Posted inTracks Reports

Oaklawn Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 21, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inTracks, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Oaklawn Park presents a loaded 10-race card today headlined by the $150,000 Nodouble Breeders' Stakes (Race 8), the marquee event for accredited Arkansas-breds. The card opens at 12:30 PM CST and features a mix of maiden, claiming, and stakes action over sprint and route distances on the main dirt track. The field sizes are solid across the board, with 8 to 13 runners in each race, meaning full-field competitive events that should produce generous mutuels in the exotic pools. The Nodouble is the rubber match between Bohemian Bo (post 3) and Navy Seal (post 4), who have split the last two editions of this race and also met in a state-bred allowance sprint back in December. The late Pick 4 begins in Race 7 and the Pick 5 opens in Race 6, giving bettors multiple multi-race wagering opportunities through the close.

Several horses on the scratch watch bear monitoring. Special Ops (Race 1 post 4) has a prior trainer scratch flag. Engagement (Race 5 post 2) and Silvertown (Race 5 post 6) are flagged as well. Bohemian Bo (Race 8 post 3) and Excel Calculator (Race 10 post 5) both show trainer scratches from recent starts, though both are expected to run.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Hot Springs, Arkansas, calls for a high of approximately 60-61 degrees with partly cloudy skies and north winds at 10 to 15 mph. The overnight low will drop to around 33 degrees with clearing skies. This follows a warmer day on Friday when the high reached 73 degrees. The cooling trend and dry conditions suggest a fast main track throughout the afternoon and into the evening. There has been no significant precipitation recently in the Hot Springs area, and humidity levels are moderate. The previous evening observation at Memorial Field Airport showed clear skies, a temperature of 42 degrees, and a light breeze, which supports the expectation of a fast, dry racing surface for today's program.

Given the dry week and diminishing wind through the afternoon, the track should play consistently fast. Horseplayers should factor in that the surface may be playing slightly firm, which historically benefits speed and tactical types at Oaklawn.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

The 2025-26 Oaklawn meet has shown identifiable biases that are critical for today's handicapping.

In dirt sprints, posts 4-6 have been the strongest group, winning 41% of races overall with 85 total wins compared to 66 for posts 1-3. Early speed has reclaimed the lead in the overall sprint profile, controlling sprints at a slightly higher rate than stalkers. However, inside runners have been competitive, particularly in smaller fields, and posts 1-3 have continued to chip away at the outside advantage.​

In dirt routes at 1-1/16 miles, the picture is different. Stalkers and closers are the preferred running styles, as the long run to the first turn allows outside draws to find position without excessive effort. Posts 1-3 and 7+ each have 26 wins in routes, while posts 4-6 have 25, making the route races much fairer from a positional standpoint.​

For one-mile races, which use the auxiliary finish line, the data from the 2024-25 meet showed that posts 1-3 won 40% of races, posts 4-6 won 36%, and outside posts 7+ won just 24%. The shorter run-in to the finish in one-mile events continues to favor speed and stalking types.

These biases are particularly relevant today because we have four sprint races (Races 1, 3, 5, and 7 at six furlongs), two one-mile races (Races 4 and 6), and two route races at 1-1/16 miles (Races 2 and 10). The Nodouble (Race 8) and the Ratings Handicap (Race 9) are both six-furlong sprints.

Race 1 — Maiden Optional Claiming — 6 Furlongs — Purse $65,000

Post Time: 12:30 PM CST

Eight three-year-old colts and geldings will break from the gate in a maiden optional claiming event at six furlongs. Horses that were RNA or sold for $75,000 or less at auction are eligible to run without a claiming tag. Two runners, Special Ops (post 4) and Camino (post 5), are entered with the $75,000 claiming price.

Pace Analysis

Halo Music (post 7) is the lone designated front-runner in this field. He has shown early speed in his career starts at Fair Grounds, and he should be able to secure the lead without excessive pressure. Special Ops (post 4) is a fast stalker type who will press the pace from a favorable middle draw. Feral (post 3) is a stalker who can sit just behind the early action. The pace scenario looks mild, which is a positive for horses with tactical speed and those who can stay close to the lead.

Key Contenders

Feral (post 3) is the morning-line favorite at 3/2, trained by Kenneth McPeek and ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel. He has only two career starts but showed ability at Saratoga, finishing third in his debut going 1-1/16 miles before finishing fourth sprinting six furlongs. McPeek has a strong 18% win rate at the meet with 28 wins. The cutback to six furlongs after breaking his maiden at a route distance suggests connections believe he has sprint ability, and his Saratoga form gives him a class edge over most of this field.

General Graham (post 8) is the most intriguing runner on the card as a first-time starter for trainer Eddie Kenneally. He ships from the Fair Grounds where he has been working well. He is the only horse in the field nominated for the Triple Crown, and while the $600 investment is modest, connections would not have paid that in January for a horse that had yet to start unless the morning training was encouraging. The dam was second to Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Grounds Oaks and third in the Kentucky Oaks. Francisco Arrieta, the meet-leading rider with 65 wins and an 18% strike rate, picks up the mount.

Secondary Choices

Special Ops (post 4) ships from New Orleans off a race where he finished a distant third behind a pair that dueled home in a fast time. His pedigree suggests he may be more effective at one turn than in route races, and this will be his first sprint start after three two-turn races. Ramon Vazquez rides, and he has been red hot this week with multiple victories already.

Camino (post 5) ran second in his most recent start here at Oaklawn, going six furlongs. He ran well at Oaklawn and Remington previously. David Cabrera, who has a 21% win rate this meet, gets the call. He is a mid-pack closer who will need a contested pace to deliver his best.​

Longshots

Fatguyinlittlecoat (post 1) has shown improvement, including a third-place finish at Keeneland. He is trained by Michael Maker, who carries a 13% win rate at the meet, and will be ridden by Luis Saez, one of the top visiting riders. His closing style will need a pace meltdown to be effective, but at double-digit morning-line odds he adds value to exotic tickets.​

Rochester (post 6) has only two starts but showed a flash when finishing third at Churchill Downs before a disappointing ninth here going a mile. The distance cutback to six furlongs should help. Joel Rosario in the irons is a major jockey upgrade.​

Selections

Win: General Graham (post 8)

Place: Feral (post 3)

Show: Special Ops (post 4)

Betting Strategy: The value play here is General Graham at a projected morning line of 7/2 or better. Use him on top of exactas keyed over Feral and Special Ops. The trifecta can be spread with Camino for underneath positions. A $1 trifecta box of 8/3/4/5 covers the key runners. The Pick 5 begins in this race, and General Graham is a strong single if you believe in the first-time starter angle. Use Feral as a backup in the Pick 5 if spreading.

Race 2 — Claiming ($12,500) — 1-1/16 Miles — Purse $30,500

Post Time: 12:59 PM CST

Ten horses (eight betting interests) will contest this $12,500 N2L claiming route. The coupled entries are Texas Cyclone/Skibidi Rizz (A entry) and Classically/Tis Charming (B entry).

Pace Analysis

This field lacks true early speed. Classically (post 4B) could find himself on the lead by default in a slow-paced route, which would set up well for a gate-to-wire type. Tis Charming (post 8B) is the closer from the same barn. The mild pace scenario benefits those who can sit close or stalk early fractions.

Key Contenders

Wind Rider (post 5) is the top selection here, returning to two turns for trainer Chris Hartman, who has 26 wins and an 18% strike rate at the meet. This gelding has been gelded since his last start, and blinkers come off for his first two-turn race on traditional dirt. He ran well going 10 furlongs on the Tapeta at Turfway in allowance company last year, which is a far better level than this $12,500 claimer. He drops significantly in class and gets the two-turn trip he needs.​

Promissione (post 1) earned a best bet designation from one handicapping source and is a consensus selection. He drew the rail, which is fine in routes at this distance where the bias is fairly neutral. Kim Puhl trains and Walter De La Cruz rides. His recent form at this level has been solid.

Secondary Choices

Classically (post 4B) is the Asmussen-trained entry making his second start off the layoff. If he can control a slow early tempo from a favorable draw, he could wire this field. His coupled entry with Tis Charming (post 8B) provides contrasting styles, giving bettors two shots for the price of one.​

Heavenly Deacon (post 3) has been trending upward over his last two starts, finishing in the thick of things at long odds at this level. Abel Cedillo rides, and at likely double-digit odds, he offers value underneath.​

Selections

Win: Wind Rider (post 5)

Place: Promissione (post 1)

Show: Classically/Tis Charming (post 4B/8B entry)

Betting Strategy: Wind Rider offers fair value as a class dropper trying two turns on dirt for the first time under the right conditions. Key him on top of exactas over Promissione and the Asmussen entry. Include Heavenly Deacon on trifecta tickets at a price.

Race 3 — Claiming ($25,000) — 6 Furlongs — Purse $34,000

Post Time: 1:32 PM CST

Eleven Arkansas-bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a $25,000 N2L claimer. This is a state-bred restricted field, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Pace Analysis

Several runners have shown early speed, including Texas Sequoia (post 7), Not For Everyone (post 3), and Very Cosmopolitan (post 10). The pace should be honest, which could set up late runners. The sprint bias favoring posts 4-6 is worth noting, although the inside posts are competitive in smaller fields.

Key Contenders

Not For Everyone (post 3) drops back to a more appropriate level after jumping up to face $75,000 N2L claimers here two weeks ago. She was sharp two starts back when making her first start off the layoff, easily disposing of a state-bred $20,000 maiden claiming group. The class relief combined with the distance cutback makes her dangerous. Ramon Vazquez rides for trainer Terry Brennan.​

Texas Sequoia (post 7) is the low-ceiling, high-floor type that can be tough in state-bred company. She is a five-year-old mare whose speed figures are typically a bit better than most in this field. She is making her third start off the layoff, and Cristian Torres has ridden her well in her first two starts of the meet. The meet-leading rider (62 wins, 15% strike rate) knows this mare well.

Secondary Choices

Very Cosmopolitan (post 10) is the selection from one handicapping source. She has an outside draw which is less ideal in a six-furlong sprint, though posts 7+ have shown they can compete. Ron Moquett trains with 37 wins and a 16% win rate at the meet.​

Kokomo Starlet (post 5) draws favorably in the post 4-6 sweet spot for sprints. Jane Elliott rides, and this mare has experience over the Oaklawn surface.

Longshots

Maximum To Excel (post 8) may be one race away from showing her best form. She was in contention early before tiring late when facing a similar group in December. That was her first start since April, and the January layoff kept her away longer than ideal. She is at the right level and could improve sharply in her third start back.​

Selections

Win: Not For Everyone (post 3)

Place: Texas Sequoia (post 7)

Show: Very Cosmopolitan (post 10)

Betting Strategy: Not for Everyone at a fair morning-line price offers the best combination of class drop, distance cutback, and hot jockey. Box her with Texas Sequoia and Very Cosmopolitan in exactas. Spread deeper in trifectas to include Maximum to Excel.

Race 4 — Claiming ($8,000) — 1 Mile — Purse $30,000

Post Time: 2:04 PM CST

Eleven older horses will go one mile in this $8,000 time-restricted claimer. The one-mile distance uses the auxiliary finish line and has favored inside posts historically, with posts 1-3 winning 40% of mile races in the prior season.​

Pace Analysis

Khozy My Boy (post 1) should benefit from drawing the rail after being forced wide in his last two starts. He is a horse who runs better when closer to the pace. Hawks Creek (post 2) and Black White N Gold (post 5) will also be part of the early pace scenario. The pace should be moderate, giving stalkers and speed types an edge in this one-mile configuration.

Key Contenders

Khozy My Boy (post 1) gets the top selection from one source after drawing the rail in a race where inside posts dominate. He had wide draws in his last two starts and had to cover extra ground. Dropping into time-restricted company while running for the same $8,000 tag should serve him well. The nine-year-old veteran has enough back class to handle this group.​

Hoodlum (post 7) earned a best bet tag from one handicapping source and is the morning-line favorite. He has been facing open company but recently qualified for this time-restricted condition since his last win came at the end of August. He holds a class edge over this field. Cristian Torres rides for David Jacobson, who has 15 wins at the meet. The concern is his outside post in a one-mile race where outside draws have won only 24% of the time.

Secondary Choices

Global Empire (post 10) has strung together several nice races, including a game third when facing tougher time-restricted $12,500 claimers in the slop. He cuts back from nine to eight furlongs and should prefer the fast surface. Walter De La Cruz rides for John Haran.​

Taishan (post 3) is a veteran nine-year-old with an inside post that fits the one-mile bias. Christian Navarro rides for Richard Baltas.

Longshots

Lea Me Be (post 8) is on the scratch watch but if he runs, David Cabrera (21% win rate) picks up the mount. This six-year-old gelding has shown some ability at a slightly higher level.

Selections

Win: Khozy My Boy (post 1)

Place: Hoodlum (post 7)

Show: Global Empire (post 10)

Betting Strategy: Khozy My Boy at the rail in a one-mile race is a strong play given the historical post-position data. Key him on top of exactas over Hoodlum and Global Empire. In the mid-card Pick 4, he can be a spread single or used alongside Hoodlum.

Race 5 — Maiden Claiming ($24,000) — 6 Furlongs — Purse $33,000

Post Time: 2:36 PM CST

A large field of 13 three-year-old fillies will sprint six furlongs. Large maiden claiming fields are some of the most difficult races to handicap, and this one is wide open.

Pace Analysis

There is some speed signed on from the outside, including Pippa's Noncents (post 8) and Gwen To Win (post 9). The early fractions could be moderate, as many of these fillies are debuting or have limited experience. With 13 runners, pace should be honest enough for closers to have a chance if they can navigate traffic.

Key Contenders

Engagement (post 2) showed nothing in her first two starts as a two-year-old but has changed barns and has been working well. She gets significant class relief dropping from open maiden special weight company. Her new trainer, Armando Hernandez, has strong numbers with new acquisitions, and this filly does not need to be exceptional to handle this field. Francisco Arrieta, the leading rider, picks up the mount.​

Justice Addition (post 3) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and is also a consensus pick. She runs for Cipriano Contreras, who has 19 wins and a 19% strike rate at the meet. Emmanuel Esquivel rides from a favorable post for sprints.

Secondary Choices

What's The Tea (post 7) drops in class after struggling in a maiden auction race on the Tapeta at Turfway. Rodolphe Brisset does well dropping horses in for a tag, and this filly gets blinkers for the first time. Ramon Vazquez rides.​

Gwen To Win (post 9) has earned selections from multiple sources. She has Abel Cedillo aboard for trainer Lindsay Schultz.

Longshots

Divine Celina (post 10) ran two weeks ago in a $30,000 maiden claimer here where she was sent off at 6/1. She wore blinkers for the first time and lugged out badly after the break. If the blinkers come off or she adapts better, she could improve sharply in her second local start.​

Selections

Win: Engagement (post 2)

Place: Justice Addition (post 3)

Show: Gwen To Win (post 9)

Betting Strategy: This is a spread race for exotic purposes. In the Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences, use at least three horses. Engagement on top of exactas with Justice Addition and What's the Tea underneath. In trifectas, include Divine Celina and Gwen to Win for underneath positions at a price.

Race 6 — Claiming ($24,000) — 1 Mile — Purse $36,000

Post Time: 3:07 PM CST

Nine older horses will go one mile in a $24,000 N3L claimer. This race kicks off the late Pick 5 and is a critical multi-race wagering leg.

Pace Analysis

Tejas (post 3) and Shepherd (post 6) should provide moderate early pace pressure. Brilliant Man (post 7) will be stalking from just off the speed. The pace should be fair, favoring horses who sit just behind the leaders. At one mile, the inside post bias is again relevant, with posts 1-3 historically winning 40% of such races.​

Key Contenders

Brilliant Man (post 7) is the top pick coming off an easy win in a $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race two starts back. He closed some ground in the Claiming Crown Classic two starts prior but had nowhere to go behind a wall of horses. Stepping up in class is the question, but the form suggests he is well-spotted. Erik Asmussen rides for Steven Asmussen.​

Barricade (post 9) earned a best bet designation from one handicapping source. He is the morning-line favorite coming off a strong effort with beaten $40,000-$35,000 claimers at the end of December. He blew the break but was still good enough to close wide to get up for second. Peter Miller has had a strong meet with a 16% win rate and 9 wins. The concern is whether this horse can produce two big efforts in succession.

Secondary Choices

Calycanthus (post 8) is the wild card. He has had 13 career starts, all on turf or synthetic. He was purchased at auction for $22,000 and now tries dirt for the first time under trainer Jade Cunningham, who has already tallied three winners at this meet. If he takes to the dirt, he could be a major factor at a price. Francisco Arrieta rides.​

Shepherd (post 6) is trained by Kenneth McPeek and ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel. McPeek has an 18% win rate at the meet. The four-year-old colt is the only entry not a gelding in this field and has the pedigree to handle the distance.​

Longshots

Lear (post 2) was a consensus selection from one source at projected odds of 10/1. Javier Padron-Barcenas rides for John Haran. The inside post is favorable at one mile, and if he can sit close to the pace, he could offer value.​

Selections

Win: Brilliant Man (post 7)

Place: Barricade (post 9)

Show: Shepherd (post 6)

Betting Strategy: Brilliant Man is the most likely winner but may not offer great value. Spread in exotics using Barricade and Calycanthus underneath. In the late Pick 5, Brilliant Man can be a single or paired with Barricade for safety.

Race 7 — Claiming ($20,000) — 6 Furlongs — Purse $40,000

Post Time: 3:38 PM CST

Nine fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a $20,000 N1Y claimer. This is the first leg of the late Pick 4.

Pace Analysis

Progeny (post 4) and Austrian Navy (post 1) have shown tactical speed and should vie for the early lead. First Hill (post 5) and Little Sister Sue (post 7) could also show speed. The pace looks contested, which sets up for a closer to run on. Bolt On The Rocks (post 9) is a confirmed closer who would benefit from a fast early pace.

Key Contenders

Austrian Navy (post 1) was a consistent starter allowance horse in Northern California and Ohio. She has run well at Oaklawn when properly placed. She is making her second start of the meet and gets class relief at this level. Walter De La Cruz rides for Kim Puhl.​

Bolt On The Rocks (post 9) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2. She gets an outside draw one start removed from being stuck inside in a 12-horse field. She dropped in class for this spot. Her closing style is effective but six furlongs may not be her ideal distance. Amir Mendoza rides for Wayne Potts.

Secondary Choices

Icy River (post 3) was claimed for $10,000 at Remington by trainer Armando Hernandez, who has been on fire with recent acquisitions. She has a win over this course and fired a bullet workout nine days ago. She will need to step up in class, but that is what Hernandez has been able to get these horses to do. Francisco Arrieta rides.​

Abitibi (post 6) is trained by Thomas Amoss, who has 15 wins and a 16% win rate at the meet. Rafael Bejarano rides. This seven-year-old mare could offer value in the exotics.​

Longshots

Miranda's Rocky (post 2) earned a selection from one source. Jaime Torres rides for Thomas Vance, the same trainer who handles Bohemian Bo in the Nodouble. At a price, she adds spice to exotic tickets.​

Selections

Win: Austrian Navy (post 1)

Place: Bolt On The Rocks (post 9)

Show: Icy River (post 3)

Betting Strategy: Austrian Navy offers value as an upset candidate at what should be a fair morning-line price. In the late Pick 4, spread this leg using Austrian Navy, Bolt on the Rocks, and Icy River. Exacta boxes of 1/9/3 provide coverage.

Race 8 — Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes — 6 Furlongs — Purse $150,000

Post Time: 4:10 PM CST

The feature race of the day brings together eight accredited Arkansas-breds sprinting six furlongs. This is the rubber match between Bohemian Bo (post 3) and Navy Seal (post 4), who have split the last two editions of this race.​

Pace Analysis

Bohemian Bo (post 3) is the overwhelmingly likely pacesetter. In 22 career races, he has been on the lead at the first point of call in all but six. There is no other natural front-runner in this field capable of pressing him early. Touchdown Arkansas (post 8) has some tactical speed and could be the one to challenge from the outside, but he will need to make an aggressive move to engage the favorite. If Bohemian Bo gets away with soft fractions, he will be very dangerous. If he is pressured, the race sets up for Navy Seal's late run.​

Key Contenders

Navy Seal (post 4) won the 2025 Nodouble and is the defending champion. He is a highly consistent performer with explosive late pace at times. In the December state-bred allowance sprint, he lost by only a nose to Bohemian Bo. His 8-year-old campaign began with a fourth in the Commodore Overnight Stakes in open company, where he sat too close to the pace and lost ground. Trainer Nancy Knott noted that the jockey was pushing him early rather than letting him settle into stride. Julien Leparoux, who rode him to victory in last year's Nodouble, is reunited with him today. Leparoux has 24 wins and a 16% strike rate at the meet. The key is that Navy Seal must be allowed to settle early and make his run late. If that happens, he has the closing burst to catch the leader.

Bohemian Bo (post 3) is the 8/5 program favorite. He is a horse for the course, hitting the board in nine of fourteen starts at Oaklawn but just two of eight elsewhere. He won the 2024 Nodouble by 1-1/2 lengths but faded to fourth in the 2025 edition after holding a clear lead in midstretch. He narrowly held off Navy Seal in the December allowance sprint. His biggest concern is that he has never won in consecutive starts. Walter De La Cruz has the return call. If he can get away with moderate fractions, he can spurt clear and hold the field safe. But this is a stakes race where the pressure will come from behind.

Secondary Choices

Touchdown Arkansas (post 8) is the morning-line third choice at 3/1. He has been excellent in three of five career starts and awful in the other two. He came up with a big effort to narrowly miss with state-bred N2X company in his last start and wheels back in two weeks. His outside draw puts him in position to apply pressure to Bohemian Bo. If Arrieta can make an aggressive move to engage the favorite early, it could set the table for Navy Seal to close.

One Ten Stadium (post 7) is the 2025 Arkansas Breeders' Championship winner for trainer Ron Moquett. He will be closing from far back and has some decent works in preparation. Keith Asmussen rides. He is more of an exotic play than a win candidate.

Longshots

Willow Creek Road (post 5) makes his first start for new trainer Rodolphe Brisset. He ran second in both the 2024 and 2025 Nodouble for trainer Mac Robertson and won the 2023 Arkansas Breeders' Championship. At projected odds of 8/1, he has a chance to hit the board if the pace collapses.​

Selections

Win: Navy Seal (post 4)

Place: Bohemian Bo (post 3)

Show: Touchdown Arkansas (post 8)

Betting Strategy: Navy Seal is the top selection based on the likely pace scenario where Touchdown Arkansas pressures Bohemian Bo. Key Navy Seal on top of exactas over Bohemian Bo and Touchdown Arkansas. A $1 trifecta box of 4/3/8 is the primary ticket. For deeper coverage, add One Ten Stadium in the fourth slot of superfectas. In the late Pick 3, Navy Seal can be a single or paired with Bohemian Bo for safety.

Race 9 — Ratings Handicap — 6 Furlongs — Purse $55,000

Post Time: 4:55 PM CST

Eleven fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a ratings handicap with assigned weights based on rating numbers (79 to 69). This is the first ratings handicap for fillies and mares carded at this meet.

Pace Analysis

Spring Dancer (post 5) and Miss Arlington (post 6) are likely to show early speed. Pistol (post 3) has also shown front-running ability. The pace looks moderately contested, which should produce a fair run. Closers like Titled Lady (post 8) and Swiftwind (post 10) should get a set-up.

Key Contenders

Titled Lady (post 8) has won her last four starts when running with race-day Lasix. She was never a threat in the Bugler Overnight Stakes where Lasix was not permitted. She easily won both of her recent claiming starts here and at Churchill. This ratings handicap allows Lasix, which means bettors should expect the better version of this mare. Luis Saez was in the saddle for her dominant win here two back and he returns today. Trainer Tracy Tanner claimed her, and this feels like a logical spot.​

Swiftwind (post 10) is a major contender based on exceptional current form for trainer Steve Asmussen. She has won five of her last six sprint races dating to last May. She has early speed but does not need to be in front to win. The 6/1 morning-line odds are a gift if you can get it. The outside post is actually favorable in six-furlong sprints at Oaklawn where posts 7+ have been strong.​

Secondary Choices

Liuzza (post 11) won her first-ever race at Oaklawn two starts ago with a good come-from-behind effort. Her last start on turf at Fair Grounds should be tossed. She returns to the main track at Oaklawn against a field she can beat. The outside draw is favorable in sprints, and she has shown tactical versatility.​

Spring Dancer (post 5) draws in the sweet spot for sprints (posts 4-6) and will likely be part of the pace. Jaime Torres rides for Randy Morse. She is a four-year-old filly who could be underestimated on the odds board.​

Longshots

Pistol (post 3) carries top weight of 126 pounds but has been selected by multiple sources. She has front-running ability and if the pace falls apart, she could steal it wire to wire. Francisco Arrieta rides for Tom Van Berg.

Selections

Win: Titled Lady (post 8)

Place: Swiftwind (post 10)

Show: Liuzza (post 11)

Betting Strategy: Titled Lady is one of the strongest opinions on the card when running with Lasix. She can be a single in the late daily double. Key her on top of exactas over Swiftwind and Liuzza. Swiftwind at 6/1 morning line is an outstanding overlay and a must-use in the exotics. The exacta box of 8/10/11 covers the late-running trio nicely.

Race 10 — Claiming ($10,000) — 1-1/16 Miles — Purse $31,000

Post Time: 5:25 PM CST

A full field of 12 claiming horses will close out the card going 1-1/16 miles. This distance runs fair from all posts, making the race a true handicapping puzzle.

Pace Analysis

Patch O'brien (post 9) and Camp Daddy (post 12) are likely speed types. Wartime Hero (post 4) and Texas Red Hot (post 6) will also show some early foot. The pace should be honest with this large field, setting up for mid-pack stalkers and closers.

Key Contenders

Excel Calculator (post 5) has had outside posts in his last few starts when facing significantly better competition. Drawing in the middle of the pack should allow him to be in better position early. Cristian Torres gets the assignment for the first time. His form from last summer and fall stacks up well against this field, including a come-from-behind third at Churchill Downs and rallying wins at Churchill and Del Mar. He is on the scratch watch but expected to run.

Eastside Cool (post 11) drops back to the claiming ranks after struggling in a starter allowance race at nine furlongs. He was very sharp at this level two starts ago when he overcame starting from post 12. He has eight wins in 21 career tries on this course, making him a genuine horse-for-course. Rafael Bejarano rides for Randy Morse.

Secondary Choices

Wartime Hero (post 4) drew favorably and earned the win selection from one handicapping source. He has a solid post in the 4-6 range for routes. Emmanuel Esquivel rides for Dan Ward.​

Little Steven (post 8) is being overlooked at a 15/1 morning line despite beating some of these same horses at a mile at Oaklawn last time out. He is a horse capable of stringing wins together when in form, as evidenced by a four-race winning streak at Hawthorne last year in two-turn races. Amanda Poston rides for John Haran.​

Longshots

Manfredi (post 3) ships in for Norm Casse, who has 10 wins and an 18% strike rate at the meet. Luis Saez in the irons is a significant jockey assignment for a $10,000 claimer. When a top visiting rider picks up a mount in a cheap claiming race, it is often a sign that connections expect a peak effort.

Selections

Win: Excel Calculator (post 5)

Place: Eastside Cool (post 11)

Show: Little Steven (post 8)

Betting Strategy: This is a spread race with several live contenders. In the late daily double, pair Titled Lady (Race 9) with Excel Calculator, Eastside Cool, and Little Steven in Race 10 for a three-horse spread. Exacta box of 5/11/8 provides the core coverage. Add Wartime Hero and Manfredi on trifecta tickets for depth. Little Steven at 15/1 is the prime value play in this race.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Francisco Arrieta leads the Oaklawn jockey colony with 65 wins and an 18% strike rate. He has 367 starts and a 47% in-the-money rate, making him the most consistent rider at the meet. He has mounts in Races 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 today. His mount on General Graham in Race 1 is notable, as is his call on Touchdown Arkansas in the Nodouble.​

Cristian Torres is second with 62 wins from 425 starts (15%). He rides Texas Sequoia (Race 3), Hoodlum (Race 4), Pippa's Noncents (Race 5), Progeny (Race 7), and Excel Calculator (Race 10). He knows the local horses well and has been particularly effective with stock trained by David Jacobson and Greg Compton.​

Rafael Bejarano ranks third with 54 wins and a strong 19% strike rate. He rides Black White N Gold (Race 4), Abitibi (Race 7), Demidanu (Race 9), and Eastside Cool (Race 10). His high win percentage makes him a reliable factor in all of his races.​

Ramon Vazquez has been red hot recently, winning five races on Monday's card alone. He is fifth in the standings with 40 wins but has been climbing rapidly. He has mounts on Special Ops (Race 1), Not For Everyone (Race 3), What's The Tea (Race 5), Tejas (Race 6), Baytown Butterfly (Race 9), and Come Out Fighting (Race 10). His hot streak makes him a must-use on tickets.​

Luis Saez is a visiting rider with significant mounts on Fatguyinlittlecoat (Race 1), Titled Lady (Race 9), and Manfredi (Race 10). When elite national riders come to Oaklawn for selected mounts, it signals trainer confidence in the horse.

Joel Rosario makes an appearance on Rochester (Race 6 of Race 1) and Popperina (Race 9). Like Saez, his selective presence signals live mounts.

Julien Leparoux rides Navy Seal in the Nodouble. He has 24 wins and a 16% strike rate at the meet. His reunion with the defending champion is significant, as he knows the horse's running style and will not make the mistake of pushing him too early.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Steven Asmussen leads the trainer standings with 46 wins from 500 starts (9%). His volume is immense. Today he has the Classically/Tis Charming entry (Race 2), Brilliant Man (Race 6), Miss Arlington and Swiftwind (Race 9). Swiftwind is the key runner for the barn, as she has been in outstanding form. Brilliant Man stepping up in class is a legitimate move for this stable.​

Ron Moquett is second with 37 wins (16%). He saddles Camino and Rochester (Race 1), One Ten Stadium (Race 8), and Popperina (Race 9). His presence in the Nodouble with One Ten Stadium adds depth to the stakes field.​

Kenneth McPeek ranks third with 28 wins at an impressive 18% clip. He trains Feral (Race 1) and Shepherd (Race 6). Feral is the morning-line favorite in the opener and represents strong Saratoga-level form dropping into maiden optional claiming company.​

Chris Hartman has 26 wins (18%) and trains Wind Rider (Race 2). His ability to spot horses in the right spots at the right time is well documented, and the gelding operation plus blinker removal on Wind Rider suggests a deliberate strategy.​

Armando Hernandez does not appear high on the overall standings but has been exceptional with recent acquisitions. He trains Engagement (Race 5) and Icy River (Race 7). Both horses are newly claimed or new to his barn, and his numbers with new acquisitions have been strong.​

Eddie Kenneally trains General Graham (Race 1). While his firster numbers are not elite, the Triple Crown nomination and the decision to ship from Fair Grounds for a higher purse suggest genuine confidence in this debut runner.​

Nancy Knott trains defending Nodouble champion Navy Seal. She noted after his last start that the jockey pushed him too early and that the horse needs to settle into stride before making his late run. Leparoux's return should remedy that issue.​

Peter Miller trains Barricade (Race 6) and has been having a solid meet with 9 wins and a 16% strike rate. His ability to have horses ready off layoffs is a plus for Barricade, who is the morning-line favorite.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The early Pick 5 begins in Race 1 and runs through Race 5. General Graham (Race 1) and Wind Rider (Race 2) can serve as singles or near-singles to keep ticket costs manageable. Race 3 and Race 5 are both spread races with large fields that require using multiple horses. Race 4 can be narrowed to Khozy My Boy and Hoodlum.

A suggested early Pick 5 structure (Race 1-5): General Graham or Feral / Wind Rider and Promissione / Not for Everyone and Texas Sequoia / Khozy My Boy and Hoodlum / Engagement, Justice Addition, and Gwen to Win.

The late Pick 5 begins in Race 6. Brilliant Man is a viable single. Race 7 requires spreading with Austrian Navy, Bolt on the Rocks, and Icy River. Navy Seal can be a single in the Nodouble (Race 8) or paired with Bohemian Bo. Titled Lady is a strong single in Race 9. Race 10 needs spreading with Excel Calculator, Eastside Cool, and Little Steven.

The late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) is the prime multi-race wagering opportunity. Use at least three horses in Race 7, two in Race 8 (Navy Seal and Bohemian Bo), a single in Race 9 (Titled Lady), and three in Race 10. This creates a manageable 18-combination Pick 4 at the $1 base.

The late daily double (Races 9-10) offers a strong play. Pair Titled Lady with Excel Calculator, Eastside Cool, and Little Steven for six combinations at the $2 base ($12 total).

Key value plays on the card:

Swiftwind (Race 9, post 10) at a 6/1 morning line is the best overlay on the card. She has won five of her last six sprints and has the outside post that works well in Oaklawn sprints. She should be on all win tickets and exotic plays in Race 9.​

Little Steven (Race 10, post 8) at 15/1 morning line beat some of these same horses at a mile last time out. He has a four-race winning streak in his recent form and is being severely undervalued by the morning line.​

General Graham (Race 1, post 8) as a first-time starter for a Triple Crown-nominated horse at 7/2 or better represents strong value. The trainer shipped from Fair Grounds specifically for this spot, and the leading rider picks up the mount.​

Lear (Race 6, post 2) at projected 10/1 has a favorable inside post in a one-mile race where posts 1-3 have won 40% of the time historically. He is a live longshot at a price that offers significant exotic value.​

Austrian Navy (Race 7, post 1) is an upset candidate in a field where the favorite's best distance may not be six furlongs. She has starter allowance form and gets significant class relief. At a fair morning-line price, she represents solid value.​

The overall card offers several playable races with identifiable speed, pace, and class advantages. Focusing bankroll on the late Pick 4, the late daily double, and individual exactas in Races 1, 8, and 9 provides the best risk-to-reward profile for the day. Good luck and good handicapping.

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback