Fairmount Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for October 21, 2025

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Fairmount Park hosts an eight-race card today with ideal racing conditions expected. Current weather shows fair skies with temperatures at 42°F and clear conditions forecast for the remainder of the day. The track surface should be in excellent condition with calm winds and no precipitation expected.​

WEATHER AND TRACK CONDITIONS

Racing conditions appear optimal with fair weather holding throughout the day. The dirt track should be rated fast with no concerns about moisture or wind affecting racing. Temperature of 42°F with calm winds provides excellent conditions for both horses and jockeys.​

RACE 1 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT (1 MILE)

Key Contenders: Midnight Date enters from the powerful Gabe Retana barn and draws the rail with Felix Julio E. aboard. The combination has been successful recently at the track. Raz On Fire represents the Eddie Essenpreis stable and brings tactical speed with Santos aboard.​

Secondary Choices: Lucky Monica from Scott Becker’s leading stable could be competitive with class relief. Chinatown Girl shows promise as a lightly raced 3-year-old for Amy Nesbitt.​

Longshot Consideration: Ima Midnight Lady at long odds from the Retana barn could surprise if the pace unfolds favorably.

Pace Analysis: Moderate pace expected with several horses showing early speed tendencies. The mile distance should allow for tactical positioning.

Selection: Midnight Date with Raz On Fire as the value alternative.

RACE 2 – CLAIMING ($4,000)

Key Contenders: A Real Hero shows early betting support and represents reliable connections. I’m Interested from Scott Becker’s barn brings class and could be competitive with the weight allowance.​

Secondary Choices: Wildwood Posse fits this level and could improve with the class drop. Bethy adds experience to the mix for Frank Randazzo Jr.

Pace Analysis: Likely slow early pace with several closers in the field. Should set up for a late charge.

Selection: A Real Hero over I’m Interested for value.

RACE 3 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT (6 FURLONGS)

This $25,000 Illinois-bred maiden special weight for fillies and mares presents a competitive field of seven runners at 6 furlongs on the dirt. The race features several horses with consistent placing form seeking their first victory.​

Betting Market Analysis

The betting market shows Nella as the clear favorite at 2/1, followed by Aideen at 3/1, She’s Takin Charge at 4/1, Milaalah at 6/1, with Enchanted Moment and Watchthewindblowby both at 10/1, and Murphy’s Combo at 12/1.​

Top Contenders

NELLA (3) – 2/1 Favorite

The market leader “has shown consistency with three placed efforts and looks the one to beat” according to form analysts. Trained by Eddie Essenpreis and ridden by Ademar Santos, this combination brings quality to the race. The filly is sired by Lord Nelson out of Sayalilprayerforme and has yet to break her maiden status from four attempts. Her recent form shows competitive efforts, making her the horse to beat in this field.​

AIDEEN (1) – 3/1 Second Choice

This Eddie Essenpreis-trained filly “finished a close third last time out and could improve”. Sired by Firing Line out of Irish Marvel, she draws the rail position with Reynier Arrieta aboard. The combination of the leading trainer and inside post position gives her tactical advantages. Her recent near-miss suggests she’s ready to break through for her first victory.​

SHE’S TAKIN CHARGE (4) – 4/1 Third Choice

The four-year-old filly for Arthur Coontz “has multiple placed finishes and warrants respect”. Her recent form shows consistency with finishes of 222-235, including multiple runner-up efforts. Sired by Take Charge Indy out of She Has Risen, she has shown ability at this track previously. Javier Tavares takes the mount, and at four years old, she brings maturity to this field of mostly three-year-olds.​

Secondary Contenders

MILAALAH (6) – 6/1

Trained by Harry Lynch and sired by Cupid out of Talaalah. At three years old, she represents solid connections and could factor in the outcome. Alvin Ortiz rides, and at 6/1 odds, she offers potential value if the favorites falter.​

ENCHANTED MOMENT (2) – 10/1

The Steve Fridley-trained filly “is yet to break its maiden status, having not won a race yet from 5 attempts”. Sired by Paynter out of Uptempo, she’s shown little in recent outings and faces an uphill battle against this quality field. Alexander Bendezu rides for the reliable Fridley barn.​

Longshots

MURPHY’S COMBO (5) – 12/1

The four-year-old filly trained by Robert Pompell is sired by Well Positioned out of Euro Lilly. While she brings experience, her form suggests she’ll need significant improvement to compete with the top choices. Diego Javier takes the mount for owner Patti MacAri.​

WATCHTHEWINDBLOWBY (7) – 10/1

Another Robert Pompell trainee at long odds, this three-year-old filly by an unspecified sire faces a difficult task against this field. Alex Gonzalez rides, and she’ll need everything to go her way to factor in the outcome.

Pace Analysis

With several fillies showing early speed tendencies, the pace should be moderate to contested. The six-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed who can position themselves for a late rally. Nella and Aideen both have the versatility to adapt to the pace scenario.

Key Angles

The Eddie Essenpreis stable connection stands out with two runners (Nella and Aideen), giving the leading trainer multiple chances in this competitive maiden race. The Santos-Essenpreis combination with Nella has been particularly effective recently.​

Track Bias Considerations

At six furlongs on Fairmount Park’s dirt surface, inside posts can provide tactical advantages, particularly for horses with early speed. Aideen’s rail draw could prove beneficial if the pace develops favorably.

Final Assessment

This appears to be a two-horse race between the Essenpreis pair of Nella and Aideen, with She’s Takin Charge providing the main danger. Nella’s consistency and favorable connections make her the logical choice, while Aideen offers value as the second choice with improvement expected. She’s Takin Charge brings proven ability and cannot be dismissed despite drawing a wider post.

SELECTION: Nella (3) to win, with Aideen (1) as the value alternative and She’s Takin Charge (4) for the exotics.

RACE 4 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING

This $26,000 allowance optional claiming race for Illinois-bred horses features six runners competing at 6 furlongs on the dirt. The field includes horses that have never won two races or can be claimed for $20,000, creating an interesting mix of conditions and abilities.​

Class Analysis

The race represents a step up in class for some horses while others are seeking their second career victory. The allowance conditions favor horses with upside potential rather than seasoned claiming horses.​

Top Contenders

TOWER GROVE PARK (5) – Co-Favorite

The Scott Becker-trained three-year-old gelding enters off a recent victory at Fairmount Park on August 5th as a 3/1 winner. Sired by Awesome of Course out of Concord Park, he’s bred and owned by Scott Becker and Charles Ritter. Alexander Bendezu retains the mount after their successful partnership. In his last start, he “broke slow” and finished 5th behind Fiveo’clockcharlie but showed improvement from his maiden-breaking performance. The three-year-old weight allowance and proven ability at this track make him a logical choice.​

VOLODYMYR Z (4) – Strong Contender

Another Scott Becker trainee, this three-year-old colt broke his maiden impressively on July 12th at Fairmount Park as the even-money favorite. Sired by Atta Boy Roy out of Zipperini, he “set the pace inside, swung from the three path into the stretch, and drew clear” for his maiden victory. His most recent effort saw him finish a respectable 2nd to Fiveo’clockcharlie, beaten 3¾ lengths while “dueling” early. At 118 pounds with Travis Wales aboard, he receives significant weight relief as a three-year-old colt.​

Secondary Contenders

R U JOKING (2) – Former Winner

The Maximino Quinonez-trained four-year-old gelding captured a maiden special weight at Fairmount Park on June 24th as the 6/5 favorite with Santiago Gonzalez riding. Sired by Practical Joke out of Leisurely Renny, he showed good early speed in that victory. However, recent form has been disappointing with consecutive 6th place finishes at Hawthorne, including his last start where he “led, saved ground, tired”. The Quinonez stable has been performing well recently with a 33% win rate over the last 21 days.​

STANCE (3) – Consistent Performer

John Wainwright’s four-year-old gelding has shown steady improvement with multiple placing efforts at Fairmount Park. His best recent effort was a runner-up finish on May 13th at 12/1 odds with Reynier Arrieta aboard. In his last start, he finished 3rd behind Fiveo’clockcharlie, “3-wide, gave way” but still earned money. Ademar Santos takes over the riding duties, bringing graded stakes experience to the partnership.​

Longshots

DIAMND CON SUERTE (1) – Struggling Veteran

The six-year-old gelding from J. Kevin Wilborn’s barn has been showing poor form recently. In his last effort, he was “6-wide, empty, last of 6, 11½ lengths behind Fiveo’clockcharlie”. At 15/2 morning line odds, he faces a difficult task against this quality field. Javier Tavares rides, but the horse’s recent performances suggest he’s outclassed.​

LAST RETURN (6) – Question Mark

Anthony Blea III trains this four-year-old sired by Risk And Return out of Revolve. Recent form information is limited, but he “broke a step slow, hustled up dueled” in a September maiden race. The Blea stable has been struggling with 14 runs since their last winner. Javour Simpson takes the mount for this longshot.​

Pace Analysis

The pace should be moderate with several horses showing early speed tendencies. Volodymyr Z has demonstrated pace-pressing ability, while R U Joking has shown early speed in the past. Tower Grove Park appears more tactical and could benefit from a contested early pace.​

Key Angles

The Scott Becker stable double provides the strongest angle with both Tower Grove Park and Volodymyr Z representing the leading trainer at Fairmount Park. Becker’s 50 wins from 232 starts and strong earnings make his runners automatic contenders.​

Track Bias Considerations

At six furlongs on Fairmount Park’s dirt surface, tactical speed and the ability to secure good position early can be advantageous. Both Becker horses have shown the ability to adapt to different pace scenarios.

Trainer Insights

Scott Becker continues his dominance at Fairmount Park with two live chances in this race. His stable’s consistency makes both horses legitimate contenders despite different racing styles.​

Maximino Quinonez has been hitting 33% with winners recently, making R U Joking’s chances better than his recent form suggests.​

Jockey Analysis

Alexander Bendezu pairs with Tower Grove Park and has ridden him to victory before, showing good chemistry with Becker’s horses.​

Travis Wales gets the call on Volodymyr Z and was aboard for his maiden victory, suggesting confidence from connections.​

Ademar Santos brings his graded stakes experience to Stance and could provide the tactical riding needed.​

Final Assessment

This race appears to be a battle between the two Scott Becker trainees, with Tower Grove Park having the edge due to his recent victory and proven ability at this level. Volodymyr Z offers excellent value as the second choice with his maiden-breaking performance and favorable weight conditions. R U Joking cannot be completely dismissed despite poor recent form, given his connections’ hot streak.

SELECTION: Tower Grove Park (5) to win, with Volodymyr Z (4) as the value alternative and Stance (3) for the exotics.

WAGERING STRATEGY: Focus on the Becker exacta (5-4 or 4-5) and include Stance in trifecta and superfecta combinations.

RACE 5 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (FILLIES/MARES)

This $17,500 allowance optional claiming race for fillies and mares at 6 furlongs features a competitive field of six runners. The race conditions are for non-winners of two races other than maiden, claiming, waiver, starter or state bred, or those that have never won four races, with an optional claiming price of $20,000.​

Class and Conditions Analysis

The allowance conditions favor improving horses stepping up from claiming ranks, while the optional claiming component adds tactical elements for trainers deciding whether to protect their runners.​

Top Contenders

CANTOO (2) – Morning Line Favorite

The five-year-old mare by Can the Man shows impressive recent form with figures of 122241. Trained by John Wainwright and ridden by Ademar Santos, this combination scored a decisive victory on October 7th as the 4/1 winner. The mare is bred by Terry L. Larkin and owned by Sharon R. Morgan. Her recent victory demonstrates she’s in career-best form and the Santos-Wainwright partnership has been effective. With $13,860 in recent earnings, she enters as the horse to beat.​

AROSE FOR LYLA (1) – Recent Winner

The seven-year-old mare by Majestic Harbor captured her last start on August 23rd, paying $3.80 as the winner with Carlos Joan Ulloa riding for Eddie Essenpreis. This was a significant victory for connections, as she had previously shown mixed form in Canada with finishes ranging from 3rd to 7th. The mature mare brings experience and recent winning form to this competitive field. Her connections chose not to claim protect her, suggesting confidence in her current ability level.​

TOO MUCH TUESDAY (3) – Experienced Contender

Trained by veteran James M. Watkins, who boasts career earnings exceeding $12.2 million from 6,378 starts with a 12% win rate. The four-year-old filly has earned $114,734 lifetime and represents one of the most experienced barns in the race. Felix Julio E. takes the mount, bringing his recent success at Fairmount Park to this partnership. Watkins’ multiple graded stakes winning record and 46% win-place-show percentage in 2025 make this filly a serious threat.​

Secondary Contenders

BELLA FRANCESCA (4) – Award Winner

The four-year-old filly trained by Heather Irion earned the 2024 Indiana Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association award for Champion Sired Claiming Mare. With two wins from 16 starts and $92,815 in earnings, she has proven her ability at this level. Bred by RNB Farms LLC, Richard Kern & Elizabeth Kern, she represents solid regional connections. Her award recognition suggests consistent quality, and Alvin Ortiz rides with confidence from the Irion stable.​

CLIQUE (5) – Stablemate Threat

Also trained by Heather Irion, this four-year-old filly gives the stable a strong entry with two legitimate chances. Reynier Arrieta takes the mount, and the dual representation from the Irion barn suggests both fillies are competitive at this level. Recent form shows a victory on July 5th, indicating she’s capable of winning at this class.​

Longshot

MYSWEETANNALYZE (6) – Value Play

The five-year-old mare by Overanalyze is trained by Frank C. Randazzo Jr. and owned by Kathleen Barbeau. With $6,228 per start earnings and a best speed figure of 76, she brings consistent effort to every race. Javier Tavares rides for the reliable Randazzo stable, which has been competitive in mid-level claiming and allowance races. At longer odds, she could provide value if the pace unfolds favorably.​

Pace Analysis

The six-furlong distance should favor tactical speed, with several horses showing the ability to press early fractions. Cantoo has demonstrated versatility in her running style, while Arose for Lyla showed good gate-to-wire ability in her recent victory. The pace should be honest but not overly quick, setting up for a competitive finish.

Key Angles

Recent Form: Both Cantoo and Arose for Lyla enter off victories, giving them significant form advantages over the field.

Trainer Angles: James Watkins’ experience with graded stakes horses brings a different dimension to Too Much Tuesday’s chances. The Irion stable’s dual entry suggests confidence in their chances.

Jockey Connections: Ademar Santos continues his hot streak with quality mounts, while Felix Julio E. brings his recent Fairmount Park success to the Watkins runner.

Track Bias Considerations

At six furlongs on Fairmount Park’s main track, horses with tactical speed who can secure good early position typically perform well. The rail draw for Arose for Lyla could provide a tactical advantage if the pace develops properly.

Trainer Insights

John Wainwright sends out the recent winner Cantoo with confidence, pairing her with stakes-winning jockey Santos.​

Eddie Essenpreis continues his successful meet with another legitimate chance in Arose for Lyla.​

James Watkins brings his graded stakes experience to this allowance level, suggesting Too Much Tuesday is ready for a career-best effort.​

Heather Irion doubles up with both Bella Francesca and Clique, giving her stable multiple chances at the winner’s circle.​

Final Assessment

This race appears to be a three-horse battle between the recent winners Cantoo and Arose for Lyla, with Too Much Tuesday providing the main threat from the veteran Watkins barn. Cantoo’s recent decisive victory and proven partnership with Santos gives her a slight edge, while Arose for Lyla offers value as a repeat winner. The Irion stable’s dual entry cannot be dismissed, particularly Bella Francesca with her championship credentials.

SELECTION: Cantoo (2) to win, with Arose for Lyla (1) as the value alternative and Too Much Tuesday (3) for the exotics.

WAGERING STRATEGY: Focus on the exacta with Cantoo on top over Arose for Lyla and Too Much Tuesday. Include the Irion stable runners in trifecta combinations as they could provide exotic value.

RACE 6 – CLAIMING ($5,000)

Key Contenders: Lucky Destiny from Scott Becker’s leading barn draws attention. Fetchs Brahm shows consistency at this level.​

Secondary Choices: Brahms Jr. from the Retana stable could factor. Truist adds experience to the mix.

Longshot Consideration: Spin the Boulevard could surprise at generous odds.

Selection: Lucky Destiny with Fetchs Brahm as backup.

RACE 7 – CLAIMING ($10,000)

Key Contenders: Last Minute has shown improvement recently for Hugo Rodriguez. Skylane represents the consistent Randazzo barn.

Secondary Choices: Solomon Vandy brings class and experience. Tricky Moment could be competitive with improvement.

Pace Analysis: Competitive pace expected with several speed horses.

Selection: Last Minute with Skylane for value.

RACE 8 – CLAIMING ($5,000) (FILLIES/MARES)

Key Contenders: I Be Gone brings class and could be competitive with the right trip. Candy Looker from Steve Fridley’s barn shows consistency.

Secondary Choices: Miss Kitty Pie represents the consistent Randazzo stable. Air Gerri could factor at generous odds.

Selection: I Be Gone with Candy Looker as the alternative.

JOCKEY INSIGHTS

Felix Julio E. continues his strong form at Fairmount Park with multiple mounts today. His recent success rate makes him a key player across several races.​

Ademar Santos brings graded stakes winning experience and over $11 million in career earnings. His partnership with quality trainers gives him live chances in multiple races.​

Alexander Bendezu pairs well with Scott Becker’s horses and should be competitive throughout the card.​

Javier Tavares has been riding consistently and represents quality connections.​

TRAINER NOTES

Scott Becker leads Fairmount Park trainers with 50 wins from 232 starts in 2025, posting solid earnings of $920,554. His runners deserve respect across multiple races.​

Ralph Martinez has consistently been one of the leading trainers at Fairmount Park and runs competitive horses at all levels.​

Eddie Essenpreis stable shows consistency and should have live chances with multiple runners.

WAGERING STRATEGIES

Best Bets: Focus on the Scott Becker-trained horses across multiple races given his leading statistics. The Felix Julio E. mounts also show value given his recent success.​

Value Plays: Look for Santos-trained horses at generous odds, particularly in the claiming races where his experience shows. The Randazzo stable runners often provide value in the mid-tier claiming races.

Multi-Race Wagers: Consider keying Scott Becker horses in Pick-3 and Pick-4 sequences given their consistent performance.​

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