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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

The Thursday card at Fair Grounds features a balanced nine-race slate, highlighted by competitive allowance optional claiming events in Race 6 and Race 7, and a deep maiden special weight on the turf in Race 8. A key narrative for the day is the dominance of the Joe Sharp barn and the heated jockey title race between Jose Ortiz and Paco Lopez.

Weather and Track Conditions

• Forecast: Sunny skies with highs reaching 51°F and a low of 37°F. Winds from the northwest at 13 mph.
• Track Condition: The main track is expected to be Fast. The turf course should be Firm.
• Rail Setting: The turf rail is set at 28 feet, which often tightens the turns and favors horses that can save ground or secure forward position.

Track Bias Analysis

• Dirt Sprints (6F): Early speed is a significant asset, with inside posts (1-3) performing particularly well.
• Dirt Routes: The track plays fairer, though speed and pressers breaking from inside still hold a tactical advantage.
• Turf: The 28-foot rail setting limits the effectiveness of deep closers. Stalkers and horses with tactical speed are preferred over one-run closers.

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Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 1: Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Analysis: This event for older horses features moderate early speed. Expect the pressers to get the jump on deep closers in a race where inside speed has been successful.

• Key Contenders: Thunderhawk (1), Silver Halo (2)
• Secondary Choices: Express Line (3), Unbridled Pleasure (4)
• Longshots: Instamatical (7)

Race 2: Claiming (1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt)

Analysis: Honest fractions are expected in this route for fillies and mares. The inside post advantage at this distance is critical.

• Key Contenders: Came Up Roses (1), Perfect Union (2)
• Secondary Choices: McKinzie Magic (6), Ballybay Beauty (5)
• Longshots: Lady Orient (7)

Race 3: Starter Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Analysis: The pace should be hot with multiple speed horses signed on. This scenario sets up well for a stalker who can sit just off the leaders.

• Key Contenders: Guile (3), Double Edge Sword (1)
• Secondary Choices: Pensacola (4), Avery’s Gem (6)
• Longshots: Premium (2)

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 Furlongs, Turf)

Analysis: A fast pace is likely with speed signed on from the inside and outside. The rail setting makes speed dangerous, but a duel could open the race for a closer.

• Key Contenders: Twolatebabydoll (2), Flash N Dash (1)
• Secondary Choices: Aurora Sky (6), More Sweeter (7)
• Longshots: Classy Beach (8), Lewinsky (9)

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Analysis: A lively pace is expected. The class of the field lies with the Steve Asmussen trainee, who holds superior speed figures to his rivals.

• Key Contenders: Bron and Brow (3), Clear as a Bele (1)
• Secondary Choices: Sounds Like Power (2), Hay Jude (6)
• Longshots: Beleout (4)

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 Furlongs, Turf)

Analysis: The pace should be honest but not suicidal. The Joe Sharp barn is particularly strong here with two formidable entries.

• Key Contenders: Stepping Stones (1), She’s a Live Wire (4)
• Secondary Choices: Dale’s Bluff (7), I B Flyin (5)
• Longshots: Hidden Map (2)

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Analysis: Primary speed horses are drawn inside, but the race may be decided by the stalkers sitting just off the pace.

• Key Contenders: Modo (2), Trouble in Love (4)
• Secondary Choices: Quantum Burst (3), Evanescence (5)
• Longshots: Aldora (1)

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 Miles, Turf)

Analysis: A full field of 14 creates potential for traffic issues. Expect a chaotic pace as horses try to clear from outside posts; ground-saving trips will be premium.

• Key Contenders: Follow Up (2), Royal Causeway (6)
• Secondary Choices: Black Hornet (1), Robert Lee (3)
• Longshots: Newman (7), Provider (8)

Race 9: Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Analysis: The nightcap features a significant class drop for the top contender, who should be tough to beat in this spot.

• Key Contenders: La Maxima (2), Metallic Maid (1)
• Secondary Choices: Betsy Louise (7), Bistineau Beauty (5)
• Longshots: Sweet Aurora G (8)

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Connections to Watch

• Jockeys: Jose Ortiz (Races 1, 4, 6, 8, 9) and Paco Lopez (Races 5, 6, 7) are in a tight battle for the title and are the key riders to follow today.
• Trainers: Joe Sharp (Race 6) is the current meet leader. Brad Cox (Race 7) and Steve Asmussen (Races 5, 8) have high-percentage runners entered in key spots.