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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
For Laurel, current conditions are 33 degrees Fahrenheit and sunny with southwest winds at 7 mph. The daily forecast calls for cloudy conditions with a high of 55 degrees Fahrenheit, a low of 25 degrees Fahrenheit, and west winds at 10 mph.
Recent trends at Laurel Park indicate a slight track bias favoring horses with tactical early speed, particularly in the sprint distances. However, the surface generally allows closers a fair chance if the early pace becomes overly contested.
Race 1
Pace Analysis
This six furlong sprint for maiden fillies features several first time starters and lightly raced contenders. A moderate early pace is expected as the field finds its footing and younger horses settle into stride.
Key Contenders
Galibean 1 has the rail advantage and could show enough early foot to be a primary factor in this opening event.
Consensus Picks
Stylish Gem 2 is a strong consensus pick among handicappers today. She traveled very well while close to a fast pace in her last start and looks primed for a breakout performance against this group.
Secondary Choices
As the Bell Toles 3 is a logical secondary option based on the potent jockey and trainer combination.
Longshots
Snowboarder 6 is dropping in class and might show improved speed against this field, making her a live longshot.
Race 2
Pace Analysis
Moving to a route distance of one and one sixteenth miles, the early pace should be dictated by inside speed. Expect a sensible tempo that allows stalkers to remain within striking distance throughout the backstretch.
Key Contenders
Mighty Lindsey 1 showed immense resilience to win her last start despite a stumble out of the gate and remains a top threat.
Consensus Picks
Ivy Girl 6 stands out as a clear consensus pick due to substantial class relief today.
Secondary Choices
Miss Fulton Gal 5 rallied well for second last time and will appreciate the stretch out in distance today. Honor Our Country 2 can improve in her second start off the bench.
Longshots
Tacit Value 4 had issues lugging out in her previous race but could threaten at a price if she maintains a straight course.
Race 3
Pace Analysis
This maiden sprint should feature a highly contested pace with several fillies eager to show early speed. The pressure up front might set the table beautifully for a patient stalker.
Key Contenders
Hoof and Boots 8 showed a likable attitude in her last start, and she gets first time Lasix today which could prompt a winning effort.
Consensus Picks
Juniper’s Jubilee 2 is receiving widespread consensus support as a top play in this spot.
Secondary Choices
My Girl Back Home 1 has excellent connections and should save ground from the rail post. Maggie’s Moon 4 brings solid morning workouts into this event and cannot be ignored.
Longshots
Have One More 7 could offer value to the bottom of the exotics if the front runners tire late in the stretch.
Race 4
Pace Analysis
A five and a half furlong dash requires extreme quickness straight from the gate. Expect a blistering early pace that will severely test the stamina of the front runners turning for home.
Key Contenders
Rerun Table 7 is expected to be prominent early and hold strong contention throughout the dash.
Consensus Picks
Kuaga 1 and Yes Picnic 2 are heavily backed consensus picks after their thrilling head to head duel last time out.
Secondary Choices
Barbados Bulldog 6 was visually impressive when winning last out despite a wide trip and is an incredibly dangerous secondary option. No Mo Muffins 8 has top tier connections and fits well here.
Longshots
Tipmanee 4 is a deeper play who could close late for a minor share if the leaders collapse.
Race 5
Pace Analysis
In this one mile claiming event, the large field size will undoubtedly create traffic issues. The pace should be honest, favoring horses capable of rating mid pack and finding clear sailing late.
Key Contenders
Mistical Curlin 8 is dropping to a comfortable level today and looks formidable against this group.
Consensus Picks
Sailor’s Return 1 is a strong consensus pick whose last race can be upgraded significantly after a poor break cost him his early position.
Secondary Choices
Quincannon 12 was badly boxed in when making his move last out and stretches back out in distance today, making him a major threat. Catatumbo 10 is a consistent performer at this level.
Longshots
What Does It Take 2 might slip under the radar but possesses enough tactical speed to stay involved at a price.
Race 6
Pace Analysis
The Nellie Morse Stakes features a balanced field. The early fractions should be moderate, allowing the classier mares to position themselves optimally for a stretch drive.
Key Contenders
Complexity Jane 7 represents a very powerful stable and should be forwardly placed throughout the trip.
Consensus Picks
Sultry Lass 1 is a massive consensus pick facing easier competition today and drawing perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Doctor Abbie 2 has high percentage connections and rarely runs a poor race. Late Nite Call 5 has the tactical speed to stay close to the pace and pounce.
Longshots
The Sky Is Falling 4 has significant back class and could awaken at a generous price.
Race 7
Pace Analysis
The Post Time Stakes over one and one eighth miles will be a grinding test of stamina. A slow pace is expected, which should highly favor horses with proven route experience and patience.
Key Contenders
Cadet Corps 4 is a veteran with a sharp tactical edge who should thrive in this marathon event.
Consensus Picks
Call Me Fast 5 is the premier consensus pick in this spot for a high percentage barn.
Secondary Choices
Jokestar 1 ships in with class lines that suggest he firmly belongs in this company. Otter Mischief 2 is steadily improving and merits immense respect.
Longshots
Warp Nine 6 will need to rebound from a poor effort but has the raw talent to surprise on his best day.
Race 8
Pace Analysis
The Barbara Fritchie Stakes promises fireworks early. Several fillies have brilliant early foot, which could easily result in a fast pace that sets up perfectly for a deep closer.
Key Contenders
Bolt Enoree 5 brings an extensive graded stakes history and sharp recent morning works into this graded event.
Consensus Picks
Dry Powder 1 is the primary consensus pick based on a sterling class advantage and tactical superiority.
Secondary Choices
Hold Your Breath 2 has excellent tactical speed and could inherit the lead if the pace completely collapses. On Command 8 has a favorable outside draw to stay out of trouble.
Longshots
Backstretch Rose 3 could pick up the pieces and hit the board at a massive price if a severe speed duel materializes.
Race 9
Pace Analysis
The General George Stakes is completely loaded with talent. The pace should be swift and contested, heavily favoring horses that can sit just off the flank of the leaders.
Key Contenders
Quint’s Brew 4 is a major threat after dominating this exact race last year and looks ready to defend his title.
Consensus Picks
Slam Notion 7 is the ultimate consensus pick, arriving on a phenomenal four race win streak and boasting a perfect record at this seven furlong distance.
Secondary Choices
Blue Kingdom 1 brings solid overall form and fits well structurally. Petingas Twin 2 could rally late for a minor award.
Longshots
Point Dume 5 is stepping up in class but has the raw speed to be highly dangerous.
Race 10
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a highly competitive maiden claiming event. The pace scenario is murky, but it will likely be moderate given the lack of confirmed, aggressive front runners.
Key Contenders
Twelve Nelson 6 has shown enough late interest in previous starts to suggest a breakthrough is near.
Consensus Picks
Run Tzu 9 is drawing the most consensus attention in this wide open finale based on steady recent improvement.
Secondary Choices
Divine Future 1 takes a much needed drop in class and gets the rail draw. Souper Vinnie 2 could show significant improvement in his second start of the current form cycle.
Longshots
Bold Mirage 5 is a deeper alternative who might offer tremendous value to those spreading wide.
