on those two in multi‑race bets, with Suspiciously Named and Denizen as backups. On turf, the late‑running profiles of Western Run and Denizen fit the course well, but if the race moves to a wet main track, Western Run and Suspiciously Named may gain relative value given their more forward or tactical styles, while purely deep closers could be compromised.
Within the race, an exacta and trifecta structure emphasizing Western Run over Prospero, Suspiciously Named, and Denizen makes sense, with small saver tickets using Prospero on top over Western Run and Suspiciously Named.
Selections
Win: 7 Western Run
Place: 1 Prospero (IRE)
Show: 6 Suspiciously Named
2nd Race – Claiming 5,000 N4L/N2 since 6/4 – 1 mile 70 yards Dirt (LA‑bred)
Post Time
1:15 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Creekside is identified as a “slower leader,” likely to be on or very near the front without being a pure speed burner. Syvestar is a fast stalker; Runninginthemoney is rated as the “fastest stalker.” City of Love, You Good, Purrrfect Rhythm, and Takeover Fiftyfour all sit in various mid‑pack stalker or deep‑closer designations.
With one clear forward type (Creekside) and a cohort of stalkers and closers, the race projects as a moderate, controlled pace. Creekside can control early fractions, with Runninginthemoney and Syvestar sitting ideal tracking trips just off his flank.
Key Contenders
Runninginthemoney (post 9, Sturges Ducoing / Ben Curtis) is a consensus top choice, favored by handicappers’ algorithms and also selected as the primary pick by some analysts. He owns solid course form and strong finish‑in‑the‑money percentages at similar routes at Fair Grounds. His fastest‑stalker style is perfect for this shape: he can sit second or third behind Creekside and launch at the top of the lane.
Syvestar (post 1, Shane Wilson / Paco Lopez) is the top choice for another group of handicappers and is well‑drawn inside. As a fast stalker from the rail, he should get a ground‑saving trip behind Creekside and ahead of most of the field, which is particularly useful if the rail proves advantageous on a wet track. His connections are very capable locally, and his consistency at this level makes him a logical win threat.
Creekside (post 6, Joseph Foster / Mitchell Murrill) is the likely pacesetter, and in a race without a lot of other speed, that alone makes him dangerous. His local form and connections are strong enough that several handicappers list him among their top three selections for this event.
Secondary Choices
Purrrfect Rhythm (post 2, Jonas Gibson / Marcelino Pedroza Jr.) has solid recent form and mid‑pack stalker style, projecting a trip just behind the primary trio. He has won recently in similar company, and handicappers consistently rank him as a secondary contender.
City of Love (post 7, Jose Camejo / Axel Concepcion) and You Good (post 8, Sam David Jr. / Declan Cannon) both bring reasonable form and mid‑pack stalking styles. Multiple handicappers place them in the middle of their projected order of finish, making them interesting trifecta fill‑ins and possible upset candidates if the top pair underperform.
Longshots
Takeover Fiftyfour (post 3), Spinning Aces (post 4), and Joey’s Lightening (post 5) appear to be a step slower on most figures and are positioned as lower‑tier plays by the consensus of handicappers. They can be used sparingly in deeper verticals, with Takeover Fiftyfour perhaps the most appealing of the three based on slightly better projected finishing statistics.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This race is a classic “favorite vs co‑favorite” situation between Runninginthemoney and Syvestar, with Creekside as a very live third option. In multi‑race bets, key Runninginthemoney and Syvestar as primary A horses, with Creekside as a strong B, and Purrrfect Rhythm as a C for coverage.
Within the race, exacta strategies can key Runninginthemoney and Syvestar over Creekside, Purrrfect Rhythm, City of Love, and You Good. If the tote board makes Creekside an overlay relative to Runninginthemoney and Syvestar, a small win saver on the lone speed is justified.
Selections
Win: 9 Runninginthemoney
Place: 1 Syvestar
Show: 6 Creekside
3rd Race – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 furlongs Dirt (LA‑bred F&M)
Post Time
1:45 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Mo for Us is labeled “fastest deep,” a powerful off‑pace filly who does her best running late. Liam’s Mist is a “fast stalker,” capable of sitting just off the leaders. Country Belle and Hopeitsmyluckyday are fast closers, Sienna Breeze a slower closer, while Mika Ella Pika is a “mid‑pack leader” type.
With Mika Ella Pika the main pace presence and several capable stalkers and closers behind, the race should feature a fair, honest pace rather than a meltdown. Horses with tactical speed and a strong late kick, like Mo for Us and Liam’s Mist, are ideally suited.
Key Contenders
Mo for Us (post 6, Steve Asmussen / Jose Ortiz) is a clear standout on paper and in the eyes of multiple handicappers. She exits strong performances in tough company, including an emphatic win last time in a high‑quality sprint that produced top‑end figures. Her deep‑closing style coupled with Ortiz’s patient ride profile and Asmussen’s outstanding sprint‑mare record make her the one to beat.
Liam’s Mist (post 3, Keith Bourgeois / Axel Concepcion) is the main danger. She comes in off a good recent win and brings a versatile fast‑stalker style that can adapt to how the pace unfolds. She is consistently in the money and has already proven competitive at similar levels, earning a strong secondary endorsement from handicappers.
Jus Makes Cents (post 1, Joe Duhon / Paco Lopez) owns two wins and three additional placings from seven starts, with a “slowest stalker” profile and recent wins on both turf and dirt routes. Dropping back to a dirt sprint is an interesting move that could sharpen her late kick; several handicappers list her among their top three selections.
Secondary Choices
Hopeitsmyluckyday (post 2, Yovani Munoz / Jose Riquelme) and Country Belle (post 4, Steven Duke / Emanuel Nieves) both have fast‑closer profiles and plenty of experience at this level. They are logical underneath horses and could pick up pieces if Mo for Us and Liam’s Mist hook up too early or if the pace is stronger than anticipated.
Mika Ella Pika (post 7, John Ney / Erica Murray) figures as the pace presence from the outside. With two wins and a high in‑the‑money rate, she is dangerous if left alone on the front end, particularly if the track is playing kind to speed.
Longshots
Sienna Breeze (post 5, Charlie Rosier / Colby Hernandez) is an older mare who has danced many dances and now projects primarily as a minor‑award candidate. She appears a cut below the principals on current form but can be used in deeper trifectas.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Mo for Us is the most likely single on the card and a logical anchor in multi‑race sequences starting or including this race. For bettors unwilling to single, Liam’s Mist is the one to back up with as an A‑minus type.
Inside the race, consider a cold exacta Mo for Us over Liam’s Mist, backed by saver tickets including Jus Makes Cents and Country Belle in the second slot. In trifectas, key Mo for Us on top, with Liam’s Mist, Jus Makes Cents, Hopeitsmyluckyday, and Country Belle underneath.
Selections
Win: 6 Mo for Us
Place: 3 Liam’s Mist
Show: 1 Jus Makes Cents
4th Race – Maiden Special Weight – 5 1/2 furlongs Turf (3up)
Post Time
2:15 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Prince Ben and Film At Eleven are both designated as front‑running “leader” types, with Prince Ben a fast leader and Film At Eleven a fast leads horse stretching his speed. First Samaritan is a mid‑pack leader, Greasepaintgroucho a mid‑pack stalker, while Restore, Urban Ruler, Valiant Humor, and Be Real are all various flavors of fast closers or deep runners.
This sets up as a legitimate turf sprint pace, with multiple horses vying for the lead and a phalanx of closers waiting to pounce. On Fair Grounds turf, this type of shape typically favours strong finishers if the ground has any give.
Key Contenders
Restore (FR) (post 2, Dallas Stewart / Paco Lopez) has consistently been well‑bet in maiden turf sprints at major tracks and retains a high projected in‑the‑money percentage from AI handicapping models. He is labeled a “fast closer,” which plays perfectly into the expected hot pace and long stretch. Multiple handicappers make him a key win candidate, including being the top selection for one prominent public handicapper.
Urban Ruler (post 5, Chris Block / Jareth Loveberry) has one of the more appealing profiles in the field, with strong turf‑sprint efforts at Hawthorne and Kentucky Downs and a fast‑closer style that suits this course. Handicappers rank him highly, and his connections excel with turf sprinters shipping into Fair Grounds.
Valiant Humor (post 8, Shelly Radosevich / Axel Concepcion) is a hard‑knocking maiden with multiple placed efforts and a fast‑closer label. The consensus from handicappers is that he is one of the more likely to finally break through at this level, especially if the turf plays fair to slightly closer‑friendly.
Be Real (post 10, Joe Sharp / Jose Ortiz) is lightly raced and improving, with a strong recent dirt sprint at Aqueduct and a fast, deep‑closing style. His trainer has excellent numbers both at Fair Grounds and with turf and dirt sprinters, and Ortiz’s presence signals intent.
Secondary Choices
Prince Ben (post 6, Tanner Tracy / C. J. McMahon) and Film At Eleven (post 9, Ricky Courville / Jose Riquelme) are the main speed threats. If the turf comes up firmer than forecast and the rail path turns out to be advantageous, either could take them a long way on the front end. Handicappers rate them as second‑tier win candidates but live horizontal‑sequence keys if the projected closing bias does not materialize.
Greasepaintgroucho (post 1) and First Samaritan (post 3) are longer‑priced maidens with mid‑pack styles and modest but not hopeless profiles. They are more attractive as underneath finishers than win plays.
Longshots
Jus Surprise Me (post 4) and Flawless Beast (post 7) appear to be the longest shots on most lineups. With limited data and modest credentials, they are relegated to the fringes of deeper trifectas.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This race is deep and offers good vertical opportunities. The primary lean is to the quartet of closers: Restore, Urban Ruler, Valiant Humor, and Be Real. In exactas and trifectas, consider using two of them on top with the others and the two main speeds (Prince Ben, Film At Eleven) underneath.
For multi‑race bets, pressing the four‑horse group 2–5–8–10 as A horses is logical, with Prince Ben and Film At Eleven as B coverage, especially if the turf appears speed‑favoring by post time.
Selections
Win: 2 Restore (FR)
Place: 5 Urban Ruler
Show: 10 Be Real
5th Race – Claiming N3L – 6 furlongs Dirt
Post Time
2:45 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Guile is rated as the “fastest leads” horse and clear projected pace setter. Red Moscato and My Liam are also forward, each tagged with “slower leads” or similar early‑speed profiles, while Upturned Brim is a fast stalker likely to sit right behind the top flight. The rest of the field has more mid‑pack or closing tendencies.
With three genuine speed types and an aggressive stalker, this projects as one of the hotter paces of the card. A speed‑favoring track could let Guile carry his speed, but on a tiring or wet surface, the setup may shift toward a stalker like Texas Town or Upturned Brim.
Key Contenders
Guile (post 4, Alexis Claire / Ben Curtis) is a consensus win pick from several handicappers and is heavily favored in some algorithmic rankings. He owns strong early speed and has run competitive figures at this level, often before weakening late. If the track is kind to speed, he is the most likely wire‑to‑wire winner.
Texas Town (post 2, Chris Hartman / Mitchell Murrill) has been identified by multiple handicappers as a top‑tier contender and even the primary pick by some. He brings tactical speed with the ability to sit just off a hot pace and finish, a profile that fits a potentially contested early scenario. The connections are excellent with claiming sprinters in this region.
Dr. Niko (post 1, Alexis Claire / Emanuel Nieves) gives trainer Claire a strong one‑two punch. He has a fast‑closer designation, indicating he can stalk and pounce from the rail. With the inside draw and a projected intense early pace, he has an ideal setup to come through if Guile and the other speeds soften each other.
Secondary Choices
Upturned Brim (post 7, Randy Degeyter Jr. / Marcelino Pedroza Jr.) is a fast stalker with solid win and in‑the‑money percentages at similar claiming levels. He projects a dream trip just behind Guile, Red Moscato, and My Liam, and could inherit the lead if they falter.
Check Me Out (post 5) and Red Moscato (post 6) are both mid‑priced contenders that handicappers put in the middle of their projections. Check Me Out brings old class and a capable closing kick, while Red Moscato offers pace and could stick around for a share.
Longshots
Josan (post 3) and Ashaab (post 9) appear on the lower tiers of most expert rankings and face a fairly salty N3L group. They can be tossed into superfectas but otherwise look up against it.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This is an excellent race to take a stand against at least one of the obvious speeds in vertical wagers. If Guile is heavily bet, consider leaning on Texas Town and Dr. Niko as win alternatives, particularly if the surface looks tiring with all the rain.
In exactas, key Texas Town and Guile over Dr. Niko, Upturned Brim, and Check Me Out. For trifectas, use Guile and Texas Town on top, but spread a bit in the second and third positions with Dr. Niko, Upturned Brim, Red Moscato, and Check Me Out.
Selections
Win: 4 Guile
Place: 2 Texas Town
Show: 1 Dr. Niko
6th Race – Claiming N2L – 1 1/16 miles Turf
Post Time
3:15 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Battle Drum (FR), Boy Boy, Maki Monarchy, and Jack Rabbit are all classified as “fast leads” or comparable front‑running types. Hard Scholar is a mid‑pack leader, Sharp Strike a fast closer, with most of the rest labeled stalkers or off‑pace runners.
With at least three genuine speed horses and several tactical types, this race should feature one of the strongest early paces among the turf routes on the card. That should help an off‑pace horse with stamina and a clean trip, especially in a big field.
Key Contenders
Maki Monarchy (post 9, D. Whitworth Beckman / Axel Concepcion) is the preferred selection for several handicappers and ranks high in projected win probability. He has shown ability at similar distances and classes, and his fast‑leads designation suggests he will be forwardly placed despite an outside draw. In a big field, tactical speed is an asset, though he must avoid getting cooked in the early duel.
Battle Drum (FR) (post 1, Joe Sharp / Jose Ortiz) is another top choice, repeatedly spotlighted by public handicappers and rating highly in AI models. His inside draw allows him to either take the lead or sit just behind the other speeds, and his connections are among the most potent turf route teams at Fair Grounds.
Sharp Strike (post 11, Daniel Simpson / Jareth Loveberry) brings a fast‑closer style and solid turf‑route credentials. Several handicappers give him considerable respect in projected finish positions, and his late run could be perfectly timed if the front quartet overdoes it.
Secondary Choices
Bolt From Above (post 8) is a capable mid‑priced contender with tactical speed and experience at this level. Mary’s Boy Bolt (post 2) and Hard Scholar (post 5) have enough class and mid‑pack or leader styles to make noise if they maintain position behind the main pace and avoid wide trips.
Longshots
C Mac Da Boss (post 7), Aries Honor (post 3), Date the Prince (post 12), Cash App Mike (post 13), and No Take Backs (post 14) fill out the field and are positioned as price horses in the consensus rankings. From this group, Cash App Mike and Date the Prince have slightly more appealing profiles, particularly if closers are making a strong impact on the day.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This is a spread race in multi‑race sequences. A reasonable structure is to treat Battle Drum, Maki Monarchy, and Sharp Strike as A horses, with Bolt From Above and Mary’s Boy Bolt as B coverage.
Inside the race, lean toward Battle Drum and Maki Monarchy as win candidates, but structure verticals to reward a scenario where one or both speed horses tire and a closer like Sharp Strike or a stalker like Hard Scholar or Bolt From Above picks up a piece. Given rain risk, any move off the turf would massively favour the forward types, especially Battle Drum and Maki Monarchy.
Selections
Win: 1 Battle Drum (FR)
Place: 9 Maki Monarchy
Show: 11 Sharp Strike
7th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 furlongs Dirt (2yo fillies)
Post Time
3:45 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Unfaithful Rose and Luv Your Neighbor are both labeled as mid‑pack leaders, while Special Sauce is a slower stalker and Collective Beauty a “fast deep” closer. Final Shipman is a slow deep closer; Paving lacks defined style data but has shown enough natural speed to win first out going six furlongs.
The pace should be honest but not blistering, centered on Unfaithful Rose and Luv Your Neighbor, with Paving likely close and Special Sauce stalking. Closers like Collective Beauty and Final Shipman will need an honest pace and possibly a wet or tiring surface to maximize their chances.
Key Contenders
Paving (post 2, Tom Amoss / Jose Ortiz) is a heavy consensus choice, with multiple handicappers making her the top pick and projecting a large win chance. She debuted impressively and now returns in a logical spot, retaining Ortiz and landing an inside‑middle draw for a likely pace‑pressing trip. The Amoss/Ortiz combination is dangerous at any track, particularly in allowance races for young horses.
Collective Beauty (post 6, Brad Cox / Marcelino Pedroza Jr.) brings a strong resume with multiple in‑the‑money finishes and a fast‑deep running style. Her trainer and jockey both have elite statistics, and many handicappers treat her as a co‑favorite or strong second choice.
Special Sauce (post 3, Larry Rivelli / Jareth Loveberry) is a talented stalker with high in‑the‑money rates. She has been ultra‑consistent, and handicappers regularly list her in their top three for this race. With a stalking style, she can sit just behind Paving and Luv Your Neighbor and strike turning for home.
Secondary Choices
Unfaithful Rose (post 4, Ethan West / C. J. McMahon) and Luv Your Neighbor (post 5, Michael Stidham / Axel Concepcion) are both legitimate win candidates if Paving or Collective Beauty underperform. Unfaithful Rose has a mid‑pack leader style with excellent in‑the‑money percentages; Luv Your Neighbor is similar but with slightly more early speed. Either could capitalize on a track tilt toward speed or pressing types.
Final Shipman (post 1) is a useful local filly with multiple wins but may be somewhat outclassed if all the big guns fire. Her slow‑deep profile suggests that she would benefit from any pace meltdown or strongly closing bias on the day.
Longshots
None of the six can be dismissed entirely, but Final Shipman appears to be the most overlooked by handicappers and might offer some value in the third or fourth spots of verticals.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This is another race where a single is plausible in multi‑race bets. Paving is the most logical candidate, but Collective Beauty is a very close second and can be used as a co‑A horse if desired.
Within the race, build exactas and trifectas keyed on Paving and Collective Beauty, with Special Sauce, Unfaithful Rose, and Luv Your Neighbor underneath. If the tote board heavily favors Paving, consider a small win saver on Collective Beauty, particularly if closers are doing well.
Selections
Win: 2 Paving
Place: 6 Collective Beauty
Show: 3 Special Sauce
8th Race – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 miles Turf (2yo)
Post Time
4:15 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Shakin My Head, Aces Honor, Strong, Whatever, and Carson Street are all tagged as various “fast stalker” or “fastest stalker” types. Leonardo is a mid‑pack closer, while Prepped, Matching Funds, Shuggy, Fake Smart, Ride Or Fly, and Princeton largely lack defined styles but are likely to fall into mid‑pack positions based on breeding and distance.
This shapes up as a race with several tactical stalkers but no obvious need‑the‑lead type. The pace should be moderate, with a large group bunched behind a couple of forward types, making trip and ground loss particularly important.
Key Contenders
Prepped (post 2, Cherie DeVaux / Jose Ortiz) is the top choice for several handicappers and is projected as one of the highest win probabilities on the card. He is well‑bred for the distance, hails from a top turf outfit, and gets Ortiz, who excels with patiently ridden turf juveniles. Even with “no data” on style, his connections and expected tactical speed make him the horse to beat.
Fake Smart (post 9, Joe Sharp / Paco Lopez) is highly regarded by both computer models and public handicappers, many of whom list him among their top two selections. He has already shown ability in a dirt sprint and now stretches out and switches to turf, a move this barn executes very effectively. With Lopez aboard, he should secure a forward stalking position.
Carson Street (post 12, Brendan Walsh / Ben Curtis) registers one of the strongest projected win/place/show profiles among the field and has been singled out by several handicappers as a major win candidate. Despite the wide post, his “fastest stalker” label suggests he has enough early speed to get reasonable position into the first turn. Walsh is excellent with young turf routers.
Shakin My Head (post 1, Keri Brion / Axel Concepcion) is an experienced turf‑route maiden with a fast stalker profile and solid earnings relative to this field. The rail draw offers a ground‑saving trip, and multiple handicappers like him as a strong top‑four finisher.
Shuggy (post 8, Cherie DeVaux / Declan Cannon) also draws positive attention from both models and handicappers, projecting as a mid‑priced contender with upside.
Secondary Choices
Leonardo (post 3), Matching Funds (post 4), Aces Honor (post 5), Strong (post 6), Whatever (post 7), Ride Or Fly (post 10), and Princeton (post 11) form a deep secondary tier. Any of them could jump up with improvement at this stage of their careers, especially given their connections. From this group, Aces Honor and Strong stand out slightly based on style and prior experience at similar distances.
Longshots
With two‑year‑old turf routes, the line between longshot and contender is thin. Princeton and some of the zero‑start maidens will likely be big prices, but hard data on them is limited, and they are best treated as deep exotics fillers until more is known.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This race is a key pivot point for late sequences. A reasonable approach is to treat Prepped and Fake Smart as primary A horses, with Carson Street and Shakin My Head as B’s and Shuggy as a C.
Vertically, focus trifectas around the quartet of Prepped, Fake Smart, Carson Street, and Shakin My Head, adding Shuggy and a couple of mid‑priced newcomers underneath. Because of distance and age, surprises are always possible, so consider modest spreads underneath rather than trying to nail a very tight combination.
Selections
Win: 2 Prepped
Place: 9 Fake Smart
Show: 12 Carson Street
9th Race – Maiden Claiming 12,500 – 6 furlongs Dirt (F&M 3up)
Post Time
4:45 PM CT.
Pace Analysis
Among horses with defined styles, Sell the Buffalo is a “fastest closer,” Illy Simz and Maiz’n Money are mid‑pack stalkers, Spicy Noodles a slower deep closer, and Madame Markievicz and D’ Argonaut are “fast stalkers.” Several debuters or lightly raced types have “no data” style assignments, so at least one of them could show more early speed than indicated.
On paper, this is a race without an obvious need‑the‑lead type, leaning heavily toward stalkers and closers. That makes gate break and rider intent crucial; whoever shows initiative early and secures position may gain a big tactical edge.
Key Contenders
Amora (post 7, Tanner Tracy / C. J. McMahon) and Madame Markievicz (post 4, J. Keith Desormeaux / Colby Hernandez) are treated as principal win candidates by several handicappers. Amora has limited data but comes from a barn that does well with this kind of maiden‑claimer placement and could improve sharply with experience. Madame Markievicz has more foundation, including a pair of minor placings and a fast‑stalker designation. The drop into this level looks appropriate.
D’ Argonaut (post 5, Eduardo Rodriguez / Paco Lopez) has a strong projected in‑the‑money profile and a fast‑stalker style. With Lopez aboard and decent Hawthorne sprint experience, she is a very logical win candidate in a weak maiden field, and several handicappers slot her near the top of their expected finishes.
Sell the Buffalo (post 1, Paul Duhon / Mitchell Murrill) is a fastest closer with prior experience and a high projected show probability. She has repeatedly shown some late run but has yet to break through. From the rail in a field lacking obvious front‑runners, she may actually find herself closer to the pace than usual.
Diamond Tiara (post 8, Brian Williamson / Jareth Loveberry) is a debuter or minimally raced filly without style data, but handicappers respect her enough to put her among the top tier, and another group of analysts make her their top choice. With Loveberry riding and a capable barn, she is very dangerous if she breaks alertly.
Secondary Choices
Maiz’n Money (post 6) and Illy Simz (post 2) are mid‑priced maiden claimers whose profiles suggest they can pick up a piece if the pace is honest and the main group underperforms. Ms. Brandi Shaw (post 9) and Mom’s Hands (post 10) are more speculative, but in this weak group, they are not impossible for minor awards.
Longshots
Spicy Noodles (post 3) owns a slower‑deep profile with limited production to date and is ranked near the bottom of most expert projections. She is primarily a superfecta inclusion.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This is one of the more chaotic races on the card and a realistic spot to fish for a price. Vertical wagers should be built around a core group of Amora, Madame Markievicz, D’ Argonaut, Sell the Buffalo, and Diamond Tiara, with Maiz’n Money and Illy Simz sprinkled underneath.
In multi‑race wagers, this race should generally be treated as a spread leg unless your earlier opinions are strong enough to justify a thin closing position. If forced to narrow, D’ Argonaut and Madame Markievicz offer a good blend of experience, projected style, and connections.
Selections
Win: 5 D’ Argonaut
Place: 4 Madame Markievicz
Show: 8 Diamond Tiara
Jockey Notes and Insights
Fair Grounds’ recent meet statistics show Paco Lopez, Jareth Loveberry, and Declan Cannon among the leading riders, with Lopez on top in wins and a very high win‑place‑show percentage. Jose Ortiz ships in with strong overall 2025 numbers and has already been highly effective at Fair Grounds in selective mounts.
Paco Lopez is live throughout this card. He is aboard Western Run (Race 1), Syvestar (Race 2), Mo for Us (Race 3), Restore (Race 4), My Liam (Race 5), Hammer of Justice (Race 6), Final Shipman (Race 7), Fake Smart (Race 8), and D’ Argonaut (Race 9). His aggressive style and proficiency on speed and stalker types are especially important in today’s likely wet‑track conditions and in races where controlling pace is an edge.
Jose Ortiz has a focused but powerful book, including Prospero (IRE), Mo for Us, Be Real, Battle Drum, Paving, and Prepped. In general, he rides with excellent positional awareness and tends to give off‑pace horses every chance in long stretches, which suits Fair Grounds turf routes and mid‑pack types on the dirt.
Jareth Loveberry rides important contenders like Urban Ruler, Sharp Strike, Shuggy, and Diamond Tiara. He has been a high‑percentage rider at this track in recent meets and is particularly strong with turf horses and younger stock.
Local riders Mitchell Murrill, James Graham, Axel Concepcion, Marcelino Pedroza Jr., and Colby Hernandez have deep experience at Fair Grounds and often outperform their public odds, particularly when paired with regional trainers like Hartman, Block, David Jr., and Williamson.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Equibase meet stats from the 2024–25 Fair Grounds season highlight Joe Sharp, Brad Cox, Shane Wilson, Cherie DeVaux, Tom Amoss, Brendan Walsh, Michael Stidham, and Eduardo Rodriguez as key trainers to follow.
Joe Sharp sends out Western Run and Denizen (Race 1), Be Real (Race 4), Battle Drum and Fake Smart (Races 6 and 8). He is among the leading trainers here and particularly adept with turf horses and allowance/maiden types, making his runners must‑use in multi‑race sequences.
Brad Cox has Collective Beauty in Race 7, a filly with strong prior form and a high‑win barn behind her. Cox’s runners tend to be well‑meant when placed here; he is one of the national leaders in earnings and win percentages.
Cherie DeVaux, another prominent Fair Grounds presence, sends Prospero (IRE) and Prepped, and co‑trains Shuggy. Her turf stock has performed very well at this meet in recent seasons, especially with Ortiz and Cannon aboard.
Tom Amoss, Michael Stidham, and Brendan Walsh all have live two‑year‑old runners today. These barns are especially dangerous in juvenile allowance and maiden races, where their horses often move forward second time out or on surface changes.
Eduardo Rodriguez and Tanner Tracy do solid work in the claiming and maiden‑claiming ranks and have live bullets late on the card, notably D’ Argonaut and Amora in Race 9. Their runners can offer strong value because they are often less bet than the big‑name outfits but still very competitive.
Overall, connections from the Sharp, DeVaux, Cox, Amoss, and Walsh barns should be upgraded slightly in close decisions, especially in turf routes and two‑year‑old races.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card sets up well for combining a few logical favorites with spreads in the more chaotic races.
For horizontal wagers:
Consider singling or heavily leaning on Mo for Us in Race 3 and Paving in Race 7 as high‑probability anchors. If comfortable with more risk, Western Run in Race 1 and Prepped in Race 8 are also candidates for strong leverage, though turf and weather variables add some uncertainty.
Use wider coverage in Races 5, 6, and 9. These are the most open events, with several live longshots and pace scenarios that could lead to upsets. In these legs, include your preferred price horses such as Dr. Niko or Texas Town in Race 5, Sharp Strike or Hard Scholar in Race 6, and Sell the Buffalo or Maiz’n Money in Race 9.
For vertical wagers:
In Race 1, build exacta and trifecta structures emphasizing Western Run and Prospero on top, with Suspiciously Named and Denizen in second and third. If the turf is tiring, increase exposure to the closers; if it seems speed‑favoring, lean more on Suspiciously Named.
In Race 2, key Runninginthemoney and Syvestar in exactas, but use Creekside strongly in the second slot, as he is the most likely lone speed. Any late betting drift on Creekside could offer good win‑bet value.
Race 5 offers potential value by betting against an overbet Guile if the track is not strongly speed‑biased. Texas Town and Dr. Niko are logical alternatives at better prices, with Upturned Brim and Check Me Out as exotic enhancers.
Race 9 is the best chance for a higher‑priced hit; structure trifectas around the core group of D’ Argonaut, Madame Markievicz, Amora, Sell the Buffalo, and Diamond Tiara, mixing in one or two of the bigger prices underneath.
Throughout the day, monitor how the track plays, particularly in the early races. If front‑running types consistently hold on in sprints despite contested paces, upgrade speed horses like Guile, Creekside, and the forward juveniles. If rallies from off the pace are effective, increase reliance on the numerous closers and stalkers that profile well in these Fair Grounds conditions.
