Laurel Park – Pick Pony Daily Horse Racing Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for September 26, 2025

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Laurel Park hosts a competitive ten-race card on September 26, 2025, featuring a blend of turf and dirt contests for fillies, mares, and open company, highlighted by a variety of claiming, allowance, and starter optional claiming conditions. A mix of wide fields and some short, focused maiden groups ensures an engaging afternoon of racing action.

Race day is expected to be clear and seasonably mild, with mid-70s temperatures and little chance of rain. Track conditions are forecast to be fast on the dirt and firm on the turf, ideal for front-runners and horses up near the pace on both surfaces, though the rail settings on turf (17 and 70 feet in places) may slightly favor outside runners or horses able to save ground from mid-pack.

Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Flame Dancer stands as the key contender—she’s in strong form and figures to stalk or press a projected hot early tempo. J Z’s Last Schance has burned bettors before but often finds a minor award; a clean trip from mid-pack gives her another shot. Lady d’Oro, returning off a layoff, boasts solid New York lines and picks up a hot jockey/trainer combo (Sanchez/Pino). Frappart could sneak into exotics if the speed collapses.

The expected honest fractions up front set up Flame Dancer’s off-the-pace style and give Lady d’Oro a chance to finish with authority. J Z’s Last Schance must avoid wide, ground-losing trips. Inoel Beato, aboard Kissed At Dawn, comes in from a recent vet scratch but could improve if taking to the surface switch. Wagering angles suggest keying Flame Dancer on top, but using Lady d’Oro and J Z’s Last Schance underneath is prudent.

Top Selection: Flame Dancer
Secondary Choices: Lady d’Oro, J Z’s Last Schance
Longshot: Frappart

Race 2: Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

This small field is full of horses with proven inconsistency. She Got the Munni could be the controlling speed, looking to take them gate to wire if left alone in a paceless group. Lorraine’s Way brings the best recent figures and gets a strong pace setup. Miss Banks appeals as a late-running sort—her light weight could help if the leaders tire. Favor forward placement; horses rallying from far back have not been successful in similar races.

Top Selection: She Got the Munni
Secondary Choice: Lorraine’s Way
Value: Miss Banks

Race 3: Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Cachinnation should get a stalking trip from the inside post and tends to fire fresh. Still Game is logical off the drop, and Any Fools Gold is improving and draws a decent post for tactics. Lazy Days shapes as a potential pace factor, along with Sippin’ Time and Hot Boss, but several here have a “nearly” habit. Watch out for horses like Regal Miss Lily as late exotics fancies. With so many in with similar figures, tactics will matter and post positions will be key on the 70’ rail configuration.

Top Selection: Cachinnation
Secondary Choice: Still Game
Longshot: Any Fools Gold

Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

Race 4 at Laurel Park on September 26, 2025, features an allowance optional claiming event at 1 1/16 miles on dirt for fillies and mares three years old and upward. The field brings a mix of tactical speed, stamina, and recent class relief, poised for a competitive contest.

Key Contenders

Atlas Strong shapes as the standout on paper, possessing consistently fast speed figures and the stamina to handle route distances. She enters off solid efforts and boasts a win percentage near 33%, indicating reliability at this class level. Haint Blue offers a tactical running style, breaking well and tracking pacesetters before unleashing a steady finish. Estocada is another with noteworthy stamina and decent early pace, making her a logical contender among those not dropping for tags.

Secondary Choices

Lovely Charm comes in under the care of Claudio Gonzalez, a respected trainer with a good strike rate at Laurel Park this season. Golden Sword, whose last outing was interrupted by a vet scratch, has shown promise at similar levels, and blinkers could help her focus. Navani for Horacio Karamanos often finds herself close in these races, finishing well when allowed to settle early. Trainer notes suggest Golden Sword is ready to fire, and Lovely Charm could show improvement second off the layoff.

Longshots to Consider

I Can Run offers the potential for a price, often running close against similar company and holding her own in strong pace scenarios. While win rate is limited, exotics consideration is warranted if the pace melts down or several favorites under-perform.

Pace Analysis

The projected pace appears honest, with Atlas Strong and Estocada both capable of setting or pressing moderate fractions. If front-runners duels occur, stalkers like Haint Blue and Lovely Charm should benefit. Horses rallying from far back have not had much success at this distance recently, reinforcing preferences for tactical speed.

Key Angles

Trainer Antonio Machado, handling both Estocada and Golden Sword, excels with route types and fresh horses. Sanchez, aboard Lady d’Oro earlier on the card, holds a potent strike rate when paired with Michael Pino, indicating positive rider/trainer synergies that might pay off in other races today.

Wagering Angles and Suggested Picks

The recommended approach is to key Atlas Strong on top, use Haint Blue and Estocada underneath, and round out tickets with Lovely Charm and I Can Run for coverage at decent odds. Exotics players should prioritize those with tactical speed, and value seekers can look to Golden Sword if odds drift up pre-race, particularly if positive physical cues are observed during the warmup.

Top Selection: Atlas Strong
Secondary Choices: Haint Blue, Estocada
Longshot: I Can Run

This event presents opportunities for exactas and trifectas, emphasizing tactical speed, stamina, and proven local form. Those seeking to beat the favorite can focus on spreading underneath in multi-race wagers.

Race 5: Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile (Turf)

Kobe’s Hope and Lilliput both bring good turf form and sit in handy posts for stalk-and-pounce journeys. Tea Rose, if drawing in, projects for a late rally, and Mischievous Trick could step forward second off the bench. Queen’s Blessing is an improving sort for Linda Albert, while Selvaggia could surprise at a price for Michael Pino. The rail position (17 feet) may hamper deep closers, favoring runners in the second flight.

Top Selection: Lilliput
Secondary Choices: Kobe’s Hope, Tea Rose
Longshot: Selvaggia

Race 6: Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

Race 6 at Laurel Park today is a maiden claiming event for two-year-old colts and geldings, contested at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt. The field features several inexperienced runners and a pair of Jamie Ness trainees coupled as the 8-13 entries, making for a highly competitive dash with significant focus on first and second-time starters.

Key Contenders

Hard Freeze, one half of the Ness entry, enters with the best connections and likely improvement off a debut effort. The stable has been excelling with maidens at this level, and the rail draw gives this colt an edge in securing a strong early position. His stablemate, Impressiveness, should also be respected—if one scratches, strong preference shifts to the other. Golden Sand, trained by Claudio Gonzalez, is another debut runner with sharp recent works and could fire on debut from a midpack draw. Paintmymasterpeace comes in off a solid first start and projects for forward placement, which usually fares well at this trip. Birdy Whisper also has tactical speed and could seize the lead if left alone.

Secondary Choices

Whatchasaynow carried speed into the stretch on debut before fading and may benefit from a better trip. Hell Ofa Hillbilly is another speed presence that could hang in for a piece at a big number. Among debut runners, attention is due to any tote action on R Thunderstruck and R Parrot Head, who both hail from capable but lower-profile barns and might surprise with positive pre-race physicals.

Longshots to Consider

Plenty On Tap and Paid Vacation lack strong preparatory works or connections but could still sneak into superfecta slots if a late pace collapse occurs. Ski Hazard, as a long-priced closer, could benefit if the favorites go too fast early.

Pace Analysis

The projected pace favors horses breaking sharply and maintaining inside position, as the race shape sees Hard Freeze, Birdy Whisper, and Paintmymasterpeace pressing the issue from the jump. If the early tempo is too ambitious, midpack runners like Golden Sand or Off-the-pace types from the Ness barn can benefit late.

Key Angles

Trainer Jamie Ness boasts a high win percentage with maiden claimers and takes advantage of the Maryland condition to run strong two-year-olds in paired entries. Claudio Gonzalez also places his runners wisely, having a particularly strong record with juveniles on debut.

Wagering Angles and Suggested Picks

The best approach is to key the Ness entry (Hard Freeze and Impressiveness) on top while using Golden Sand and Paintmymasterpeace underneath. For value plays, Whatchasaynow and Hell Ofa Hillbilly offer upside in deeper exotics. Watch the tote for any late action on the debut runners, which would confirm live chances. Exacta and trifecta wagers favoring favorites over mid-priced runners are the most logical, with superfectas rounded out by longshots if the field remains intact.

Top Selection: Hard Freeze (entry)
Secondary Choices: Golden Sand, Paintmymasterpeace
Longshot: Whatchasaynow

Expect fast fractions and a wire-to-wire winner or a closer picking up the pieces late if the pace boils over. Connections and recent debut form tip the scales in favor of the favorites, but the race offers opportunities for solid payoffs underneath.

Race 7: Starter Optional Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

Modica is the key pace player and could take them a long way on the firm lawn. Dr. Hyde offers consistency and strong finish if there’s a meltdown. Italian Symphony’s last was better than it looked—draws well, but check for recent vet observations. Stellar Lute and Cap’n Dusty look set for exotics. Watch for inside speed bias, especially late in the card.

Top Selection: Modica
Secondary Choices: Dr. Hyde, Italian Symphony
Longshot: Cap’n Dusty

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

Race 8 at Laurel Park on September 26, 2025, is an allowance optional claiming sprint at 6 furlongs on the dirt for fillies and mares three years old and upward. The field brings quality and depth, featuring several up-and-coming runners and proven allowance types, setting up for a fiercely contested mid-card feature.

Key Contenders

Cap Classique lines up as the likely favorite, bringing consistently strong recent speed figures and a proven track record at Laurel. She offers tactical speed, drawing well on the rail, which allows her to either seize the lead or sit in the pocket behind the pace. Trainer Brittany Russell is in excellent form this meet, and the Russell/Russell (jockey/trainer) team excels in similar spots.

Top Gun Girl represents the main danger, exiting races with tough company for trainer Jamie Ness. She can stalk or press the pace and boasts several fast works coming in, indicating readiness. Goodnightngodbless is another logical contender, a steadily improving four-year-old with solid late punch who could capitalize if the leaders overdo it early.

Secondary Choices

Cluck Cluck is a versatile sort for Claudio Gonzalez and could factor if able to secure position from the outside. Kokopelli Girl brings back class and will be involved early, though her stamina past the five-furlong mark has sometimes proven suspect. Kissedbyanangel prefers a chase-and-pounce trip and may round out trifectas and superfectas if she sits a clean trip.

Longshots to Consider

Safe Trust is lightly raced, showing some initial promise and carries low weight, but will need to improve to contend against proven types. Watch for any tote action on this one; Corrales barn can surprise when least expected.

Pace and Race Shape

With several runners boasting early speed, expect an honest—and potentially contested—pace. Cap Classique and Top Gun Girl may vie for the early lead, but horses able to sit just off the speed, such as Goodnightngodbless or Cluck Cluck, will be in perfect position if the top duo gets embroiled in a pace duel. History suggests that tactical sprinters or those just off the leaders’ flanks tend to do best over this main track and configuration.

Key Angles

Trainer stats highlight Russell and Ness as top options in this type of allowance sprint, typically capitalizing on tactical advantages and sharp morning drills. Jockey Sheldon Russell (Cap Classique) and Jaime Rodriguez (Goodnightngodbless) should always be considered—both riders have performed well this season in similar situations.

Wagering Angles and Suggested Picks

Cap Classique holds a slight edge both on paper and due to favorable conditions, making her the top pick for all horizontal and vertical wagers. Use Top Gun Girl and Goodnightngodbless underneath in exactas and trifectas. Deeper exotics should include Cluck Cluck and Kissedbyanangel. Connections, pace, and local form all suggest focusing on the logical trio, with small plays for upside in longer combinations.

Top Selection: Cap Classique
Secondary Choices: Top Gun Girl, Goodnightngodbless
Longshot: Cluck Cluck

The race should be decided in the stretch, with the top pair turning back rivals but needing to withstand the late run of improving closers. Major value comes if the pace collapses—and including off-the-pace types in exotics may unlock strong payoffs.

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Race 9 at Laurel Park on September 26, 2025, is an allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. This field is deep and well-matched, featuring a mix of hard-knocking older geldings and some live younger horses stepping up against seasoned rivals.

Key Contenders

Mistical Curlin heads the field as the likely favorite, coming off a strong recent win on dirt and bringing established class to the grass. He runs for Jamie Ness, one of Laurel’s most successful trainers this season, and projects to take up a mid-pack position before launching a bid turning for home. Beuys (IRE) is another main contender: he finished runner-up at Saratoga in tough company and is proven over this class level; look for a stalking trip or late rally depending on how the turf is playing. Boppy O ships in for Richard Sillaman off a competitive try at Presque Isle Downs and has the tactical speed to ensure a good trip. Recent trainer stats show Sillaman’s barn heating up; any positive tote action is a good sign.

Secondary Choices

Can Group, another Ness trainee, adds depth to the entry as a potential pace player or support for the favorite. Curly Larry and Mo for Brittany Russell always attracts support, but the gelding is win-shy and finds more minor awards than victories. Wow Whata Summer, often a late closer, may get an ideal setup if the leaders duel through fast fractions.

Longshots to Consider

Stormy Flight and Mosler Time could surprise at square odds, especially if the race develops a strong outside rally bias, while Villain, trained by Lindsay Schultz, is infrequently the winner but often hits the superfecta with a sustained mid-race run.

Pace and Race Shape

There’s honest speed signed on, led by Can Group, Cap’n Dusty, and possibly Boppy O; however, most contenders prefer a stalking or closing trip. Mistical Curlin and Beuys (IRE) will benefit from a well-timed stretch move, while Curly Larry and Mo and Stormy Flight need to stay within striking range early.

Angles and Connections

Trainer Jamie Ness continues to churn out winners in both allowance and claiming company, especially on turf. Brittany Russell remains a perennial top-ten local trainer, and her runners are always fit and competitive in route turf events. Horses with recent turf form or those dropping from higher class levels warrant extra attention in horizontal wagers.

Wagering Angles and Suggested Picks

The strongest play is to key Mistical Curlin and Beuys (IRE) in all exotics, using Boppy O and Curly Larry and Mo as secondary options underneath. Wow Whata Summer and Mosler Time add longshot potential for superfectas. Exactas and trifectas focusing on stamina and experienced turf runners look most attractive, with the potential for a decent payout if favorites falter.

Top Selection: Mistical Curlin
Secondary Choices: Beuys (IRE), Boppy O
Longshots: Wow Whata Summer, Mosler Time

Expect tactical rides and a strong late run to decide this competitive turf allowance, with horses able to adapt to pace dynamics holding the advantage as the field turns into the stretch.

Race 10: Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

Tipmanee should be respected for a barn that scores with this kind. Zirconia shapes as a first-time starter with upside, and Ginger Snap is eligible to improve with experience. Mo Probable is logical for exotics, especially if the pace comes apart.

Top Selection: Tipmanee
Secondary Choice: Zirconia
Longshot: Ginger Snap

Jockey Notes and Insights

Mychel Sanchez and Jaime Rodriguez remain in hot form locally, showing strong ROI on live mounts. Jeiron Barbosa is a rising star with a strong closing kick, especially on turf. Watch for any late changes—several rides are doubles for connections.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jamie Ness continues to dominate with solid claiming types and can move up a firster or recent claim. Michael Pino excels in turf sprints and layoff returns, while Arnaud Delacour is especially tough with lightly raced fillies in starter company. Keep an eye on Kathleen O’Connell’s new shippers—she often gets a quick response in the first local start.

Value Plays and Wagering Strategies

Multi-race exotics like the Early and Late Pick 5s are attractive with vulnerable favorites and deep fields, especially in the turf races. The best value opportunity may be playing against overbet horses in full fields (Races 3 and 5), using lightly raced or improving runners underneath. Key horses to build tickets around include Flame Dancer (Race 1), Atlas Strong (Race 4), and Modica (Race 7); main value targets are Lady d’Oro (Race 1) and Selvaggia (Race 5).

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