Gulfstream Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 16, 2025

Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Gulfstream Park presents a 10-race card on Sunday, November 16, 2025, with first post at 12:20 PM ET. The card features a variety of claiming races, maiden events, allowance races, and concludes with a competitive handicap in Race 9. The program includes action on both dirt and synthetic Tapeta surfaces, giving handicappers multiple ways to approach it.

Several scratches have been announced that will affect wagering strategies. Willingness is scratched from Race 1 as an also-eligible, Better Day and Laser are out of Race 2 due to veterinarian scratches, Without Pretence is scratched from Race 4, Jestina is out of Race 6, both Brooklyn Guy and McKellen are scratched from Race 7, and Awesome Train is scratched from Race 9 by the trainer.

Weather and Track Conditions

Current conditions at Gulfstream Park show the dirt track rated fast and the all-weather Tapeta surface also fast. The weather forecast for November 16 calls for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures reaching a high of 89 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 76 degrees. These favorable conditions should produce consistent racing surfaces throughout the afternoon card.​

The fast track conditions favor early speed on the dirt while the Tapeta surface has shown to be particularly kind to stalkers and horses racing from middle posts at sprint distances. Horses switching from turf or staying on the synthetic surface have shown better results than dirt-to-Tapeta switches, which win at only 9 percent.​

Race 1

Post Time: 12:20 PM ET

Claiming $8,000 at 5.5 furlongs on the synthetic Tapeta surface for three-year-olds and up that have never won three races.​

Pace Analysis

This race sets up as a contested pace scenario with several early speed types. Hollywood Mayhem and Don’t Answer both show early tactical speed and are likely to press the pace from the start. The rail post benefits early speed on the Tapeta at this distance, giving inside runners an edge in the early fractions.

Key Contenders

Don’t Answer from post 8 emerges as the top selection based on handicapper consensus. The five-year-old gelding has the benefit of jockey Edwin Gonzalez and trainer Eniel Cordero, a solid combination at this claiming level. His outside post allows him to survey the speed and make a late move on the synthetic surface which favors stalkers.​

Mister Iceman from post 2 represents solid value as a contender. The five-year-old gelding draws well with Miguel Angel Vasquez aboard for trainer Carlos David, a barn that has consistent success at Gulfstream. His rail-adjacent post position provides tactical flexibility in a contentious pace scenario.​

Secondary Choices

Mackor from post 7 offers an intriguing alternative. The four-year-old gelding has never won three races but shows some form for trainer Daniel Hurtak with jockey Cipriano Gil. His mid-pack running style could benefit if the pace collapses.​

Hollywood Mayhem from post 4 represents another live option for handicappers. The three-year-old colt with Samy Camacho aboard for trainer Antonio Sano sits in a favorable middle post that has shown strong win percentages on the Tapeta.​

Betting Strategy

The exacta offers value keying Don’t Answer over Mister Iceman and Mackor. A trifecta box with Don’t Answer, Mister Iceman, and Hollywood Mayhem provides coverage of the logical contenders. The synthetic surface at 5.5 furlongs favors the rail post, making inside runners must-use horses in multi-race wagers.​

Selections

Win: Don’t Answer

Place: Mister Iceman

Show: Mackor

Race 2

Post Time: 12:50 PM ET

Maiden claiming $25,000 at 1 mile 70 yards on the Tapeta for two-year-olds.​

Pace Analysis

This maiden race features several first-time starters that add uncertainty to pace projections. David Pepperman and Master Chief Mike both show works suggesting early tactical speed. The extended distance of 1 mile 70 yards on the Tapeta should allow stalkers to position themselves favorably, with post 5 historically performing best at this distance.​

Key Contenders

David Pepperman from post 5 stands out as the top selection. The two-year-old colt benefits from the ideal post position at this distance on the Tapeta and has Emisael Jaramillo aboard for trainer Daniel Hurtak. Handicappers have identified this one as a strong value play at 8-1 morning line odds.​

Master Chief Mike from post 3 represents serious competition. The two-year-old colt has Edgard Zayas riding for the powerful Saffie Joseph Jr. barn, a combination that dominates at Gulfstream. The Zayas-Joseph partnership has produced numerous stakes winners and maintains exceptional winning percentages.​

Secondary Choices

Starr of Jericho from post 4 offers value as a secondary option. Samy Camacho rides for trainer Carlos David, and the colt draws well in a middle post that provides tactical options. His connections have shown they can get two-year-olds ready for debut efforts.​

Tennessee Waltz from post 2 merits consideration with Rajiv Maragh aboard for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. The colt benefits from inside speed positioning and a top barn.​

Betting Strategy

Key David Pepperman and Master Chief Mike in exactas with Starr of Jericho and Tennessee Waltz underneath. A trifecta part wheel with David Pepperman and Master Chief Mike on top provides solid coverage. Consider David Pepperman in rolling exotic sequences given his favorable post and value odds.​

Selections

Win: David Pepperman

Place: Master Chief Mike

Show: Starr of Jericho

Race 3

Post Time: 1:19 PM ET

Starter optional claiming $35,000 at 6 furlongs on the dirt for two-year-olds.​

Pace Analysis

Drama and Crazy Red both show early speed that should contest the lead from the start. The 6-furlong dirt distance at Gulfstream heavily favors inside posts and early speed, with posts 1-4 winning at 15 percent compared to just 3.8 percent for outside posts. The pace should be contested but honest.​

Key Contenders

Drama from post 1 emerges as the consensus top choice. The two-year-old filly has Micah Husbands aboard for Saffie Joseph Jr., and the rail post provides a significant edge at 6 furlongs on dirt. The inside post wins 22 percent of dirt sprints at Gulfstream, more than double the second-best post.​

Pronti O Meno from post 5 represents a strong alternative with Edgard Zayas riding for Kelly Breen. The two-year-old colt has tactical speed and draws a middle post that offers flexibility. Brisnet handicappers highlighted this one as a spot play.​

Secondary Choices

Crazy Red from post 3 offers solid value for trainer Monica McGoey. The gelding draws well inside with Rajiv Maragh aboard and should get a good early position. His inside draw provides a tactical advantage in the speed-favoring setup.​

The Big Ben from post 4 provides additional coverage with apprentice Yolber Torres getting the call. The weight allowance combined with an inside post makes this gelding a live longshot.​

Betting Strategy

Drama represents the single in multi-race wagers given her rail post advantage and Joseph connections. Key Drama on top of exactas with Pronti O Meno and Crazy Red. The trifecta should include The Big Ben as a saver given the apprentice allowance.​

Selections

Win: Drama

Place: Pronti O Meno

Show: Crazy Red

Race 4

Post Time: 1:48 PM ET

Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs on dirt for three-year-olds and up.​

Pace Analysis

Swirvin shows clear early speed from post 3 and should establish position from the start. Admiral Mo also has tactical quickness that could press. The 6-furlong dirt sprint again heavily favors inside posts and early speed at Gulfstream, with the rail and inside draws providing substantial advantages.​

Key Contenders

Swirvin from post 3 stands out as the logical favorite. The five-year-old gelding has Edwin Gonzalez aboard for trainer Eniel Cordero and draws perfectly to use his speed. His inside post provides a clear path to the lead in a pace-favoring setup.​

Admiral Mo from post 4 represents the strongest competition. The three-year-old colt has Edgard Zayas riding for Kelly Breen, and his tactical speed should allow him to stalk the pace. Zayas maintains exceptional winning percentages at Gulfstream.​

Secondary Choices

Sound of the Beast from post 7 offers value despite the outside draw. The four-year-old colt shows improving form for trainer Rohan Crichton with Anthony Thomas aboard. His closing kick could be effective if the pace collapses.​

Alarik from post 5 provides additional coverage. The Chilean import for Amador Sanchez has Emisael Jaramillo in the irons and shows workmanlike efforts.​

Betting Strategy

Swirvin represents a strong single in Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences given his inside post edge. Box Swirvin and Admiral Mo in exactas while using Sound of the Beast underneath in trifectas. Consider Admiral Mo for place and show value given the Zayas factor.​

Selections

Win: Swirvin

Place: Admiral Mo

Show: Sound of the Beast

Race 5

Post Time: 2:17 PM ET

Maiden claiming $12,500 at 5 furlongs on the synthetic Tapeta for three-year-olds and up.​

Pace Analysis

What It Tiz and Freedom Street both show early speed that should contest the lead. At 5 furlongs on the Tapeta, the rail post has historically shown the best win percentage. This sprint distance should produce an honest, contested pace that sets up late-runners.​

Key Contenders

What It Tiz from post 7 emerges as a strong contender despite the outside post. The three-year-old gelding has Edwin Gonzalez riding for trainer Amador Sanchez and shows consistent efforts. His tactical speed should allow him to secure position despite the wide draw.​

Freedom Street from post 8 represents serious competition with Micah Husbands aboard for Saffie Joseph Jr. The trainer-jockey combination provides confidence, and the colt should have tactical speed to overcome the outside post.​

Secondary Choices

Authentic Honour from post 1 offers value from the rail. The three-year-old gelding has Samy Camacho riding for Douglas Nunn, and the rail post provides a clear edge at this distance on the Tapeta.​

Enzito from post 2 provides additional coverage adjacent to the rail. Cipriano Gil rides for Victor Barboza Jr., and the inside draw helps in this maiden claiming heat.​

Betting Strategy

Box What It Tiz and Freedom Street in exactas while including Authentic Honour and Enzito underneath for trifecta coverage. The Joseph barn with Husbands aboard makes Freedom Street a must-use in multi-race wagers. Consider place and show parlays on the top two selections given the maiden claiming unpredictability.​

Selections

Win: What It Tiz

Place: Freedom Street

Show: Authentic Honour

Race 6

Post Time: 2:47 PM ET

Maiden special weight at 7 furlongs on dirt for two-year-old fillies with a $70,000 purse.​

Pace Analysis

Turkish Pistachio and Bodacious Queen both show works suggesting early tactical speed. The 7-furlong dirt distance maintains the inside post advantage at Gulfstream, though not as pronounced as 6-furlong sprints. This maiden special weight should produce quality performances from several well-bred fillies.​

Key Contenders

Tahlequah from post 9 stands out despite the outside draw. The two-year-old filly has Edgard Zayas aboard for Saffie Joseph Jr., the dominant combination at the meet. The Zayas-Joseph partnership has produced multiple stakes winners and wins at exceptional rates.​

Turkish Pistachio from post 8 represents strong competition with Samy Camacho riding for Carlos David. The filly draws well to use her speed and should secure good position.​

Secondary Choices

Quality of Essence from post 7 offers value with Rajiv Maragh aboard for Anthony Margotta Jr. The filly has the breeding and connections to run well in her debut.​

Better With Vino from post 6 provides additional coverage, also trained by Margotta with Miguel Angel Vasquez in the irons.​

Longshots

Jestina from post 5 would have offered value but has been scratched by the veterinarian. Bodacious Queen from post 2 provides a live longshot alternative with tactical speed and an inside draw for Emisael Jaramillo.​

Betting Strategy

Key Tahlequah on top despite the outside post given the Zayas-Joseph dominance. Box Tahlequah with Turkish Pistachio in exactas and include Quality of Essence and Better With Vino in trifectas. Consider Tahlequah as a single in Pick 3 sequences given the powerful connections.​

Selections

Win: Tahlequah

Place: Turkish Pistachio

Show: Quality of Essence

Race 7

Post Time: 3:16 PM ET

Allowance optional claiming $25,000 at 1 mile on dirt for three-year-olds and up.​

Pace Analysis

Racing Driver from post 1 shows early tactical speed that should establish position from the rail. The 1-mile dirt distance is a two-turn route where inside posts dominate at Gulfstream, with posts 1-3 each winning at 18 percent. Horses outside post 7 win only 5 percent of two-turn dirt routes.​

Key Contenders

Accelerize from post 6 emerges as the top selection despite Brooklyn Guy and McKellen being scratched. The three-year-old colt has Edgard Zayas riding for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, a powerful combination. His tactical versatility and quality connections make him formidable.​

Racing Driver from post 1 represents serious competition with Joe Bravo aboard for Gustavo Delgado. The rail post provides a significant advantage in two-turn dirt routes at Gulfstream.​

Secondary Choices

Camp Evans from post 2 offers value with Micah Husbands riding for Saffie Joseph Jr. The inside post provides tactical advantages in the route setup.​

God’s Timing from post 7 provides coverage with Samy Camacho aboard for Saffie Joseph Jr. Despite the outside post, the Joseph barn gives this horse credibility.​

Betting Strategy

Key Accelerize and Racing Driver in exactas given their post position advantages. Include Camp Evans in trifectas as a Joseph runner with an inside draw. The two-turn dirt route heavily favors inside posts, making horses outside post 7 pass plays.​

Selections

Win: Accelerize

Place: Racing Driver

Show: Camp Evans

Race 8

Post Time: 3:46 PM ET

Allowance optional claiming $75,000 at 5.5 furlongs on synthetic Tapeta for two-year-old fillies.​

Pace Analysis

Golden Beach and Fire On the Wire both show early speed that should contest the lead. At 5.5 furlongs on the Tapeta, the rail post historically shows the best win percentage. This allowance race features quality two-year-old fillies with early speed that should produce honest fractions.​

Key Contenders

Mystical Belle from post 8 stands out as the top choice. The two-year-old filly has Edgard Zayas aboard for Saffie Joseph Jr., the meet’s dominant combination. Despite the outside post, the Zayas-Joseph partnership provides substantial confidence.​

Golden Beach from post 1 represents strong competition from the rail. The filly has Samy Camacho riding for Michael Dini and draws the ideal post position for this Tapeta sprint.​

Secondary Choices

Dee’s On Dow from post 6 offers value with Jose Morelos aboard for Jorge Delgado. The filly draws well in a middle post that provides tactical options on the synthetic surface.​

Spinelli from post 4 provides additional coverage with Samuel Marin riding for Joseph Orseno. Her middle post allows flexibility to track the pace.​

Betting Strategy

Box Mystical Belle and Golden Beach in exactas while including Dee’s On Dow and Spinelli in trifectas. The Zayas-Joseph combination makes Mystical Belle a must-use in Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences despite the outside post. Consider the rail post Golden Beach as a single alternative given the synthetic surface bias.​

Selections

Win: Mystical Belle

Place: Golden Beach

Show: Dee’s On Dow

Race 9

Post Time: 4:16 PM ET

Handicap at 1 1/16 miles on dirt with a $70,000 purse for three-year-olds and up.​

Pace Analysis

Lure Him In shows early speed from post 1 that should establish position on the rail. This two-turn dirt route heavily favors inside posts at Gulfstream, with posts 1-3 combining to win 53 percent of these races. The handicap conditions should produce quality performances from proven winners.​

Key Contenders

Steal Sunshine from post 4 emerges as the consensus favorite. The six-year-old horse has Edgard Zayas riding for Bobby Dibona and carries 122 pounds. Despite carrying top weight, the quality connections and inside post provide substantial advantages.​

Lightning Tones from post 5 represents serious competition with Miguel Angel Vasquez aboard for Jose Castro. The five-year-old gelding also carries 122 pounds but shows consistent form.​

Secondary Choices

Lure Him In from post 1 offers value from the rail despite being an eight-year-old gelding. Edwin Gonzalez rides for Sam Wilensky, and the rail post provides a significant edge in two-turn routes.​

Single Dot Yaht from post 6 provides coverage with Micah Husbands aboard for Rohan Crichton. The five-year-old horse draws reasonably well inside.​

Longshots

Awesome Train has been scratched by the trainer. Virginia City from post 3 offers longshot value with apprentice Yolber Torres getting the call for Diane Morici.​

Betting Strategy

Key Steal Sunshine on top in exactas with Lightning Tones and Lure Him In. Include Single Dot Yaht in trifectas for coverage. The two-turn dirt route setup makes inside posts critical, giving Steal Sunshine and Lure Him In substantial advantages.​

Selections

Win: Steal Sunshine

Place: Lightning Tones

Show: Lure Him In

Race 10

Post Time: 4:46 PM ET

Claiming $12,500 at 5.5 furlongs on synthetic Tapeta for fillies and mares.​

Pace Analysis

Blond Jak and Gimme Some Luck both show tactical speed that should contest the early lead. At 5.5 furlongs on the Tapeta, the rail post shows the best historical win percentage. This claiming finale should produce an honest pace with multiple speed types.​

Key Contenders

Blond Jak from post 6 stands out as the top selection. The three-year-old filly has Emisael Jaramillo riding for Daniel Hurtak and draws well in a middle post. Her tactical speed should allow her to secure good position on the synthetic surface.​

Gimme Some Luck from post 4 represents strong competition with Rajiv Maragh aboard for Collin Maragh. The three-year-old filly draws well inside and shows consistent efforts.​

Secondary Choices

Leprechauna from post 1 offers value from the rail. The three-year-old filly has Miguel Angel Vasquez riding for Dante Zanelli Jr., and the rail provides a clear advantage at this distance.​

Candy Buzz from post 7 provides additional coverage with Edwin Gonzalez aboard for Jeff Engler.​

Betting Strategy

Box Blond Jak and Gimme Some Luck in exactas while including Leprechauna and Candy Buzz in trifectas. Consider keying the rail horse Leprechauna in rolling exotic carryovers given the synthetic surface bias favoring inside posts. The 5.5-furlong Tapeta distance strongly favors the rail position.​

Selections

Win: Blond Jak

Place: Gimme Some Luck

Show: Leprechauna

Jockey Notes and Insights

Edgard Zayas continues his dominance at Gulfstream Park with nine career riding titles at the track. His partnership with trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has produced exceptional results, winning at rates that far exceed track averages. Zayas competes in Race 2 aboard Master Chief Mike, Race 4 on Admiral Mo, Race 6 with Tahlequah, Race 7 aboard Accelerize, Race 8 on Mystical Belle, and Race 9 with favorite Steal Sunshine.​

Miguel Angel Vasquez rides in six races today and shows strong statistics on both dirt and synthetic surfaces at Gulfstream. His mounts include Mister Iceman in Race 1, Better With Vino in Race 6, Beastly Speed in Race 7, Fire On the Wire in Race 8, Lightning Tones in Race 9, and Leprechauna in Race 10.​

Rajiv Maragh brings experience and tactical savvy to his mounts. He competes aboard Tennessee Waltz in Race 2, Crazy Red in Race 3, Flying Liam in Race 4, Gimme Some Luck in Race 10, and Quality of Essence in Race 6.​

Edwin Gonzalez has solid statistics at the claiming levels and rides Don’t Answer in Race 1, Swirvin in Race 4, What It Tiz in Race 5, Lure Him In in Race 9, and Candy Buzz in Race 10.​

Micah Husbands represents quality connections with mounts for Saffie Joseph Jr. He rides Drama in Race 3, Freedom Street in Race 5, Tahlequah in a different mount, Camp Evans in Race 7, and Single Dot Yaht in Race 9.​

Apprentice Yolber Torres continues developing after recent double victories and gets the call on Prince David in Race 1, The Big Ben in Race 3, Without Pretence who is scratched from Race 4, Zolene in Race 8, and Virginia City in Race 9.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Saffie Joseph Jr. maintains his position as the dominant trainer at Gulfstream Park, approaching his 13th consecutive meet title. His stable quality and preparation give his horses significant advantages throughout the card. Joseph runners include Master Chief Mike in Race 2, Drama in Race 3, Freedom Street in Race 5, both Camp Evans and God’s Timing in Race 7, and Mystical Belle in Race 8.​

The Joseph barn shows exceptional statistics when paired with Edgard Zayas, combining for numerous stakes victories during recent meets. Their partnership produces win rates well above track averages.​

Carlos David sends out multiple runners including Mister Iceman in Race 1, Starr of Jericho and Laser who is scratched from Race 2, Turkish Pistachio in Race 6, and Breezey Bella in Race 10.​

Jose Francisco D’Angelo competes with several runners including Gallant Knight in Race 1, Double Miles in Race 2, McKellen who is scratched from Race 7, and Zolene in Race 8.​

Kelly Breen sends out quality stock including Pronti O Meno in Race 3 and Admiral Mo in Race 4, both drawing favorable posts for their respective distances.​

Todd Pletcher, the Hall of Fame trainer, sends out Accelerize in Race 7 with Edgard Zayas aboard, a combination that demands respect in any allowance race.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Pick 3 spanning Races 7-8-9 offers exceptional value anchoring Accelerize in Race 7, using Mystical Belle and Golden Beach in Race 8, and keying Steal Sunshine in Race 9. This sequence features quality horses with inside post advantages and dominant jockey-trainer combinations.​

The Pick 4 covering Races 6-7-8-9 provides a solid investment opportunity using Tahlequah as a single in Race 6, spreading Accelerize and Racing Driver in Race 7, boxing Mystical Belle and Golden Beach in Race 8, and using Steal Sunshine with Lightning Tones in Race 9.​

Daily Double opportunities exist throughout the card, particularly the Race 8-9 double keying Mystical Belle with Steal Sunshine, both representing dominant connections and favorable racing conditions.​

Single race value plays include David Pepperman in Race 2 at 8-1 morning line odds with the perfect post position for the distance, Pronti O Meno in Race 3 highlighted by Brisnet handicappers, and Blond Jak in Race 10 offering solid closing race value.​

The two-turn dirt route bias at Gulfstream creates betting opportunities by eliminating horses outside post 7 and focusing wagering dollars on inside runners. This statistical edge applies to Races 7 and 9, where inside posts win at dramatically higher rates.​

Surface switches merit careful attention, as horses moving from turf or staying on the Tapeta win at 13-14 percent while dirt-to-Tapeta moves win only 9 percent with negative return on investment.​

The Zayas-Joseph combination in Races 2, 6, 7, and 8 provides must-use horses in multi-race wagers given their exceptional winning percentages and meet dominance.

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback