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Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio presents an eight-race card on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, with a first post time of 12:15 PM Eastern. The card is composed of a solid mix of claiming, maiden special weight, maiden claiming, and allowance races on the dirt. Purses range from $12,100 in the fourth race up to $31,800 for the maiden special weight third race and $25,900 for the allowance finale.
The scratch watch carries several notable entries. In Race 3, Chardu (PP1) has been scratched by the veterinarian. Race 4 loses Princess Opal (PP5) to a veterinarian scratch and Tovia (PP1) to a stewards scratch. Race 5 sees Jenny’s Beignet (PP10) scratched by both the veterinarian and stewards, while Mexitexafornia (PP3) is scratched by the stewards. Race 8 loses Illini (PP1) to a stewards scratch. These scratches meaningfully thin several fields and shift the competitive dynamics in multiple races.
The overall quality of the card is consistent with typical Mahoning Valley winter racing. The claiming ranks dominate the first five races, while the third race’s maiden special weight for Ohio-bred fillies and mares offers some developmental intrigue. The allowance finale in Race 8 is the strongest race on the card with an 11-horse field (reduced to 10 after the Illini scratch) and should produce competitive wagering opportunities.
Weather and Track Conditions
The National Weather Service climate report for Youngstown on February 24 showed a maximum temperature of 30 degrees Fahrenheit and a minimum of 13 degrees, with light snow of 0.1 inches and a snow depth of 2 inches on the ground. For February 25, AccuWeather projects a high of 42 degrees and a low of 32 degrees, while Weather Shogun forecasts a daytime high near 46 degrees with a 68% precipitation probability and winds of 21 mph.
The transition from below-freezing overnight temperatures to above-freezing daytime highs is critical for track conditions. The track surface is expected to carry significant moisture content. The current track condition has been reported as muddy. Mahoning Valley’s sand-based dirt surface provides superior drainage compared to clay-based surfaces and typically handles winter moisture well, but the freeze-thaw cycle and precipitation probability suggest the strip will play deep and tiring throughout the afternoon.
Horses with proven off-track ability and stamina should have a marked advantage today. Front-runners who lack the ability to sustain early speed through deep footing will be vulnerable to closers who can sustain a strong late kick. The wind at 21 mph out of the west may further tax horses that have to work on the front end.
Track Bias and Post Position Tendencies
Mahoning Valley generally plays as a speed-favoring dirt course, especially at standard sprint distances such as six furlongs. Horses on or near the lead entering the turn hold a measurable advantage in many races. However, on days when the track is rated muddy or sloppy rather than fast, the speed bias is somewhat neutralized. Deep, tiring footing tends to bring closers more into play, as early speed horses burn more energy maintaining their position.
In sprints, inside to middle posts tend to be slightly preferred, allowing runners to save ground into the lone turn while keeping tactical options open. Wide-drawn speed can win but often must expend extra energy to clear, which can be costly if pace pressure develops. For the one-mile route races (Races 2, 4, and 7), the two-turn configuration at Mahoning Valley makes inside posts even more valuable, as horses breaking from outside gates must navigate two turns while losing ground.
Given today’s expected muddy conditions, look for horses that can settle just off the pace from inside-to-middle post positions. The combination of the wet track and wind should compress the speed bias and create more opportunities for stalking types.
Race 1 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $12,800
Post Time: 12:15 PM ET
This is a $5,000 claiming sprint for three-year-olds and upward that have not won a race since August 25. A small six-horse field of older claimers who have been on the sidelines. All runners carry 126 pounds.
Pace Analysis
Commander Joe (PP1) and Jedi’s Way (PP3) figure to establish early position from their inside draws. More Love (PP4) from the Ricardo Bailey barn could also press early. Land Mark Deal (PP5) and Versatile (PP6) are not known as confirmed front-runners and should sit a few lengths off the lead. The pace is projected to be moderate to honest, with two or three horses contesting the early fractions. On the muddy strip, the early speed types may tire late, creating an opening for a horse with some tactical flexibility.
Key Contenders
More Love (PP4) is listed at 8-5 on the morning line and was the top selection from multiple handicapping outlets. The six-year-old horse is trained by Ricardo Bailey and ridden by T. D. Houghton. At the short price, he figures to be the controlling speed or just off the pace from the favorable four-post. Bailey has been competitive throughout the meet and knows how to place claimers effectively. The layoff since August is a mild concern, but at this level, class and connections matter most.
Commander Joe (PP1) is listed at 2-1 and has the rail draw, which is advantageous at six furlongs. Trained by Nick Guy Mileni Jr. and ridden by Helen Marie Vanek, this eight-year-old horse has recent form and the equipment (Lasix) to be competitive. Drawing the rail gives him the opportunity to save ground through the turn without using excess energy.
Jedi’s Way (PP3) is 5-2 on the morning line, trained by Jay Bernardini with Luis Tapara riding. Bernardini carries a career strike rate of approximately 23% at Mahoning Valley and consistently has his horses ready to run. The Bernardini factor alone makes Jedi’s Way a legitimate contender. The three-post is ideal for a ground-saving trip.
Secondary Choices
Letmeknowbeforeugo (PP2) at 8-1 is trained by Eric Reed with Charle Oliveros aboard. Reed is a respected conditioner whose presence in any race demands attention. If the early pace collapses, this one could benefit from a stalking trip.
Versatile (PP6) at 10-1 is trained by Shane Spiess with Yuri Yaranga riding. Drawing outside in a six-horse field is not a death sentence, but this one would need a pace meltdown to have a serious shot.
Longshots
Land Mark Deal (PP5) at 20-1 is trained by Rodney Faulkner with Angel Diaz riding. At this price, inclusion in deep exotics only is warranted.
Betting Strategy
More Love (PP4) is the logical top choice and a reasonable win bet at a short price. For exactas, key More Love over Commander Joe and Jedi’s Way. A trifecta box of 4-1-3 keeps the cost manageable. If seeking value, using Letmeknowbeforeugo underneath in the trifecta creates a potential overlay.
Selections
Win: 4 More Love
Place: 1 Commander Joe
Show: 3 Jedi’s Way
Race 2 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $15,400
Post Time: 12:43 PM ET
This is a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares three and up going one mile. Non-winners since January 25 get a two-pound allowance. A six-horse field with some live contenders.
Pace Analysis
Political Spin (PP1) and Wicca Wisdom (PP2) both hold inside draws and could look to establish early position on the two-turn mile course. A New Peace (PP5) has the running style to press early. The pace should be moderate, which benefits tactical types that can sit a ground-saving trip and kick in the stretch. On a muddy surface at one mile, stamina becomes a premium factor.
Key Contenders
Bootsy’s Merlot (PP6) at 4-1 was selected as a Brisnet Spot Play and received support from multiple handicapping sources as the top selection. The five-year-old mare is trained by Jay Bernardini and ridden by Erik Barbaran. Bernardini’s strike rate at Mahoning Valley is elite, and Barbaran is one of the more aggressive and productive riders at the current meet. The six-post on a mile race means she will need to overcome some early positioning, but Barbaran’s aggressive riding style should help her secure a stalking trip by the first turn. The Bernardini barn has consistently performed well with claimers throughout this winter meet.
Wicca Wisdom (PP2) at 5-2 on the morning line is trained by Johanna Urieta with Deshawn Parker riding. The two-post is an ideal starting position for the mile distance, allowing her to save ground through both turns. Parker is a veteran rider who knows Mahoning Valley well. She should be forwardly placed from the break and is the horse to beat on paper.
Secondary Choices
A New Peace (PP5) at 7-2 is trained by Larry Smith with Angel Diaz aboard. The 10-year-old mare has the experience to handle any conditions and the tactical speed to be in contention. Her age is a mild negative, but she has proven she can still compete at this level.
Maliced (PP4) at 4-1 is trained by Johanna Urieta and ridden by David Haldar. This gives the Urieta barn a strong two-horse presence in this race. The nine-year-old mare draws a favorable mid-field post.
Longshots
Beaches and Pearls (PP3) at 8-1 is a four-year-old filly trained by Kent Knudsen with Luis Alberto Batista aboard. Youth could be an advantage here, and Batista is one of the leading riders at the meet.
Political Spin (PP1) at 10-1 is trained by Juan Carlos Gotera with Kevin Gonzalez riding. The rail is valuable at one mile, and at double-digit odds, she has value if she can establish an uncontested lead.
Betting Strategy
Bootsy’s Merlot (PP6) at 4-1 offers fair value given the strong trainer-jockey combination. Key Bootsy’s Merlot and Wicca Wisdom in exactas both ways. A trifecta key of 6 and 2 over 5, 4, 3 provides solid coverage. This is also the start of a potential daily double connection.
Selections
Win: 6 Bootsy’s Merlot
Place: 2 Wicca Wisdom
Show: 5 A New Peace
Race 3 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $31,800
Post Time: 1:11 PM ET
This is a maiden special weight restricted to accredited Ohio-bred fillies and mares ages three through six. A seven-horse field is entered, but with Chardu (PP1) scratched by the veterinarian, only six will go. This is the highest-purse race on the card and offers developmental value for Ohio-bred connections.
Pace Analysis
With Chardu scratched, the remaining field lacks a dominant early speed type. Playkoz (PP5) as a three-year-old may show some early speed. Pirinola (PP7) and Moon Dreams (PP3) could also be involved early. The pace projects to be slow to moderate, which generally benefits horses with tactical speed on a muddy surface. Stalkers and pressers should have the edge.
Key Contenders
Moon Dreams (PP3) is the 2-1 morning line favorite, trained by Johanna Urieta with Jairo Hernandez riding. As a four-year-old filly, she offers some class potential in a maiden special weight field. The three-post is ideal for the six-furlong distance, giving her a clean trip into the turn. Urieta has multiple entries today and seems to have her stable in good form.
Shestheperfectsong (PP2) at 6-1 was the top selection from one major handicapping source. This five-year-old mare is trained by Danny Bird with Bailey Weatherly aboard. The inside two-post is advantageous on a muddy track, and Bird stables two runners in this race (also training the scratched Chardu). The price offers some value relative to the favorite.
Secondary Choices
Pirinola (PP7) at 4-1 is trained by Sergio Donjuan with Luis Alberto Batista riding. Batista is among the leading riders at the meet, and his presence in the irons elevates Pirinola’s chances. The seven-post is the widest in the remaining field and poses a positioning challenge at six furlongs.
Twotwentyfivesouth (PP4) at 8-1 is trained by Lori Loudin-Smith with Chelsey Keiser riding. This four-year-old filly has the mid-field draw and could benefit if the favorites falter.
Longshots
Playkoz (PP5) at a morning line price yet to be confirmed is a three-year-old first-time starter trained by Larry Smith with Luis Raul Rivera aboard. She carries the weight advantage at 118 pounds versus 126 for the older horses. First-time starters in maiden special weight races at Mahoning Valley are always worth monitoring, though the muddy conditions are a tough test for a debut.
Raven’s Honor (PP6) at 15-1 is trained by Jose Lopez with Brandon Tapara riding. A deep longshot with minimal credentials at this point.
Betting Strategy
Moon Dreams (PP3) is the deserving favorite but may be overbet at 2-1. Shestheperfectsong (PP2) at 6-1 offers better value. Consider keying Shestheperfectsong and Moon Dreams in exactas both ways, with Pirinola as a third horse for the trifecta. Maiden special weight races restricted to state-breds can produce surprises, so spreading in exotics is wise.
Selections
Win: 3 Moon Dreams
Place: 2 Shestheperfectsong
Show: 7 Pirinola
Race 4 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $12,100
Post Time: 1:39 PM ET
This is a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares three and up that have never won two races, going one mile. With Princess Opal (PP5) and Tovia (PP1) both scratched, the field is reduced to five runners. Non-winners since January 25 get a two-pound weight break.
Pace Analysis
With two scratches and only five remaining runners, the pace scenario simplifies considerably. Neblina (PP4) has the tactical versatility to be placed anywhere. Take Charge Candy (PP7) as a three-year-old could show some early speed. The pace should be slow to moderate in a small field, which tends to favor horses with quality and class over pure speed.
Key Contenders
Neblina (PP4) is the dominant horse on paper, listed as the even-money favorite by Irish Racing and the 1-1 top pick from handicappers. The four-year-old filly is trained by Nestor Rivera with Alexander Chavez riding. She steps down in class for this spot, which is a powerful angle. The mid-field post draw is ideal for the mile distance, and at this level, she should have a significant class edge over the remaining field.
Take Charge Candy (PP7) at 2-1 on the morning line is a three-year-old filly trained by Anthony Farrior with Erik Barbaran aboard. She won impressively in her last start and gets the benefit of the 118-pound weight allowance (reduced to 116 on the card) as a three-year-old. Barbaran’s aggressive riding style could put this filly into a strong position early. The Farrior barn has been competitive at the current meet.
Secondary Choices
Holy Kingdom (PP6) at 6-1 is trained by Marcus Kocijan with Kevin Gonzalez riding. This five-year-old mare drops in grade and could show improvement in a reduced field.
Sip’n’ Speed (PP2) at 8-1 is trained by Jose Bracho Jr. with Luis Alberto Batista aboard. The two-post is favorable at one mile, and Batista is a reliable rider. At the price, this filly merits inclusion in exotics.
Longshots
Bulls N Berry (PP3) at 20-1 is an eight-year-old mare trained by Lori Loudin-Smith with Chelsey Keiser riding. Hard to recommend in a five-horse field at this price, but as a live body in a thin field, she could grab a minor share.
Betting Strategy
Neblina (PP4) is the overwhelming choice but at even money offers no wagering value on a win bet. The play here is to use Neblina as a key horse in the exacta on top of Take Charge Candy and Holy Kingdom. A trifecta key of 4 over 7, 6, 2 with all provides coverage without excessive cost. This race is best used as a single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: 4 Neblina
Place: 7 Take Charge Candy
Show: 6 Holy Kingdom
Race 5 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $14,900
Post Time: 2:07 PM ET
This is a $7,500 claimer for three-year-olds and upward that have never won four races, going six furlongs. A 10-horse field is entered, but with Jenny’s Beignet (PP10) and Mexitexafornia (PP3) both scratched, eight runners will face the starter. Non-winners since January 25 get a two-pound allowance.
Pace Analysis
The pace should be honest with Bohemian Style (PP1) and possibly Corman (PP9) establishing early position from opposite ends of the gate. Harbour Bridge (PP5) and Grand Bey (PP4) could also press forward. With multiple speed types in the mix, the early fractions could be contested, setting up for a closer on the muddy track. This is the type of race where pace analysis matters most.
Key Contenders
Bohemian Style (PP1) at 5-2 was the top selection from one major handicapping source. The four-year-old gelding is trained by Nestor Rivera with Alexander Chavez riding. Rivera also trains Neblina in Race 4, and the barn appears to be in strong current form. The rail draw is ideal for six furlongs on this track, and at a fair morning line price, this is a horse that should be on top in the early stages.
Harbour Bridge (PP5) at 7-2 was the Brisnet Spot Play in this race and the top choice from the e-ponies analysis. The six-year-old gelding is trained by Jay Bernardini with Luis Alberto Batista aboard. The Bernardini-Batista combination is one of the most productive at the meet, and Harbour Bridge has the class to handle this condition. The five-post is manageable in an eight-horse field.
Corman (PP9) at 9-2 is trained by Timothy Hamm with Rocco Bowen riding. Bowen is an experienced rider who can find the right trip from any post position. The nine-post (effectively the outside in the reduced field) is a concern at six furlongs, but Bowen’s tactical ability can mitigate that disadvantage.
Secondary Choices
Cacique Abarrio (PP6) at 8-1 is trained by Jeffrey Skerrett with Jefferson Skerrett riding. The father-son Skerrett connection is worth monitoring as they typically have their horses fit and ready. At 8-1, this one offers some value if the favorites falter.
Cupix (PP2) at 10-1 is trained by Eric Reed with Bailey Weatherly aboard. Reed’s involvement demands respect, and the inside two-post is favorable. At the price, Cupix is a legitimate exotic player.
Longshots
Grand Bey (PP4) at 12-1 is trained by Joseph Poole with Jose Bracho riding. Finistere (PP7) at 20-1 and Succession Gold (PP8) at 20-1 are deep longshots that face a tough task against the top three.
Betting Strategy
This is a competitive race with legitimate contenders at good prices. Bohemian Style (PP1) and Harbour Bridge (PP5) are the co-top picks. Key both on top in exactas over each other and over Corman, Cacique Abarrio, and Cupix. A trifecta key of 1 and 5 over 9, 6, 2 with all provides excellent coverage. This race also marks the start of the Pick 4 sequence (Races 5-8), so spreading here is important.
Selections
Win: 1 Bohemian Style
Place: 5 Harbour Bridge
Show: 9 Corman
Race 6 — Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $13,800
Post Time: 2:35 PM ET
This is a $10,000 maiden claimer for three through six-year-olds going six furlongs. An eight-horse field goes to the gate with a mix of experienced maidens and lightly-raced types.
Pace Analysis
Fast Talkin Man (PP5) has shown early speed in his recent efforts and should be involved early. Trouble Or Nothin (PP1) with the rail draw could also break sharp. Daredevil Doug (PP3) and Wampanoag Chief (PP2) have the inside-to-middle draws to establish position. The pace should be moderate to honest, and on the muddy track, the winner likely comes from a horse that can sit just off the leaders and make a move in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Daredevil Doug (PP3) at 2-1 was the top pick from one major handicapping source and receives the strongest form analysis from race card experts. The four-year-old gelding is trained by Aaron West with Jose Bracho riding. He has shown promise with two runner-up finishes and looks well placed to break through in this spot. The three-post is ideal for a ground-saving trip, and West has been a competitive conditioner throughout the meet.
Fast Talkin Man (PP5) at 3-1 is trained by Justine Eder with Angel Diaz aboard. He comes off a close second-place finish and warrants respect. Diaz is a capable rider who can rate a horse off the pace if necessary. The five-post is slightly wide but manageable in an eight-horse field.
Secondary Choices
Pivot To The Power (PP8) at 7-2 is a six-year-old mare from Great Britain trained by Eric Reed with Charle Oliveros riding. She drops in class for this spot, which is a positive indicator. Reed’s involvement always demands attention, and Oliveros is a solid rider. The eight-post is the widest draw in the field and a significant tactical disadvantage at six furlongs.
Kei (PP6) at 6-1 is trained by Jeffrey Skerrett with Jefferson Skerrett riding. The Skerrett father-son team is a consistent producer at the meet. At 6-1, Kei offers value if the top three falter.
Longshots
Wampanoag Chief (PP2) at 8-1 has the favorable inside draw and is trained by Juan Carlos Gotera with Deshawn Parker aboard. Runningonhighlevel (PP4) at 10-1 is a three-year-old trained by Rodney Faulkner with Kirsten Swan riding — the weight allowance at 118 pounds is notable. Willa’s Bugaroo (PP7) at 15-1 benefits from the Bernardini barn but draws wide.
Betting Strategy
Daredevil Doug (PP3) is the class of the field and a strong win candidate at a fair price. Key Daredevil Doug on top of Fast Talkin Man and Pivot To The Power in exactas. For the trifecta, include Kei and Wampanoag Chief underneath. Maiden claiming races can produce upsets, so modest win bets with heavier exotic play is the recommended approach.
Selections
Win: 3 Daredevil Doug
Place: 5 Fast Talkin Man
Show: 8 Pivot To The Power
Race 7 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $15,400
Post Time: 3:03 PM ET
This is a $5,000 claimer for three-year-olds and upward going one mile. Non-winners since January 25 get a two-pound allowance. Eight runners are entered with some interesting form angles.
Pace Analysis
Cool Couple (PP1) and Toast to Coast (PP2) both hold inside draws and could contest early position on the two-turn mile. Master of the Nite (PP5) has the running style to press forward. Only Get’n Better (PP6) could also be involved early from the mid-field draw. The pace should be moderate, and the rail-to-middle draw horses have a tactical advantage at this distance. On a muddy track, stamina is again at a premium.
Key Contenders
Toast to Coast (PP2) at 5-2 is the e-ponies top selection and the morning line favorite. The six-year-old gelding is trained by Jay Bernardini with Luis Tapara riding. Bernardini’s strength at Mahoning Valley is well documented, and the two-post provides an ideal starting position for the mile distance. Toast to Coast should be forwardly placed and has the class to handle this field.
Master of the Nite (PP5) at 5-1 was the top selection from one major handicapping source. The five-year-old gelding is trained by Jeffrey Radosevich with Luis Raul Rivera aboard. Radosevich has been a competitive trainer at the Mahoning Valley meet, and Rivera is a reliable rider. At 5-1, the value is appealing if Toast to Coast is overbet.
Cool Couple (PP1) at 3-1 is trained by Jason DaCosta with Luis Alberto Batista riding. DaCosta is a respected conditioner, and Batista’s presence in the irons is always a positive. The rail draw gives Cool Couple an excellent trip setup for the mile distance.
Secondary Choices
Royal Dragoon (PP3) at 12-1 is trained by Johanna Urieta with David Haldar riding. The eight-year-old gelding draws a favorable inside post and at the price offers some value in exotics.
Only Get’n Better (PP6) at a morning line price not confirmed is trained by Julie Pappada with Rocco Bowen riding. Bowen’s tactical ability from the six-post makes this one worth including in trifecta play.
Longshots
Firewater Jake (PP8) at 15-1, Digital Footprint (PP4) at 20-1, and Zaddy (PP7) at 20-1 are deep prices that face a tough task against the top three.
Betting Strategy
Toast to Coast (PP2) and Cool Couple (PP1) with their inside draws are the primary contenders at the mile distance on a muddy track. Key both on top in exactas, with Master of the Nite as the third horse for trifectas. A trifecta key of 2 and 1 over 5, 3 with all provides solid coverage. Master of the Nite at 5-1 is the value play in this race.
Selections
Win: 2 Toast to Coast
Place: 1 Cool Couple
Show: 5 Master of the Nite
Race 8 — Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,900
Post Time: 3:31 PM ET
This is the feature race of the day, an allowance for three-year-olds and upward going 5 1/2 furlongs. The conditions specify horses that have never won other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio-bred races, or have never won two races. Ohio registered foals are preferred. With Illini (PP1) scratched by the stewards, the field is reduced to 10 runners. Non-winners since January 25 get a two-pound allowance.
Pace Analysis
With 10 horses remaining, this should produce an honest pace. Sneaky Sneaky (PP5), Prince of Pennies (PP6), and Erlan (PP3) could all be involved early. El Rosillo (PP9) and Brewing (PP7) also have early speed profiles. At 5 1/2 furlongs, the break and first turn positioning are critical. The muddy surface should take the edge off pure speed types and create opportunities for tactical runners. Expect contested early fractions with the winner likely coming from a horse that can sit just off a hot pace and close strongly.
Key Contenders
Zippin Gigi (PP8) at 9-2 was the top selection from one major handicapping source and received strong support from the e-ponies analysis. The seven-year-old gelding is trained by Rey Juarez-Mendoza with Luis Alberto Batista aboard. Batista is one of the leading riders at the meet and his presence provides a significant advantage. With Illini scratched, Zippin Gigi’s chances improve further. The eight-post is wide but manageable in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint where the run to the turn is relatively long.
Erlan (PP3) at 6-1 is trained by Shane Meyers with Jose Bracho riding. The three-post is ideal for the 5 1/2-furlong trip, and Bracho is among the top riders at Mahoning Valley. This horse has the tactical speed to be positioned well early and the class to compete at the allowance level.
Pallino (PP4) at a morning line to be determined is trained by Jay Bernardini with Erik Barbaran aboard. The Bernardini-Barbaran connection has been one of the most productive at the meet. The four-post is an excellent draw, and Bernardini consistently has his allowance runners ready to fire. This could be the most dangerous horse in the field.
Secondary Choices
Prince of Pennies (PP6) at 8-1 is trained by Michelle Elliott with Fernando Salazar Becerra riding. Elliott trains two in this race (also El Rosillo at PP9), suggesting the barn is in strong form. At the price, Prince of Pennies offers value.
Improbable First (PP11) at 10-1 is a four-year-old colt trained by Penny Rone with Luis Raul Rivera riding. As a colt in a gelding-heavy field, he may have a slight physical advantage. The wide 11-post is a significant negative, however.
El Rosillo (PP9) at 10-1 is trained by Michelle Elliott with Chelsey Keiser aboard. The seven-year-old gelding carries top weight at 126 pounds, which is a negative in a competitive allowance field.
Longshots
Dream On Baby (PP10) at 12-1, Color Bearer (PP2) at 15-1 from the Skerrett barn, Sneaky Sneaky (PP5) at 15-1, and Brewing (PP7) at 15-1 all have modest credentials at this level. Color Bearer benefits from the inside draw and the Skerrett connection with a reduced weight of 119 pounds.
Betting Strategy
The allowance finale is the best race on the card for exotic wagering. With 10 runners and multiple viable contenders, the payoffs could be substantial. Use Zippin Gigi, Pallino, and Erlan as primary keys in exactas and trifectas. A trifecta key of 8, 4, and 3 over each other with 6, 11, 9 provides broad coverage. For the superfecta, include Color Bearer and Prince of Pennies in the third and fourth slots. This race is also the final leg of the Pick 4, so spread accordingly.
Selections
Win: 4 Pallino
Place: 8 Zippin Gigi
Show: 3 Erlan
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis Alberto Batista has five mounts on the card (Race 2 on Beaches and Pearls, Race 4 on Sip’n’ Speed, Race 5 on Harbour Bridge, Race 7 on Cool Couple, Race 8 on Zippin Gigi). Batista has historically been among the leading riders at Mahoning Valley and carries a strong winning percentage at the current meet. His mounts include two morning line favorites or near-favorites, making him the most consequential jockey on the card. His best mount of the day may be Harbour Bridge in Race 5.
Erik Barbaran rides four times today (Race 2 on Bootsy’s Merlot, Race 4 on Take Charge Candy, Race 6 on Willa’s Bugaroo, Race 8 on Pallino). Barbaran is one of the more aggressive riders at the meet and his mounts today include some strong trainer connections with Bernardini and Farrior. His strongest mount is Pallino in the allowance finale.
Angel Diaz has three mounts (Race 1 on Land Mark Deal, Race 5 on Bohemian Style — note: per the card — and Race 6 on Fast Talkin Man). Diaz’s best opportunity comes aboard Fast Talkin Man in Race 6.
Jose A. Bracho rides in Race 5 on Grand Bey and Race 8 on Erlan. Bracho has been competitive at the Mahoning Valley meet. His strongest mount is Erlan in the allowance finale.
Deshawn Parker has mounts in Race 2 (Wicca Wisdom) and Race 8 (on Illini, now scratched). Parker’s experience at Mahoning Valley makes Wicca Wisdom a strong contender in Race 2.
Jefferson Skerrett rides three times for his father Jeffrey Skerrett’s barn — Race 5 on Cacique Abarrio, Race 6 on Kei, and Race 8 on Color Bearer. The father-son duo consistently places their horses to win and their entries deserve respect, particularly at elevated odds.
Rocco Bowen rides Race 5 on Corman and Race 7 on Only Get’n Better. Bowen is a veteran rider with strong tactical awareness and is especially valuable when drawn wide, as he can navigate traffic effectively.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jay Bernardini is the dominant trainer at Mahoning Valley with a career strike rate of approximately 23% from over 4,400 starts. He has six entries on today’s card: Jedi’s Way (R1), Bootsy’s Merlot (R2), Harbour Bridge (R5), Willa’s Bugaroo (R6), Toast to Coast (R7), and Pallino (R8). His horses with Batista and Barbaran aboard are particularly dangerous. Bootsy’s Merlot in Race 2 and Toast to Coast in Race 7 are standout runners from this barn. Any Bernardini entry at a price above 3-1 should be given serious consideration.
Eric Reed trains three runners today: Letmeknowbeforeugo (R1), Cupix (R5), and Pivot To The Power (R6). Reed is a nationally recognized conditioner whose presence in any race demands attention. His most intriguing runner today is Pivot To The Power in Race 6, who drops in class from a higher level.
Nestor Rivera has two entries: Bohemian Style (R5) and Neblina (R4). The Rivera barn appears to be in excellent current form, with Neblina expected to dominate Race 4 and Bohemian Style among the top contenders in Race 5.
Jeffrey Skerrett trains three runners with son Jefferson riding all of them: Cacique Abarrio (R5), Kei (R6), and Color Bearer (R8). The Skerrett barn consistently produces competitive runners at Mahoning Valley, often at generous odds.
Johanna Urieta has entries in Race 2 (Wicca Wisdom), Race 2 (Maliced), Race 3 (Moon Dreams), and Race 7 (Royal Dragoon). The barn is active across the card, with Moon Dreams in Race 3 being the most likely winner.
Anthony Farrior trains Take Charge Candy in Race 4, who comes off an impressive last-out victory. The Farrior barn has been competitive throughout the winter meet.
Michelle Elliott trains two in the Race 8 allowance finale — Prince of Pennies (PP6) and El Rosillo (PP9). Double entries from any barn in the best race of the day signals confidence and both should be included in exotics.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best value play on the card is Pallino (PP4) in Race 8. Trained by Bernardini and ridden by Barbaran, this horse benefits from the Illini scratch and draws a favorable post. At a projected morning line of 4-1 or higher, the Bernardini-Barbaran combination in the highest-purse race of the day represents significant overlay potential.
Master of the Nite (PP5) in Race 7 at 5-1 is another value play. The Radosevich-Rivera combination is solid, and the price could drift higher if the public pounds Toast to Coast.
Shestheperfectsong (PP2) in Race 3 at 6-1 offers value against the prohibitive favorite Moon Dreams. In maiden special weight races restricted to state-breds, upsets occur more frequently than in open company.
Bootsy’s Merlot (PP6) in Race 2 at 4-1 has the best trainer connection on the card (Bernardini) and the Brisnet Spot Play endorsement. At 4-1, this mare offers a fair return for a horse with a strong chance.
For multi-race wagering, the Pick 4 from Races 5 through 8 offers the best opportunity on this card. A suggested ticket structure:
Race 5 (Leg 1): 1 Bohemian Style, 5 Harbour Bridge, 9 Corman
Race 6 (Leg 2): 3 Daredevil Doug, 5 Fast Talkin Man
Race 7 (Leg 3): 2 Toast to Coast, 1 Cool Couple
Race 8 (Leg 4): 4 Pallino, 8 Zippin Gigi, 3 Erlan
This ticket uses three horses in the first and last legs and two in the middle legs, creating a 36-combination ticket at $1 base cost ($36 total). To reduce cost, single Toast to Coast in Race 7 for a 18-combination ticket ($18 at $1).
For a daily double connecting Races 7 and 8, using Toast to Coast and Cool Couple on top with Pallino, Zippin Gigi, and Erlan produces a six-combination ticket ($6 at $1). This final double should offer solid value given the competitive nature of the allowance finale.
Races that project as strongest singles for multi-race wagers: Race 4 (Neblina) and Race 6 (Daredevil Doug). Use these as singles in Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets to reduce combinations and maximize potential payoffs.
