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Mahoning Valley presents a full 10-race card featuring a diverse mix of maiden special weights for Ohio-bred fillies, claiming races ranging from $4,000 to $7,500, starter optional claiming, and allowance conditions for registered Ohio-bred runners. The card offers total purses exceeding $265,000 with post times running from 12:15 PM through 4:27 PM Central Time.
The program showcases seven of ten races restricted to registered Ohio-bred horses, highlighting Ohio’s commitment to its thoroughbred breeding industry. Racing distances span from 5.5 furlongs to 1 mile 70 yards, with the majority contested at sprint distances where Mahoning Valley’s pronounced track configuration advantages come into play.
Several notable scratches impact the card: Mose Perfect and Shivaree from Race 5, Full Time Strutin from Race 6, Deterrent from Race 8, and Deadpan from Race 9. Richard Zielinski dominates entries with seven starters across six races, while Jeffrey Radosevich, the Hall of Fame horseman who recently saddled his 2,000th career winner, fields multiple runners throughout the program.
WEATHER AND TRACK CONDITIONS
Wednesday’s racing unfolds under cold but manageable conditions with temperatures ranging from 24°F in the morning to 31°F during afternoon races. Light 6 mph winds from the north-northwest create a “feels like” temperature around 23-24°F, while humidity sits at 47% with scattered clouds and partial sunshine throughout the program.
The track surface is expected to be fast and sealed, characteristic of Mahoning Valley’s winter racing conditions. Cold temperatures create an exceptionally fast surface that amplifies the track’s existing speed bias. No precipitation is forecast with clear conditions expected, ensuring consistent footing throughout the card with minimal variance in racing surface.
The dry, cold conditions should produce fast fractions and favor front-running tactics, particularly at sprint distances where ground-saving trips become paramount on the tight Mahoning Valley oval.
TRACK BIAS AND POST POSITION ANALYSIS
Mahoning Valley exhibits one of North America’s most pronounced inside post biases, particularly at sprint distances of six furlongs and shorter. The one-mile oval configuration features 80-foot-wide turns banked at six percent with a relatively short 1,000-foot stretch run.
Sprint Distances (5.5F to 6F):
- Posts 1-4: Significantly higher win percentages
- Post 5: 18% win rate, still strong advantage
- Posts 6-10: Declining performance and structural disadvantages
Route Distances (1 Mile+):
- Bias moderates but remains relevant
- Longer run to first turn allows gradual positioning from middle/outside posts
- More tactical flexibility available compared to sprints
The sealed winter surface amplifies speed bias considerably. Cold temperatures create exceptional surface speed, making tactical speed paramount throughout the program. Inside-drawn horses avoid energy-sapping wide trips that compromise stretch-running ability, while the short stretch run provides insufficient distance for deep closers to mount effective rallies.
RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS
RACE 1 – Maiden Special Weight | 5.5 Furlongs | 12:15 PM | (6 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Loco Coco (Post 4) – Mauro Cedillo up for Tina Casalinova. Middle post provides tactical flexibility with favorable positioning opportunities.
- Some Old Song (Post 1) – Angel Diaz up for Rey Juarez-Mendoza. Rail position offers structural advantage at sprint distance if breaking alertly.
Secondary Choices:
- Truest Air (Post 5) – Luis Rivera up for Penny Rone. Must break cleanly to overcome outside-of-middle positioning.
- First Kiss Ever (Post 6) – Jose Bracho up for Justin Radosevich. Outside post faces most difficult assignment.
RACE 2 – Maiden Special Weight | 6 Furlongs | 12:43 PM | (6 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Jac’s Cocoabella (Post 3) – Chelsey Keiser up for Ivan Vazquez. Middle post allows tactical flexibility. Vazquez shows 33% win rate over last 21 days.
- Stacy Ellen (Post 6) – Mauro Cedillo up for Richard Zielinski. Recent second-place finish at 9-4 odds indicates solid form. Zielinski is hot trainer.
Secondary Choices:
- Lil Sharpie (Post 2) – David Haldar up for Ivan Vazquez. Inside post provides clear advantage if breaking alertly.
- Bobber’s Rocket (Post 4) – Fernando Salazar Becerra up for Richard Zielinski. Middle-inside post favorable for tactical speed runners.
RACE 3 – Claiming ($7,500) | 6 Furlongs | 1:11 PM | (7 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Chief Buckeye (Post 6) – Brandon Tapara up for Ramon Salcedo. Tapara in hot form including recent 6-1 winner. Recent second-place finish demonstrates ability to overcome unfavorable draws.
- Mor Crafty (Post 1) – Mauro Cedillo up for Robert Guciardo. Rail position at sprint distance provides maximum advantage. Six-year-old brings experience and Mahoning Valley familiarity.
Secondary Choices:
- Serendipitous (Post 3) – Laureano Sosa up for Jeffrey Radosevich. Hall of Fame trainer’s recent excellence validates spot selection. Middle post allows tactical flexibility.
- Private Drive (Post 4) – Alexander Chavez up for Michelle Winters. Inside-middle post provides positional advantage.
RACE 4 – Claiming ($7,500) | 6 Furlongs | 1:39 PM | (8 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Weekend Buzz (Post 2) – Laureano Sosa up for Ivan Calderon. Favorable inside draw allows ground-saving trip. Eight-year-old indicates surface familiarity.
- Stone Cold Cat (Post 4) – David Haldar up for Ivan Calderon. Inside-middle post offers positional flexibility. Ten-year-old brings extensive experience.
Secondary Choices:
- Redden (Post 1) – Victor Fernandez up for Robert Cline. Rail position represents maximum advantage at sprint distance.
- National Story (Post 6) – Chelsey Keiser up for David Wolochuk. Keiser’s 400+ career wins provide confident handling despite outside post disadvantage.
RACE 5 – Claiming ($5,000) | 1 Mile | 2:07 PM | (10 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Only Get’n Better (Post 10) – Rocco Bowen up for Julie Pappada. Morning line 5-2 favorite. Outside post less problematic at route distance. Receives weight allowance as non-winner since January 4.
- Master of the Nite (Post 1) – Luis Rivera up for Jeffrey Radosevich. Hall of Fame trainer’s excellence with Luis Rivera’s capable 9% win rate. Rail position saves ground with tactical options.
Secondary Choices:
- Sudden Shift (Post 7) – Alexander Chavez up for Nestor Rivera. Rivera shows 23.5% win rate over last 21 days (hot trainer). Middle-outside post allows flexibility.
- Toast to Coast (Post 5) – Luis Tapara up for Jay Bernardini. Bernardini’s recent Mahoning Valley wins suggest stable firing. Middle post provides options.
RACE 6 – Claiming ($4,000) | 6 Furlongs | 2:35 PM | (8 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- She’s So Bearrish (Post 4) – David Haldar up for Jami Poole. Inside-middle draw provides ground-saving advantages. Haldar understands track bias. Poole targets appropriate claiming levels.
- Quick Recovery (Post 8) – Jose Bracho up for Jeffrey Radosevich. Outside post challenged by distance, but Radosevich’s Hall of Fame credentials provide confidence. Receives weight allowance.
Secondary Choices:
- Right Trappe (Post 3) – Luis Rivera up for Penny Rone. Eight-year-old mare brings experience. Inside-middle post advantageous at sprint. Receives weight allowance.
- Lucky Phoenix (Post 2) – Yuri Yaranga up for Shane Spiess. Inside post advantage if breaking alertly.
RACE 7 – Starter Optional Claiming ($25,000) | 6 Furlongs | 3:03 PM | (8 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Lady Wellington (Post 1) – Alexander Crispin up for Rodrigo Madrigal Sr. Rail position at sprint provides maximum advantage. Weight allowance as non-winner since January 4. Crispin demonstrates solid track familiarity.
- Larimar (Post 3) – Luis Batista up for Eddie Clouston. Nine-year-old mare brings extensive experience and proven class. Inside-middle post allows ground-saving journey.
Secondary Choices:
- Lucky Cougar (Post 4) – Alexander Chavez up for Nestor Rivera. Rivera’s 23.5% win rate (hot trainer) significant. Middle post provides tactical options.
- Hartful Hope (Post 2) – Brandon Tapara up for Richard Zielinski. Tapara in hot form. Zielinski is leading trainer today. Inside post advantage.
RACE 8 – Allowance (Non-winners of 3 Races) | 6 Furlongs | 3:31 PM | (7 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Professor Nick (Post 2) – Victor Fernandez up for Richard Zielinski. Inside post provides ground-saving advantages. Zielinski’s 4 wins in 26 starts over last 21 days indicates hot form.
- Magic Motown (Post 5) – Luis Rivera up for Justin Radosevich. Middle post allows flexibility. Radosevich family’s exceptional training record at Mahoning Valley. Receives weight allowance.
Secondary Choices:
- Judy’s Comet (Post 6) – Brandon Tapara up for Richard Zielinski. Tapara’s hot form combines with Zielinski. Middle-outside post requires moderate tactics. Recent second-place finish suggests form.
- Truth N Soul (Post 7) – Jose Bracho up for Jeffrey Radosevich. Outside post challenged, but Hall of Fame trainer provides confidence.
RACE 9 – Allowance (1 Mile 70 Yards) | 1 Mile 70Y | 3:59 PM | (11 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Third City (Post 4) – Rocco Bowen up for Julie Pappada. Morning line 5-2 favorite. Recent strong second-place finish over course and distance suggests fitness. Middle-inside post provides tactical flexibility.
- Bohemian Style (Post 6) – Alexander Chavez up for Nestor Rivera. Rivera’s 23.5% win rate (hot trainer) significant angle. Middle post allows flexibility.
Secondary Choices:
- Train and Trust (Post 5) – Jose Bracho up for Justin Radosevich. Receives weight allowance as non-winner at route since January 4. Radosevich family excellence. Middle post provides options.
- Deadpan (Post 8) – Luis Rivera up for Anthony Farrior. Multiple recent scratches create reliability concerns despite capable connections.
RACE 10 – Allowance (Non-winners of 4 Races) | 6 Furlongs | 4:27 PM | (9 Runners)
Key Contenders:
- Bigpiclittlepic (Post 5) – Jose Bracho up for Joseph Poole. Four-year-old demonstrates class at allowance level despite 126-pound weight assignment. Middle post allows flexibility. Bracho’s recent form provides confidence.
- Knock Wood (Post 2) – Mauro Cedillo up for Gary Johnson. Inside post provides clear advantage at sprint. Cedillo’s recent win on Reinvest suggests peak form. Seven-year-old brings experience.
Secondary Choices:
- Tempered Dream (Post 8) – Brandon Tapara up for Richard Zielinski. Tapara’s hot form combines with Zielinski’s leading trainer status. Outside post challenging but powerful connections. Receives weight allowance.
- Wasabi Beach (Post 7) – David Haldar up for Susan Anderson. Middle-outside post allows moderate positioning. Receives weight allowance as non-winner since January 4.
KEY TRAINER AND JOCKEY ANGLES
Hot Trainers:
- Richard Zielinski: 4 wins from 26 starts in last 21 days (15.4%) – Seven starters today
- Nestor Rivera: 4 wins from 17 starts in last 21 days (23.5%) – Four starters
- Jeffrey Radosevich: Hall of Fame trainer with 2,000th career winner at MVR (12/12/25)
- Jay Bernardini: Recent hot streak with multiple winners through current meet
- Ivan Vazquez: 33% win rate in last 21 days from limited sample
Hot Jockeys:
- Brandon Tapara: 1,514 career rides with 240 wins (15.85%). Hot combo with Jay Bernardini: 32% win rate
- Mauro Cedillo: Recent remarkable recovery and current hot form with multiple winners
- Luis Rivera: 2,054 career rides with 232 wins and $11.5M in earnings
- Jose Bracho: Apprentice background with solid recent form; son of legendary Agustin Bracho
