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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today features a deep mix of maiden, allowance, and claiming events, headlined by the Mardi Gras Stakes for older fillies and mares dashing five and a half furlongs over the turf course in race eight. With several top national barns shipping in their prime prospects and leading riders dominating the jockey colony, bettors are presented with excellent opportunities across the sequence.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for New Orleans this Tuesday afternoon calls for favorable racing weather. Temperatures are expected to peak in the low to mid sixties with partly cloudy skies and a gentle breeze out of the south. With no significant precipitation over the last forty eight hours, expect the main dirt track to be rated Fast. The turf course should carry a Firm designation, allowing for fair, true grass racing.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
The Fair Grounds main dirt track has demonstrated a pronounced bias toward early speed and inside posts. In dirt sprints at six furlongs, horses possessing early speed have dominated from the inside, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground on the sweeping turns. Dirt routes at one mile and a sixteenth show a similar pattern, favoring early speed and tactical pressers who can secure the inside rail position. Turf racing presents a slightly different puzzle. In turf sprints, tactical pressers who stalk just off the early pace tend to fare best, though inside posts still retain a slight edge. Turf routes play much more fairly to different running styles. Closers and patient stalkers drawn in outside posts often find the most success on the grass as they can save ground early and mount a sustained run down the long stretch.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The jockey colony at Fair Grounds is currently loaded with premier riding talent. Jose L Ortiz is riding at an elite level, demonstrating a masterclass in timing his moves over the long stretch and coaxing speed out of dirt sprinters. Irad Ortiz Jr is matching his brother stride for stride, boasting a massive strike rate for top national trainers and proving lethal when drawing inside posts on dirt. Jareth Loveberry remains a consistent force on the local circuit, riding the Fair Grounds surface with deep localized knowledge to frequently outrun his mounts odds. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr and James Graham continue to provide steady, patient rides, particularly in two turn route races where their experience navigating traffic becomes a massive asset.
Trainer Notes and Insights
The trainer standings are currently a battle of heavyweights. Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen are dominating the top of the leaderboard, both already surpassing the million dollar earnings mark for the meet. Cox brings an incredibly high win percentage to the table, while Asmussen utilizes volume and precision to drop his horses into the exact right class levels. Cherie DeVaux has been turning heads with a string of high profile stakes victories, making her turf runners demand extreme respect. Joe Sharp and Kenneth McPeek are also highly active today, frequently sending out live runners at overlaid odds in the maiden and allowance ranks.
Race 1
Post Time
12:45 PM
Pace Analysis
This opening race is a one mile dirt test for Louisiana bred maidens. The pace scenario appears moderate. Top Notch Protocol should establish the early lead from the outside post, with Musical Band and Remi securing stalking trips just off his flank. Alwaysfreaky may attempt to push the pace to avoid being caught wide.
Key Contenders
Musical Band takes a significant drop into the maiden ranks after facing tougher company and retains Jose L Ortiz, signaling serious intent. Top Notch Protocol has knocked on the door in his previous efforts and gets a favorable outside draw to dictate the fractions under James Graham.
Secondary Choices
Remi is a logical alternative who has shown tactical foot in the past and will be perfectly positioned for a late strike. Alwaysfreaky has displayed flashes of ability but needs to overcome a slight class hurdle today.
Longshots
Seize the Win breaks from the rail with Jareth Loveberry aboard and could leverage the inside draw to hold on for a minor award at a price if the speed bias holds strong.
Race 2
Post Time
01:15 PM
Pace Analysis
A five and a half furlong sprint on the main track means raw speed will be the deciding factor. Wholelottadeal and Mister Banderas possess blazing early foot and should lock horns immediately after the gates open. Achromedoutcat will look to sit the pocket trip right behind them.
Key Contenders
Wholelottadeal gets the rail post and Irad Ortiz Jr, making him perfectly positioned to wire the field given the intense inside speed bias. Mister Banderas is the primary threat for trainer Thomas Amoss and will press the issue from the five hole to try to break the favorite in the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Classical Knight is an intriguing option with the closing profile to pick up the pieces if the top two engage in a destructive speed duel. Hesper fits a similar profile and could factor into the exotics.
Longshots
Starry Eyed will be a large price but has decent back class and will need to navigate a perfect trip to hit the board.
Race 3
Post Time
01:45 PM
Pace Analysis
This allowance optional claiming route at one mile and seventy yards is highly tactical. Canal Street will likely inherit the uncontested lead, while Cool Lucky Lady will sit in the garden spot tracking the moderate tempo.
Key Contenders
Cool Lucky Lady is the class of the field and possesses the strongest late kick of this group. Canal Street is the stablemate to the top choice and could prove very dangerous if left alone on the front end.
Secondary Choices
Sweet Alexis makes her third start off a layoff, which is a highly profitable angle for her trainer, and should be running on late.
Longshots
Hopeitsmyluckyday is an aging mare but still has some fight left to grab a lower exotics share if the pace completely collapses.
Race 4
Post Time
02:15 PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden special weight on the turf features several highly regarded three year olds. The pace should be honest but not overly taxing. Good Willie and Road Trippin will show early interest, while the heavy hitters look to save ground for the stretch run.
Key Contenders
Jarrett makes his debut for the Brad Cox barn with a pedigree suggesting he will relish the distance and surface. Mount Vernon is a major player for Cherie DeVaux who excels with these turf debutantes.
Secondary Choices
Citatus represents the powerful Steve Asmussen stable and should have a strong late run. Cool Customer has valuable racing experience that the top choices lack and cannot be dismissed.
Longshots
Taterpie might fly under the radar with stamina influences on the bottom of his pedigree to sneak into the trifecta at generous odds.
Race 5
Post Time
02:45 PM
Pace Analysis
A maiden optional claiming dirt route pared down to five runners. Flash of Chaos and Props will likely duel for the early advantage while Fake Smart should enjoy a pristine stalking trip right behind the speed.
Key Contenders
Fake Smart gets a massive rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr, dropping slightly in class with a perfect tactical setup. Twenty Two Black stretches out in distance today, which should suit his grinding running style perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Flash of Chaos brings western form to Fair Grounds and could prove tough to catch if he shakes loose.
Longshots
Props has struggled to put together a complete race but could hang on for a minor award in this short field.
Race 6
Post Time
03:15 PM
Pace Analysis
This grassy route for older fillies and mares features a contentious pace scenario. Exclusive Star and Queen Wilhelmina both want the lead, setting things up perfectly for the mid pack stalkers and closers in the bulky eleven horse field.
Key Contenders
Ontario has an off the pace running style that is perfectly suited for todays race shape. Sy B gets the inside draw with Jose L Ortiz and possesses a late turn of foot that makes her a massive threat if she can navigate traffic from the rail.
Secondary Choices
Malibu Smart is a proven turf commodity who rarely runs a bad race and will be closing furiously. Competitive Threat ships in with solid synthetic form that should translate well to the lawn.
Longshots
Channel Check has European breeding and might appreciate the firm ground today.
Race 7
Post Time
03:45 PM
Pace Analysis
Three year old fillies stretch out to a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Abilene and Lady Law will show the most early intent. The fractions should be moderate, giving the tactical pressers a distinct advantage.
Key Contenders
Tap to Open makes her first route attempt for Brad Cox and will likely sit just off the leaders to pounce turning for home. Love and Trust is a major danger with recent workouts suggesting she is primed for a big effort.
Secondary Choices
Pure Joy boasts tactical speed and should be involved from the outset. Countess could improve sharply at this longer distance.
Longshots
Sister Jean could clunk up for third or fourth if the favorites misfire but looks slightly overmatched on paper.
Race 8
Post Time
04:15 PM
Pace Analysis
The featured Mardi Gras Stakes is a five and a half furlong turf dash. The pace will be electric with Big Trouble, Twirl Around, and Party Pauline all possessing blinding early speed. This sets up beautifully for a horse coming from slightly off the pace.
Key Contenders
Shining Star has the perfect stalking style for this distance and will benefit greatly from the projected pace meltdown. Civetta makes her seasonal debut with massive class appeal and simply needs a clean trip to be right there at the wire.
Secondary Choices
Lotsandlotsofcandy is a hard trying mare who rarely runs out of the money and will be rolling late. Big Trouble could be dangerous if she manages to clear the rest of the speed.
Longshots
Annies Joy brings local synthetic form to the turf and could clunk into the superfecta if the pace completely falls apart.
Race 9
Post Time
04:45 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a six furlong dirt sprint for Louisiana bred maidens. The pace will be honest with Von Erich, Dirty Straight Up, and A Gs Charlie all vying for the front. The race will likely be decided in the final furlong by whichever horse conserves the most energy.
Key Contenders
I Got the Hint removes the blinkers today, suggesting the horse is ready to fire a career best effort. Bad Joke draws the absolute rail, which is a massive advantage at this distance, and might not look back if he gets the lead.
Secondary Choices
My Touch has faced tougher fields in the past and should be tracking the early speed to get the first run at the leaders. Von Erich has shown speed in the mornings but needs to translate that to the afternoon.
Longshots
Fortysvenforthewin could pick up the pieces if the early pace is suicidal.
