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Laurel Park presents a stellar Saturday program headlined by four stakes races: the $100,000 Robert T. Manfuso Stakes, the $100,000 Carousel Stakes, the $100,000 Politely Stakes, and the $100,000 Howard and Sondra Bender Memorial. The nine-race card has drawn competitive fields with several graded-stakes caliber runners, most notably the fan-favorite Post Time in the Manfuso. With significant class relief in the early maiden events and high-quality stakes action in the late Pick 5, the card offers excellent betting opportunities. First post is 12:00 PM EST.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Laurel, Maryland calls for cloudy skies with temperatures hovering in the mid-to-upper 40s. There is a slight chance of showers later in the afternoon, which could affect the final races. The dirt track is expected to be fast. Handicappers should monitor the track for any potential speed bias, as the main track has recently played fair but can occasionally favor inside speed in sprint races.
Race 1
Post Time
12:00 PM
Pace Analysis
Close Up and Daytime Drama should show early initiative in this route event. With a lack of dedicated speed types signed on, the pace may be moderate, giving an advantage to those who can establish position early before the first turn.
Key Contenders
Autumn in Vermont (3) takes a logical class drop from the $15,000 maiden claiming level to $12,500. Her recent efforts suggest she fits well with this group, and the move to a route of ground should suit her running style. Daytime Drama (2) arrives from New York and drops into a realistic spot for trainer Bruce Levine. She has shown flashes of ability that would make her formidable here.
Secondary Choices
Tea Rose (10) draws the outside post but gets a positive jockey switch to Jose Vargas. As an older mare in a field of mostly three-year-olds, her experience counts. Close Up (1) draws the rail and will likely save ground throughout.
Longshots
Feel the Bolt (4) gets in light at 111 lbs and could wake up with the weight break.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Autumn in Vermont and Daytime Drama in the exactas. A small win bet on Autumn in Vermont is warranted.
Selections
Win: Autumn in Vermont
Place: Daytime Drama
Show: Tea Rose
Race 2
Post Time
12:30 PM
Pace Analysis
Winning Trip and Elvis Himself look to be the primary speed in this seven-furlong sprint. The pace should be honest but not scorching, potentially setting up for a stalker like Gluckstadt.
Key Contenders
Gluckstadt (3) has been consistent and should get a perfect trip just off the leaders. Trainer Lacey Gaudet does well with this type of runner. Elvis Himself (2) has speed and the rail-adjacent draw to use it. If he clears early, he could be tough to catch.
Secondary Choices
Winning Trip (1) is the other speed threat and must be respected from the inside post. Intrepid’s Legacy (5) provides a closing threat if the pace heats up more than expected.
Betting Strategy
Box the top three in exactas. Gluckstadt offers the best value proposition as a horse likely to sit the trip.
Selections
Win: Gluckstadt
Place: Elvis Himself
Show: Winning Trip
Race 3
Post Time
1:00 PM
Pace Analysis
In this maiden special weight for 2-year-olds, Ballinaclash and Pont Aven are likely to show speed. With young horses, the break is critical, and those with gate schooling often prevail.
Key Contenders
Pont Aven (8) draws the outside which can be advantageous for a young horse to avoid kickback. Trainer Phillip Capuano has his babies ready to run. Ballinaclash (1) from the Phil Schoenthal barn draws the rail and will have to be sent to hold position.
Secondary Choices
Matthew’s Ticket (4) and Chalk Talk (5) represent solid connections and should be included in multi-race wagers.
Betting Strategy
A win bet on Pont Aven and an exacta box with Ballinaclash.
Selections
Win: Pont Aven
Place: Ballinaclash
Show: Matthew’s Ticket
Race 4
Post Time
1:35 PM
Pace Analysis
Seven’s Eleven and Freeze the Fire are legitimate speed horses. This six-furlong sprint should feature a hot pace, potentially setting it up for a closer.
Key Contenders
Freeze the Fire (3) is a class act who runs well fresh. He has back class that exceeds this field’s average. Seven’s Eleven (1) is a hard-knocking sprinter who loves this track and distance. He will be the one to catch.
Secondary Choices
Swill (6) is a dangerous veteran who can pick up the pieces if the top two duel each other into submission. Gun It (5) is another old timer with plenty of back class.
Betting Strategy
This feels like a two-horse race between Freeze the Fire and Seven’s Eleven. An exacta box is the safest play.
Selections
Win: Freeze the Fire
Place: Seven’s Eleven
Show: Swill
Race 5 – Howard and Sondra Bender Memorial S.
Post Time
2:05 PM
Pace Analysis
Quint’s Brew has ample tactical speed and should control the race from the start or sit just off the lead. Slam Notion also possesses early foot.
Key Contenders
Quint’s Brew (1) is the horse to beat. A graded stakes caliber performer who won the General George earlier this year, he finds a field that he should handle if he runs his B-game. He draws the rail which simplifies the tactics for Mychel Sanchez. Slam Notion (4) has been running well and looks like the main danger.
Secondary Choices
Blue Kingdom (5) and Showstopper Copper (3) are honest runners who can fill out the exotics.
Betting Strategy
Quint’s Brew is a likely single in horizontal wagers. A straight trifecta with him on top of Slam Notion and Blue Kingdom offers value.
Selections
Win: Quint’s Brew
Place: Slam Notion
Show: Blue Kingdom
Race 6 – Carousel S.
Post Time
2:34 PM
Pace Analysis
Sultry Lass and Complexity Jane will likely vie for the front end. The 1 1/8-mile distance will test the stamina of the speed horses.
Key Contenders
Sultry Lass (1) was a high-priced claim by Tom Amoss and makes her first start for the new barn. She has faced tougher company and fits perfectly here. Complexity Jane (4) is a talented filly from the Brittany Russell barn who has shown she loves Laurel Park. She should be right there at the finish.
Secondary Choices
The Sky Is Falling (2) is a consistent mare who rarely runs a bad race. Late Nite Call (3) steps up in class but has momentum.
Betting Strategy
Sultry Lass looks poised to strike for her new connections. Win bet on her and use Complexity Jane in all defensive positions.
Selections
Win: Sultry Lass
Place: Complexity Jane
Show: The Sky Is Falling
Race 7 – Politely S.
Post Time
3:04 PM
Pace Analysis
Miss Harriett is extremely fast and will likely gun for the lead from the rail. Takethemoneyhoney also has speed, ensuring a swift opening quarter.
Key Contenders
Takethemoneyhoney (3) is the morning line favorite for a reason. She has been in excellent form and should get a stalking trip just off Miss Harriett. Miss Harriett (1) is the speed of the speed. If she can shake loose early without too much pressure, she could wire the field.
Secondary Choices
Grayson’s Girl (5) is a closer who would benefit from a pace meltdown. Conquerthosewecan (6) is another Russell trainee who fits on figures.
Betting Strategy
The pace scenario favors Takethemoneyhoney. A win bet on her and an exacta keying her over Miss Harriett and Grayson’s Girl.
Selections
Win: Takethemoneyhoney
Place: Miss Harriett
Show: Grayson’s Girl
Race 8 – Robert T. Manfuso S.
Post Time
3:34 PM
Pace Analysis
Post Time does his best running from off the pace. Barbadian Runner and Not This Boy will likely be forwardly placed, setting the table for the favorite.
Key Contenders
Post Time (4) is the class of the field and arguably the best horse on the circuit. His late kick is devastating, and at 1 1/16 miles, he has plenty of time to wind up. He is the clear standout. Barbadian Runner (2) has been in great form and is the most likely upsetter if the favorite falters.
Secondary Choices
Not This Boy (1) and Teachintherelease (3) are battling for minor awards.
Betting Strategy
Post Time is a single. The race is for second. Play exactas 4 over 1, 2, and 3.
Selections
Win: Post Time
Place: Barbadian Runner
Show: Not This Boy
Race 9
Post Time
4:04 PM
Pace Analysis
In this maiden claiming sprint for 2-year-old fillies, Just a Click and Take Charge Candy show the most early promise on paper.
Key Contenders
Take Charge Candy (2) goes out for Anthony Farrior, a high-percentage trainer with juveniles. She drops into a claimer and should be competitive. Just a Click (1) draws the rail and has shown some speed in mornings.
Secondary Choices
Gripen (9) draws the favorable outside post and adds blinkers or Lasix potentially (check tote). Crab Mentality (8) is an interesting longshot from the Keri Brion barn.
Betting Strategy
Wide open race to end the card. Spread in the Pick 5. Win bet on Take Charge Candy.
Selections
Win: Take Charge Candy
Place: Just a Click
Show: Gripen
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jevian Toledo and Sheldon Russell are battling for supremacy in the jockey standings. Toledo has live mounts in Race 5 (Slam Notion) and Race 7 (Grayson’s Girl). Sheldon Russell rides the big horse Post Time in Race 8 and has a strong chance with Complexity Jane in Race 6. Pay attention to Mychel Sanchez who ships in for key mounts, notably Quint’s Brew in the 5th.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brittany Russell continues to dominate the Maryland circuit. Her entrants today, especially Post Time and Complexity Jane, are must-use horses. Jamie Ness and Anthony Farrior are also sending out live runners in the claiming races. Farrior’s horses often show improved speed off the claim or layoff. Tom Amoss shipping Sultry Lass to Laurel is a significant move that signals intent.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best bet of the day is Post Time in Race 8. He is a standout single for all multi-race wagers.
For value, look to Sultry Lass in Race 6. She may drift up in odds due to the local popularity of the Russell horses, but her back class is superior.
The Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) is anchorable with Post Time, allowing you to spread in the competitive 6th and 7th races.
Value Play: Race 1 – Autumn in Vermont.
Best Bet: Race 8 – Post Time.
