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Welcome to Laurel Park for a sensational Saturday of racing on this Valentine’s Day. We have a robust ten race card lined up, featuring the Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie Stakes and the Grade 3 General George Stakes. The fields are highly competitive, and there are several appealing wagering opportunities to explore throughout the afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
For Laurel, the current temperature is 30°F with mostly sunny conditions and southwest winds at 6 mph. Today’s forecast calls for cloudy conditions, a high of 55°F, a 10% chance of snow, and west winds at 9 mph.
The main dirt track is expected to play fast today. Recent trends at Laurel Park indicate a slight track bias favoring horses with tactical early speed, particularly in the sprint distances. However, the surface generally allows closers a fair chance if the early pace becomes overly contested.
1st Race
Pace Analysis
This six furlong sprint for maiden fillies features several first time starters and lightly raced contenders. A moderate early pace is expected as the field finds its footing and younger horses settle into stride.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Stylish Gem 2 is a strong consensus pick among handicappers today. She traveled very well while close to a fast pace in her last start and looks primed for a breakout performance against this group.
Secondary Choices
As the Bell Toles 3 is a logical secondary option based on the potent jockey and trainer combination. Galibean 1 has the rail advantage and could show enough early foot to factor into the exotics.
Longshots
Snowboarder 6 is dropping in class and might show improved speed against this field, making her a live longshot.
Betting Strategy
Key Stylish Gem in your early horizontal wagers. A straightforward exacta box with the top two choices offers a reliable approach to kick off the card.
Selections
Win: Stylish Gem (2) – 45% confidence Place: As the Bell Toles (3) – 30% confidence Show: Galibean (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Snowboarder (6) – 10% confidence
2nd Race
Pace Analysis
Moving to a route distance of one and one sixteenth miles, the early pace should be dictated by inside speed. Expect a sensible tempo that allows stalkers to remain within striking distance throughout the backstretch.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Ivy Girl 6 stands out as a clear consensus pick due to substantial class relief. Mighty Lindsey 1 is another consensus contender who showed immense resilience to win her last start despite a stumble out of the gate.
Secondary Choices
Miss Fulton Gal 5 rallied well for second last time and will appreciate the stretch out in distance today. Honor Our Country 2 can improve in her second start off the bench.
Longshots
Tacit Value 4 had issues lugging out in her previous race but could threaten at a price if she maintains a straight course.
Betting Strategy
Box the consensus picks in exactas and use them both to confidently advance in the early Pick 5 sequence.
Selections
Win: Ivy Girl (6) – 40% confidence Place: Mighty Lindsey (1) – 35% confidence Show: Miss Fulton Gal (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Tacit Value (4) – 10% confidence
3rd Race
Pace Analysis
This maiden sprint should feature a highly contested pace with several fillies eager to show early speed. The pressure up front might set the table beautifully for a patient stalker.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Juniper’s Jubilee 2 is receiving widespread consensus support as a top play in this spot. Hoof and Boots 8 is also a consensus standout after showing a likable attitude in her last start, and she gets first time Lasix today which could prompt a winning effort.
Secondary Choices
My Girl Back Home 1 has excellent connections and should save ground from the rail post. Maggie’s Moon 4 brings solid morning workouts into this event and cannot be ignored.
Longshots
Have One More 7 could offer value to the bottom of the trifecta if the front runners tire late in the stretch.
Betting Strategy
Lean heavily on Hoof and Boots and Juniper’s Jubilee for your multi race sequences.
Selections
Win: Juniper’s Jubilee (2) – 40% confidence Place: Hoof and Boots (8) – 30% confidence Show: My Girl Back Home (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Have One More (7) – 10% confidence
4th Race
Pace Analysis
A five and a half furlong dash requires extreme quickness straight from the gate. Expect a blistering early pace that will severely test the stamina of the front runners turning for home.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Kuaga 1 and Yes Picnic 2 are heavily backed consensus picks after their thrilling head to head duel last time out. Rerun Table 7 is another consensus selection expected to be prominent early.
Secondary Choices
Barbados Bulldog 6 was visually impressive when winning last out despite a wide trip and is an incredibly dangerous secondary option. No Mo Muffins 8 has top tier connections and fits well here.
Longshots
Tipmanee 4 is a deeper play who could close late for a minor share if the leaders collapse.
Betting Strategy
An exacta box involving Kuaga and Yes Picnic is the safest route, while Barbados Bulldog offers excellent win value if her odds drift.
Selections
Win: Kuaga (1) – 35% confidence Place: Yes Picnic (2) – 30% confidence Show: Barbados Bulldog (6) – 20% confidence Alternative: Rerun Table (7) – 15% confidence
5th Race
Pace Analysis
In this one mile claiming event, the large field size will undoubtedly create traffic issues. The pace should be honest, favoring horses capable of rating mid pack and finding clear sailing late.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Sailor’s Return 1 is a strong consensus pick whose last race can be upgraded significantly after a poor break cost him his early position. Mistical Curlin 8 is another consensus favorite dropping to a comfortable level today.
Secondary Choices
Quincannon 12 was badly boxed in when making his move last out and stretches back out in distance today, making him a major threat. Catatumbo 10 is a consistent performer at this level.
Longshots
What Does It Take 2 might slip under the radar but possesses enough tactical speed to stay involved at a price.
Betting Strategy
Sailor’s Return is a strong win candidate. Use Quincannon underneath in all vertical wagers to boost payouts.
Selections
Win: Sailor’s Return (1) – 35% confidence Place: Mistical Curlin (8) – 25% confidence Show: Quincannon (12) – 20% confidence Alternative: Catatumbo (10) – 20% confidence
6th Race
Pace Analysis
The Nellie Morse Stakes features a balanced field. The early fractions should be moderate, allowing the classier mares to position themselves optimally for a stretch drive.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Sultry Lass 1 is a massive consensus pick facing easier competition today and drawing perfectly. Complexity Jane 7 is another consensus choice representing a very powerful stable.
Secondary Choices
Doctor Abbie 2 has high percentage connections and rarely runs a poor race. Late Nite Call 5 has the tactical speed to stay close to the pace and pounce.
Longshots
The Sky Is Falling 4 has significant back class and could awaken at a generous price.
Betting Strategy
Sultry Lass is a reliable single in most multi race sequences. Play her on top of Complexity Jane and Doctor Abbie in exactas.
Selections
Win: Sultry Lass (1) – 45% confidence Place: Complexity Jane (7) – 30% confidence Show: Doctor Abbie (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: The Sky Is Falling (4) – 10% confidence
7th Race
Pace Analysis
The Post Time Stakes over one and one eighth miles will be a grinding test of stamina. A slow pace is expected, which should highly favor horses with proven route experience and patience.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Call Me Fast 5 is the premier consensus pick in this spot for a high percentage barn. Cadet Corps 4 is a veteran with a sharp tactical edge who is highly regarded by consensus handicappers.
Secondary Choices
Jokestar 1 ships in with class lines that suggest he firmly belongs in this company. Otter Mischief 2 is steadily improving and merits immense respect.
Longshots
Warp Nine 6 will need to rebound from a poor effort but has the raw talent to surprise on his best day.
Betting Strategy
Call Me Fast looks dominant on paper. Use him as a rolling double key into the late stakes races.
Selections
Win: Call Me Fast (5) – 40% confidence Place: Cadet Corps (4) – 30% confidence Show: Jokestar (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Surfside Moon (3) – 10% confidence
8th Race
Pace Analysis
The Barbara Fritchie Stakes promises fireworks early. Several fillies have brilliant early foot, which could easily result in a fast pace that sets up perfectly for a deep closer.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Dry Powder 1 and Bolt Enoree 5 are the primary consensus picks based on their extensive graded stakes history and sharp recent morning works.
Secondary Choices
Hold Your Breath 2 has excellent tactical speed and could inherit the lead if the pace completely collapses. On Command 8 has a favorable outside draw to stay out of trouble.
Longshots
Backstretch Rose 3 could pick up the pieces and hit the board at a massive price if a severe speed duel materializes.
Betting Strategy
Box the top three choices in a trifecta and look to actively beat the heavy favorite if the odds drop too low.
Selections
Win: Dry Powder (1) – 35% confidence Place: Bolt Enoree (5) – 30% confidence Show: Hold Your Breath (2) – 20% confidence Alternative: Passage East (7) – 15% confidence
9th Race
Pace Analysis
The General George Stakes is completely loaded with talent. The pace should be swift and contested, heavily favoring horses that can sit just off the flank of the leaders.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Slam Notion 7 is the ultimate consensus pick, arriving on a phenomenal four race win streak and boasting a perfect record at this seven furlong distance. Quint’s Brew 4 is another major consensus threat after dominating this exact race last year.
Secondary Choices
Blue Kingdom 1 brings solid overall form and fits well structurally. Petingas Twin 2 could rally late for a minor award.
Longshots
Point Dume 5 is stepping up in class but has the raw speed to be highly dangerous.
Betting Strategy
Slam Notion is arguably the most reliable win bet on the entire card. Key him confidently in your Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets.
Selections
Win: Slam Notion (7) – 45% confidence Place: Quint’s Brew (4) – 35% confidence Show: Blue Kingdom (1) – 10% confidence Alternative: Petingas Twin (2) – 10% confidence
10th Race
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a highly competitive maiden claiming event. The pace scenario is murky, but it will likely be moderate given the lack of confirmed, aggressive front runners.
Key Contenders and Consensus Picks
Run Tzu 9 and Twelve Nelson 6 are drawing the most consensus attention in this wide open finale. Both have shown enough late interest in previous starts to suggest a breakthrough is near.
Secondary Choices
Divine Future 1 takes a much needed drop in class and gets the rail draw. Souper Vinnie 2 could show significant improvement in his second start of the current form cycle.
Longshots
Bold Mirage 5 is a deeper alternative who might offer tremendous value to those spreading wide.
Betting Strategy
Spread deep in the late Pick 5, but definitely use Run Tzu and Twelve Nelson as your primary anchors to close out the day.
Selections
Win: Run Tzu (9) – 30% confidence Place: Twelve Nelson (6) – 25% confidence Show: Divine Future (1) – 25% confidence Alternative: Souper Vinnie (2) – 20% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jevian Toledo and Sheldon Russell have phenomenal books of mounts today and are the clear riders to watch. Toledo excels at saving ground and finding late gaps, making his mounts incredibly dangerous in route races. Sheldon Russell tends to perfectly time his rides in stakes company and is consistently an excellent bet in the feature races.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brittany Russell and Jamie Ness both have incredibly strong entries across the entire card. The Russell barn has been firing on all cylinders in stakes races, making Complexity Jane and Sultry Lass formidable. Jamie Ness continues to thoroughly dominate the claiming ranks, and his runners should never be ignored when dropping in class.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The late Pick 5 provides the most value on this card. Anchoring your tickets with Slam Notion in the General George Stakes will allow you to spread deeper in the wide open tenth race. Sailor’s Return in the fifth race is an exceptional value play considering his troubled trip last time out. Finally, a daily double linking Sultry Lass and Call Me Fast offers a strong mid card investment strategy with excellent win probability.
