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Rebel Week gets underway at Oaklawn Park with a competitive nine-race Thursday card that serves as a warmup for Sunday’s Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes. The card features a strong late-card sequence anchored by a $125,000 allowance for older fillies and mares in Race 6, a $110,000 maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies in Race 7, and a $125,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-old fillies in Race 8 that could serve as a springboard to the Fantasy Stakes and the Kentucky Oaks trail. First post is 12:30 PM CST. Today marks the 29th day of the 2025-26 meet.
The earlier portion of the card features bread-and-butter claiming races, including a pair of $12,500 Arkansas-bred maiden claimers in Races 5 and 9 that will challenge handicappers with thin form. There is also a $59,000 starter optional claiming event in Race 3 that reunites several horses from a contentious photo finish 19 days ago. The multi-race wagering menu is extensive, with 21 multi-race wagers available across the nine races, and Race 5 is involved in 10 of those sequences.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Hot Springs, Arkansas, calls for a high near 65 degrees with a low around 40 degrees. There is a chance of light rain early in the morning, with approximately 0.32 inches of precipitation possible, but conditions should be clearing as the card progresses into what is expected to be a beautiful weather weekend heading into Rebel Day. Wind should be manageable.
The main dirt track at Oaklawn has been maintained as a fast surface throughout most of the Classic portion of the meet. A surface renovation break earlier in the month allowed the maintenance crew to refresh the racing surface. Given the possibility of early morning showers, the track could play good-to-fast early with a chance of drying to a full fast rating by mid-card. Handicappers should monitor morning scratches and any track condition changes posted prior to first post.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The 2025-26 Oaklawn meet has produced identifiable and actionable biases on the dirt surface that should inform wagering decisions today.
In dirt sprints (Races 1, 2, 5, 7, and 9), posts 4-6 have been the dominant group, winning 41% of races with 85 total wins compared to 66 for posts 1-3. Early speed has reasserted control in the sprint profile, outperforming stalkers in recent weeks. The stalker win rate in sprints has declined from 40% earlier in the meet to 35% currently. This is a key factor in sprint races today: horses with tactical speed drawn in the middle posts hold a structural advantage.
In dirt routes (Races 3, 4, 6, and 8), the post position picture is more balanced, with posts 1-3, 4-6, and 7+ all sitting within one win of each other overall. Closers have recently outperformed other running styles in the routes, going 4-for-8 in the most recent week of racing. That said, early speed still controls at a 42% rate overall in routes, so pace analysis remains critical for two-turn events.
Race 1 — Claiming $12,500, 6 Furlongs, Purse $31,000
Post Time: 12:30 PM CST
This opener features eight older geldings, most of whom are moving through the $12,500 claiming ranks. The conditions favor horses that have either never won three races or have not won since September 2025.
Pace Analysis
There is moderate early speed signed on here. Boat Song (#6) has shown the ability to be forwardly placed, and Unload (#5) has tactical speed. Kunshan Bridge (#1) can show early foot from the rail. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, which generally sets up horses with some positional speed in a sprint like this.
Key Contenders
Boat Song (#6) is the consensus top pick across multiple handicapping outlets and is installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. He makes his first start since October at Delaware Park, where he faced first-level allowance company. While he finished off the board in both of those starts, he was not disgraced. His last win came on this course approximately one year ago, and he comes from the McLean Robertson barn, which can get horses ready off a layoff. The post 6 draw sits squarely in the sprint bias sweet spot. His speed figure of 75 is the highest among contenders here aside from Midnight Majesty.
Unload (#5) ran a credible third on the cutback to one turn in his last start and should be forwardly placed in this field. Drawn in post 5, he benefits from the middle-post sprint bias and is a logical contender at his 7/2 morning line.
Secondary Choices
Lightning Struck (#2) is moving to an easier spot after an off-the-board finish in a ratings handicap at Sam Houston. He just missed in a compact field two starts back when facing open $20,000 claimers, and that effort would play very well against this group. The Asmussen barn continues to run well at this meet, and riding with hot hands matters.
Midnight Majesty (#8) posted the highest last-out speed figure of 77 but exits a quick race against a “win machine.” He is 10-1 on the morning line and could offer some value underneath.
Longshots
Kunshan Bridge (#1) showed up on one algorithmic model as a contender but is generally 3-1 on the morning line with some question marks about his competitiveness at this level. Born Flawless (#7) is cold from a cold barn at 20-1 and is difficult to endorse.
Betting Strategy
This race starts the early Pick 3 and Pick 5 sequences. Boat Song and Lightning Struck look like the two to key in multi-race wagers. In win bets, Boat Song at 5/2 is fair value if he runs his race. An exacta box of 6-5-2 with Midnight Majesty (#8) underneath in trifectas provides coverage.
Selections
Win: Boat Song (#6)
Place: Unload (#5)
Show: Lightning Struck (#2)
Race 2 — Claiming $32,000, 6 Furlongs, Purse $60,000
Post Time: 1:02 PM CST
A field of seven fillies and mares will contest this $32,000 N1Y claiming sprint. The purse bump to $60,000 makes this an attractive spot, and the field has some sharp recent form.
Pace Analysis
There is limited early speed signed on for this race. Valhalla Vixen (#2) is at her best on the lead, and Talkin in Cursive (#6) has tactical speed. If Valhalla Vixen is able to establish herself on the front end without pressure, she could prove very tough to catch. The lack of speed could set up a pace meltdown in favor of the closers, but more likely it rewards forwardly placed types.
Key Contenders
Valhalla Vixen (#2) is at her best when on or near the lead, though she has been unable to reach the front in her last two starts against stronger competition. Both winners from those recent efforts came back to win their subsequent starts against better company, flattering this mare’s form. With limited early speed in this race, jockey Serafin Carmona should be able to position her on the front end. She won on this course last season in a similar spot. At 8-1 on the morning line, she represents significant value.
Windy Bay (#5) hooked a quality kind of winner last out in Titled Lady, who won by eight lengths, and that rival came back to win again at Oaklawn. She has finished first or second four times in eight tries on this course. The Chris Hartman barn (26 wins, 18% at the meet) adds confidence.
Secondary Choices
Talkin in Cursive (#6) made her local debut two weeks ago in a $16,000 starter allowance and finished fifth. She is dropping in class here. She was claimed for $12,500 in the summer and then beat open $40,000 claimers at Saratoga in her next start. She has not been as sharp recently, but she fits well in this condition and has tactical speed.
Edistrudis (#3) has moved forward with each of her starts at the meet and gets the services of Luis Saez (17% win rate at the meet).
Longshots
Lite It Up Louie (#7) is 3-1 on the morning line according to one model and has some algorithmic appeal, but the form does not jump off the page. Flat Out Rose (#1) at 10-1 is overmatched.
Betting Strategy
The value play here is Valhalla Vixen (#2) at 8-1 morning line. If the wagering holds anywhere near that price, she is a strong win bet. In the Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences, spread with Valhalla Vixen, Windy Bay, and Talkin in Cursive. An exacta box of 2-5-6 covers the main contenders.
Selections
Win: Valhalla Vixen (#2)
Place: Windy Bay (#5)
Show: Talkin in Cursive (#6)
Race 3 — Starter Optional Claiming $62,500, 1-1/16 Miles, Purse $59,000
Post Time: 1:32 PM CST
This is the first route race of the day and features a rematch among several three-year-olds who finished in a blanket finish 19 days ago. Nine runners will go 1-1/16 miles.
Pace Analysis
Misinformation (#3) was placed on the lead in his last start and set a slow pace. Horse of the Sea (#4) was a stalker, and Highly Connected (#5) closed from behind. If Misinformation goes to the front again, the pace could be moderate, which would set up a similar finish. However, the presence of Jets Rio (#6) and Best Known Secret (#1) could add early pressure and create a more honest pace scenario that benefits closers.
Key Contenders
Misinformation (#3) is the 8/5 morning line favorite and owns the highest speed figure in the field at 80, which towers over the rest. He was a heavy favorite in the last running of this condition and appeared significantly better than the field, only to lose the bob in the final stride to Horse of the Sea. Mark Casse (9 wins, 18% at the meet) has had a strong presence and this horse is a half-brother to multiple stakes winner Hot Fudge ($577K). The concern is whether his ceiling is high enough at two turns, as both of his victories came in 6-1/2 furlong races in Kentucky.
Herbs Bolt (#7) won a similar race here two back and then paired his Beyer Speed Figure when finishing third in a good allowance race at the Fair Grounds on the Lecomte undercard. The winner of that race is running back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Joe Sharp claimed this horse for $30,000 at Churchill in November and has him trending in the right direction. Luis Saez, who was aboard for his last win, is back in the saddle today.
Secondary Choices
Horse of the Sea (#4) owns the co-highest last-race Beyer in the field and won the photo 19 days ago. He is trained by Brad Cox (21% win rate at the meet) and is a serious player again, though there is some concern about whether that hard-fought effort took something out of him.
Western Warrior (#9) is a half-brother to Blazing Sevens, winner of the Grade 1 Champagne and runner-up in the Preakness. He is 8-1 on the morning line for the Mark Casse barn, giving Casse two shots in this race.
Longshots
Jets Rio (#6) is 30-1 on the morning line for Ron Moquett (37 wins, 16% at the meet) but his speed figures are well below the top tier. Large Risk (#8) at 20-1 is similarly outclassed on figures.
Betting Strategy
Herbs Bolt (#7) at 6-1 morning line is the value play, given his proven ability at this level and the jockey reunion with Luis Saez. A win bet on Herbs Bolt with a saver on Misinformation makes sense. In multi-race wagers, key Herbs Bolt and Misinformation in A slots with Horse of the Sea as a backup.
Selections
Win: Herbs Bolt (#7)
Place: Misinformation (#3)
Show: Horse of the Sea (#4)
Race 4 — Claiming $32,000, 1-1/16 Miles, Purse $41,000
Post Time: 2:03 PM CST
Fillies and mares go 1-1/16 miles in this $32,000 N2L claiming race. A field of nine is entered.
Pace Analysis
There is moderate early speed with Onmywaytosavthday (#1), Catching Heat (#3), and possibly Teatotal (#6) looking to be near the front. The pace should be fair, which plays into the hands of tactical types who can settle just off the speed. The closing bias in recent routes gives an edge to runners who can make a mid-stretch move.
Key Contenders
Bamtwentyklater (#4) ships in from Fair Grounds for the second start off the Tom Amoss claim (15 wins, 16% at the meet). She was tried on turf last out and ran a game fourth. She was very good at Prairie Meadows over the summer, winning once and finishing second in three other starts. The longer distance on dirt should suit her well, and jockey Ramon Vazquez recently went on a heater and moved into the jockey standings race. At 7/2 morning line, this is a fair price for the likely favorite.
Thea (#8) drops back into N2L claiming company after a decent pair of races with first-level allowance types. She ran a big race three starts back, coming within a neck of pulling off a 23-1 upset in a $75,000 N2L claiming race. She has outrun her odds in both N1X allowance starts. Her speed figure of 72 is second-best in the field. The outside post (8 of 9) could make it difficult to run the race she wants to run. The 5-pound apprentice weight allowance with Amir Mendoza helps.
Secondary Choices
Catching Heat (#3) ran a big race off the layoff last out, finishing second to a winner who came back one race later to account for a ratings handicap at Sam Houston with a Beyer of 69. She is from the powerful Steve Asmussen barn (46 wins at the meet) and Keith Asmussen rides.
Onmywaytosavthday (#1) is the morning line favorite at 5/2 for David Jacobson (15 wins, 13% at the meet) and has a speed figure of 70. She could benefit from the rail in the route.
Longshots
Teatotal (#6) posted the highest speed figure in the field at 74 but is listed at 8-1 on the morning line. She appears on the Scratch Watch with a trainer scratch concern, so monitor her status carefully before investing.
Betting Strategy
Bamtwentyklater (#4) and Thea (#8) are the keys to this race. The exacta box of 4-8 is the core play. Add Catching Heat (#3) and Onmywaytosavthday (#1) to trifectas. This race leads into the Pick 3 and Pick 6 sequences, so keeping the ticket manageable matters.
Selections
Win: Bamtwentyklater (#4)
Place: Thea (#8)
Show: Catching Heat (#3)
Race 5 — Arkansas Bred Maiden Claiming $12,500, 6 Furlongs, Purse $30,000
Post Time: 2:34 PM CST
A field of 12 Arkansas-bred maidens will sprint six furlongs in this bottom-level maiden claiming race. This is a critical pivot race in the multi-race wagering structure, as it is involved in 10 of the 21 multi-race wagers available today.
Pace Analysis
There is some early speed here, but it is scattered. Denali Lightning (#12) has some early foot. Southfork (#5) has shown speed. Polar Wolf (#1) is adding blinkers, which could push him forward. The pace should be moderate to honest given the large field, which could create a chaotic early sequence with 12 runners going into the first turn.
Key Contenders
Bigwrigdude (#9) is the overwhelming morning line favorite at even money and consensus top pick across all sources. He made his first start in six months last out when he faced open $35,000-$25,000 maiden claimers and was sent off at 185-1. Now he is expected to go off below even money — perhaps the biggest odds gap between two races imaginable. His speed figure of 57 is the best in this field, and his figures tell the story that he is simply faster than these runners. Luis Saez taking the mount signals confidence, as top jockeys picking up mounts on maiden claimers usually means easy money.
Gimme a Chance (#11) is the 9/5 second choice but has been beaten by double-digit lengths in some lower-level races, and there is nothing he does particularly well. He is getting class relief but lacks early speed. His figure of 44 is well below Bigwrigdude.
Secondary Choices
Denali Lightning (#12) has some early speed and should benefit from facing early-season three-year-olds despite drawing another wide post for his first start since the end of the 2024-25 meet. At 15-1 morning line, he offers more appealing odds than Gimme a Chance for the secondary slot.
Southfork (#5) has speed, which can keep him out of trouble in this large field, and his figure of 52 is second-best in the race.
Longshots
Polar Wolf (#1) is adding blinkers for John Alexander Ortiz and getting the apprentice Amir Mendoza. At 15-1, the equipment change could spark improvement. Big Country Boy (#7) at 20-1 has some experience but his figure of 49 is modest.
Betting Strategy
This is a single in multi-race wagers. Bigwrigdude (#9) at even money is not appealing as a win bet, but he should be singled in the Pick 3 and Pick 5 unless you are looking for a bomb-defusing strategy. If singling him, it frees capital for spreads in adjacent legs. If you believe he is vulnerable, use Denali Lightning (#12) and Southfork (#5) as backup.
Selections
Win: Bigwrigdude (#9)
Place: Denali Lightning (#12)
Show: Southfork (#5)
Race 6 — Allowance, 1-1/16 Miles, Purse $125,000
Post Time: 3:04 PM CST
The card shifts to higher-quality racing as fillies and mares four and up go 1-1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race. This race starts the Late Pick 4. A field of nine is entered, and the speed figures are tightly bunched, making this one of the more challenging puzzles on the card.
Pace Analysis
There is limited early speed in this route. Vino Tiempo (#1) could try to establish herself on the front end, and Mad About Marie (#4) could show some early foot. The pace is likely to be moderate to slow, which generally sets up for a pace-pressing or tactical type to kick away in the stretch. In recent route racing at Oaklawn, closers have been performing well, so deep closers have a chance if the pace is honest.
Key Contenders
Adogate (#2) routed for the first time at this level in December and finished a troubled third, about 3-1/2 lengths behind Floating Beauty (#5). She was caught in traffic behind a fading pacesetter and never got a clean run. She flashed some early foot before backing off once a longshot assumed command on the first turn. Asmussen has her back in stride after an off-form stretch in the summer. Her speed figure of 81 ties for second-best in the field. She should move forward in her second try at this distance.
Lolo Le Plume (#8) is the 5/2 morning line favorite and ships in from California for trainer Robert Hess Jr. She is stakes-placed and ran a credible third off the bench in her last start, with the winner of that race returning in her next outing to take the Grade 3 La Canada at Santa Anita with a Beyer of 83. She has one win in 15 starts but eight other in-the-money finishes, which suggests she is more desirable underneath in vertical exotics. Her figure of 80 fits right in the mix.
Secondary Choices
Floating Beauty (#5) was second to a quality kind of winner last out and has an allowance score two starts back at Delta Downs. She was wide three weeks ago but was gaining late to get up for place money. Her figure of 79 is in the competitive range, and Cristian Torres (62 wins, 15% at the meet) will ride.
Colonial Rose (#6) has the highest speed figure in the field at 82 for the Norm Casse barn (10 wins, 18% at the meet) and gets Luis Saez. She merits respect on figures alone.
Longshots
Kerry’s Kiss (#3) is stakes-placed and can make an impact with a repeat of her effort from two back at Oaklawn. She is 10-1 on the morning line, and her speed figure of 81 ties for second in the field.
Betting Strategy
This is a spread race for the Late Pick 4. Adogate (#2) and Floating Beauty (#5) are the core, with Lolo Le Plume (#8) as the California invader to respect. Colonial Rose (#6) cannot be ignored on figures. In exactas, box 2-5-8 with Colonial Rose underneath in trifectas. Kerry’s Kiss (#3) at 10-1 is a value trifecta inclusion.
Selections
Win: Adogate (#2)
Place: Floating Beauty (#5)
Show: Lolo Le Plume (#8)
Race 7 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Purse $110,000
Post Time: 3:35 PM CST
A compact field of seven three-year-old fillies will contest this $110,000 maiden special weight sprint. Several first-time starters and lightly raced runners give this race intrigue, and the connections and pedigrees are notably strong.
Pace Analysis
Black Magic River (#5) has shown some early speed, and Bet the Gray (#7) has also displayed forward tendencies. This race could develop as a moderate pace scenario with several runners looking to track from just off the speed. The sprint bias favoring posts 4-6 is relevant here.
Key Contenders
My Gun’s Loaded (#6) is a first-time starter for the Asmussen barn who hooked a quick crowd last out (she never ran, but her workmate group was fast), and the winner of the race she would have debuted in came back to take the Dixie Belle Stakes at Oaklawn with a Beyer of 84. The third-place finisher from that race also came back to win a maiden allowance with a Beyer of 73 and is entered in the Honeybee on Sunday. Keith Asmussen rides for the family barn. At 8-1 morning line, there is significant value if this filly has the talent her works suggest.
Helene’s Power (#4) just missed at long odds when making her first start since June three weeks ago. She closed well into a fast pace and came up only a neck short. That was a solid effort for her three-year-old debut, and she should move forward in her second start. Her speed figure of 58 is the best among runners with experience in this field. Drawn in post 4, she sits in the bias sweet spot.
Secondary Choices
Fraud Alert (#2) is a Charlatan first-time starter who has been working well in the mornings for Randy Morse (14 wins, 12% at the meet). Her three-quarter brother Wyatt’s Town is a winner on dirt and a multiple stakes winner on synthetic. There have been minor hiccups in training that delayed her debut, but she continues to show ability in the mornings. Jaime Torres rides.
Black Magic River (#5) is the 5/2 morning line favorite for Chris Hartman (26 wins, 18%) and gets Luis Saez. She has a speed figure of 50 and the post 5 draw is favorable.
Longshots
Bet the Gray (#7) has moved forward with each of her starts and is 7/2 on the morning line with Cristian Torres riding. She is an interesting price if the wagering pushes her out.
Majestic Moon (#3) is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Eight Rings ($474K) and debuts for the Asmussen barn. At 15-1, she is a deep longshot worth a small inclusion.
Betting Strategy
This is a wide-open maiden race where pedigree and workouts matter more than proven form. Helene’s Power (#4) and Fraud Alert (#2) are the picks for multi-race wagers. My Gun’s Loaded (#6) at 8-1 is the live longshot for win bets. In the Daily Double into Race 8, spread to cover multiple outcomes.
Selections
Win: Helene’s Power (#4)
Place: Fraud Alert (#2)
Show: My Gun’s Loaded (#6)
Race 8 — Allowance Optional Claiming $150,000, 1-1/16 Miles, Purse $125,000
Post Time: 4:07 PM CST
The featured race is one of the most challenging handicapping puzzles on the card. Three-year-old fillies go 1-1/16 miles, and several are looking to jump on the Kentucky Oaks trail. Five of the eight runners are coming off subpar efforts in stakes company, and the effects of troubled trips in those races are hard to quantify.
Pace Analysis
Multiple runners have shown early speed. Sticker Shock (#5) led every step in her maiden victory. Scot’s Law (#2) has tactical speed. I’m a Little Crazy (#6) and Copper Wind (#7) could also be forward early. The pace could be competitive if several of these fillies go for the lead, which would benefit closers like Spitfire (#1) and Authentic Cat (#4). This is a race where pace scenario is the key variable.
Key Contenders
Scot’s Law (#2) went two-for-three to start her career, including a route victory at Churchill Downs with a 71 Beyer. She came back against stakes company in the Years End Stakes, where nobody was beating the Mark Casse winner who just ran off from the field. She is a half-sister to Scottish Lassie, a multiple Grade 1 winner of $735,000. Luis Saez takes the mount, and her speed figure of 68 is the best in the field. One handicapper calls her the Best Bet on the card.
Spitfire (#1) showed promise as a two-year-old, breaking her maiden at Saratoga and then finishing a game second in the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park. She turned her head at the break in the Martha Washington Stakes in her last start, losing all position. She was never able to accelerate that day and may have simply needed the race. She wheels back in three weeks with a sharp workout and should be more fit. At 8-1 morning line, she offers significant value. Ken McPeek (28 wins, 18% at the meet) trains, and Francisco Arrieta (65 wins, leading jockey) rides.
Secondary Choices
Sticker Shock (#5) is the 8/5 morning line favorite for Brad Cox (21% win rate at the meet) off a gate-to-wire maiden victory at Churchill Downs. Her speed figure of 38, however, is the lowest in the field by a significant margin, and the figure that Cox runners typically post on their maiden breakers does not always translate to the allowance level. The contention in the pace scenario could compromise her front-running style. Search Party, the third-place finisher from that maiden win, has since won twice, including the Martha Washington, flattering the form.
Copper Wind (#7) was sharp on debut with a 75 Beyer at Fair Grounds and attracted support in the Years End Stakes at 4-1 when trying two turns for the first time. She is drawn wide and may have to sit off the pace, which could actually be a winning trip if the pace is contested. Keith Asmussen rides for the family barn.
Longshots
I’m a Little Crazy (#6) brings a 64 speed figure and a win at Churchill Downs going 1-1/16 miles. At 6-1 morning line, Philip D’Amato’s Oaklawn stats are concerning (0% win rate from 11 starters this meet), but the filly has talent. Ramon Vazquez rides.
Actis (#3) has a strong foundation of route races and is the fourth stakes winner produced by her dam. She is 12-1 on the morning line for Tom Amoss.
Betting Strategy
This is the deepest race on the card and the one to spread widest in vertical exotics. Scot’s Law (#2) is the top play for win bets. Spitfire (#1) at 8-1 is the main value play. In the $5 Daily Double and Pick 3, use Scot’s Law, Spitfire, and Copper Wind (#7) as the core. In trifectas, key Scot’s Law and Spitfire on top with Sticker Shock, Copper Wind, and I’m a Little Crazy underneath.
Selections
Win: Scot’s Law (#2)
Place: Spitfire (#1)
Show: Copper Wind (#7)
Race 9 — Arkansas Bred Maiden Claiming $12,500, 6 Furlongs, Purse $30,000
Post Time: 4:38 PM CST
The nightcap features 11 Arkansas-bred maiden fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. The form is thin and the quality is modest, making this a challenging race to handicap with confidence.
Pace Analysis
Paris Accord (#9) has shown fast stalking style and could be near the lead early. Air Castle (#4) is the fastest stalker in the field. Jack’s Gal (#8) has shown fast leads in her two career starts. The pace should be moderate with several looking to establish position, and the lack of a dominant speedball could set up for tactical types.
Key Contenders
Paris Accord (#9) was prominent over a laboring kind of surface last out and did well to hold second. She has the look of a runner on the improve and owns a speed figure of 46, which is competitive in this field. Cristian Torres (62 wins, 15% at the meet) will ride. She is the 9/5 morning line favorite with good reason.
Jack’s Gal (#8) makes her third career start after pairing her first two speed figures. She is dropping in class from the maiden special weight level and could move forward in this softer spot. Drawing farther outside after inside draws in her first two starts may put her in a more comfortable position. Travis Wales (19% win rate) has the mount. At 4-1 morning line, the price is more tolerable than the co-favorites.
Secondary Choices
Air Castle (#4) brings the most racing experience in the field with 11 career starts and has finished in the money six times without winning. She is 5/2 on the morning line and has a speed figure of 51, the best in the field. The concern is that she is a perennial maiden at this point, and her best efforts feel like they came some time ago.
Ghost Money (#2) was well-regarded in her career debut and gets Ramon Vazquez. At 8-1, she offers some value as a one-start runner who could move forward.
Longshots
Highway Seventy (#7) is adding blinkers and dropping in class for her second start. She is 12-1 on the morning line for John Alexander Ortiz. It will not take much to move the needle at this level.
Lady Belle (#6) is a first-time starter for Danny Pish (16% win rate) with Erik Asmussen (27 wins at the meet) in the saddle. At 20-1, she is worth a token inclusion on deep tickets.
Betting Strategy
Jack’s Gal (#8) at 4-1 offers the best value among the top contenders. Paris Accord (#9) is the deserving favorite. In the $5 Daily Double from Race 8, spread into this race with Jack’s Gal, Paris Accord, and Highway Seventy. In trifectas, key 8 and 9 on top with Air Castle (#4), Ghost Money (#2), and Highway Seventy (#7) underneath.
Selections
Win: Jack’s Gal (#8)
Place: Paris Accord (#9)
Show: Air Castle (#4)
Jockey Notes and Insights
The jockey standings race is tight at the top, with Francisco Arrieta holding 65 wins to lead Cristian Torres at 62 wins. Both riders are active today and should be monitored for intent in close finishes.
Ramon Vazquez recently won his 500th race at Oaklawn Park, becoming just the 11th rider to reach that milestone at the track. He went on a heater last week and moved into the jockey standings battle. Vazquez has key mounts today on Bamtwentyklater (#4, Race 4), I’m a Little Crazy (#6, Race 8), Lolo Le Plume (#8, Race 6), and Ghost Money (#2, Race 9).
Luis Saez has a 17% win rate at the meet and is one of the highest-profile riders in the country. He has significant mounts today on Bigwrigdude (#9, Race 5), Herbs Bolt (#7, Race 3), Scot’s Law (#2, Race 8), Edistrudis (#3, Race 2), and Colonial Rose (#6, Race 6). His presence on Bigwrigdude signals that the connections expect an easy win.
The Asmussen brothers — Keith (31 wins, 11%) and Erik (27 wins, 10%) — continue to provide the family barn with quality rides throughout the meet. Keith has important mounts on Copper Wind (#7, Race 8), Catching Heat (#3, Race 4), and My Gun’s Loaded (#6, Race 7). Erik rides Adogate (#2, Race 6) and Lightning Struck (#2, Race 1).
Apprentice Amir Mendoza carries a valuable five-pound weight allowance and is assigned to Thea (#8, Race 4) and Polar Wolf (#1, Race 5), where the weight break could prove beneficial in competitive spots.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steve Asmussen holds the training title with 46 wins from 500 starters (9% win rate), though his percentage is below his usual standard due to volume. He has runners spread across today’s card, including Adogate (#2, Race 6), Lightning Struck (#2, Race 1), Catching Heat (#3, Race 4), Parking Lot Pours (#7, Race 4), Copper Wind (#7, Race 8), My Gun’s Loaded (#6, Race 7), Crimsonite (#9, Race 6), and Majestic Moon (#3, Race 7).
Brad Cox carries the highest win percentage among major barns at 21% from 92 starters (19 wins). He sends out Horse of the Sea (#4, Race 3) and Sticker Shock (#5, Race 8). His route runners deserve extra respect given his proficiency with the distance.
Mark Casse has nine wins from 50 starters (18%) and has had a sensational meet, including strong performances in stakes races. He sends out Misinformation (#3) and Western Warrior (#9) in Race 3, giving him two bullets in what could be a key race.
Ken McPeek is second in earnings with 28 wins (18%) from 152 starters and has two entries in Race 8: Spitfire (#1) and Authentic Cat (#4). His ability to develop three-year-old fillies makes both entries in the featured race dangerous.
Tom Amoss runs Bamtwentyklater (#4, Race 4) and Actis (#3, Race 8) and has 15 wins at the meet (16%). His claim-and-improve approach is well-suited for Bamtwentyklater’s profile.
Chris Hartman sits at 26 wins (18%) and sends out Windy Bay (#5, Race 2) and Black Magic River (#5, Race 7). His barn runs well at this meet and his maiden runners merit respect.
Danny Pish is 16% at the meet and enters two runners from the Duffy’s Racing/Heider Racing operation: Brienz (#1, Race 7) and Helene’s Power (#4, Race 7), as well as Lady Belle (#6, Race 9).
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) is the premier multi-race wager on this card. The suggested approach is to spread in Races 6, 7, and 8 while singling or near-singling in Race 9. A sample $1 Late Pick 4 ticket:
Race 6: Adogate (#2), Floating Beauty (#5), Lolo Le Plume (#8)
Race 7: Helene’s Power (#4), Fraud Alert (#2)
Race 8: Scot’s Law (#2), Spitfire (#1), Copper Wind (#7)
Race 9: Jack’s Gal (#8), Paris Accord (#9)
Cost: $1 x 3 x 2 x 3 x 2 = $36
For the Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5), the suggested approach is to single Bigwrigdude (#9) in Race 5 to reduce cost:
Race 1: Boat Song (#6), Lightning Struck (#2)
Race 2: Valhalla Vixen (#2), Windy Bay (#5), Talkin in Cursive (#6)
Race 3: Herbs Bolt (#7), Misinformation (#3)
Race 4: Bamtwentyklater (#4), Thea (#8)
Race 5: Bigwrigdude (#9)
Cost: $0.50 x 2 x 3 x 2 x 2 x 1 = $12
The best individual value plays on the card are:
Valhalla Vixen (#2, Race 2) at 8-1 morning line is the standout value. With no early speed to challenge her, she could wire this field at a generous price.
Spitfire (#1, Race 8) at 8-1 morning line is a quality filly who had a disastrous start in her last outing and should bounce back for a top-tier trainer-jockey combination in McPeek and Arrieta.
Herbs Bolt (#7, Race 3) at 6-1 morning line is a proven winner at this level who reunites with his winning jockey and has been trending up for a sharp claiming barn.
My Gun’s Loaded (#6, Race 7) at 8-1 morning line represents the Asmussen first-time starter from a fast workmate group with flattering collateral form.
Jack’s Gal (#8, Race 9) at 4-1 morning line is dropping in class with improving figures and a better post draw than her previous starts.
| Race | Morning Line Favorite | ML Odds | Top Value Play | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boat Song (#6) | 5/2 | Lightning Struck (#2) | 4-1 |
| 2 | Lite It Up Louie (#7) | 3-1 | Valhalla Vixen (#2) | 8-1 |
| 3 | Misinformation (#3) | 8/5 | Herbs Bolt (#7) | 6-1 |
| 4 | Onmywaytosavthday (#1) | 5/2 | Bamtwentyklater (#4) | 7/2 |
| 5 | Bigwrigdude (#9) | Even | Denali Lightning (#12) | 15-1 |
| 6 | Lolo Le Plume (#8) | 5/2 | Adogate (#2) | 5-1 |
| 7 | Helene’s Power (#4) | 3-1 | My Gun’s Loaded (#6) | 8-1 |
| 8 | Sticker Shock (#5) | 8/5 | Spitfire (#1) | 8-1 |
| 9 | Paris Accord (#9) | 9/5 | Jack’s Gal (#8) | 4-1 |
