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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s card features a mix of claiming and allowance events, with several fields impacted by late scratches. Despite the smaller fields in certain spots, there are several standout performers and competitive match-ups throughout the afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Laurel Park calls for rain and snow with a high of 48°F. Winds are expected from the southeast at 6 mph. Given the high probability of precipitation, the main track will likely be off, ranging from muddy to sloppy. Historically, an off track at Laurel upgrades horses with tactical speed in sprint races, while the wide dirt surface remains relatively fair for closers in route distances.
Track Bias
Laurel Park’s wide dirt course generally plays fairly under fast conditions. However, with the expected moisture today, early speed often becomes a more significant advantage, particularly in the one-turn sprints. In route races, specifically at the one and one-sixteenth mile distance, there is a minor historical advantage for horses drawn in the middle to outside post positions.
Race 1
Pace Analysis
Woodline is the expected pacesetter, likely to take the field as far as he can on the lead. B West is anticipated to stalk from a close second or third position.
Key Contenders
B West (3) drops into a more comfortable claiming level after a layoff and should benefit from the class relief. Woodline (4) enters off a win at this level and possesses the speed to control the race from the start.
Secondary Choices
Magic Spin (1) has shown the ability to sit just off the lead and could find a gap late if the leaders tire.
Longshots
Bigdaddysboy (7) is a deep closer who will need a fast pace and a clear path in the lane to secure a minor share of the purse.
Race 2
Pace Analysis
Laysen is the most likely speed from the inside, especially with the addition of blinkers. The first-time starters in the field remain the wild cards regarding early positioning.
Key Contenders
Laysen (3) moves to the Jamie Ness barn and takes a significant drop in class from his debut. U Crocs (1) is a well-bred first-time starter who has turned in several sharp morning works.
Secondary Choices
El Papacito (4) brings the most race experience to the field, which can be a deciding factor against unproven younger rivals.
Longshots
Quain (5) has been training steadily and could improve on the track if the more favored runners fail to handle the off surface.
Race 3
Pace Analysis
Conquest Dancer and Girvinized are expected to vie for the early lead in this one-mile event. Ade will likely settle into a comfortable stalking position.
Key Contenders
Ade (4) is a model of consistency at Laurel Park and has the tactical speed to adapt to any pace scenario. Girvinized (5) rarely runs a bad race at this distance and is a major threat in the final furlong.
Secondary Choices
Conquest Dancer (1) should enjoy an economical trip from the rail and could be a factor if the pace is slow.
Longshots
Boys Go to Jupiter (3) is capable of a big effort if she can rediscover the form she showed earlier in her career.
Race 4
Pace Analysis
Night Time Nap is the primary speed, with Tony Eclipse likely to apply pressure early on the backstretch.
Key Contenders
Tony Eclipse (2) is a stakes-winning horse who class-wise stands out in this allowance field. Night Time Nap (1) is in peak form and makes his first start for a high-percentage claiming barn.
Secondary Choices
Hard as Life (4) is a consistent runner who figures to be coming with a run late in the stretch.
Longshots
Devil’s Cay (7) could potentially outrun his odds if he can overcome the wide draw and get a clean trip.
Race 5
Pace Analysis
World On Fire and Speedy Alex are the most probable frontrunners, ensuring a brisk tempo for the six-furlong sprint.
Key Contenders
Trulli Warrior (3) has back speed figures that are significantly higher than the rest of this field and looks to rebound from a poor effort last out. World On Fire (5) is sharp right now and has the speed to be a factor from start to finish.
Secondary Choices
Rapidity (1) is a hard-knocking claimer who often finds his way into the top three.
Longshots
Lou’s Birthday (8) will be closing from the outside and could benefit if the leaders duel themselves into exhaustion.
Race 6
Pace Analysis
Buckin’ Right and Sippin’ Time are expected to be the main speed threats, likely leading the field into the far turn.
Key Contenders
Buckin’ Right (5) holds a distinct speed figure edge over her rivals and has shown an affinity for the Laurel surface. Centsamilla (7) is a fresh claim who could show immediate improvement for her new connections.
Secondary Choices
Sippin’ Time (1) is dangerous from the rail if she is able to clear the field early without much pressure.
Longshots
Sweet Honey Bee (9) has shown flashes of talent and could find herself in the mix if the favorites falter.
Race 7
Pace Analysis
A very fast pace is expected here, with Ms Notion and Spencer Tiara both wanting the lead from the outset.
Key Contenders
Ms Notion (6) was highly impressive in her debut and returns from a layoff with high expectations. Spencer Tiara (1) is a classy individual who should be right there when the real running starts.
Secondary Choices
Big Earn (5) will be the primary beneficiary of a fast pace and should be launching a bid in the final eighth of a mile.
Longshots
Sassafrassness (7) would need to find her old form but has run races in the past that would make her competitive here.
Race 8
Pace Analysis
In this reduced field, Sapphire Beauty should have an easy time making the lead, with Kissed At Dawn stalking closely.
Key Contenders
Sapphire Beauty (3) is clearly the class of what remains of this field and should be very difficult to catch. Kissed At Dawn (4) is the most logical challenger and will likely be the only one within striking distance.
Secondary Choices
Royal Seamstress (1) will look to save ground along the rail and pick up a share of the purse.
