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Today’s ten-race card at Oaklawn Park offers a strong mix of maiden claimers, allowance races, and the featured Tinsel Stakes with a $150,000 purse. Post time for the first race is 12:30 PM Central Time. The track presents a fair racing surface with some notable biases that savvy handicappers can leverage.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Hot Springs, Arkansas on December 20 calls for mostly sunny skies with a high near 71 degrees and southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Overnight lows will drop to around 52 degrees. No precipitation is expected, and track conditions should remain fast throughout the afternoon. The clear weather should provide ideal racing conditions with no moisture affecting the surface.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Oaklawn Park has demonstrated evolving bias patterns that require careful consideration. For sprint races at six furlongs, outside posts seven and beyond have performed exceptionally well, winning approximately 40% of races during recent meets. This represents a significant shift from traditional inside-speed biases. Horses drawn outside can utilize the sweeping turns and long stretch to avoid early congestion.
For route races at 1 1/16 miles, the bias is more balanced. Inside posts one through three win about 41% of races, middle posts four through six capture 37%, and outside posts account for 22%. The auxiliary finish line for mile races provides a longer run to the first turn, which somewhat neutralizes extreme post position advantages.
Running style preferences show that speed remains dominant in sprints, with front-runners and stalkers winning nearly 45% of races in fields of seven or fewer. In routes, stalkers and tactical speed types perform best, while deep closers often struggle unless the pace is exceptionally fast.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming
1 1/16 Miles Dirt – Post Time 12:30 PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming route features several horses with early speed, but none with dominant gate credentials. Wartank figures to show speed from post four, while More Money Mo and Awol have shown tactical ability in previous starts. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, favoring horses that can sit midfield and make a sustained run.
Key Contenders
Wartank is the logical favorite based on trainer Thomas Amoss’s strong record at Oaklawn and Rafael Bejarano’s riding skills. Wartank has shown consistent mid-pack stalking ability in nine career starts, never worse than third at this distance. The drop to the $12,500 claiming level represents a significant class reduction from previous efforts.
Bolt’s Treasure ships in for Kim Puhl with Assael Espinoza riding. This four-year-old gelding has faced substantially tougher competition, including a recent start in a $50,000 optional claimer at Churchill Downs. The class drop and proven route pedigree make him dangerous at likely generous odds.
Secondary Choices
Awol has the most experience in the field with 14 starts and has hit the board in seven of those efforts. Walter De La Cruz gets the mount for Joseph Petalino, and the horse has demonstrated ability to pass tired rivals in the stretch.
Longshot Potential
Bo Bo Dough drops to the lowest level of his career and gets a weight break as a three-year-old. Joseph Bealmear rides for Thomas Vance, and the colt showed some early speed in his debut before tiring. The inside post and potential pace scenario could set up for a wire-to-wire upset.
Selections
Win – Wartank
Place – Bolt’s Treasure
Show – Awol
Race 2 – Starter Allowance
6 Furlongs Dirt – Post Time 12:58 PM
Pace Analysis
Several speed horses will ensure a contested pace. Lady Aberdeen and Sultry Kitten have shown early liveliness, while Nerazurri prefers to stalk just off the pace. The projected hot fractions should favor horses that can sit midpack and rally in the final furlong.
Key Contenders
Nerazurri enters as the likely favorite for the powerful Casse-Torres combination. This three-year-old filly owns the fastest speed figures in the field and has demonstrated ability to handle Oaklawn’s surface. The outside post seven allows Torres to gauge the pace and make one decisive move.
Feasible ships in from Kentucky for Matt Shirer with Joel Rosario riding. The filly broke her maiden impressively at Churchill Downs and the connections suggest she may be spotted aggressively. Rosario’s Hall of Fame credentials upgrade any mount.
Secondary Choices
Lady Aberdeen has back class having run in stakes company previously. Peter Miller’s filly gets Francisco Arrieta, who excels with speed types. She can wire this field if allowed an easy lead.
Up the Creek represents a live longshot for Matt Williams with Assael Espinoza riding. The four-year-old filly has hit the board in five of eight career starts and owns solid back numbers that fit this condition.
Longshot Potential
Aintnoshakin Kid makes her third start off a long layoff for Lynn Chleborad. The filly showed some ability at Saratoga last summer and the recent workouts suggest she’s coming to hand at a price.
Selections
Win – Nerazurri
Place – Feasible
Show – Lady Aberdeen
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming
6 Furlongs Dirt – Post Time 1:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This two-year-old filly maiden claimer features several first-time starters, creating an unpredictable pace scenario. Flower Stone and Jawdropper have shown sharp workouts that suggest they’ll show early speed. The rail horse Pretty Dang Fast has also worked well for Ronnie Cravens.
Key Contenders
Crevalla de Vil is the morning line favorite for Mark Casse with Cristian Torres aboard. The filly has raced exclusively at major circuits (Churchill, Keeneland) and drops significantly in class. The outside post twelve actually plays to her advantage given Oaklawn’s outside post bias in sprints.
Big Red Machine debuts for Lindsay Schultz with Abel Cedillo riding. The works are solid and the sire Runhappy was a December debut winner. The dam’s first foal has three wins from nine starts, suggesting precocity runs in the family.
Secondary Choices
Clap Back makes her third start for Ron Moquett with Evin Roman riding. The filly encountered traffic trouble in her last two starts at major circuits and the drop to this level should help. Moquett’s dominance in Oaklawn maiden claimers cannot be ignored.
Flower Stone represents Steve Asmussen’s powerful stable with Johan Rosado aboard. The Hall of Fame trainer’s two-year-olds are always live, and recent workouts indicate this filly has ability.
Longshot Potential
Nyad ships in from Prairie Meadows for Cameron Milligan with Francisco Arrieta riding. The filly has faced tougher competition and the connections are capable. The class drop and favorable post three make her an interesting price play.
Selections
Win – Crevalla de Vil
Place – Big Red Machine
Show – Clap Back
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming
6 Furlongs Dirt – Post Time 1:55 PM
Pace Analysis
Bohemian Bo is the clear speed from post seven and should establish an uncontested lead. Navy Seal and Al’s Romeo have enough tactical speed to sit a close second and third. The pace scenario heavily favors stalkers over deep closers.
Key Contenders
Navy Seal owns the best recent form in the field, having won two of seven starts in 2025 while banking over $235,000. Nancy Knott’s seven-year-old gelding has tactical speed and the grinding style that succeeds at Oaklawn. He won a similar race last December in his seasonal debut.
Bohemian Bo will be the controlling speed for Thomas Vance and Walter De La Cruz. The five-year-old horse won his comeback race here in December 2024 and has proven ability to wire fields when allowed an easy lead. The question is whether he’s lost a step at age five.
Secondary Choices
Willow Creek Road has been inconsistent but capable of big efforts. The recent trainer change to Rodolphe Brisset is intriguing, as Brisset excels with horses coming off layoffs. The outside post nine provides tactical flexibility.
Al’s Romeo represents Shea Stuart with Alfredo Triana riding. The gelding drops out of tougher company and has back numbers that fit. The recent form is concerning, but the class relief should help.
Longshot Potential
Chrome’s Echo has not won since August 2021 but plummets in class today. Brett Creighton’s gelding returns to Oaklawn where he’s had his best career races. If the old form resurfaces, he’ll be a huge price.
Selections
Win – Navy Seal
Place – Bohemian Bo
Show – Willow Creek Road
Race 5 – Allowance
6 Furlongs Dirt – Post Time 2:24 PM
Pace Analysis
Multiple speed horses will contest the early lead. Electrifying Lady, Moonlight Dash, and The Great Maybe all want the front end. The projected hot pace should set up for stalkers and closers, making tactical position crucial.
Key Contenders
Moonlight Dash overcame a poor debut to break her maiden impressively at Churchill Downs. Philip Bauer’s filly has trained steadily since and the inside post two should provide a ground-saving trip. The recent workout pattern suggests she’s moving forward.
Electrifying Lady represents Steve Asmussen with Johan Rosado riding. The three-year-old filly has competed in stakes company and drops to allowance level. Rosado’s ability to judge pace makes this combination dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Key to Success is a consistent five-year-old mare for Kim Puhl and Alfredo Triana. She has hit the board in 11 of 22 career starts and excels at this six-furlong distance. The recent form is solid with two consecutive placings at this level.
Lite It Up Louie cuts back to sprint distance after tiring in two-turn races. Coty Rosin’s filly has speed and the recent bullet workout indicates she’ll be ready for this class level.
Longshot Potential
The Great Maybe ships in from Kentucky for Michael Stidham with Cristian Torres riding. The mare has back class having run in allowance company at major circuits and shows several sharp recent workouts. The outside post seven fits the track bias.
Selections
Win – Moonlight Dash
Place – Electrifying Lady
Show – Key to Success
Race 6 – Claiming
1 Mile Dirt – Post Time 2:53 PM
Pace Analysis
Lookster figures to set the pace from post seven, while Promisemeanempire and Stylish Lady will stalk from close range. The pace should be moderate, favoring horses that can stay within striking distance into the far turn.
Key Contenders
Lookster drops in class after facing tougher competition in Kentucky. Norm Casse’s filly has tactical speed and returns to Oaklawn where she’s had her best races. The outside post allows for a clean break and stalking trip.
Promisemeanempire ships in for Dan Ward with Francisco Arrieta riding. The four-year-old filly has never missed the board in four starts this year and the class drop should help. Arrieta’s 18% win rate at Oaklawn is notable.
Secondary Choices
Stylish Lady represents Steve Asmussen with Johan Rosado aboard. The three-year-old filly drops in class after facing stakes competition. Asmussen’s horses frequently outperform their odds, and Rosado provides a jockey upgrade.
Onmywaytosavthday has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of ability. David Jacobson’s filly has tactical speed and the recent form shows a decent effort at Churchill. The class level fits.
Longshot Potential
Kissin Cash makes her second start off a six-month layoff for Matt Williams and Cristian Torres. The filly showed ability as a two-year-old and the recent workouts are encouraging. The price should be generous.
Selections
Win – Lookster
Place – Promisemeanempire
Show – Stylish Lady
Race 7 – Claiming
6 Furlongs Dirt – Post Time 3:22 PM
Pace Analysis
Hey Big Un and Aero Star have the most early speed, while Lear and King Peanut will likely sit off the pace. The projected moderate pace favors stalkers who can stay within three lengths of the leaders.
Key Contenders
Glass of Jameson ships in from Del Mar for Peter Eurton with Jaime Torres riding. The three-year-old gelding drops in class after running in open $25,000-$22,500 claimers in California. Eurton spots his horses aggressively, and this class relief is significant.
Authentic Gallop represents Thomas Amoss with Rafael Bejarano aboard. The three-year-old gelding has tactical speed and the inside post 12 shouldn’t be a disadvantage given the sprint bias toward outside posts. The recent form is solid.
Secondary Choices
Tresillian makes his second start for Miguel Angel Silva with Abel Cedillo riding. The three-year-old gelding showed improvement in his last start and has back numbers that fit this condition. The recent workouts are encouraging.
Speechless drops in class for Todd James Jordan with Alfredo Triana riding. The three-year-old gellet has early speed and the recent form shows a win at this level two starts back. The class drop is significant.
Longshot Potential
Lear ships in from Louisiana for John Haran with Ronnie Huckaby riding. The four-year-old gelding has back class having run in allowance company previously and gets a significant weight break. The price will be square.
Selections
Win – Glass of Jameson
Place – Authentic Gallop
Show – Tresillian
Race 8 – Tinsel Stakes
1 1/8 Miles Dirt – Post Time 3:52 PM
Pace Analysis
Willy D’s and Money Supply have the most early speed, while Woodcourt and Mackman will likely press the pace. Rattle N Roll prefers to stalk from midpack. The projected honest pace should favor horses that can stay within striking distance into the far turn.
Key Contenders
Rattle N Roll is the deserved favorite for Kenny McPeek and Joel Rosario. The six-year-old horse has back class having run in Grade 1 company and owns the highest speed figures in the field. The stalking style suits Oaklawn’s route configuration, and Rosario excels at timing his moves.
Willy D’s will be the controlling speed for Michael Maker and Francisco Arrieta. The four-year-old gelding won the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial at Horseshoe Indiana and has proven ability to carry speed over distance. The question is whether he can handle Rattle N Roll’s late kick.
Secondary Choices
Money Supply represents David Jacobson with Cristian Torres riding. The six-year-old horse has been consistently competitive at this level and earned over $300,000 in 2025. Torres knows the track intimately and will position him perfectly.
Runaway Again ships in for David Jacobson with Rafael Bejarano aboard. The three-year-old gelding has tactical speed and the recent form shows a win at this distance. The connections are dangerous in stakes races.
Longshot Potential
Dimatic makes his first start since February for Steve Asmussen and Johan Rosado. The four-year-old colt has ability but has been lightly raced. Asmussen’s record in Oaklawn stakes is formidable, and Rosado provides a significant jockey upgrade.
Selections
Win – Rattle N Roll
Place – Willy D’s
Show – Money Supply
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming
6 Furlongs Dirt – Post Time 4:20 PM
Pace Analysis
Dive Bomber and Linzer have the most consistent early speed, while Carbone and Lips Say Bliss will press from close range. The projected moderate pace favors horses that can stay within two lengths of the leaders.
Key Contenders
Dive Bomber comes in on a three-race winning streak for Shea Stuart. The four-year-old gelding has won at this distance and has demonstrated versatility in running style. The recent form is simply outstanding, and the class level fits perfectly.
Carbone looks like a potential single for Steve Asmussen. The four-year-old colt ran brilliantly here on New Year’s Eve 2023 in an allowance race, going gate-to-wire. Asmussen keeps him protected and cuts him back to a sprint, which suits his running style.
Secondary Choices
Eglise represents Michael Maker with Rafael Bejarano riding. The four-year-old gelding has been consistently competitive at this level and the recent form shows two solid efforts at Keeneland. Bejarano’s Oaklawn experience is a plus.
Linzer drops in class for Cipriano Contreras with Emmanuel Esquivel aboard. The four-year-old gelding has early speed and the recent form shows a win at this level three starts back. The connections are dangerous with price horses.
Longshot Potential
Big City makes his first start since February for Ray Ashford with Tyler Bacon riding. The four-year-old colt won at this distance and level here in January and the barn has started the meet hot. The long layoff is concerning but the price will be generous.
Selections
Win – Dive Bomber
Place – Carbone
Show – Eglise
Race 10 – Allowance
6 Furlongs Dirt – Post Time 4:47 PM
Pace Analysis
Run Jalen Run and Gunflash have the most early speed, while Turn Up the Trees and Cybertown will press from close range. The projected fast pace should set up for closers who can rally from midpack.
Key Contenders
Missin Hollywood comes in off a solid effort at Delta Downs where he finished second in a stakes race. Tristan Ashford’s five-year-old gelding has tactical speed and the recent form shows consistency at this level. The connections are winning at a high rate.
Secondary Choices
Run Jalen Run will be the controlling speed for Steve Manley with Tyler Bacon riding. The four-year-old gellet has proven ability to wire fields when allowed an easy lead. The question is whether he can hold off the closers with the projected hot pace.
Gunflash drops in class after running in stakes company for Horacio (H. Ray) Ashford. The five-year-old horse has back class and the recent workouts indicate he’s ready for this class level. The inside post seven should provide a ground-saving trip.
Longshot Potential
Cybertown represents Shea Stuart with Amir Mendoza riding. The six-year-old gelding has never missed the board in four starts at this distance and gets a massive weight break. The recent form is concerning, but the class level fits and the price will be square.
Invictus makes his third start off a layoff for Thomas Amoss with Rafael Bejarano aboard. The three-year-old gelding ran well in his comeback race and has room for improvement. Bejarano’s 18% win rate at Oaklawn provides confidence.
Selections
Win – Missin Hollywood
Place – Run Jalen Run
Show – Gunflash
Jockey Notes and Insights
Joel Rosario rides two favorites today (Feasible, Rattle N Roll) and his 22% win rate at Oaklawn makes him the meet’s leading rider. His ability to judge pace and position horses perfectly makes him especially dangerous in routes.
Cristian Torres has seven mounts and his 18% win rate reflects his growing prowess. He excels with speed types and gets several live mounts including Crevalla de Vil and Money Supply. His familiarity with Oaklawn’s biases provides an edge.
Rafael Bejarano may be past his prime but maintains a 16% win rate at Oaklawn. He gets quality mounts including Wartank and Authentic Gallop. His experience becomes valuable in contentious pace scenarios.
Alfredo Triana has become a reliable rider for mid-level claimers and allowance horses. His 14% win rate reflects solid work, and he gets several capable mounts including Key to Success and Speechless.
Jaime Torres shows improving statistics with a 15% win rate and gets live mounts in Glass of Jameson and Schwarzmeier. His ability to save ground on speed types makes him dangerous in sprints.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steve Asmussen dominates the meet with a 24% win rate and sends out multiple live horses including Electrifying Lady, Stylish Lady, Dimatic, and Carbone. His two-year-olds are always dangerous, and he spots his horses aggressively in stakes races.
Mark Casse maintains a 19% win rate and sends out Nerazurri and Crevalla de Vil as likely favorites. His ability to ship horses successfully from major circuits to Oaklawn provides a significant edge in class-dropping scenarios.
Thomas Amoss wins at a 17% clip and gets Wartank and Invictus as prime contenders. His mastery of Oaklawn’s nuances makes his horses especially dangerous in maiden claimers and allowance races.
David Jacobson has Money Supply and Runaway Again entered in the Tinsel Stakes, giving him two shots at the featured race. His 16% win rate reflects solid placement of claimers and allowance horses.
Ron Moquett excels with maiden claimers and gets Clap Back in race three. His 15% win rate at Oaklawn makes his horses live at long odds.
Peter Eurton ships in Glass of Jameson from California, representing a significant class drop. His 14% win rate reflects smart placement and his horses frequently outperform odds.
Michael Maker gets Willy D’s in the Tinsel Stakes and Eglise in race nine. His 13% win rate shows solid work with claimers and allowance horses.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4) – Wartank, Nerazurri, Crevalla de Vil, Navy Seal as singles or key horses in competitive sequences. The sequence offers value given the competitive nature of these races.
Middle Pick 4 (Races 5-8) – Moonlight Dash, Lookster, Glass of Jameson, Rattle N Roll provide a strong anchor sequence. Consider using Electrifying Lady and Promisemeanempire as backup horses.
Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) – The final sequence offers excellent value. Key Glass of Jameson, Rattle N Roll, Dive Bomber, and Missin Hollywood with coverage on Authentic Gallop, Money Supply, Carbone, and Run Jalen Run.
Best Value Plays – Bo Bo Dough in race 1 at likely double-digit odds presents wire-to-wire potential. Kissin Cash in race 6 offers overlay value in a contentious field. Lear in race 7 provides significant class relief at a price. Cybertown in race 10 gets a massive weight break and distance specialization.
Multi-Race Strategy – Focus on using the likely favorites in races 2, 3, and 8 while seeking value in the other events. The outside post biases in sprints and tactical speed in routes provide clear handicapping angles.
Exacta and Trifecta Strategy – In races with clear favorites, consider keying them over three to four horses in exactas and playing trifectas with the favorites on top and multiple horses underneath. In contentious races, consider spreading in the top two spots while keying logical contenders in the show position.
Bankroll Management – Allocate 60% of your bankroll to multi-race wagers, 30% to straight bets on your strongest opinions, and 10% to longshot plays. The competitive nature of today’s card suggests spreading rather than singling in most sequences.
