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Mahoning Valley Race Course presents an eight-race card for Thursday, February 26, 2026, featuring a mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden special weight contests. The program begins at 12:15 PM EST. The card is highlighted by several allowance events for Ohio-breds, offering competitive purses and familiar local connections. The sequence includes standard dirt distances ranging from five and one-half furlongs to one mile. Field sizes are generally manageable, providing opportunities for tactical riding. The scratch report indicates potential cross-entries and changes, particularly in the first and sixth races, which bettors should monitor as post time approaches.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Youngstown, Ohio, calls for typical late winter conditions. Expect overcast skies with temperatures hovering in the mid-30s. While precipitation is not explicitly forecasted during racing hours, the freeze-thaw cycle of late February often results in a track surface that can carry moisture. Unless significant rain or snow occurs immediately prior to the first post, the dirt track is expected to be listed as Fast. However, handicappers should be wary of a potentially “dead” rail if the maintenance crew has sealed the track recently to protect it from overnight moisture. Historically, this track can tighten up in cold weather, favoring speed, but a tiring, deep surface is possible if temperatures rise slightly above freezing during the afternoon.
Track and Post Position Bias
Mahoning Valley typically features a distinct bias toward early speed, particularly in sprint races at six furlongs. Horses capable of securing the lead or sitting just off the pace often have a significant advantage. The stretch run is relatively short, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground unless the pace is exceptionally hot.
In route races at one mile, the dynamic shifts slightly. The start is close to the first turn, placing a premium on inside post positions. Horses drawn in outside posts (7 and wider) often risk getting hung wide on the first turn, leading to ground loss that is hard to overcome against equal competition. Conversely, the inside rail (posts 1 and 2) is often the place to be, provided the horse has enough tactical speed to avoid getting shuffled back. Watch the first few races to see if the inside path is playing fair or if riders are steering clear of the rail, which would indicate a tiring inside strip.
Race 1 Analysis
Post Time
12:15 PM
Pace Analysis
The day opens with a low-level claiming sprint at six furlongs. Star Shopping breaks from the rail and possesses enough natural gate speed to contest the lead immediately. Exchange Day, if he runs here rather than his cross-entry at Charles Town, also shows speed but may be compromised by the post if the inside horse sends hard. Greewhiz typically sits mid-pack but may be forced closer to the pace in this small field. The pace should be moderate to fast, potentially setting up for a stalker if the leaders duel.
Key Contenders
David’s Gem enters this race as a seasoned veteran with back class. While his recent form must be scrutinized, the drop to this claiming level often wakes up older horses who have lost a step. He draws a comfortable outside post in a small field, allowing jockey Bailey Weatherly to watch the break and decide when to move. If the pace collapses, he is the most logical beneficiary.
Star Shopping is the speed of the race from the inside. In these lower-level claiming events, the horse that makes the front is often the one to beat. If he can clear the field early without expending too much energy, he could wire this group. His 126 lb assignment is standard for older males here, and the rail draw is an advantage at this distance if the track is playing fair.
Secondary Choices
Greewhiz offers a consistent alternative. He rarely runs a terrible race and fits well with these class conditions. He may not have the explosive turn of foot of the top contenders, but he grinds out efforts that put him in the mix for minor awards.
Supreme Song draws the far outside post. While the post is less of an issue in a seven-horse field, he will need to avoid being carried wide. His recent form suggests he is a cut below the top two, but in a race of this nature, any horse finding their best stride can surprise.
Longshots
Making Me Crazy has shown flashes of ability but lacks consistency. He would need a pace meltdown to truly contend for the win, making him a more likely candidate for the bottom of the exotics.
Betting Strategy
Focus on David’s Gem to capitalize on the class relief. A straight win bet is the primary play. If Star Shopping takes heavy money, David’s Gem becomes an even better value proposition.
Selections
Win: David’s Gem (5) – 35% confidence
Place: Star Shopping (1) – 30% confidence
Show: Greewhiz (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Supreme Song (7) – 15% confidence
Race 2 Analysis
Post Time
12:43 PM
Pace Analysis
This allowance sprint at five and one-half furlongs features a compact field of five. Getaway Bay from the rail is a primary speed threat. In a field this small, the break is critical. Tricky Tiger also possesses tactical speed and will likely apply pressure from the outside. With only five runners, there is little chance of a traffic jam, so the race will likely be decided by who handles the fractions best.
Key Contenders
Tricky Tiger represents the potent combination of trainer Nestor Rivera and jockey Angel Diaz. This horse has shown the ability to rate and finish, a versatile style that suits this small field perfectly. Rivera’s barn is known for placing horses aggressively, and this spot seems well-chosen.
Getaway Bay is the main danger. Breaking from the inside for trainer Jason DaCosta, this horse will likely be sent to the lead. The shorter 5 1/2 furlong distance plays to his strengths. If he shakes loose early, he could prove elusive to catch.
Secondary Choices
Rebel Invasion provides a closing threat. If Getaway Bay and Tricky Tiger engage in a suicidal speed duel, Rebel Invasion is the one most likely to pick up the pieces. He carries 124 lbs, slightly less than the older horses, which could help in the final yards.
Longshots
El Muchacho Alegre faces a tough task against these condition allowance runners. He would need a significant improvement in form to threaten the top three.
Betting Strategy
The race likely comes down to the two favorites. An exacta box of Getaway Bay and Tricky Tiger is the conservative play. For better value, try to beat the speed of Getaway Bay with the tactical versatility of Tricky Tiger.
Selections
Win: Tricky Tiger (4) – 40% confidence
Place: Getaway Bay (1) – 35% confidence
Show: Rebel Invasion (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Defending Albert (5) – 10% confidence
Race 3 Analysis
Post Time
01:11 PM
Pace Analysis
This six-furlong claiming event for fillies and mares should see honest fractions. Credit Check has shown speed in previous outings and draws the two-hole. Shes a Storm also has tactical ability. The pace scenario suggests a contested lead, which could set the table for a horse sitting just off the pace.
Key Contenders
Shes a Storm is the runner to beat. Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich is a dominant force at Mahoning Valley, and this mare fits these conditions well. She has the class to handle this field and gets the services of T.D. Houghton, a veteran rider who knows this oval intimately.
Cousin Minnie is a strong contender from the Larry Smith barn. Smith has a high win percentage with claimers, and this horse has been competitive at similar levels. She draws inside of the favorite, which gives her options going into the turn.
Secondary Choices
Credit Check cannot be ignored due to her speed. If she clears early, she is dangerous, but the presence of other speed horses makes her vulnerable in the final furlong.
Longshots
Olympic Wings draws the outside post. While her form is spotty, the post position allows her to stay out of trouble. If the inside speed collapses, she could rally for a share of the purse at a price.
Betting Strategy
Shes a Storm looks like one of the more solid favorites on the card. A win bet is warranted, along with using her as a key in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Shes a Storm (6) – 45% confidence
Place: Cousin Minnie (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Credit Check (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Olympic Wings (7) – 10% confidence
Race 4 Analysis
Post Time
01:39 PM
Pace Analysis
The first route race of the day is a one-mile event for higher-level claimers. Tierney and She’s Crafty both possess route speed. Kingdom Trails from the rail will need to use that position to save ground. The run to the first turn will be crucial; whoever secures position without using too much fuel will have the edge.
Key Contenders
She’s Crafty is a mare that loves this track. While she is an older runner at age 9, her consistency is remarkable. She faces a field that is well within her wheelhouse. Angel Diaz riding is a significant plus, as he is currently one of the top riders at the meet.
Tierney is the main opposition. Trained by Johanna Urieta and ridden by Deshawn Parker, this mare has the back class to win here. Parker is exceptional at judging pace in route races, which gives Tierney a distinct tactical advantage.
Secondary Choices
Mobil Chic is an eight-year-old veteran who knows how to get a distance. She may not have the upside of the younger horses, but she rarely runs a bad race. She is a logical candidate for the exotic wagers.
Longshots
Kingdom Trails has the rail but faces tough questions about her current form. If she can save ground and sneak through on the rail, she might hit the board at a price.
Betting Strategy
A duel between She’s Crafty and Tierney seems likely. Exacta box 3-6 is the logical play. For value, look for Mobil Chic to crash the trifecta.
Selections
Win: She’s Crafty (6) – 35% confidence
Place: Tierney (3) – 30% confidence
Show: Mobil Chic (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Kingdom Trails (1) – 15% confidence
Race 5 Analysis
Post Time
02:07 PM
Pace Analysis
This six-furlong allowance for fillies and mares features a mix of speed and closers. Pop’s Girl, a three-year-old, gets a weight break at 116 lbs and should show speed. First Kiss Ever is another lightweight three-year-old who will likely be forwardly placed. The pace should be brisk.
Key Contenders
Pop’s Girl is the selection. The Larry Smith trainee receives a significant weight concession from the older mares. Her speed figures suggest she is ready for this level, and the allowance conditions for non-winners of two are often ripe for young horses with upside.
It’s Browns Time is a consistent four-year-old who brings experience to the table. While she carries 124 lbs, her maturity against the three-year-olds is an asset. She should be running late.
Secondary Choices
First Kiss Ever is the wild card. If she improves off her recent efforts, her light weight makes her dangerous. However, she faces seasoned older horses which can be a difficult hurdle for a young horse this time of year.
Longshots
Forever Flowing draws the outside post. If the pace is too hot, she could pick up the pieces, though she appears to be a cut below the top contenders on raw ability.
Betting Strategy
Betting on the three-year-old Pop’s Girl offers upside. The weight break is a significant factor in these mixed-age races.
Selections
Win: Pop’s Girl (5) – 30% confidence
Place: It’s Browns Time (6) – 25% confidence
Show: First Kiss Ever (4) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Special Collette (1) – 20% confidence
Race 6 Analysis
Post Time
02:35 PM
Pace Analysis
A one-mile claiming event. Note that More Than Five has a scratch listing in the data provided; if he runs, he is a contender, but if scratched, the race changes complexion. Assuming a scratch of the 1, Breezy Money and Kadesh become the focal points. The pace should be moderate, favoring those who can stay close.
Key Contenders
Breezy Money is a nine-year-old veteran who knows his way around two turns. At this bottom claiming level, experience counts for a lot. He doesn’t need the lead to win and can grind out a victory against this lackluster field.
Kadesh is another old timer (9 years old) who fits well here. He tends to come from off the pace. If the leaders falter, he will be the one moving fastest in the lane.
Secondary Choices
Panthera’s Fate fits the class level and gets Deshawn Parker. That jockey booking alone makes him a threat, as Parker can often lift a horse to a better performance in route races.
Longshots
Third City has shown little recently to suggest a win is imminent, but in a field of this quality, a minor award is possible.
Betting Strategy
This is a race to tread lightly. The quality of the field is low. Stick to the veterans Breezy Money and Kadesh.
Selections
Win: Breezy Money (5) – 30% confidence
Place: Kadesh (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Panthera’s Fate (4) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Stride (6) – 20% confidence
Race 7 Analysis
Post Time
03:03 PM
Pace Analysis
The one-mile allowance for fillies and mares is one of the better betting races of the day. Mon Minou and Cowgirltakemeaway are the class of the field. The pace should be honest but not blistering, which favors runners who can stalk and pounce.
Key Contenders
Mon Minou is a reliable runner for the Robert Cline barn. She has faced decent company and should find this spot to her liking. She has enough tactical speed to secure a good position from post 2 before the first turn.
Cowgirltakemeaway draws the outside post in a field of six. She has shown ability to handle two turns and trainer Jennifer Tooley places her horses well. She will likely try to clear the field or sit second on the outside.
Secondary Choices
Ebony’s Secret has the rail. If she can save ground, she has a chance to hit the board. However, she often lacks the finishing kick of the top two.
Longshots
Lil Sharpie is a three-year-old taking on older mares. The weight break is nice, but the distance might test her stamina against seasoned routers.
Betting Strategy
Mon Minou looks the most probable winner. An exacta with Cowgirltakemeaway is the solid play.
Selections
Win: Mon Minou (2) – 40% confidence
Place: Cowgirltakemeaway (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Ebony’s Secret (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Lil Sharpie (4) – 15% confidence
Race 8 Analysis
Post Time
03:31 PM
Pace Analysis
The card concludes with a maiden special weight for three-year-olds at six furlongs. These races are often chaotic. Rollin for Real and Rollin in Spiders represent the Radosevich barn (Justin). Expect young horses to be sent hard from the gate.
Key Contenders
Rollin for Real has shown potential in previous starts. With Luis Rivera aboard, he is likely to be overbet but for good reason. He has the speed figures to handle this group.
Maximum Agenda draws the 8 post. Trainer Aaron West is capable with young horses. If he can overcome the wide draw, he has a shot to break his maiden.
Secondary Choices
Mr. Riffle draws the rail. In a maiden race, the rail can be intimidating for a young horse, but if he breaks cleanly, he saves the most ground.
Longshots
Run Bobby Run is a first-time starter or lightly raced horse that could improve. Watch the tote board for clues on this runner.
Betting Strategy
Maiden races this time of year are tough. Rollin for Real is the logical choice, but spread in the Pick 4 or Pick 5 if you are alive to this leg.
Selections
Win: Rollin for Real (5) – 35% confidence
Place: Maximum Agenda (8) – 25% confidence
Show: Mr. Riffle (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Rollin in Spiders (7) – 20% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
The jockey colony at Mahoning Valley is top-heavy with talent that dominates the standings.
Luis Raul Rivera: Often the first look for bettors. He excels on speed horses and rides the rail better than most. He is aboard several key contenders today, including Rollin for Real in the 8th. When Rivera is on a horse trained by a top barn, it is a high-percentage angle.
Deshawn Parker: The “King of the Mountaineer/Mahoning circuit” in years past, Parker is a master tactician, especially in route races. His ride on Tierney in Race 4 is a prime example of where his experience pays off. He rarely panics and saves horse for the end.
Angel Diaz: An aggressive rider who is very effective in sprints. He is aboard Tricky Tiger in Race 2 and She’s Crafty in Race 4. Look for him to send his mounts early to establish position.
Bailey Weatherly: An apprentice or younger rider who has been getting good mounts. His ride on David’s Gem in Race 1 is an opportunity to show he can handle a veteran horse.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jeffrey Radosevich: A powerhouse in Ohio racing. His horses are almost always well-meant and heavily bet. In Race 3, Shes a Storm is a classic Radosevich spotting—a horse that fits the conditions perfectly.
Nestor Rivera: Known for speed and aggressive placement. Tricky Tiger in Race 2 is a typical Rivera runner—fast and dangerous.
Robert Cline: Operates a solid stable with a focus on Ohio-breds. Mon Minou in Race 7 is a strong representative of his program.
Larry Smith: Excellent with claimers and young horses. Pop’s Girl in Race 5 is an interesting entry, taking advantage of the weight allowance for three-year-olds.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best betting value on the card appears to be in the exotic pools, particularly the Daily Double and Pick 3 sequences involving the middle races.
Value Play of the Day: Race 2, Tricky Tiger (4). While Getaway Bay will take money, Tricky Tiger’s versatility offers better value. A win bet here could set up a profitable day.
Longshot Play: Race 1, David’s Gem (5). If the public overbets the inside speed, this class dropper offers significant upside at what should be a fair price.
Pick 4 Strategy (Races 5-8): The late Pick 4 is a popular wager. Leg 1 (Race 5): 5, 6 Leg 2 (Race 6): 3, 5 (Watch for scratches) Leg 3 (Race 7): 2, 6 Leg 4 (Race 8): 5, 8 This ticket provides coverage in the competitive legs while leaning on the key opinions in the allowance races.
Best Bet: Race 3, Shes a Storm (6). This mare finds the softest spot of the day and has the most reliable connections. She should be a single in multi-race wagers.
