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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio offers an eight-race dirt card today with a mix of claiming, allowance, maiden special weight, and starter allowance events for both open company and Ohio-breds. Purses range from the low 12k level for the cheaper claimers up to the mid 30k range for the Ohio-bred allowance for fillies and mares, providing solid opportunities across class levels.
Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich is the central figure on this program, with multiple well-meant entrants that are all short on the morning line and positioned as key players on the card. His long-term record of more than 3,000 career wins underscores how live his barn tends to be when he populates a card this heavily. Several other familiar Mahoning outfits, including DaCosta, Hamm, Cline, Rivera, Wolochuk, and Gorham, round out a competitive local trainer colony for this program.
Scratches and changes shape several events. King Curlin is out of Race 2 because of illness, tightening that route into a compact field. In Race 6, Vesper Martini is scratched by the stewards, altering the pace and odds picture among the Ohio-bred fillies and mares. In Race 8, El Rosillo and For Mama are listed as also-eligible entries that may or may not draw in depending on additional scratches; the main body of that starter allowance remains intact around them.
Weather and Track Conditions
The Youngstown forecast calls for an unseasonably mild mid-February afternoon, with projected highs in the mid to upper 50s Fahrenheit and lows in the mid 40s, several degrees above the historical average high near the upper 30s. Winds are expected to remain light, around 4 mph, and the probability of measurable precipitation is very low at roughly 2 percent, keeping the atmosphere stable and conditions comfortable.
Recent climatological data show only light precipitation so far this month and no rain recorded in the most recent local climate summary, suggesting the surface has been relatively dry and not saturated by recent weather events. Under these circumstances, the main track is expected to be rated Fast, with a relatively tight but fair surface that should not be overly deep or cuppy. The combination of mild temperature, light wind, and dry subsoil points to consistent footing throughout the card, with minimal weather-related track changes anticipated as the day progresses.
Track and Post Position Bias
Mahoning Valley traditionally leans toward speed-favoring dynamics in one-turn dirt sprints, particularly at six furlongs, where horses that secure the front or sit close to it often have a tactical edge. Inside to middle posts tend to be mildly advantageous in these sprints because they allow runners to save ground into the turn while still having options to secure early position.
Seasonal factors can occasionally produce a dead rail in the heart of winter, creating what many horseplayers describe as an outside flow bias where paths two to four off the fence become preferred lanes. With today’s above-normal temperatures and relatively dry pattern, that extreme winter rail penalty is less likely to be a dominant factor, but early-race observation remains important. If the inside does not appear to be giving away ground in Races 1 and 3, standard inside/mid-post advantages should apply; if multiple rail horses underperform with good trips, an outside lane preference may still be in play.
At the one-mile distance, which uses a short run into the first turn, inside posts become more valuable because wide-drawn runners must either use extra energy to clear or accept ground loss into the first bend. Tactical speed combined with an inside or low-middle gate remains the ideal profile for the route races on this card, notably Races 2 and 7, where early positioning into that first turn can be decisive.
Race-by-Race Summary of Contenders
Race 1 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs
The opener is a six-horse claiming sprint for horses that have never won three races, with a moderate projected pace and no obvious need-the-lead burner. Breeze the Bayou (post 3) and Cacique Abarrio (post 4) form a strong tandem from the Skerrett barn, with Breeze the Bayou suited to a stalking trip and Cacique Abarrio offering class and a favorable weight assignment. Loony (post 1) has rail position and a capable pilot and looms as the main inside-trip alternative if the fence is playing fairly.
Beck’s Spirit (post 5) and A La Carte (post 6) complete the field as more speculative types, with Beck’s Spirit drawing appeal mainly through rider assignment and equipment change, and A La Carte bringing veteran experience but with questions about current form at eight years old.
Race 2 – Allowance, 1 Mile
With King Curlin scratched, Race 2 becomes a compact one-mile allowance for four horses. Knicks Glory (post 1) is a clear focal point, combining a favorable rail draw in a route with leading local rider Jose Bracho and solid allowance-level credentials. Bohemian Style (post 4) stands as the primary alternative, representing the Rivera barn with a rider who has been holding good form locally.
Storming Chrome (post 2) brings the Radosevich–Rivera axis to the race and offers seasoned class and stalking speed that should play well in a small field. Lucky Jeremy (post 5) is the outsider and will need improvement or a favorable pace scenario to intrude beyond a minor share.
Race 3 – Claiming, 5½ Furlongs
This lower-level claiming sprint for non-winners of two figures to feature a sharper early tempo at 5½ furlongs. J J Valentin (post 5) is the central figure, a short-priced morning-line favorite trained by Radosevich and ridden by Luis Raul Rivera, a high-percentage pairing that typically excels in these compact fields. Vidiano (post 6) enjoys an advantageous outside draw for a sprint and projects a pressing or stalking trip that can keep him within range of the top choice.
Complex Cat (post 4) fits as a logical secondary contender, drawn in the mid-gate region with tactical speed and a barn that places stock aggressively. No Authority (post 1) draws the rail and must work out a ground-saving trip; if the inside is fair and he leaves alertly, he can factor. Quarantino (post 2) and Parade of Fears (post 7) profile more as underneath or fringe players needing help from pace and trip.
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
The maiden special weight is built around a standout favorite. Game and Smart (post 1) for the Radosevich–Rivera combination is strongly preferred on figures, connections, and projected trip, with a significantly higher performance rating than any rival and the tactical speed to control the race from the rail. Total Silence (post 5), also from the Radosevich barn, and Monopoli (post 6) for Wolochuk and Keiser form the main supporting cast.
Monopoli brings a strong rating and some class relief that make him the likeliest non-Radosevich threat. Cold Front (post 4) has backers off a prior beaten-favorite effort and mid-range figures, while Runningonhighlevel (post 3), Bitofjustice (post 2), and Cor Spice (post 7) appear as longer-priced maidens needing substantial improvement to upend the main trio.
Race 5 – Ohio-Bred Claiming, 6 Furlongs
Race 5 is a full-field Ohio-bred $15,000 claimer with multiple pace elements and good depth. Envelope Please (post 8) from the Radosevich family operation with Rivera aboard takes a prominent role as a logical favorite with tactical speed and solid state-bred form. Silent Drill (post 9) for Craig Sweeting and Angel Diaz sits just outside and has been identified by several handicappers as a strong alternative, especially if outside lanes are preferred.
Stormed Out (post 3) for the Cline–Bracho team and National Story (post 1) for Wolochuk and Keiser are key supporting players, both with credible local form and suitable running styles for a pacey six-furlong event. Tahlequah Joe (post 4), Redden (post 5), Man’s Choice (post 6), and Drill’s Boy (post 7) round out a group of secondary and longshot contenders, many of whom have some speed but must either withstand pressure or find the right trip behind the leaders.
Race 6 – Ohio-Bred Allowance F&M, 6 Furlongs
The feature-level Ohio-bred allowance for fillies and mares, reduced to six after the scratch of Vesper Martini, is one of the day’s deepest races. Miss Elecktra (post 1) for Jason DaCosta and Alexander Chavez is a mild favorite, combining strong pedigree indicators and a favorable inside draw with a respected regional barn. All Pepped Up (post 5) off an impressive debut win for the Gorham stable is the key up-and-comer, viewed by many as capable of repeating against this tougher group.
Secret Caller (post 4) arrives off a decisive victory and is pegged by form analysts as the primary upset candidate, with a weight break and demonstrated finishing ability at this distance. Secret Valentine (post 2) offers early speed and solid intermediate form, while Lady Indya (post 3) and Sunny Lion (post 6) sit in the mid-price range as improving or honest types capable of grabbing pieces if trips and pace cooperate.
Race 7 – Allowance F&M, 1 Mile
Race 7 is a competitive one-mile allowance for fillies and mares that should appeal to trip-oriented handicappers. Lofty Cowtown (post 6) for Megan Fadlovich and Mauro Cedillo is a notable value-oriented consensus choice at a mid-range morning line, projecting a stalking or mid-pack route trip with enough kick to capitalize in the lane. Little Miss Munny (post 2) benefits from the inside draw and the services of Rocco Bowen, who sits near the top of the local jockey standings and has the tactical savvy to exploit position.
Miss Fussy Pants (post 4) brings the Rivera–Rivera team (trainer and jockey) into the race, and her consistent allowance efforts make her a logical top-three player. Asian Matriarch (post 1) for Cline and Fernandez stands to save all the ground from the rail and could be very difficult to pass if she establishes position into the first turn. My Kathryn Rose (post 7) from the Eric Reed barn adds an intriguing element, as Reed’s presence at this circuit often signals intent, while Haut Les Coeurs (post 8), Sacred Connection (post 3), and Ima Mom (post 5) fill out the group as more price-dependent options.
Race 8 – Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs
The finale is a starter allowance sprint with a blend of early speed and stalkers. Tonight (post 4) for Jeffrey Radosevich and Jose Bracho anchors the field, combining strong barn and rider power with a projected stalking trip that should have him in prime striking position turning for home. Don’t Stop (post 1) under Angel Diaz has rail speed and starter-level class that make him a natural pace factor and win candidate.
Poppy’s Pride (post 2), a recent winner at Mahoning for the Vecchio–Crispin team, fits well on current form and carries enough tactical speed to stay in touch early. Ismybusiness (post 5) for Eggleston and Fernandez adds another pace presence with proven form at the starter level. Prince of Pennies (post 3) for the Elliott barn benefits from a weight break and shapes as a mid-price runner who can take advantage if the pace gets contested. Me and Chili (post 7) profiles as the late-running longshot who becomes more dangerous the hotter the early fractions become.
Jockey and Trainer Snapshot
The rider colony is anchored by Jose Bracho, who leads the local standings and has key mounts on live horses across multiple races, especially for the stronger barns. Rocco Bowen, close behind in the standings, appears on an important route mount in Race 7 and figures prominently whenever stamina and tactical judgment are at a premium. Luis Raul Rivera remains one of the most productive jockeys to ride Mahoning regularly, holding a strong overall career strike rate and teaming today with several of the program’s key contenders across multiple races.
On the training side, the day is dominated by the Radosevich operation, both Jeffrey and family, whose runners appear in several races and are consistently short on the morning line. Supporting that presence are strong regional stables like Jason DaCosta in the Ohio-bred feature, Robert Gorham with an in-form allowance filly, and local fixtures such as Cline, Rivera, Wolochuk, and Hamm, all of whom have live shots on this card.
